PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I know so many people have made this joke, but as a New Jerseyan, I am honored that Pennsylvania wants to give us an extra Senator, at their expense.

If Pennsylvania can have a third senator for almost forty years, I don't see why New Jersey can't.

[H. Ross Peron]

Time for the Guru Ad again:

https://www.nytimes.com/video/weekinreview/1194817112035/the-guru-ad.html

[Not Me, Us]

I know so many people have made this joke, but as a New Jerseyan, I am honored that Pennsylvania wants to give us an extra Senator, at their expense.

If Pennsylvania can have a third senator for almost forty years, I don't see why New Jersey can't.

If Dr. Oz is in the Senate for 40 years I think I'll have an aneurysm.

[H. Ross Peron]

Oz could beat Fetterman and peel off Black voters, a lot of Black people watch his show and if Fetterman's scandal with the gun and the Black jogger emerges again, Fetterman could be in a lot of problems.

For the love of all that is holy, stop making everything about race.

Race is a big deal in this country. Deal with it or get lost.

You are mentally disabled if you think any significant number of black voters will vote Oz lmao. Black voters are very similar to Evangelicals-they are willing to tolerate quite a lot from the party nominee if he takes a firm stance on certain issues.

[Morning in Atlas]

The only reasons liberals make the Randy Bryce comparison is because of his image. John Fetterman has actually won the races he had run in in the past, unlike Bryce. He was a perennial, bad candidate who happened to get noticed because of the district he was running in.

The DAE LE IRONSTACHE XD comparison is the laziest piece of political analysis I've seen recently, and that's coming from someone who's bearish on Fetterman's appeal with the WWC.

[Calthrina950]

You are going to see more celebrities and athletes run for office. They have political views like the rest of us, they pay income taxes like the rest of us, they vote, so why can't they have a say, as long as they know what they are talking about.

Lawyers and politicians have been running for so long and a lot of people feel they have not gained anything from them being in office.

Oz could beat Fetterman and peel off Black voters, a lot of Black people watch his show and if Fetterman's scandal with the gun and the Black jogger emerges again, Fetterman could be in a lot of problems.

I'm not going to comment on the rest of this, but the bolded is true. I've caught a few episodes of The Dr. Oz Show, and black people definitely love his program.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Dr Oz vs Dr Fauci

Better yet:

Dr. Oz vs. Dr. Phil vs. Dr Fauci

[Alben Barkley]

SAFE OZ!

Now that Parnell is out, Trump will endorse Oz (mark my words), and hell he probably could have won the nomination even without it. He’s a lock.

As for the general, both Fetterman and Lamb have strengths and weaknesses against a candidate like Oz. But none of it will matter due to the fact that 2022 will be a massive red wave and Oz will win on the strength of massive support from the key swing voters: Suburban white women. So-called “progressives” and “Blue Dogs” can bicker all they want over which of their failed candidates would have lost by a point or so less, but it doesn’t matter.

Dread it.

Run from it.

Senator Oz arrives all the same.

[Alben Barkley]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

Republicans actually love nominating candidates whose demographics don’t seem to fit with expectations (see: Larry Elder, John James, and many more) precisely so they can have plausible deniability to deflect allegations of bigotry. And it doesn’t hurt that Oz “looks” fairly white, has a name that doesn’t “sound Muslim,” has a white Christian wife, and doesn’t apparently take the religion very seriously. No one will care any more than they cared that Trump was an atheist philanderer. Might be a plus if anything to “troll the libs” by saying “Ee, WE have Muslim support TOO!”

[SnowLabrador]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

Republicans actually love nominating candidates whose demographics don’t seem to fit with expectations (see: Larry Elder, John James, and many more) precisely so they can have plausible deniability to deflect allegations of bigotry. And it doesn’t hurt that Oz “looks” fairly white, has a name that doesn’t “sound Muslim,” has a white Christian wife, and doesn’t apparently take the religion very seriously. No one will care any more than they cared that Trump was an atheist philanderer. Might be a plus if anything to “troll the libs” by saying “Ee, WE have Muslim support TOO!”

I don't think Trump's an atheist, but it does seem like he's not as devout as he claimed to be during his campaigns. That being said, this thread is about Oz, so I'll just say: I don't think his religious affiliation matters too much electorally. It's not 1960 anymore.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

Republicans actually love nominating candidates whose demographics don’t seem to fit with expectations (see: Larry Elder, John James, and many more) precisely so they can have plausible deniability to deflect allegations of bigotry. And it doesn’t hurt that Oz “looks” fairly white, has a name that doesn’t “sound Muslim,” has a white Christian wife, and doesn’t apparently take the religion very seriously. No one will care any more than they cared that Trump was an atheist philanderer. Might be a plus if anything to “troll the libs” by saying “Ee, WE have Muslim support TOO!”

