PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Will be interesting to see how much of the vote % 3rd-parties get. PA tends to have an interestingly high chunk of voters for these when they end up on the ballot.

2020:
Prez - 1.15%
AG - 2.81%
Auditor General - 4.21%
State Treasurer - 3.41%

And that was with only two 3rd parties on the ballot, let alone 4.

[SnowLabrador]

Will be interesting to see how much of the vote % 3rd-parties get. PA tends to have an interestingly high chunk of voters for these when they end up on the ballot.

2020:
Prez - 1.15%
AG - 2.81%
Auditor General - 4.21%
State Treasurer - 3.41%

And that was with only two 3rd parties on the ballot, let alone 4.

I'd be shocked if it was more than 3%, personally. The 2018 Senate race only had 1.64%.

[GALeftist]

Will be interesting to see how much of the vote % 3rd-parties get. PA tends to have an interestingly high chunk of voters for these when they end up on the ballot.

2020:
Prez - 1.15%
AG - 2.81%
Auditor General - 4.21%
State Treasurer - 3.41%

And that was with only two 3rd parties on the ballot, let alone 4.

I'd be shocked if it was more than 3%, personally. The 2018 Senate race only had 1.64%.

Well the reason I asked is that there seems to be a relatively large number of right wing voters who disapprove of Oz, so I think right-wing third parties could be significant in this race.

[Brittain33]

The best strategy against Fetterman would be to try and paint him as an out-of-touch phony who is more interested in being a celebrity than a politician... too bad for the Republicans that this strategy doesn't work when your nominee is a literal out-of-touch phony celebrity.

Worked in 2016.

Dr. Mehmet Oz and Donald Trump have very different appeals.

As in Trump appeals to Ww/oC voters while Oz appeals to nobody.

Republican voters want candidates to validate their own manliness. They want to feel like they’re being strong men in who they vote for.

What’s manly about voting for a guy from the Oprah Winfrey show who lives like a Kardashian in a mansion in NJ?

[Lambsbread]

FWIW (probably not much, but still an interesting observation) I've seen multiple Mastriano signs in the rural parts of the state and multiple Shapiro and Fetterman signs in the suburbs and cities (quite a few in rural parts as well). I have yet to see a single Dr. Oz sign.

Yep, I moved from Lancaster to Bucks County and didn't see a single Shapiro sign until I visited a friend in Philly (and drove through Montco)

I've seen a ton of Mastriano signs. They're everywhere. Fetterman in a distant second for signs I've seen.

I saw one Oz sign outside my polling place on election day.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1553077650176065538?s=20&t=akUCwfD...

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1553077650176065538?s=20&t=akUCwfD...

Indeed, but Oz losing makes the path to a solid GOP majority much harder. 

If PA flips R-->D, the GOP must win two of AZ/GA/NV to take control of the Senate (we'll discount less likely flips such as NH or CO).  And even then, it'd still be the narrowest of majorities. 

Of course, it's not at all inconceivable that the GOP holds PA and flips AZ/GA/NV to take a more commanding 52-48 majority.  But Oz is a pretty integral part of the GOP Senate machine. 

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1553077650176065538?s=20&t=akUCwfD...

Indeed, but Oz losing makes the path to a solid GOP majority much harder. 

If PA flips R-->D, the GOP must win two of AZ/GA/NV to take control of the Senate (we'll discount less likely flips such as NH or CO).  And even then, it'd still be the narrowest of majorities. 

Of course, it's not at all inconceivable that the GOP holds PA and flips AZ/GA/NV to take a more commanding 52-48 majority.  But Oz is a pretty integral part of the GOP Senate machine. 

Agreed, though even a narrow 51 seat majority would be very bad news for Joe Biden. At that moment, Mitch is again Majority Leader and decides which bills and candidates for executives posts and judges get a vote on the floor. And he would definitely use that power to block Biden from filling more judicial vacancies.

