PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

for all the Fetterman fans, explain the thought process of somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but is likley to support Fetterman ?. Preferably without claiming they're low information or #populists.

[President Johnson]

100% endorse Fetterman. He's an interesting figure and one of the best progressive Democrats.

I think he has a good chance of winning, but really depends on several factors.

[Epaminondas]

for all the Fetterman fans, explain the thought process of somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but is likley to support Fetterman ?. Preferably without claiming they're low information or #populists.

Magnetic campaigners with daring visions is how you win back disaffected voters.

Besides, didn't Trump lose PA in 2020?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

for all the Fetterman fans, explain the thought process of somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but is likley to support Fetterman ?. Preferably without claiming they're low information or #populists.

Magnetic campaigners with daring visions is how you win back disaffected voters.

Besides, didn't Trump lose PA in 2020?

Again he's loved by democrats, how does he win indedeptns and republican suburbanites turned off by trump?(without which Biden would not have won)>

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

If y'all like Fetterman that's fine but you're trying wayyy to hard to make the jogger incident out to be nothing, when I know for a fact people wouldn't be if he was a republican. Private citizens shouldn't be acting like police, how many times have we seen that go wrong. You can argue that it's not disqualifying without defending the action.

This is an important point. We should be noting that the incident was indeed a bad judgement call that could've gotten an innocent man hurt or killed and while context is important, it doesn't excuse the action. That being said, it seems like he has been more than ardent in his support of BLM and criminal justice reform (including marijuana legalization, something that greatly impacts the incarceration rate for people of color) and instead of trying to make it seem like the jogger was blowing things out of proportion, we ought to understand that this can be a moment of poor judgement that is not indicative of an overall trend for his political career.

for all the Fetterman fans, explain the thought process of somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but is likley to support Fetterman ?. Preferably without claiming they're low information or #populists.

I think the best argument is that there are a lot of Obama-Trump voters in places like Erie, Lehigh, Northampton, Luzerne, Lackawanna, etc. that abandoned the party because of the perceived elitism and lack of interest in working class issues. You run a candidate like Joe Biden, someone from NEPA with a history of supporting unions and working class issues, you see what happened this past election--every single one of those counties shifted back towards Democrats. It's also why I think Cartwright would be a good candidate if he were to win the nomination--voters are not strictly ideological or party voters, they want someone that they trust is going to fight for them and be "their voice" as it were. Fetterman's approach from the beginning has been to go to places that Democrats typically abandon and try to talk to voters. I remember his marijuana listening tour was a big hit because he went to all 67 counties and just listened to what people had to say. I went when he came to Lancaster and opinions were divided since we're a more red county, but a lot of folks in places that vote so strongly for one party don't typically get to speak directly to their representatives in a setting like that. I could tell his presence was appreciated. I think that's the long and short of why he could be a good candidate for the GE. Frankly, I think we have a LOT of great candidates for the GE. I wouldn't be upset with any of them (though I would be a bit disappointed if we nominated Lamb) but Fetterman is my preferred candidate for ideological reasons.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

for all the Fetterman fans, explain the thought process of somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but is likley to support Fetterman ?. Preferably without claiming they're low information or #populists.

Magnetic campaigners with daring visions is how you win back disaffected voters.

Besides, didn't Trump lose PA in 2020?

Again he's loved by democrats, how does he win indedeptns and republican suburbanites turned off by trump?(without which Biden would not have won)>

He doesn't need #nevertrump suburban voters if he can win with the Shapiro/Obama coalition

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Honestly, the idea that Fetterman would over-perform Generic D with Obama-Trump voters is starting to feel more and more like wishful thinking.  It kinda reminds me of people who thought Bernie would've been our best shot at flipping states like WI, MI, and PA in 2020.  

Cartwright and - albeit to a lesser degree - Lamb have records of winning tough districts and over-performing (Lamb did so in the special and 2018, Cartwright over-performed Biden quite impressively by winning re-election by ~4% in a 2020 Trump district).  

