PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Lambsbread]

I am happy to inform you all that my friend is a Keyanetta-wanter.

Based and Malcolmpilled.

[Girlytree]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DoughertyKael/status/1428525104649195530
https://mobile.twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1428526110044672002

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

And this point I’m worried a competitive and expensive primary will cost us this seat (see 2016)

[TML]

And this point I’m worried a competitive and expensive primary will cost us this seat (see 2016)

I’m not sure that’s an accurate description of what happened back then. Instead, a more accurate description would be the Democratic establishment spending tons of money to stack the deck in favor of their preferred candidate, who surged ahead after trailing big in early primary polling but later turned out to be a lousy candidate in the general election. Sure, you could say polls were off back then, but if you examined how she behaved on the campaign trail, you can tell she was pretty uninspiring.

[Gracile]

If one subscribes to the belief that Conor Lamb is a strong candidate, I struggle to see how one can also argue that Sean Parnell isn't at least average.

Lamb's saving grace for underperforming Biden is that he did it by less than most House Democrats, but even then, he benefited from lagging trends.

I agree with this. Additionally, a scenario where the national environment isn't on the Democrats' side (likely in 2022) could easily put Parnell over the top based on his 2020 performance.

[Sir Mohamed]

And this point I’m worried a competitive and expensive primary will cost us this seat (see 2016)

Only in a sense a weaker candidate wins the primary with a pluarlity. That said, I still expect Lamb or Fetterman to come out on top. I'm just undecided who's the better GE candidate. If I were in PA, I'd heavily lean towards supporting Fetterman.

[Blair]

And this point I’m worried a competitive and expensive primary will cost us this seat (see 2016)

FWIW I still to this day can't see why any democrat thought Katie McGinty was a good choice- she'd never held elected office and her only electoral experience was coming 4th in a primary.

I don't think it's a similar situation though- the worse ones are always the above where an extremely weak candidate who is favoured by those in D.C is pushed and saved with SUPER-PAC money (see Luther Strange etc) when there's a stronger candidate in the field.

Both Lamb & Fetterman will have enough money to run strong campaigns & will get tested enough to prove they can win-including from the other candidates.   

[TML]

FWIW I still to this day can't see why any democrat thought Katie McGinty was a good choice- she'd never held elected office and her only electoral experience was coming 4th in a primary.  

The Democratic establishment thinks that the candidate who can raise the most money is the best candidate, and they coronated McGinty because of this line of thinking. This is also why they coronated people like Theresa Greenfield, Cal Cunningham, Sara Gideon, Amy McGrath, etc.

[cg41386]

If one subscribes to the belief that Conor Lamb is a strong candidate, I struggle to see how one can also argue that Sean Parnell isn't at least average.

Lamb's saving grace for underperforming Biden is that he did it by less than most House Democrats, but even then, he benefited from lagging trends.

I agree with this. Additionally, a scenario where the national environment isn't on the Democrats' side (likely in 2022) could easily put Parnell over the top based on his 2020 performance.

Based on his performance in one district. OK.

[Gracile]

If one subscribes to the belief that Conor Lamb is a strong candidate, I struggle to see how one can also argue that Sean Parnell isn't at least average.

Lamb's saving grace for underperforming Biden is that he did it by less than most House Democrats, but even then, he benefited from lagging trends.

I agree with this. Additionally, a scenario where the national environment isn't on the Democrats' side (likely in 2022) could easily put Parnell over the top based on his 2020 performance.

Based on his performance in one district. OK.

We obviously don't know how Parnell do in a statewide race yet, but my point is more that people shouldn't make him out to be a disaster candidate when he performed roughly similarly to Trump in a swingy district that's close to the statewide margin. At the very least, I think he would be close to Generic R.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If one subscribes to the belief that Conor Lamb is a strong candidate, I struggle to see how one can also argue that Sean Parnell isn't at least average.

Lamb's saving grace for underperforming Biden is that he did it by less than most House Democrats, but even then, he benefited from lagging trends.

I agree with this. Additionally, a scenario where the national environment isn't on the Democrats' side (likely in 2022) could easily put Parnell over the top based on his 2020 performance.

Based on his performance in one district. OK.

