PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

When the center loses a primary, the centrists throw a six-month temper tantrum about how their candidate was the better candidate and how bland centrism would have won. They undermine the Democratic nominee, they call for the overturning of the primary, and they do everything they can to weaken the progressive. Sometimes, they even run a spoiler campaign!

Do you have to give this overdramatic speech every time a single Atlas user says that Lamb might have done better? EJ24's post was silly, but the vast majority of "the centrists" are still completely behind Fetterman. This is his worst poll in ages and he's still up 2 and has 86% support from the party. If he does lose (which I neither want nor expect to happen!), it won't be because centrists abandoned him.

I'll stop giving it when the Lamb simps take their L like adults and stop undermining Fetterman.  From India Walton to Elizabeth Fiedler to Kara Eastman to Fetterman, this happens commonly offline as it does online. It's not a matter of opinion - it's an open attempt to sow disunity and undermine a progressive's campaign. I don't say this to be "overdramatic" or "hyperbolic". I say it because it's true.

But then again I don't expect this type of maturity from the one user who rushes to cheer on every personal attack levied against a progressive.

[wbrocks67]

Should note that the 538 average does not include Monmouth from two weeks ago either, which was essentially 48-43, lining up with Suffolk.

Hopefully we get at least a Fox poll tomorrow or Thursday.

[wbrocks67]

With 3 weeks out, I would still like to see Fetterman and Shapiro appearing more together at big rally type events. Would think that would be on the books for the closing weeks.

Shapiro has a big pro-choice rally in Philly this Saturday; I would think Fetterman would be there to join him, but it doesn't look like it... yet

[Sestak]

Should note that the 538 average does not include Monmouth from two weeks ago either, which was essentially 48-43, lining up with Suffolk.

Hopefully we get at least a Fox poll tomorrow or Thursday.

538 does not include Monmouth because Monmouth did not poll the race. They publicly do not present their numbers as a topline; it would be incorrect to tabulate them as such.

[wbrocks67]

Should note that the 538 average does not include Monmouth from two weeks ago either, which was essentially 48-43, lining up with Suffolk.

Hopefully we get at least a Fox poll tomorrow or Thursday.

538 does not include Monmouth because Monmouth did not poll the race. They publicly do not present their numbers as a topline; it would be incorrect to tabulate them as such.

Yes, I know that. Just saying, when we're talking about the figures from this race, it wasn't a direct poll, but still a data point to add in there since it occured in October.

[kwabbit]

I think the key point here is that Fetterman has oscillated between 47-50 in the average. He's gotten the bigger range, getting 45's but also 47's, 49s, and even 50+ a few times. Yet Oz is still stuck at 42-43 in the average as he was a month ago.

Over the last seven polls, excluding Center Street, Oz’s vote share has both the larger range and larger variance. If anything, it would be more accurate to say that Fetterman’s vote share is stagnant and Oz’s share varies/grows. It’s also inaccurate to imply that Fetterman is reaching levels that Oz can’t reach. The majority of recent polls have Fetterman at 45%. Oz got above that in this very poll.

Talking about any candidate being stuck is lazy. Both candidates’ support is fluid. Fetterman leads by a few points, and the vote share is more of a function of the amount of undecideds than on any candidate being ‘stuck’.

[wbrocks67]

I think the key point here is that Fetterman has oscillated between 47-50 in the average. He's gotten the bigger range, getting 45's but also 47's, 49s, and even 50+ a few times. Yet Oz is still stuck at 42-43 in the average as he was a month ago.

Over the last seven polls, excluding Center Street, Oz’s vote share has both the larger range and larger variance. If anything, it would be more accurate to say that Fetterman’s vote share is stagnant and Oz’s share varies/grows. It’s also inaccurate to imply that Fetterman is reaching levels that Oz can’t reach. The majority of recent polls have Fetterman at 45%. Oz got above that in this very poll.

Talking about any candidate being stuck is lazy. Both candidates’ support is fluid. Fetterman leads by a few points, and the vote share is more of a function of the amount of undecideds than on any candidate being ‘stuck’.

How so? Fetterman was 48% in this very poll, a level that Oz has *never* reached - in any poll.

[jamestroll]

Why do Republicans hate stutterers ?

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

When the center loses a primary, the centrists throw a six-month temper tantrum about how their candidate was the better candidate and how bland centrism would have won. They undermine the Democratic nominee, they call for the overturning of the primary, and they do everything they can to weaken the progressive. Sometimes, they even run a spoiler campaign!

Do you have to give this overdramatic speech every time a single Atlas user says that Lamb might have done better? EJ24's post was silly, but the vast majority of "the centrists" are still completely behind Fetterman. This is his worst poll in ages and he's still up 2 and has 86% support from the party. If he does lose (which I neither want nor expect to happen!), it won't be because centrists abandoned him.

I'll stop giving it when the Lamb simps take their L like adults and stop undermining Fetterman.  From India Walton to Elizabeth Fiedler to Kara Eastman to Fetterman, this happens commonly offline as it does online. It's not a matter of opinion - it's an open attempt to sow disunity and undermine a progressive's campaign. I don't say this to be "overdramatic" or "hyperbolic". I say it because it's true.

But then again I don't expect this type of maturity from the one user who rushes to cheer on every personal attack levied against a progressive.

I'm going to assume the maturity jab was directed at EJ24, because I'm genuinely not sure what you'd be referring to if you meant me. I hardly comment on intraparty spats much.