I don't think Trump's an atheist, but it does seem like he's not as devout as he claimed to be during his campaigns. That being said, this thread is about Oz, so I'll just say: I don't think his religious affiliation matters too much electorally. It's not 1960 anymore.

Trump's clearly an atheist, given his personal life, how he is weirded out by the very religious, how he has never talked about God before his presidential run and the fact that he's a New York billionaire playboy.

[LabourJersey]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

Republicans actually love nominating candidates whose demographics don’t seem to fit with expectations (see: Larry Elder, John James, and many more) precisely so they can have plausible deniability to deflect allegations of bigotry. And it doesn’t hurt that Oz “looks” fairly white, has a name that doesn’t “sound Muslim,” has a white Christian wife, and doesn’t apparently take the religion very seriously. No one will care any more than they cared that Trump was an atheist philanderer. Might be a plus if anything to “troll the libs” by saying “Ee, WE have Muslim support TOO!”

But the reason why conservative base voters took to Trump, Larry Elder, Tim Scott, John James etc. was because they had one of 2 qualities: 1) they were actual supporters of staunch conservatives values, or 2) promised to appoint GOP judges/policies (in the case of Trump).

I watched the video and Oz doesn't seem to be portraying himself as a true-blue conservative Trump guy: his video seems far more suited for a general election message than a primary. And he's a wild card: it's unclear exactly what he believes in (which goes both ways). There are going to be people running against him in the primary, all to his right.

[Lief 🗽]

This is incredible. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up running away with it.
https://twitter.com/droz/status/1467238027017822213?s=21

[Ferguson97]

Sucks for John Fetterman that his legacy will be "the guy who lost to Dr. Oz"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sucks for John Fetterman that his legacy will be "the guy who lost to Dr. Oz"

Let's wait til a poll

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pollsters-warning-democrats-problem-125336973.html


A D pollster don't take polls as rosy for D's anymore we have a problem


Biden is at 45/51 percent and CCM is losing


I am not Donating to Ds anymore I am paying for tests at school and they refuse to give another stimulus check, they are being outraised by Rs, but I jumped on you too  quickly on Ryan, he is gonna lose, Vance is gonna be the next Senator OH

Manchin and Sinema are silly not to pass VR if we lose in 22, they both lose in 24 she only beat Martha McSally

[BigSerg]

Former President Donald Trump reportedly believes TV host Dr. Mehmet Oz has a chance in the Pennsylvania Senate primary, Politico reports, per a source close to the ex-president.

Trump has apparently been "complimentary" of the television doctor, and likes that Oz is "in the mainstream of America and that he had a ton of face time with voters, similar to The Apprentice," the source told Politico. He's also into the fact that Oz is "omnipresent in people's houses through their television." Sounds like Trump sees a bit of himself in the medical professional.

https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1007723/trump-is-apparently-a-fan-of-dr-ozs-senate-candidacy

[ElectionsGuy]

If he does, it makes it very likely he'll be the nominee, given the lackluster field.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is definitely looking similar to Herschel Walker. I wonder if McCormick reconsiders and chooses to take on Casey instead.

[wbrocks67]

This is incredible. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up running away with it.
https://twitter.com/droz/status/1467238027017822213?s=21

I had the exact opposite reaction. My initial reaction to Oz running was that he would likely run away with the primary, but the first couple days of his candidacy seem like a total mess. His "message" is completely generic and terrible (just like that tweet, it's like Marianne Williamson bad) and he's done a few local PA interviews where he can't even say what the #1 issue Pennsylvanians are dealing with. He's coming off like a total out of touch carpetbagger. He's still likely to win the primary bc of name recognition, but I'm starting to feel a little better about Dems chances here. Oz is a total empty suit.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

This is incredible. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up running away with it.
https://twitter.com/droz/status/1467238027017822213?s=21

I had the exact opposite reaction. My initial reaction to Oz running was that he would likely run away with the primary, but the first couple days of his candidacy seem like a total mess. His "message" is completely generic and terrible (just like that tweet, it's like Marianne Williamson bad) and he's done a few local PA interviews where he can't even say what the #1 issue Pennsylvanians are dealing with. He's coming off like a total out of touch carpetbagger. He's still likely to win the primary bc of name recognition, but I'm starting to feel a little better about Dems chances here. Oz is a total empty suit.

In other words, he's going to cure cancer, create world peace, and make everyday full of rainbows, lollipops, and sunshine.  And vote with Don the Con 100% of the time.

[kwabbit]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

Republicans actually love nominating candidates whose demographics don’t seem to fit with expectations (see: Larry Elder, John James, and many more) precisely so they can have plausible deniability to deflect allegations of bigotry. And it doesn’t hurt that Oz “looks” fairly white, has a name that doesn’t “sound Muslim,” has a white Christian wife, and doesn’t apparently take the religion very seriously. No one will care any more than they cared that Trump was an atheist philanderer. Might be a plus if anything to “troll the libs” by saying “Ee, WE have Muslim support TOO!”