He outran Trump in a District where downballot Republicans typically run behind Presidential totals, and sometimes by a lot.

[Utah Neolib]

John Fetterman doesn’t have much electability without Wolf

[Sir Mohamed]

John Fetterman doesn’t have much electability without Wolf

On what are you basing this conclusion? I'm not sure Lamb is the most electable in this race. Fetterman for sure has an exciting background. If I were a PA resident, I'd very likely vote for him the primary.

[wbrocks67]

I'm surprised Lamb did not release any fundraising totals.

[Boobs]

How much longer are people going to have the “electability” argument and why their candidate is the most electable? Electability isn’t a set characteristic like some sort of video game trait. It’s a process and depends partially on the ability of a candidate to understand the environment and electorate and partially blind luck.

[President Johnson]

I'm surprised Lamb did not release any fundraising totals.

Maybe because he just entered the race? Fetterman and Kenyatta are in for a longer time.

[MT Treasurer]

How much longer are people going to have the “electability” argument and why their candidate is the most electable? Electability isn’t a set characteristic like some sort of video game trait. It’s a process and depends partially on the ability of a candidate to understand the environment and electorate and partially blind luck.

Case in point - the conventional wisdom about Ossoff/Warnock months before the election:

I haven't paid too much attention to the Georgia races, but is it fair to say Dems totally bombed recruiting here? Ossoff and some random pastor? Yikes.

Dem recruiting for both GA seats has been quite disappointing

Agreed. I think it's very telling that no remotely decent candidates decided to run for this seat. Ditto with Iowa and Texas.

I mean... who did GA have besides Abrams, McBath, and maybe Carter?

those 3 would be better than ossoff/tomlinson/warnock

The runoff turned both into strong candidates™.

[NewYorkExpress]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

[MargieCat]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

Why is that?

Do you think Shapiro is the wrong candidate for Governor (assuming he runs)?

[NewYorkExpress]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

Why is that?

Do you think Shapiro is the wrong candidate for Governor (assuming he runs)?

I just think Fetterman's problems wouldn't be as apparent in Governor's race, which is less likely to get nationalized than a Senate race will be.

Shapiro is the stronger of the two candidates in the Governor's race, but Fetterman can win the Governor's race, because it's less likely to be nationalized compared to the Senate race (see 2014 when Tom Corbett lost to Wolf despite a Republican wave, both nationally and in Pennsylvania.)

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

I honestly don't get the Cartwright statewide thing. Yeah, he works for his district, but in a race like this, someone like him and Lamb would be interchangeable to the regular average person.

[S019]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

I really don't get where this idea comes from where Kenyatta is too far left, but Fetterman isn't, if anything they're similarly left, Fetterman might even be slightly more leftist. As for Lamb, he's definitely pivoting the left a bit, and he was always less moderate than he let on.

[Utah Neolib]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

I honestly don't get the Cartwright statewide thing. Yeah, he works for his district, but in a race like this, someone like him and Lamb would be interchangeable to the regular average person.

I agree. Cartwright would be a perfect PA statewide candidate. He has views quite similar to Casey, and he’s quite popular. His district actually is somewhat similar to PA as a whole, so Cartwright would be a good statewide candidate. But Fetterman doesn’t have any real strengths,

[Mr.Phips]

Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the Democrats currently running right now.

Kenyatta is too far left to win a general election in Pennsylvania (though he might have been able to get away with it in a more Democratic year), Lamb won't win over base Democrats, and Fetterman should have run for Governor, quite honestly, as he just hasn't impressed me in this race.

I think the best possible candidate would have been Matt Cartwright, actually. I mean, sure we'd lose his seat, but Cartwright's likely going to lose reelection, unless a Dem Gerrymander were passed for some reason.

I honestly don't get the Cartwright statewide thing. Yeah, he works for his district, but in a race like this, someone like him and Lamb would be interchangeable to the regular average person.

I agree. Cartwright would be a perfect PA statewide candidate. He has views quite similar to Casey, and he’s quite popular. His district actually is somewhat similar to PA as a whole, so Cartwright would be a good statewide candidate. But Fetterman doesn’t have any real strengths,

I don’t think Cartwright could win a statewide primary.

[RogueBeaver]

Trump endorses Parnell.