Fetterman is basically just a vocally left-wing dude with a beard and tattoos who has never won a GE in his own right for anything above Braddock Mayor and only won his first primary for LG b/c he was the only non-eastern PA candidate in a race with 3-4 major eastern PA candidates.  

If winning back WWC Obama-Trump voters were that easy, Democrats would be running Fetterman clones everywhere, but there's really no reason to assume having tattoos and a beard is the secret sauce.  I wish it was because, ideologically speaking, Fetterman is easily the best of our potential candidates here.  However, we also need to win the GE in a Biden midterm and I've yet to see any compelling evidence to support the assertions that Fetterman has any special appeal with WWC voters the way Cartwright (and *maybe* Lamb) does or in the Philly burbs the way Shapiro does.  

[Zaybay]

Honestly, the idea that Fetterman would over-perform Generic D with Obama-Trump voters is starting to feel more and more like wishful thinking.  It kinda reminds me of people who thought Bernie would've been our best shot at flipping states like WI, MI, and PA in 2020.  

Cartwright and - albeit to a lesser degree - Lamb have records of winning tough districts and over-performing (Lamb did so in the special and 2018, Cartwright over-performed Biden quite impressively by winning re-election by ~4% in a 2020 Trump district).  

Fetterman is basically just a vocally left-wing dude with a beard and tattoos who has never won a GE in his own right for anything above Braddock Mayor and only won his first primary for LG b/c he was the only non-eastern PA candidate in a race with 3-4 major eastern PA candidates.  

If winning back WWC Obama-Trump voters were that easy, Democrats would be running Fetterman clones everywhere, but there's really no reason to assume having tattoos and a beard is the secret sauce.  I wish it was because, ideologically speaking, Fetterman is easily the best of our potential candidates here.  However, we also need to win the GE in a Biden midterm and I've yet to see any compelling evidence to support the assertions that Fetterman has any special appeal with WWC voters the way Cartwright (and *maybe* Lamb) does or in the Philly burbs the way Shapiro does.  

I'm going to take a different angle on this one. I do not really understand the hype fixation pertaining to how Fetterman's profile would appeal to the WWC.

To put it simply, the notion that only those who are white and living in rural areas or whatever will be the only group that Fetterman can see a noticeable advantage with feels off. The guy is tall, he's covered in tattoos, he's gruff, sure he looks a lot more like a stereotypical factory-worker, but I believe it should be obvious to say that such an image appeals to a much broader electorate than just the WWC.

His appeal just feels a lot more universal. It's hard to find someone who sees a guy like this running for an elected office and responds with "No, this guy's image actively pushes me away from voting for him."

Perhaps his appeal specifically to the WWC, or Obama-Trump voters, or non-college educated voters, or whatever term that's being thrown around about who Fetterman should directly appeal to falls a bit short, but I feel that the profile itself is a powerful one that appeals to all slices of life.

[brucejoel99]

for all the Fetterman fans, explain the thought process of somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but is likley to support Fetterman ?. Preferably without claiming they're low information or #populists.

I think the best argument is that there are a lot of Obama-Trump voters in places like Erie, Lehigh, Northampton, Luzerne, Lackawanna, etc. that abandoned the party because of the perceived elitism and lack of interest in working class issues. You run a candidate like Joe Biden, someone from NEPA with a history of supporting unions and working class issues, you see what happened this past election--every single one of those counties shifted back towards Democrats. It's also why I think Cartwright would be a good candidate if he were to win the nomination--voters are not strictly ideological or party voters, they want someone that they trust is going to fight for them and be "their voice" as it were. Fetterman's approach from the beginning has been to go to places that Democrats typically abandon and try to talk to voters. I remember his marijuana listening tour was a big hit because he went to all 67 counties and just listened to what people had to say. I went when he came to Lancaster and opinions were divided since we're a more red county, but a lot of folks in places that vote so strongly for one party don't typically get to speak directly to their representatives in a setting like that. I could tell his presence was appreciated. I think that's the long and short of why he could be a good candidate for the GE. Frankly, I think we have a LOT of great candidates for the GE. I wouldn't be upset with any of them (though I would be a bit disappointed if we nominated Lamb) but Fetterman is my preferred candidate for ideological reasons.