I'm not going to deny that a few centrists do the things you say, but it seems silly to deride all centrists and act like there's some big centrist vs. progressive divide in this race just because EJ24 made a stupid comment. I don't think he's representative of any significant group of Lamb dead enders. Are there any mainstream Democrats who aren't giving Fetterman their total support and endorsement in this race? Given Fetterman's current polling he's got the vast majority of Democrats, both centrist and progressive behind him. Heck, given his landslide victory in the primary I'd imagine that he carried self-identified moderates back then too. Party unity has been pretty strong in this race.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Why do Republicans hate stutterers ?

Because they hate everyone different than them.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One question I have is what has Oz specifically done to see such a big boost in favorability? I get the narrative that attacks on Fetterman for being a radical Democrat who defunds the police and generally tying him to Biden and whatever may have slightly lowered Fetterman's favorability, but if anything Oz has jsut had more problems that expose his flaws as person such as the puppies.

[Roll Roons]

One question I have is what has Oz specifically done to see such a big boost in favorability? I get the narrative that attacks on Fetterman for being a radical Democrat who defunds the police and generally tying him to Biden and whatever may have slightly lowered Fetterman's favorability, but if anything Oz has jsut had more problems that expose his flaws as person such as the puppies.

I think he's had time to consolidate the Republican base after the primary. Frankly, he's very lucky it was in May and not August.

[Calthrina950]

One question I have is what has Oz specifically done to see such a big boost in favorability? I get the narrative that attacks on Fetterman for being a radical Democrat who defunds the police and generally tying him to Biden and whatever may have slightly lowered Fetterman's favorability, but if anything Oz has jsut had more problems that expose his flaws as person such as the puppies.

I think he's had time to consolidate the Republican base after the primary. Frankly, he's very lucky it was in May and not August.

Oz has been campaigning vigorously over the past several months. That cannot be denied. He's traveled across the state and has engaged directly with voters.

[wbrocks67]

The favorability really comes mostly from Republicans. They've coalesced around him, as we figured.

In the AARP poll, his net approval among GOP was only +15 in June. It's +44 now.

Problem for Oz is that 22% of GOP still are unfavorable of him, leading him to a lot of "soft support", like Pollster had mentioned in the last few pages.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's not time for Team Fetterman to hit the panic button.  BUT (and I'm sure wbrocks will disagree with me), Team Oz has been much better in the ad game across the last month or so in terms of sheer volume. 

IOW, I'm still seeing what I'd estimate to be a 5:1 ratio anti-Fetterman ads to anti-Oz ads. 

[wbrocks67]

I think this is the first time I've seen Fetterman use the clip of Oz with Trump. Surprised it hasn't been more prevalent.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1582739279796895745

[wbrocks67]

It's not time for Team Fetterman to hit the panic button.  BUT (and I'm sure wbrocks will disagree with me), Team Oz has been much better in the ad game across the last month or so in terms of sheer volume. 

IOW, I'm still seeing what I'd estimate to be a 5:1 ratio anti-Fetterman ads to anti-Oz ads. 

I honestly can't really say, I only watch cable in small bits if I'm out somewhere or if I'm at my parents house randomly, since I don't have cable. When I was out a few times in the past few weeks or at the gym recently, it seemed to be much more at parity (I was seeing the Senate Majority PAC ads and the Fetterman cop ad quite a bit), but not sure if that's changed.

If that's the case, I don't understand why, since Democrats have been outspending GOP recently by quite a bit, and should be getting better GRP, since most of Oz's money is coming from outside groups.

I will say apparently the Senate Majority PAC puppy ad ran quite a bit last week during the Phillies games from what I can tell.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think this is the first time I've seen Fetterman use the clip of Oz with Trump. Surprised it hasn't been more prevalent.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1582739279796895745

Because just using this line of attack would feed the media narrative Dems' only sellingpoint is "orange man bad". I think Fetterman has handled this reasonably well. Attack Oz as elitist and promote popular stances he's taking such as minimum wage, jobs and abortion. You can use Trump in attack ads from here and there, just don't focus on him too much.

[wbrocks67]

agreed - I think it works here in this case, since the argument is Oz is too extreme on the issues. Using Trump to sew that together helps that narrative.

[wbrocks67]

There goes another GOP talking point

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1582742471276384258

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1582727447774396417

[wbrocks67]

That girl makes me want to claw my eyes out.

Not just that she believes Oz is moderate (or also cares about abortion rights but doesn't seem to know where he stands), but the simple fact that she chose her candidates because "variety" to "switch it up a little bit"

I just

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Nothing will ever beat the 2020 Iowa Caucus voter whose first choice was Pete Buttigieg because she wanted universal healthcare, and who was going to vote for Trump if anyone else was the nominee.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Nothing will ever beat the 2020 Iowa Caucus voter whose first choice was Pete Buttigieg because she wanted universal healthcare, and who was going to vote for Trump if anyone else was the nominee.

Or the lady who caucused for Pete and then wanted her vote back when she found out he was gay that day

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1582727447774396417

These voters are going to cost the Democrats next month. I thought that the man in Ohio was particularly reasonable, and he's actually quite similar to me. He identifies with Ryan more, in terms of temperament and background, and doesn't like Vance on a personal level, but he does not approve of the Biden Administration and aligns with Vance more on policy. And I certainly understand why the woman is voting the way she does.

She is concerned about inflation and the economy, and less so about abortion (although it's obvious that she's pro-choice). Polls have indicated that this is true for many other women, who have trended towards Republicans in recent weeks. What these voters show is that the American electorate has a more nuanced view of the two parties than many on this forum do, and are motivated more by issues that directly impact them than issues that don't. This has always been true.