Democrats need to keep the senate, ideally defend all incumbents and flip at least Pennsylvania. Especially since the 2024 map will be less friendly. Actually they need to get to 52 for having a fighting chance in 2024, even if the president wins reelection.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1553077650176065538?s=20&t=akUCwfD...

Indeed, but Oz losing makes the path to a solid GOP majority much harder. 

If PA flips R-->D, the GOP must win two of AZ/GA/NV to take control of the Senate (we'll discount less likely flips such as NH or CO).  And even then, it'd still be the narrowest of majorities. 

Of course, it's not at all inconceivable that the GOP holds PA and flips AZ/GA/NV to take a more commanding 52-48 majority.  But Oz is a pretty integral part of the GOP Senate machine. 

I have actually had PA as seat number 53 for the GOP for quite some time with this being my ranking:

49: WI
50: NV
51: AZ
52: GA
53: PA


Given it is an open race I dont think the fact the GOP currently holds this seat really means much. Now I think Republicans have the best chance in NV out of these 4 as they actually have a strong candidate in NV, its a state that is trending R , and the Reid Machine was toppled so due to this I think the GOP has the best chance in NV.

So that leaves AZ/GA/PA where Republicans have/likely to nominate flawed candidates so the reason why I think PA is the hardest out of those 3 is:

1. It voted for Biden by the largest margin

2. PA is a state where Republicans rely on low propensity voters turnout more than they do in AZ/GA which are states where Democrats rely on low propensity voters to turnout.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1553077650176065538?s=20&t=akUCwfD...

Indeed, but Oz losing makes the path to a solid GOP majority much harder. 

If PA flips R-->D, the GOP must win two of AZ/GA/NV to take control of the Senate (we'll discount less likely flips such as NH or CO).  And even then, it'd still be the narrowest of majorities. 

Of course, it's not at all inconceivable that the GOP holds PA and flips AZ/GA/NV to take a more commanding 52-48 majority.  But Oz is a pretty integral part of the GOP Senate machine. 

I have actually had PA as seat number 53 for the GOP for quite some time with this being my ranking:

49: WI
50: NV
51: AZ
52: GA
53: PA


Given it is an open race I dont think the fact the GOP currently holds this seat really means much. Now I think Republicans have the best chance in NV out of these 4 as they actually have a strong candidate in NV, its a state that is trending R , and the Reid Machine was toppled so due to this I think the GOP has the best chance in NV.

So that leaves AZ/GA/PA where Republicans have/likely to nominate flawed candidates so the reason why I think PA is the hardest out of those 3 is:

1. It voted for Biden by the largest margin

2. PA is a state where Republicans rely on low propensity voters turnout more than they do in AZ/GA which are states where Democrats rely on low propensity voters to turnout.

I think you counting is off, shouldn’t WI be 50 and PA be 54?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1553077650176065538?s=20&t=akUCwfD...

Indeed, but Oz losing makes the path to a solid GOP majority much harder. 

If PA flips R-->D, the GOP must win two of AZ/GA/NV to take control of the Senate (we'll discount less likely flips such as NH or CO).  And even then, it'd still be the narrowest of majorities. 

Of course, it's not at all inconceivable that the GOP holds PA and flips AZ/GA/NV to take a more commanding 52-48 majority.  But Oz is a pretty integral part of the GOP Senate machine. 

I have actually had PA as seat number 53 for the GOP for quite some time with this being my ranking:

49: WI
50: NV
51: AZ
52: GA
53: PA


Given it is an open race I dont think the fact the GOP currently holds this seat really means much. Now I think Republicans have the best chance in NV out of these 4 as they actually have a strong candidate in NV, its a state that is trending R , and the Reid Machine was toppled so due to this I think the GOP has the best chance in NV.

