PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[ctherainbow]

Well damn, that was unexpected as hell.  So we’ve already got a Philly v Pitt rivalry in the Dem primary.  If he gets screwed in redistricting, I still hope Matt (Cartwright) runs, but in the absence of him running, Malcolm = endorsed, donated to, volunteered for.  He’s a great guy who has the potential to be a phenomenal Senator.

Obviously, electorally I am worried about elderly suburban/rural Dems who are mildly racist and homophobic going for someone like Fitzpatrick over Kenyatta in the general, but who knows, the PA GOP may nominate a Scott Wagner type, so we’ll have to see.

[ctherainbow]

The only sad part about both Sims and Kenyatta running is it cuts our queer representation in the PA House by 2/3rds if they win.     

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Conor Lamb sucks, he is a Neoliberal Douchebag. Big Fetts or Matt Cartwheel would be much better.

[Pink Panther]

I feel Trump Jr may run for this seat. However, he would probably be crushed in the General unless Bill Cosby is his opponent.

[lfromnj]

The only sad part about both Sims and Kenyatta running is it cuts our queer representation in the PA House by 2/3rds if they win.     

Doesn't this  mean they retire too so its either way?

[ctherainbow]

Doesn't this  mean they retire too so its either way?

So far, there are no indications that they won’t both file for their current seats as well.  You don’t have to resign your legislative office to run for another office in PA.

[Morning in Atlas]

We're lucky to have two great qualified progressives in the race. I would enthusiastically support Kenyatta if he made it to the general - he seems to be above Kennedy's petty dogwhistling and is at least unquestionably strong on the issues.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Fetterman will be the next Senator is due to Bob Casey Jr, and he takes bold positions and doesn't care what Rs think of it

Along with Jackson, Tim Ryan and Nelson they will all end the Filibuster

[wbrocks67]

While I love that Kenyatta is in, this is going to be an ugly primary. Not looking forward to it.

However, I too have been unsettled with how Fetterman has handled the jogger incident. It just doesn't sit right with me. I think I'm on train Kenyatta for now (I'm also from SEPA so maybe I'm biased as well)

I'm not sure Lamb will jump in. But I'm even less sure of Houlahan/Dean/Wild. Dean is my congresswoman - I wouldn't be surprised if she used her new found fame (via the impeachment trial) to do it, but she's also in a very safe seat, so I'm not sure it's worth it for her right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman talked to Shapiro and both are tag teaming to be Gov and Senate


We lost 2016/ due to McGinty being ultra liberal,  Sestak was a blue dog and would have won the race.


The NAACP isnt crying out and demanding Fetterman not to run

Bob Casey is a blue dog too

[SnowLabrador]

I support Kenyatta wholeheartedly. Fetterman sucks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I support Kenyatta wholeheartedly. Fetterman sucks.

Watch Fetterman win

[Horus]

Kenyatta is great, but I'm unconvinced he can win statewide.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We nominated Kate McGinty instead of Joe Sestak and we lost big time, it's Fetterman

[Horus]

We nominated Kate McGinty instead of Joe Sestak and we lost big time, it's Fetterman

Probably.. But many are upset with his response to the jogger issue. I don't see how he would've been able to know the race of the guy and think the criticism is a bit unfair, but his apology was also lackluster.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Unless the Philly establishment machine unites behind Kenyatta, this probably helps Conor Lamb more than anything since it means the progressive vote will be split.  If another noteworthy Philly or Philly burbs candidate gets in, he’s probably at least the slight frontrunner (unless Cartwright also jumps in).  

Fetterman, Lamb, Cartwright, and arguably even Houlahan (a lot less sure about her though since she’s basically Generic D) would be better candidates imo.  What reason is there to think Kenyatta would uniquely over-perform anywhere the way, say, Cartwright did in 2020 or the way Lamb did in 2018 and the special election?  He also doesn’t have a uniquely compelling profile which Fetterman may or may not have.  What is the electoral argument for why he’s the strongest candidate in the GE?  

I mean, “charismatic AA candidate who can get high AA turnout” seems to be the path forward in some southern states, but I don’t think PA fits that mold.  Its voters are at least somewhat more elastic than those in a state like Georgia or Wisconsin and I do think it is a state where we need someone who can over-perform at least a little bit, even if that just means not losing as badly as Generic D in a certain region.  

