PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Mr.Phips]

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor!

How about Wolf for Senate and Fetterman for gov.?

[Mr.Phips]

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.

Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.

SCOTUS isn't striking down ACA

However they rule is a boon to the GOP, gets the issue out of politics and peoples minds thankfully. Same thing happened with gay marriage, the SCOTUS saved the GOP on the issue.

I they rule in favor I agree.  If they rule against it, it brings the health care issue back to the forefront and makes it a huge issue in the midterms.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1347534306110009346?s=20
Fetterman is going for it.

Good he’s the best candidate.

[Mr.Phips]

Maybe a good sign for HR1..... Maybe???

Umm how?

[Mr.Phips]

Parnell only lost to a Dem incumbent by two points in a district that voted to the left of the state in the presidential race when the national House vote was D+3.  Even in an even popular vote environment, he could easily win statewide.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1404861440968757249?s=21

Not surprising, either. Looks like Lamb is the only major player left in question.

Lamb should just run for re-election, unless he somehow knows that his district is going to become basically unwinnable in 2022.

[Mr.Phips]

I wouldn't be surprised if Biden endorses Lamb, assuming he endorses anyone in the primary.

Biden said the Lamb reminds him of his son Beau, which he also said about Buttigieg.

While he is more moderate than Fetterman or Kenyatta, he wouldn't be another Manchin or Sinema. He'd be more like a Booker, Klobuchar, or Gillibrand.

Lamb's voting record is similar to Sinema's and Angus King's. Booker, Gillibrand, and even Biden when he was in Congress were way more progressive than him.



He seems like an unnecessary pain in office with a mixed record electorally having underperformed Biden last year.

Biden won by 3, Lamb won by 2. It was basically the same

If Lamb only won by two in a D+3 year, he’s not winning statewide in what likely will be a R+0 or worse year.  Unless his district gets materially worse for him, he should just run for re-election.  I don’t believe any Dem can win the PA Senate seat in 2022.  No need to throw away a House seat for that.  Dems have nothing to lose with Fetterman.

[Mr.Phips]

I wouldn't be surprised if Biden endorses Lamb, assuming he endorses anyone in the primary.

Biden said the Lamb reminds him of his son Beau, which he also said about Buttigieg.

While he is more moderate than Fetterman or Kenyatta, he wouldn't be another Manchin or Sinema. He'd be more like a Booker, Klobuchar, or Gillibrand.

Lamb's voting record is similar to Sinema's and Angus King's. Booker, Gillibrand, and even Biden when he was in Congress were way more progressive than him.



He seems like an unnecessary pain in office with a mixed record electorally having underperformed Biden last year.

Biden won by 3, Lamb won by 2. It was basically the same

If Lamb only won by two in a D+3 year, he’s not winning statewide in what likely will be a R+0 or worse year.  Unless his district gets materially worse for him, he should just run for re-election.  I don’t believe any Dem can win the PA Senate seat in 2022.  No need to throw away a House seat for that.  Dems have nothing to lose with Fetterman.

Can't really extrapolate his district performance to the entire state.

You can’t.  I’m just saying that his performance in 2020 does not indicate that he has some magic power that can allow him to defy gravity in a statewide race in what is likely to be at least a slightly Republican year.

[Mr.Phips]

I wouldn't be surprised if Biden endorses Lamb, assuming he endorses anyone in the primary.

Biden said the Lamb reminds him of his son Beau, which he also said about Buttigieg.

While he is more moderate than Fetterman or Kenyatta, he wouldn't be another Manchin or Sinema. He'd be more like a Booker, Klobuchar, or Gillibrand.

Lamb's voting record is similar to Sinema's and Angus King's. Booker, Gillibrand, and even Biden when he was in Congress were way more progressive than him.



He seems like an unnecessary pain in office with a mixed record electorally having underperformed Biden last year.

Biden won by 3, Lamb won by 2. It was basically the same

If Lamb only won by two in a D+3 year, he’s not winning statewide in what likely will be a R+0 or worse year.  Unless his district gets materially worse for him, he should just run for re-election.  I don’t believe any Dem can win the PA Senate seat in 2022.  No need to throw away a House seat for that.  Dems have nothing to lose with Fetterman.

Can't really extrapolate his district performance to the entire state.

You can’t.  I’m just saying that his performance in 2020 does not indicate that he has some magic power that can allow him to defy gravity in a statewide race in what is likely to be at least a slightly Republican year.

His performances in 2018 and especially the special election were pretty impressive

Both in a good Dem environment. 

[Mr.Phips]

Apparently Lamb wants to throw away his career.

[Mr.Phips]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

I honestly don't get the Cartwright statewide thing. Yeah, he works for his district, but in a race like this, someone like him and Lamb would be interchangeable to the regular average person.

I agree. Cartwright would be a perfect PA statewide candidate. He has views quite similar to Casey, and he’s quite popular. His district actually is somewhat similar to PA as a whole, so Cartwright would be a good statewide candidate. But Fetterman doesn’t have any real strengths,

I don’t think Cartwright could win a statewide primary.