So that leaves AZ/GA/PA where Republicans have/likely to nominate flawed candidates so the reason why I think PA is the hardest out of those 3 is:

1. It voted for Biden by the largest margin

2. PA is a state where Republicans rely on low propensity voters turnout more than they do in AZ/GA which are states where Democrats rely on low propensity voters to turnout.

I think you counting is off, shouldn’t WI be 50 and PA be 54?

No, he's right (and I agree with his ordering).  The Republicans have 50 now, but that includes WI and PA.  So if they flipped AZ/GA/NV they would have 53.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1553077650176065538?s=20&t=akUCwfD...

Indeed, but Oz losing makes the path to a solid GOP majority much harder. 

If PA flips R-->D, the GOP must win two of AZ/GA/NV to take control of the Senate (we'll discount less likely flips such as NH or CO).  And even then, it'd still be the narrowest of majorities. 

Of course, it's not at all inconceivable that the GOP holds PA and flips AZ/GA/NV to take a more commanding 52-48 majority.  But Oz is a pretty integral part of the GOP Senate machine. 

I have actually had PA as seat number 53 for the GOP for quite some time with this being my ranking:

49: WI
50: NV
51: AZ
52: GA
53: PA


Given it is an open race I dont think the fact the GOP currently holds this seat really means much. Now I think Republicans have the best chance in NV out of these 4 as they actually have a strong candidate in NV, its a state that is trending R , and the Reid Machine was toppled so due to this I think the GOP has the best chance in NV.

So that leaves AZ/GA/PA where Republicans have/likely to nominate flawed candidates so the reason why I think PA is the hardest out of those 3 is:

1. It voted for Biden by the largest margin

2. PA is a state where Republicans rely on low propensity voters turnout more than they do in AZ/GA which are states where Democrats rely on low propensity voters to turnout.

I think you counting is off, shouldn’t WI be 50 and PA be 54?

No, he's right (and I agree with his ordering).  The Republicans have 50 now, but that includes WI and PA.  So if they flipped AZ/GA/NV they would have 53.

I’m an idiot who was counting WI as a Dem seat.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So I think we can safely say Pat Toomey's BS will help the Republicans? /s

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1553077650176065538?s=20&t=akUCwfD...

Indeed, but Oz losing makes the path to a solid GOP majority much harder. 

If PA flips R-->D, the GOP must win two of AZ/GA/NV to take control of the Senate (we'll discount less likely flips such as NH or CO).  And even then, it'd still be the narrowest of majorities. 

Of course, it's not at all inconceivable that the GOP holds PA and flips AZ/GA/NV to take a more commanding 52-48 majority.  But Oz is a pretty integral part of the GOP Senate machine. 

I have actually had PA as seat number 53 for the GOP for quite some time with this being my ranking:

49: WI
50: NV
51: AZ
52: GA
53: PA


Given it is an open race I dont think the fact the GOP currently holds this seat really means much. Now I think Republicans have the best chance in NV out of these 4 as they actually have a strong candidate in NV, its a state that is trending R , and the Reid Machine was toppled so due to this I think the GOP has the best chance in NV.

So that leaves AZ/GA/PA where Republicans have/likely to nominate flawed candidates so the reason why I think PA is the hardest out of those 3 is:

1. It voted for Biden by the largest margin

2. PA is a state where Republicans rely on low propensity voters turnout more than they do in AZ/GA which are states where Democrats rely on low propensity voters to turnout.

I think you counting is off, shouldn’t WI be 50 and PA be 54?