Plus, Kenyatta is basically a random 2nd term state Rep. from Philly proper; why gamble our best pickup opportunity on him when everyone agrees we’ve already got a stupidly strong bench in PA?  Keeping my fingers crossed that Cartwright gets in with DSCC backing and that Lamb passes on the race as a result.  

[😥]

I just hope that Cartwright jumps in, but now I'm fully support Fetterman

[Alcibiades]

Matt Cartwright would be my preferred candidate, unless redistricting results in a tilting R seat that only he could hold in 2022.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wouldn't Cartwright open up a vulnerable seat in the House? And isn't he a boring dude?

I'm for sure backing Fetterman.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Wouldn't Cartwright open up a vulnerable seat in the House? And isn't he a boring dude?

I'm for sure backing Fetterman.

Yes, at this point, Cartwright bring nothing to the race that Fetterman or Kenyatta wouldn't bring. I would expect him to stay in Congress at this point.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wouldn't Cartwright open up a vulnerable seat in the House? And isn't he a boring dude?

I'm for sure backing Fetterman.

Cartwright was reelected by 3.6% in 2020 in a district that also voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020.  In other words, he has strong enough crossover appeal that a statistically significant number of Trump voters crossed party lines in a Presidential election year to vote for him.  It’s literally the reason he won re-election.  At the same time, Cartwright is a progressive who has amassed a pretty impressive voting record from a policy standpoint.  Clearly he’s doing something right

Wouldn't Cartwright open up a vulnerable seat in the House? And isn't he a boring dude?

I'm for sure backing Fetterman.

Yes, at this point, Cartwright bring nothing to the race that Fetterman or Kenyatta wouldn't bring. I would expect him to stay in Congress at this point.

He brings a proven record of over-performance and crossover appeal in a tough region of the state while simultaneously having a strong progressive record in the House.  Fetterman lacks any sort of meaningful electoral track record, but you could at least argue his profile might give him special appeal to WWC voters (although I am a bit skeptical at this point).  What does Kenyatta even bring to the table from an electability standpoint?  I’m genuinely asking b/c right now, I can’t think of anything.

[Meatball Ron]

Unless the Philly establishment machine unites behind Kenyatta, this probably helps Conor Lamb more than anything since it means the progressive vote will be split.  If another noteworthy Philly or Philly burbs candidate gets in, he’s probably at least the slight frontrunner (unless Cartwright also jumps in).  

Disagree. Historically, PA Dem primaries are along geographic lines, not ideological ones. Kenyatta would have the advantage in a Kenyatta vs. Lamb vs. Fetterman primary because the (already smaller) Western vote would be split.

He also doesn’t have a uniquely compelling profile which Fetterman may or may not have.  What is the electoral argument for why he’s the strongest candidate in the GE?  

Err...you can debate the general election viability of Kenyatta versus other candidates, but it's a bit of a stretch to say a 30-year old black man who'd be the first openly gay male Senator in history doesn't have a "uniquely compelling profile"

What is the electoral argument for why he’s the strongest candidate in the GE?  

The electoral argument is that Pennsylvania is a turnout state, not a persuasion state, and that Kenyatta (who is very well-known in his community, often on a first-name basis with constituents) would see higher African American turnout in the Philly area - replicating Biden's path to victory in the state. Despite all the hype, Biden didn't really over-perform in the ancestral Dem / WWC areas of the state, and just because Fetterman is big and dressed-down doesn't mean he would either. I think there's a stronger argument for why Lamb / Cartwright would over-perform slightly in those areas, but given the raw number of voters, I'm not sure it'd be enough, especially if black turnout is lower with them. The gubernatorial nominee is also going to be a generic white dude; we need to give younger and POC voters a reason to turn out.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Unless the Philly establishment machine unites behind Kenyatta, this probably helps Conor Lamb more than anything since it means the progressive vote will be split.  If another noteworthy Philly or Philly burbs candidate gets in, he’s probably at least the slight frontrunner (unless Cartwright also jumps in).  

Disagree. Historically, PA Dem primaries are along geographic lines, not ideological ones. Kenyatta would have the advantage in a Kenyatta vs. Lamb vs. Fetterman primary because the (already smaller) Western vote would be split.

He also doesn’t have a uniquely compelling profile which Fetterman may or may not have.  What is the electoral argument for why he’s the strongest candidate in the GE?  

