Record Turnout and Biden Still Won

[wbrocks67]

So let's talk about the implications of this. There is stuff for both sides to be happy about.

Record turnout on both sides. Biden won the presidency by, what will likely be a pretty big margin in the end (~4.5-5%) despite MEGA GOP turnout.

Meanwhile, it appears House and Senate GOP members benefited from that record GOP turnout.

Judging by the Party ID/lean in state exit polls - though while these exit polls are wonky this year - still appears that the GOP turned out even more DEM voters. Which then makes it easy to see why Dem house members underperformed. Especially if Republicans came out who didn't like Trump but still wanted GOP downballot.

Was this the "ground game" factor? In a normal year with Dems knocking on doors and organizing out and about the last 5-6 months, would Biden's lead be closer to the polls? (national average of +7/8)

Given that there WAS record turnout and GOP did make gains downballot, and Biden was still able to get a sizeable win, it's clear this was a true repudiation of Trumpism, however.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I posted another thread about this, but both sides had the turnout to landslide, they just largely cancelled eachother out.

[wbrocks67]

I posted another thread about this, but both sides had the turnout to landslide, they just largely cancelled eachother out.

Is it quite possible that Biden is ahead also b/c of Independents siding with him?

Likewise, is it likely that Indies went Biden majority up ballot, but GOP majority downballot?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I posted another thread about this, but both sides had the turnout to landslide, they just largely cancelled eachother out.

Is it quite possible that Biden is ahead also b/c of Independents siding with him?

Likewise, is it likely that Indies went Biden majority up ballot, but GOP majority downballot?

Just speaking from a personal perspective, I genuinely thought that I was going to be in the vast minority of D-upballot, R-downballot voters.  

I don't have any concrete explanation for it, but it's possible that there were simply more voters thinking like me than I initially believed: those who didn't want to give Biden a trifecta.  That level of political nuance isn't something that I expected from the general electorate. 

[rosin]

I posted another thread about this, but both sides had the turnout to landslide, they just largely cancelled eachother out.

Is it quite possible that Biden is ahead also b/c of Independents siding with him?

Likewise, is it likely that Indies went Biden majority up ballot, but GOP majority downballot?

Just speaking from a personal perspective, I genuinely thought that I was going to be in the vast minority of D-upballot, R-downballot voters.  

I don't have any concrete explanation for it, but it's possible that there were simply more voters thinking like me than I initially believed: those who didn't want to give Biden a trifecta.  That level of political nuance isn't something that I expected from the general electorate. 

It might also be the case that many of the extra voters, the dems turned out, were mainly anti-Trump-voters and did not care much about voting downballot.

[Del Tachi]

Yeah it's pretty simple:  there's a lot of moderate conservative voters who don't like Trump

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, it seems abundantly clear that this year was mostly a victory for anti-Trump Republicans more than anyone else. If anybody is satisfied, it's them. They were probably most of those Independents that ultimately settled the elections at every level as Democratic and Republican partisan straight-ticket voting canceled each other out. In this case they decided that they wanted Biden to be President but without being able to do anything. As much as I appreciate former Republicans voting for Biden, they were really shortsighted with that calculation (again! Like in 2016 too! What if Trump still won anyway!?). Even the Lincoln Project understand that Trump's Washington Republican lackeys are 50% of the problem!

[Inmate Trump]

Yeah it's pretty simple:  there's a lot of moderate conservative voters who don't like Trump

Then by your judgment, would it be a mistake for the GOP to nominate him again?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah it's pretty simple:  there's a lot of moderate conservative voters who don't like Trump

Then by your judgment, would it be a mistake for the GOP to nominate him again?

It would probably depend how Biden's term goes. I imagine that if the economy recovers and the pandemic ends, Biden, or his successor, can run on successfully cleaning up Trump's mess and reminding Americans about what happened the last time Trump was President and how bad things got. It's possible that Trump's reputation finally gets the due condemnation that it deserves at that point and makes him damaged goods for 2024.

Then again, when the country is in a stable point under a Democratic administration, American voters rarely ever reward Democrats for it and instead elect a Republican who squanders that stability, requiring for a Democrat to succeed them and clean up that mess. It's a cycle that never seems to end.

[Del Tachi]

Yeah it's pretty simple:  there's a lot of moderate conservative voters who don't like Trump

Then by your judgment, would it be a mistake for the GOP to nominate him again?

I certainly think there are more electable Republicans to run in 2024, for sure