No its 50/50 right now and if the GOP doesnt pick up any seats and loses PA that drops them to 49.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH, NC, WI are vulnerable too, Johnson was losing in that poll to Barnes 46/44 and Cook has WI as Tossup

Just a note Sabato had WI Gov Lean R and 538 in 2018 and Evers won Johnson has a 36 Favs


Nate Silver had Walker favored and he Lost on provision ballots you know why because Johnson won all his races on 300K votes the exact number of statewide Provisional ballots and Johnson isn't gonna get every last vote he won last time

[wbrocks67]

538's official polling average page is up

Current average is Fetterman +8.3

Fetterman (D) 47.6%
Oz (R) 39.4%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/

[here2view]

Went back and checked, Toomey was leading most polls around this time in 2016. Does that mean anything? Doubt it, but I found it interesting.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

538's official polling average page is up

Current average is Fetterman +8.3

Fetterman (D) 47.6%
Oz (R) 39.4%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/

ouch, it’ll be something if PA gets triaged

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also worth noting that’s a ton of undecideds, but Fetterman is already relatively close to 50%. I suspect the average will narrow as undecides mostly break Oz as partisanship works itself out.

[The Dowager Mod]

[free my dawg]

Yep - after a bit of Google-fu, his domicile is his father-in-law's business.

It's also misspelled on his form.

[wbrocks67]

Oz/NRSC's new ad up on TV is.... something. These ads always push out context quotes but this one where they insinuate that Fetterman wants to release 1/3 of violent prisoners just out into the streets and then use the quote "I'm trying to get out as many as we can" truly made me chuckle. Like, at least if you're going to use his words out of context, don't make them seem so truly outlandish to the point where you just have to laugh because you know that's not what he meant.

Seems Oz/Rs only play is to keep using the "crime" angle (Headline in the ad is "CRIME SKYROCKETING!"). Just more typical lazy fearmongering.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oz/NRSC's new ad up on TV is.... something. These ads always push out context quotes but this one where they insinuate that Fetterman wants to release 1/3 of violent prisoners just out into the streets and then use the quote "I'm trying to get out as many as we can" truly made me chuckle. Like, at least if you're going to use his words out of context, don't make them seem so truly outlandish to the point where you just have to laugh because you know that's not what he meant.

Seems Oz/Rs only play is to keep using the "crime" angle (Headline in the ad is "CRIME SKYROCKETING!"). Just more typical lazy fearmongering.

You're on the ground. Do you think it'll work?r

[wbrocks67]

Oz/NRSC's new ad up on TV is.... something. These ads always push out context quotes but this one where they insinuate that Fetterman wants to release 1/3 of violent prisoners just out into the streets and then use the quote "I'm trying to get out as many as we can" truly made me chuckle. Like, at least if you're going to use his words out of context, don't make them seem so truly outlandish to the point where you just have to laugh because you know that's not what he meant.

Seems Oz/Rs only play is to keep using the "crime" angle (Headline in the ad is "CRIME SKYROCKETING!"). Just more typical lazy fearmongering.

You're on the ground. Do you think it'll work?r

I'm sure it will work with some of the rank and file Republicans. And I'm sure there's a few voters out there who the whole 'lenient on crime' thing will work on, too. I think if Fetterman was a more generic D the attacks could be more fruitful, but I just don't think a lot of these things land on Fetterman, and they come off disingenuous coming from someone like Oz.

I try and put my head in the eyes of the typical moderate/suburban voter in PA, of which there are a lot. If Oz keeps pounding the 'radical socialist' thing, I'm sure a few will believe it. But I also think Oz is just a terrible messenger himself, and Fetterman is just more authentic, so these attacks don't come off as successfully imo as they would with two generic candidates. We'll see though.

Honestly, IMO, Fetterman's NJ attacks on Oz are the smartest. Of course he will/has to hit other issues too, but the whole "Oz doesn't care about us because he's not even from here" is the easiest and most successful attack you could launch on him. Brandishing him as even more out of touch than just being a celebrity, but a celebrity who thinks they can just waltz into Pennsylvania and buy a senate seat? That resonates.

[wbrocks67]

This is the most shocking part. Oz has squandered so much time here. And the question is, Oz hasn't done anything to change the trajectory all summer long, so what indication do we have that he's really going to change course in the next 3 months?

https://twitter.com/jimgeraghty/status/1554082722917777408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...