[Mr.Phips]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

Some people who liked Lamb back then, and who thought he would be a great candidate for higher office back then do not like Lamb anymore because his 2020 re-election margin in his Congressional District was unambiguously pathetic. I myself am among these people.

Lamb wasn’t winning statewide in 2022 and he should have known that last year.  He should have just run for re-election.  Now his career is probably over.  Throw him in the same bucket as Brad Ellsworth, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, and Bruce Braley of Democrats who ran for statewide races they were never going to win in bad years for Democrats.

[Mr.Phips]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

Some people who liked Lamb back then, and who thought he would be a great candidate for higher office back then do not like Lamb anymore because his 2020 re-election margin in his Congressional District was unambiguously pathetic. I myself am among these people.

Lamb wasn’t winning statewide in 2022 and he should have known that last year.  He should have just run for re-election.  Now his career is probably over.  Throw him in the same bucket as Brad Ellsworth, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, and Bruce Braley of Democrats who ran for statewide races they were never going to win in bad years for Democrats.

Couldn't he just make a comeback in 2024 by running for the House again? Wouldn't be the first congressman to return after a failed senate bid.

None of the Dems mentioned above ended up making a comeback by running for their old House seats.

[Mr.Phips]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

Some people who liked Lamb back then, and who thought he would be a great candidate for higher office back then do not like Lamb anymore because his 2020 re-election margin in his Congressional District was unambiguously pathetic. I myself am among these people.

Lamb wasn’t winning statewide in 2022 and he should have known that last year.  He should have just run for re-election.  Now his career is probably over.  Throw him in the same bucket as Brad Ellsworth, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, and Bruce Braley of Democrats who ran for statewide races they were never going to win in bad years for Democrats.

Lamb, if he is the nominee (which looks unlikely at this point), won't lose by as much as they did, but it would still be a clear loss.

Still, like them, he would be a Democrat who throw away a House seat for a Senate run in a year where a Democrat clearly can’t win a senate race.  I knew this back in July 2021 when he got in.  Not sure why he and others didn’t know this based on midterm election history. 

[Mr.Phips]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

Some people who liked Lamb back then, and who thought he would be a great candidate for higher office back then do not like Lamb anymore because his 2020 re-election margin in his Congressional District was unambiguously pathetic. I myself am among these people.

Lamb wasn’t winning statewide in 2022 and he should have known that last year.  He should have just run for re-election.  Now his career is probably over.  Throw him in the same bucket as Brad Ellsworth, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, and Bruce Braley of Democrats who ran for statewide races they were never going to win in bad years for Democrats.

Lamb, if he is the nominee (which looks unlikely at this point), won't lose by as much as they did, but it would still be a clear loss.

Still, like them, he would be a Democrat who throw away a House seat for a Senate run in a year where a Democrat clearly can’t win a senate race.  I knew this back in July 2021 when he got in.  Not sure why he and others didn’t know this based on midterm election history. 

You're right, but ambitious politicians often let the facts get ahead of them.

Nobody at the DCCC met with him and explained this to him?

[Mr.Phips]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

Some people who liked Lamb back then, and who thought he would be a great candidate for higher office back then do not like Lamb anymore because his 2020 re-election margin in his Congressional District was unambiguously pathetic. I myself am among these people.

Lamb wasn’t winning statewide in 2022 and he should have known that last year.  He should have just run for re-election.  Now his career is probably over.  Throw him in the same bucket as Brad Ellsworth, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, and Bruce Braley of Democrats who ran for statewide races they were never going to win in bad years for Democrats.

Lamb, if he is the nominee (which looks unlikely at this point), won't lose by as much as they did, but it would still be a clear loss.

Still, like them, he would be a Democrat who throw away a House seat for a Senate run in a year where a Democrat clearly can’t win a senate race.  I knew this back in July 2021 when he got in.  Not sure why he and others didn’t know this based on midterm election history. 

You're right, but ambitious politicians often let the facts get ahead of them.

Nobody at the DCCC met with him and explained this to him?

I'm assuming not.

Wouldn’t surprise me if the DCCC failed to do their job.

[Mr.Phips]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

Some people who liked Lamb back then, and who thought he would be a great candidate for higher office back then do not like Lamb anymore because his 2020 re-election margin in his Congressional District was unambiguously pathetic. I myself am among these people.

Lamb wasn’t winning statewide in 2022 and he should have known that last year.  He should have just run for re-election.  Now his career is probably over.  Throw him in the same bucket as Brad Ellsworth, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, and Bruce Braley of Democrats who ran for statewide races they were never going to win in bad years for Democrats.

To be fair to Ellsworth and Melancon, their house seats were gone once they flipped. And Braley and Hodes both did far worse than they should have in those senate races.

Ellsworth may have been able to hold his seat even in 2010.