But the reason why conservative base voters took to Trump, Larry Elder, Tim Scott, John James etc. was because they had one of 2 qualities: 1) they were actual supporters of staunch conservatives values, or 2) promised to appoint GOP judges/policies (in the case of Trump).

I watched the video and Oz doesn't seem to be portraying himself as a true-blue conservative Trump guy: his video seems far more suited for a general election message than a primary. And he's a wild card: it's unclear exactly what he believes in (which goes both ways). There are going to be people running against him in the primary, all to his right.

If Oz is the only moderate in the GOP primary, I'd say he's likelier to win. Most overrate the extremism of GOP primary voters, they typically choose the moderate option over the others, except in deep-red congressional districts. For every crazy that actually gets nominated, there's many generic Rs.

McCain was nominated in 2008, Romney in 2012, Trump in 2016. Each of them was the least stringently conservative major candidate in their primaries. If Oz runs as a moderate with Trump's endorsement, he'll be able to run a general election campaign from the beginning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

Republicans actually love nominating candidates whose demographics don’t seem to fit with expectations (see: Larry Elder, John James, and many more) precisely so they can have plausible deniability to deflect allegations of bigotry. And it doesn’t hurt that Oz “looks” fairly white, has a name that doesn’t “sound Muslim,” has a white Christian wife, and doesn’t apparently take the religion very seriously. No one will care any more than they cared that Trump was an atheist philanderer. Might be a plus if anything to “troll the libs” by saying “Ee, WE have Muslim support TOO!”

But the reason why conservative base voters took to Trump, Larry Elder, Tim Scott, John James etc. was because they had one of 2 qualities: 1) they were actual supporters of staunch conservatives values, or 2) promised to appoint GOP judges/policies (in the case of Trump).

I watched the video and Oz doesn't seem to be portraying himself as a true-blue conservative Trump guy: his video seems far more suited for a general election message than a primary. And he's a wild card: it's unclear exactly what he believes in (which goes both ways). There are going to be people running against him in the primary, all to his right.

If Oz is the only moderate in the GOP primary, I'd say he's likelier to win. Most overrate the extremism of GOP primary voters, they typically choose the moderate option over the others, except in deep-red congressional districts. For every crazy that actually gets nominated, there's many generic Rs.

McCain was nominated in 2008, Romney in 2012, Trump in 2016. Each of them was the least stringently conservative major candidate in their primaries. If Oz runs as a moderate with Trump's endorsement, he'll be able to run a general election campaign from the beginning.

Oz isn't just running against Fetterman he is running against Shapiro whom is hugely popular that s why Casey and Wolf won they were a tag  team in 2018

[beaver2.0]

It's pretty wild that the most likely nominee before dropped out and now Oz is somewhat likely to be the nominee, despite just moving to PA and having a questionable past politically (like Trump).

If he wins, he'd be the first Republican Muslim Senator, or Republican Muslim in Congress period.

People really need to realize that other GOP candidates like Sands and Rothfus will jump in, and Oz will lose momentum if only because of the inevitable nasty attacks claiming he's a "scary muslim" or something along those lines.

Here's the thing. I had to do some digging before even finding that out. Nobody would know he's a Muslim just by looking at him (or Turkish, for that matter), so I don't think those "nasty attacks" would land even if they're made, of which the likelihood will be overestimated by Democrats who want the anti-Muslim portrayal of Republicans. He's got a populist doctor schtick going for him that I think many base Republican voters will like.

Do you seriously not think being a Muslim hurts you in a Republican primary?

Republicans actually love nominating candidates whose demographics don’t seem to fit with expectations (see: Larry Elder, John James, and many more) precisely so they can have plausible deniability to deflect allegations of bigotry. And it doesn’t hurt that Oz “looks” fairly white, has a name that doesn’t “sound Muslim,” has a white Christian wife, and doesn’t apparently take the religion very seriously. No one will care any more than they cared that Trump was an atheist philanderer. Might be a plus if anything to “troll the libs” by saying “Ee, WE have Muslim support TOO!”

Yes, this is what I'm going for.  I actually didn't know his religion until this started (though of course I'm not a fan of the show so I had no reason to know)  Islamophobia is, of course, a thing and there's no doubt some people won't vote for him because of his religion however I think the fact that he looks pretty white and isn't public about his religion could get Republican primary voters to go for him.  I'm not saying he'll win, but I think he has a chance in the primary and then the general.

[NewYorkExpress]

Dr. Oz's show ending December 14, so he can focus on his Senate bid.

[Meatball Ron]

No idea how legit this is / how much stock we should put in it, but thought it was an interesting result - supposedly some signs of Kenyatta momentum

https://twitter.com/Anna_Greenberg/status/1472942653331410955