Aaaaand now I'm just sitting here with my popcorn, waiting for a Liberal Hack response to this high-quality post.

[GALeftist]

I mean, people keep talking about how Fetterman is untested, but who are the other options? Besides Cartwright, who I think has probably proven himself at this point, none of the other candidates seem likely to significantly overperform among any demographic. I mean, I know Lamb won that race in 2018, but he couldn't even overperform Biden this past year, plus he's worse ideologically than Fetterman imo. Houlahan seems fine, but the Philly burbs are hardly a place where I'd imagine one candidate would drastically overperform generic D. Same goes for Boyle in Philly proper. In my view, unless Cartwright bites, Fetterman seems like the best candidate from an electability perspective; it risks nothing and also means that he might get those mythical Obama-Trump voters if the hype is real.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean, people keep talking about how Fetterman is untested, but who are the other options? Besides Cartwright, who I think has probably proven himself at this point, none of the other candidates seem likely to significantly overperform among any demographic. I mean, I know Lamb won that race in 2018, but he couldn't even overperform Biden this past year, plus he's worse ideologically than Fetterman imo. Houlahan seems fine, but the Philly burbs are hardly a place where I'd imagine one candidate would drastically overperform generic D. Same goes for Boyle in Philly proper. In my view, unless Cartwright bites, Fetterman seems like the best candidate from an electability perspective; it risks nothing and also means that he might get those mythical Obama-Trump voters if the hype is real.

Cartwright and Lamb (he’s over-performed in two of his three congressional races, all of which were competitive) are probably more electable (the hype could be real though), but Lamb has problematic #ModerateHero tendencies.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Honestly, the idea that Fetterman would over-perform Generic D with Obama-Trump voters is starting to feel more and more like wishful thinking.  It kinda reminds me of people who thought Bernie would've been our best shot at flipping states like WI, MI, and PA in 2020.  

Cartwright and - albeit to a lesser degree - Lamb have records of winning tough districts and over-performing (Lamb did so in the special and 2018, Cartwright over-performed Biden quite impressively by winning re-election by ~4% in a 2020 Trump district).  

Fetterman is basically just a vocally left-wing dude with a beard and tattoos who has never won a GE in his own right for anything above Braddock Mayor and only won his first primary for LG b/c he was the only non-eastern PA candidate in a race with 3-4 major eastern PA candidates.  

If winning back WWC Obama-Trump voters were that easy, Democrats would be running Fetterman clones everywhere, but there's really no reason to assume having tattoos and a beard is the secret sauce.  I wish it was because, ideologically speaking, Fetterman is easily the best of our potential candidates here.  However, we also need to win the GE in a Biden midterm and I've yet to see any compelling evidence to support the assertions that Fetterman has any special appeal with WWC voters the way Cartwright (and *maybe* Lamb) does or in the Philly burbs the way Shapiro does.  

Democrats have run candidates who've talked about working class issues since time immemorial in those areas. They simply haven't won as their cultural identity is out of step with the democratic party and running candidates talking about those issues simply isn't going to get them back to party. Especialy when your run on an incredibly left-wing platform, the theory that left-wing populism is the key to winning those areas back was found to almost completely flawed in 2020 election as left-wing candidates fell flat on there face in these areas.

I like Fetterman, I just think everyone is overestimating the success he'll have as a senatorial canidate.

[MT Treasurer]

Boring take: Unless Republicans nominate a complete disaster of a candidate, this will quickly turn into a generic R vs. generic D vote, regardless of whether Democrats nominate Lamb, Cartwright, or Fetterman. (1) What’s Biden's approval on election day? (2) How high is R turnout in rural/small-town PA? And there you have your winner. It’s more likely than not that the Democratic candidate for SEN slightly outperforms Biden's approval %, but it won’t be by more than 1-2% (granted, that could be enough in a very close race). Tilt R for now.

