PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Fun fact: if Oz is elected, he will be the first Muslim ever elected to the United States Senate.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Oz is a muslim and he's confirmed that he's still a practising one, The Dem candidate might not be able to attack that directly but a PAC will definitely use it, might reduce republican entuhisasm.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

I just don't get Oz.  Why did he want to do this?  Doesn't he have millions and all that fame and fortune from his work in television?  He just doesn't seem like the kind of person that would thrive in this very partisan, bitter environment, and he's aligning himself with the opposite kinds of people (rage-filled, culture war types) that made him famous.

I think he too is an awful fit for PA.  He should have just run in NJ.

I'm behind Fetterman 100%.  He actually feels like PA to me and should be representing it in the Senate.  Whether or not he can beat the terrible odds against being a D in a very anti-D year, I don't know.

[Roll Roons]

Whether or not he can beat the terrible odds against being a D in a very anti-D year, I don't know.

FWIW, both parties clearly consider this seat to be in play. I'd still narrowly bet on the Republican no matter who the nominees on both sides are (neither Oz nor McCormick is the disaster that Parnell would have been), but it's far from a done deal and it'll likely still be relatively close in the end.

[Sub Jero]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikeallen/status/1513174406289371142?cxt=HHwWjMC5od-G...

[Unelectable Bystander]

Fun fact: if Oz is elected, he will be the first Muslim ever elected to the United States Senate.

Can you imagine if this was true of the leading Dem candidate in a swing state? The media would never let anybody hear the end of it. But as a republican? Not a word

[wbrocks67]

McCormick was a stronger GE candidate than Trump. He doesn't excite the MAGA crowd as much but would've been a better fit for the moderate crowd (even though he's not moderate at all, just better at concealing the crazy than the others)

Oz is clearly struggling in the primary despite spending tens of millions of dollars, but this is probably enough to send him over the edge. Oz has disparaged his image though, so let's not act like he's a great fit for the GE.

I disagree. I think he can appeal to suburbanite women who remember him as the TV guy who Oprah likes.
And it's not like Oz is running a far-right campaign, so fair his campaign seems focused on healthcare and energy.

Problem is that Oz has ruined that image, with the last year of his far-right campaign and him being attached to Trump now. Not gonna do well with suburban women at this point, and his campaign *has* been far-right. The "issues" he's been raising since he started his campaign have  not just been "healthcare" and "energy"

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

McCormick was a stronger GE candidate than Trump. He doesn't excite the MAGA crowd as much but would've been a better fit for the moderate crowd (even though he's not moderate at all, just better at concealing the crazy than the others)

Oz is clearly struggling in the primary despite spending tens of millions of dollars, but this is probably enough to send him over the edge. Oz has disparaged his image though, so let's not act like he's a great fit for the GE.

I disagree. I think he can appeal to suburbanite women who remember him as the TV guy who Oprah likes.
And it's not like Oz is running a far-right campaign, so fair his campaign seems focused on healthcare and energy.

Problem is that Oz has ruined that image, with the last year of his far-right campaign and him being attached to Trump now. Not gonna do well with suburban women at this point, and his campaign *has* been far-right. The "issues" he's been raising since he started his campaign have  not just been "healthcare" and "energy"

Lol he's spouted generic Republican talking points. Show me one thing he's said/done that is more far-right then your average Republican candidate. And being endorsed by Trump does not mean he can't do above average with suburbanites.

[ProgressiveModerate]

McCormick was a stronger GE candidate than Trump. He doesn't excite the MAGA crowd as much but would've been a better fit for the moderate crowd (even though he's not moderate at all, just better at concealing the crazy than the others)

Oz is clearly struggling in the primary despite spending tens of millions of dollars, but this is probably enough to send him over the edge. Oz has disparaged his image though, so let's not act like he's a great fit for the GE.

I disagree. I think he can appeal to suburbanite women who remember him as the TV guy who Oprah likes.
And it's not like Oz is running a far-right campaign, so fair his campaign seems focused on healthcare and energy.

Problem is that Oz has ruined that image, with the last year of his far-right campaign and him being attached to Trump now. Not gonna do well with suburban women at this point, and his campaign *has* been far-right. The "issues" he's been raising since he started his campaign have  not just been "healthcare" and "energy"

Lol he's spouted generic Republican talking points. Show me one thing he's said/done that is more far-right then your average Republican candidate. And being endorsed by Trump does not mean he can't do above average with suburbanites.

I think this is less a question of Oz specifically but more the national Republican Party.

The Republican's midterm strategy is unique is overall they have no even tried to give the illusion of being moderate, but as a party have continued to run on a lot of the same talking points they had in 2020. Oz himself isn't uniquely far right for a Republican but the Republican Party is unique in it's strategy of almost purely riling up the base rather than working to actually peel off unsatisfied or disappointed Dem voters who don't like the Republican's rhetoric.

Ultimatley, yes, they aren't going to be getting Romney numbers in Chester County in 2022 pretty much no matter what, but that's not the coalition their counting on to win. They're counting on massive Trump-level rural margins and turnout differentials to hand them the state, with some gains made in Dem-leaning WWC areas and minority heavy communities largely by activating previously unactive voters.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't understand why people think Oz is a net-negative candidate. He isn't great, but he has positive name recognition from his show, and he isn't running like a far-right winger. This is only a Biden+1 state up in a red wave year, and Trump even won it in 2016. Not to mention he will probably be facing Fetterman who is quite progressive.