Err...you can debate the general election viability of Kenyatta versus other candidates, but it's a bit of a stretch to say a 30-year old black man who'd be the first openly gay male Senator in history doesn't have a "uniquely compelling profile"

What is the electoral argument for why he’s the strongest candidate in the GE?  

The electoral argument is that Pennsylvania is a turnout state, not a persuasion state, and that Kenyatta (who is very well-known in his community, often on a first-name basis with constituents) would see higher African American turnout in the Philly area - replicating Biden's path to victory in the state. Despite all the hype, Biden didn't really over-perform in the ancestral Dem / WWC areas of the state, and just because Fetterman is big and dressed-down doesn't mean he would either. I think there's a stronger argument for why Lamb / Cartwright would over-perform slightly in those areas, but given the raw number of voters, I'm not sure it'd be enough, especially if black turnout is lower with them. The gubernatorial nominee is also going to be a generic white dude; we need to give younger and POC voters a reason to turn out.

- The geographic argument about PA primaries is fair, but I don’t think it is a given that the Philly machine will rally around Kenyatta.  Time will tell.  

-  I meant that it’s not the sort of profile that is going to potentially give him special crossover appeal or make him likely to over-perform Generic D.  Also, if the focus group results about Buttigieg are anything to go by, being gay could even hurt him with older AA voters.  I doubt it, but the possiblity can’t be discounted.  Plus, we just ran a progressive AA from Philly proper who had a higher profile than Kenyatta - Nina Ahmad - and she under-performed the rest of the ticket.  Kenyatta’s profile is clearly not some sort of secret sauce to juicing AA turnout by enough to win on the strength of that alone.  

- That said, I agree that the argument Fetterman’s profile will give him some special appeal with WWC voters leaves a lot to be desired.  

- I mean, I’d argue PA is simultaneously a persuasion and a turnout state which makes it an extra tricky needle to thread.  Biden actually did well enough that quite a few rural Republican counties in PA swung toward us in the Presidential race.  It’s about how much you lose by in some of those places, not whether you carry them.  

- I’m also not really convinced that nominating Kenyatta will have a big impact on AA turnout outside of maybe his district.  The best way to get the base to turnout is to nuke or gut the filibuster and pass progressive legislation that either directly effects people or is a major priority for the Democratic base.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

- I’m also not really convinced that nominating Kenyatta will have a big impact on AA turnout outside of maybe his district.  The best way to get the base to turnout is to nuke or gut the filibuster and pass progressive legislation that either directly effects people or is a major priority for the Democratic base.

Stacey Abrams has given us the framework for organizing, specifically in black communities. We know that midterms come down to turnout and no matter who the Democrats nominate, we need every vote possible. We have a ton of votes in Philly, Pittsburgh, Erie, Montco/Bucks/Delco that are heavily favorable for Dems. A lot of those voters are black. Organizers in PA know this, specifically the ones working in those areas. There's a compelling case to make that Fetterman can help win back WWC voters in places like Erie and Luzerne and Lackawanna but that's inherently an uphill battle because they've already demonstrated willingness to vote for Trumpist candidates. Winning black voters in Philly and Pittsburgh and the collar counties is inherently favorable towards Democrats and just comes down to turnout. If Kenyatta is the type of person who can turn those people out, his case is equally compelling.

[Meatball Ron]

- I’m also not really convinced that nominating Kenyatta will have a big impact on AA turnout outside of maybe his district.  The best way to get the base to turnout is to nuke or gut the filibuster and pass progressive legislation that either directly effects people or is a major priority for the Democratic base.

Stacey Abrams has given us the framework for organizing, specifically in black communities. We know that midterms come down to turnout and no matter who the Democrats nominate, we need every vote possible. We have a ton of votes in Philly, Pittsburgh, Erie, Montco/Bucks/Delco that are heavily favorable for Dems. A lot of those voters are black. Organizers in PA know this, specifically the ones working in those areas. There's a compelling case to make that Fetterman can help win back WWC voters in places like Erie and Luzerne and Lackawanna but that's inherently an uphill battle because they've already demonstrated willingness to vote for Trumpist candidates. Winning black voters in Philly and Pittsburgh and the collar counties is inherently favorable towards Democrats and just comes down to turnout. If Kenyatta is the type of person who can turn those people out, his case is equally compelling.

Great post!