[Roll Roons]

Boring take: Unless Republicans nominate a complete disaster of a candidate, this will quickly turn into a generic R vs. generic D vote, regardless of whether Democrats nominate Lamb, Cartwright, or Fetterman. (1) What’s Biden's approval on election day? (2) How high is R turnout in rural/small-town PA? And there you have your winner. It’s more likely than not that the Democratic candidate for SEN slightly outperforms Biden's approval %, but it won’t be by more than 1-2% (granted, that could be enough in a very close race). Tilt R for now.

Never put it past Republican primary voters to do exactly that.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Boring take: Unless Republicans nominate a complete disaster of a candidate, this will quickly turn into a generic R vs. generic D vote, regardless of whether Democrats nominate Lamb, Cartwright, or Fetterman. (1) What’s Biden's approval on election day? (2) How high is R turnout in rural/small-town PA? And there you have your winner. It’s more likely than not that the Democratic candidate for SEN slightly outperforms Biden's approval %, but it won’t be by more than 1-2% (granted, that could be enough in a very close race). Tilt R for now.

No, John Fetterman or Matt Cartwright would do better among the working-class in western or northeastern PA, while Conor Lamb or generic Phili D would do better among educated voters in the Phili suburbs.

[Blair]

for all the Fetterman fans, explain the thought process of somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but is likley to support Fetterman ?. Preferably without claiming they're low information or #populists.

I'm not trying to be a dick but a few pages back you were making false claims about Fetterman, got called out for it & then ignored it.

[Suburbia]

Fetterman's done.

He can't win a Democratic primary when he was involved in a 2013 scuffle with a Black jogger. The Democratic Party is the social justice party, they empathize with Ahmaud Arbery, etc.

Fetterman is too WWC for the Dems.......

Innamorato or Sumner Lee will probably get a lot of votes if they run on this.....

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/538175-senate-candidate-fetterman-defends-actions-in-2013-gun-incident-with

[wesmoorenerd]

Fetterman has released a short response to recent talk of the gun incident.

He disputes the fact that he knew of the man's race, while claiming that he maintained 15 feet of distance between him and the man and never pointed the gun at anyone. If he's being truthful, which I see no real reason to doubt, this is probably a non-issue.

[MT Treasurer]

Boring take: Unless Republicans nominate a complete disaster of a candidate, this will quickly turn into a generic R vs. generic D vote, regardless of whether Democrats nominate Lamb, Cartwright, or Fetterman. (1) What’s Biden's approval on election day? (2) How high is R turnout in rural/small-town PA? And there you have your winner. It’s more likely than not that the Democratic candidate for SEN slightly outperforms Biden's approval %, but it won’t be by more than 1-2% (granted, that could be enough in a very close race). Tilt R for now.

No, John Fetterman or Matt Cartwright would do better among the working-class in western or northeastern PA, while Conor Lamb or generic Phili D would do better among educated voters in the Phili suburbs.

K.

[Horus]

How did Fetterman do in the LG primary in the Hill District, Wilkinsburg and East Liberty? If he did well in those neighborhoods and got reelected by a 3-1 margin in an 80% black town I see no reason why this incident would hurt him.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Fetterman has released a short response to recent talk of the gun incident.

He disputes the fact that he knew of the man's race, while claiming that he maintained 15 feet of distance between him and the man and never pointed the gun at anyone. If he's being truthful, which I see no real reason to doubt, this is probably a non-issue.

Well, I appreciate him releasing a statement and this seems like a better response than what he has said in the past, but it still feels a little...phoned in? I guess? I mean, how hard is it really to just say "I made a snap decision where I believe my intentions were pure, but it was the wrong decision. I regret it and I apologize if I made this innocent man feel unsafe or targeted." I still support him, but he can't just expect this to go away just by saying "this has never caught on when anyone else has tried to use it against me."