[wbrocks67]

I don't understand why people think Oz is a net-negative candidate. He isn't great, but he has positive name recognition from his show, and he isn't running like a far-right winger. This is only a Biden+1 state up in a red wave year, and Trump even won it in 2016. Not to mention he will probably be facing Fetterman who is quite progressive.

Oz has barely been able to get 20%+ in most polls despite spending tens of millions of dollars in ads in 2022. I think that says a lot about how he is perceived in this campaign.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I don't understand why people think Oz is a net-negative candidate. He isn't great, but he has positive name recognition from his show, and he isn't running like a far-right winger. This is only a Biden+1 state up in a red wave year, and Trump even won it in 2016. Not to mention he will probably be facing Fetterman who is quite progressive.

Oz has barely been able to get 20%+ in most polls despite spending tens of millions of dollars in ads in 2022. I think that says a lot about how he is perceived in this campaign.

The exact same applies to McCormick.

[wbrocks67]

I don't understand why people think Oz is a net-negative candidate. He isn't great, but he has positive name recognition from his show, and he isn't running like a far-right winger. This is only a Biden+1 state up in a red wave year, and Trump even won it in 2016. Not to mention he will probably be facing Fetterman who is quite progressive.

Oz has barely been able to get 20%+ in most polls despite spending tens of millions of dollars in ads in 2022. I think that says a lot about how he is perceived in this campaign.

The exact same applies to McCormick.

Yes, but McCormick is a total unknown and he has still managed to top Oz. My point being that Oz doesn't have as much positive name rec as people think. He's a known commodity, and it's possible his far-right turn is turning more people off at this point in the general electorate.

Pretty sure one of those GOP polls in the past few months also had his favorability nearly underwater even with GOP voters.

[LabourJersey]

I just don't get Oz.  Why did he want to do this?  Doesn't he have millions and all that fame and fortune from his work in television?  He just doesn't seem like the kind of person that would thrive in this very partisan, bitter environment, and he's aligning himself with the opposite kinds of people (rage-filled, culture war types) that made him famous.

I think he too is an awful fit for PA.  He should have just run in NJ.

I'm behind Fetterman 100%.  He actually feels like PA to me and should be representing it in the Senate.  Whether or not he can beat the terrible odds against being a D in a very anti-D year, I don't know.

He is basically still a resident of NJ, but the key point is that he would never win a Senate race in New Jersey as a Republican. I suppose he could be competitive in, say NJ-05 against Gottheimer but Oz obviously feels he deserves the status of a Senator.

[sting in the rafters]

Its a pretty safe bet 85-90% of those who vote in the GOP primary will be Trump voters. Oz will cost the GOP in SEPA, but just afraid Oz wins because of VA/NJ-GOV's indications of Appalachian turnout. Remember, Oz wants to build the wall. For a lot of the older Dems Trump brought into the GOP, that's enough.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't understand why people think Oz is a net-negative candidate. He isn't great, but he has positive name recognition from his show, and he isn't running like a far-right winger. This is only a Biden+1 state up in a red wave year, and Trump even won it in 2016. Not to mention he will probably be facing Fetterman who is quite progressive.

People who think he's far-right should see the online Nat-cons reaction to Trump's endorsement. They're not happy and calling Oz a RINO. Even though Trump had so many flip flops and past statements that could be considered "liberal" too. Ted Cruz tried to take advantage of that stuff and it completely failed. I expect Dave McCormick to try and fail in a similar way even though he arguably has even more past baggage.

Oz will likely be both the GOP candidate and the next Senator. All the takes about "bad candidates" for literally every swing state Republican is typical of this community. If he wins by a lot, they'll pretend like they never said it or that Fetterman was the bad candidate.

[Lief 🗽]

Time to move this race to Safe R?
https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1513579838342377473?s=21

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Time to move this race to Safe R?
https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1513579838342377473?s=21

Lol you must be dreaming this race isn't safe R

Do you know where we're gonna lose H seats from NC, OH, GA, TX and FL not any blue states, GA is a Runoff state not a blue statess so it's a purple state

Why are we gonna lose red states because Sinema blocked Voting Rights there is zero Voter Suppression in blue STATES

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/laurasgoldman/status/1513579965882814470

Lol Lamb is 4th with Black voters in a 3-person race?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/laurasgoldman/status/1513579965882814470

Lol Lamb is 4th with Black voters in a 3-person race?

Never heard of GBAO

[Xing]

I’m still going to guess that McCormick wins the primary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/laurasgoldman/status/1513579965882814470
Lol Lamb is 4th with Black voters in a 3-person race?

I have to say if Fetterman is running a "dumpster fire" of a campaign (because he once wore shorts in public or something), then what does it say about Lamb's campaign that he's behind by 25 points?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/laurasgoldman/status/1513579965882814470
Lol Lamb is 4th with Black voters in a 3-person race?

Never heard of GBAO

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/gbao

Doesn't look like a great pollster to put it mildly, but both Fetterman and Lamb's campaigns were claiming Fetterman had a 30 point lead just a few weeks ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Hassan poll proves and the AZ poll proves that's it's not gonna be a red wave Kelly has 23M in the bank and leads 50/46 the R nut map iis demolished and Fetterman and Lamb were leading Oz by 3/9 pts

Users still think AZ is Lean R every poll comes out Kelly ahead

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1513587096644210689

The Copium Tour continues!

Time to move this race to Safe R?
https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1513579838342377473?s=21

No surprise that the failing Philadelphia machine, which tried to coronate Cigna Conor over Malcolm Kenyatta, is virtue signaling about COVID at the expense of the ticket. They can't even rig a race right!