[wesmoorenerd]

Fetterman has released a short response to recent talk of the gun incident.

He disputes the fact that he knew of the man's race, while claiming that he maintained 15 feet of distance between him and the man and never pointed the gun at anyone. If he's being truthful, which I see no real reason to doubt, this is probably a non-issue.

Well, I appreciate him releasing a statement and this seems like a better response than what he has said in the past, but it still feels a little...phoned in? I guess? I mean, how hard is it really to just say "I made a snap decision where I believe my intentions were pure, but it was the wrong decision. I regret it and I apologize if I made this innocent man feel unsafe or targeted." I still support him, but he can't just expect this to go away just by saying "this has never caught on when anyone else has tried to use it against me."

On the "innocent man" point, it must be noted that the guy in question is currently serving a prison sentence for kidnapping for ransom, terroristic threats, and reckless endangerment. Now, that was from a completely unrelated incident and clearly does not justify Fetterman's actions, but it does kind of change the optics of how apologizing to the guy would look.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Fetterman has released a short response to recent talk of the gun incident.

He disputes the fact that he knew of the man's race, while claiming that he maintained 15 feet of distance between him and the man and never pointed the gun at anyone. If he's being truthful, which I see no real reason to doubt, this is probably a non-issue.

Well, I appreciate him releasing a statement and this seems like a better response than what he has said in the past, but it still feels a little...phoned in? I guess? I mean, how hard is it really to just say "I made a snap decision where I believe my intentions were pure, but it was the wrong decision. I regret it and I apologize if I made this innocent man feel unsafe or targeted." I still support him, but he can't just expect this to go away just by saying "this has never caught on when anyone else has tried to use it against me."

On the "innocent man" point, it must be noted that the guy in question is currently serving a prison sentence for kidnapping for ransom, terroristic threats, and reckless endangerment. Now, that was from a completely unrelated incident and clearly does not justify Fetterman's actions, but it does kind of change the optics of how apologizing to the guy would look.

I mean, it doesn't make him less innocent in the moment we're discussing, though. Just because someone goes on to commit a crime does not mean it's okay to harass them when they've done nothing wrong. I don't think it changes the optics at all and he should still apologize.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Boring take: Unless Republicans nominate a complete disaster of a candidate, this will quickly turn into a generic R vs. generic D vote, regardless of whether Democrats nominate Lamb, Cartwright, or Fetterman. (1) What’s Biden's approval on election day? (2) How high is R turnout in rural/small-town PA? And there you have your winner. It’s more likely than not that the Democratic candidate for SEN slightly outperforms Biden's approval %, but it won’t be by more than 1-2% (granted, that could be enough in a very close race). Tilt R for now.

No, John Fetterman or Matt Cartwright would do better among the working-class in western or northeastern PA, while Conor Lamb or generic Phili D would do better among educated voters in the Phili suburbs.

K.

Your skepticism towards reversal of trends is warranted as these are likely to continue in some form regardless of the candidates at the federal level. However, I do think the extent to which these trends occur will vary depending on the candidate and that is where the Lamb vs Fetterman vs Houlahan etc. analysis is worthwhile.

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that Cartwright would hold up better in R-trending areas (relative to D-trending areas) than e.g. Wild. He has a track record of doing this at the federal level.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman like Bob Casey Jr can win Erie, PA just like Biden añd Casey did as Seen, Veep and Prez did in 2006/2008/2012/2018/2020, and it will go D in 2024/ with Casey up for Reelection

The reason why Hillary lost was that Erie, PA was lost

Just like Tim Ryan like Sherrod Brown can win Mahoney County back, just like Ted Strickland did in 2006

We can see a 2018 election where Rs win Mahoning County and Erie, PA for Gov and Fetterman and Tim Ryan both win those counties.

NC and OH voted D in 2018, so it's plausible