IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not that it's Biden midterm, D's will be contesting FL, GA, NC, PA and WI, but Kim Reynolds is very popular and as long as she remains at Gov, Ernst and Grassley are gonna get reelected. We still have D's in Congressial districts in IA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grassley only won in 2016 due to Hillary's poor performance in IA, which won't be replicated in 2022, Mike Franken wants to run

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My prediction is this race is going to be overhyped. Likely R for now; small chance Ds breakthrough and win, but they need a strong canidate, a good environment nationally despite 2022 probably being a wave year, and some luck.

Your Prediction is way too overblown to Rs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sand would win if Covid by next yr is eased, of course D's would replicate the EC blue wall in this Environment, but we don't know what Covid will be like next yr

At this point D's win WI, PA, NH and GA goes to a Runoff and OH, NC or IA can make it 53 Senators in a D pVI 3.1/Environment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sand running for Senate would be a fool’s errand. He’s unlikely to win re-election as it is, but why would he choose a 0% chance of winning over a chance which is probably slightly above 0%?

IA will get close, so will OH and NC before the Election they always do, that's why Hassan is gonna win, Shaheen was trailing Scott Brown too

Today it would be a 51/49 Senate with GA going to a runoff, but that's today not tomorrow 500 days from now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Covid is better next yr and the Economy is booming we can win this seat.

Biden just passed stimulus checks for everyone and even Iowans appreciate it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA is wave insurance, D's are close enough to win in OH and NC, there could really be a chance that OH can vote for Tim Ryan since Josh Mandel is so polarizing especially to Afro Americans, and Dewine wins, and then of course there is NC and Koop is quite popular



D's are up 5 on Generic ballot, hat's more than the margin of error for all those Rs keep comparing 2018, we won OH, IA, FL and NC in 2008(12 and guess what the PVI was 0.5 over McCain and Romney

Afro American Kelly in MO seems promising to me,  too

In a boom Economy, I can see D's winning the PVI 0.6, in 500 days because 1400 cheques that Rs on this forum got is popular

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ashley Hinson would be a good gop recruit

She'd probably win by a larger margin than most, but this is Safe R regardless of who the Republican and Democratic candidates are.

You know D's won the PVI by 5.0 in 2008/2012 against McCain/Romney, and won OH, IA, NC and FL, these naysayers about IA, OH, NC arre ridiculous.  Guess what we lead on Generic ballot 47/42

The can be split votimg between Gov and Senator 2018 Brown/DeWine, Sinema/Ducey, 2020 Tillis/Koop

Sand/Franken/Reynolds, Ryan/DeWine, and Rubio/CRIST

IA was almost won by Greenfield in 2020,OH, IA, NC, FL are R based battlegrounds just like WI, PA, MI are D based battlegrounds.

If Rs can call contest NH and GA we can win IA, OH or NC

The only person is safe is Rubio, not DeSsntis whom can easily lose to Crist, no prominent D wants to take him on and the Economy isn't gonna be like this slow in 500 days and R voters received 2K cheques just like Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grassley needs to retire

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R

Please stop post padding.

PLSE ignore Chips he thinks IA, OH and NC are MO and IN and we won these states on a PVI 5.0 2008/12 he takes his ques from Election Guy, like what he says is GOLDEN AND WON'T EVER BE WRONG

The only state we won't win is FL, DeSantis is running with Rubio not with Scott like he almost lost in 2018 and Crist and Val Deming's are disadvantage to Rubio due to Kate's Law

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA, OH, NC are wave insurence anyways but we almost won this seat in 2020 l

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news I am optimistic, we can turn IA blue next Nov but winning IA 2, it can be 2/2 split instead of 3/1 R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Net gain for Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LOL she's going to lose easily.

Doomer, the Election is 500 days and Economy is improving all the time we are plus 10 on Generic ballot and that's wave insurance. If Rs were plus 10 they would be talking 100 seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Finkenauer will be crushed by Grassley, like all of his prior opponents, and assuming that he runs again-which it seems like he is going to at this point. The only question is whether or not she will manage to hold him under 60%.

Not gonna be crushed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map as I said before but no one knows what the Recovery is gonna be like in 500 days, and WI, PA, NV NH, AZ Leans D while GA goes to a Runoff, but until we get polling we can assume anything from wave insurance

The real danger is GA, due to a Runoff, Hassan with no voter suppression can beat Sununu

But, if we narrowly hold the H and Senate we still have to deal with Tester and Sinema on Filibuster reform in a 51 Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I will put it like this she has a 1/3 chance just like Ryan, Beasley and  Grayson has because we have critical H races it's not a scale of 10 but either a 2/3 chance or a 1/3 and she has a 1/3.

Just like Rs in WI, PA, NH, AZ, NV and GA have a 1/3 chance there to win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one knows what's gonna happen in the 2022 but Biden has the same exact Approvals as Bush W did in 2002, it's difficult to see Rs making significant gains and they haven't even won the PVI since 2014

2014 R plus 5
2016 D plus 2
2018 D plus 8
2020 D plus 4

Everyone including Snowlabrador thinks it's gonna be an R slide, we won PVI in 3 straight ELECTION

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa voted for Ernst last yr due to Kim Reynolds, we ran Patty Judge against Grassley in 2016, FINKEAUAR or Mauhlbauer aren't Patty Judge and IA like NH can have 3 females for Gov and Sen because Molly Kelly is thinking about running for Gov again in NH and Sununu will lose to Hassan without voter suppression but we need to see polls in these battleground states

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/IAFieldReport/status/1397984288646258688

Alright, cue the memes.

wouldn't she have any easier time running for her old seat (assuming no gerrymandering)

It’s hard to make IA-01 more Republican than the state itself, because most of the GOP advantage is in IA-04.

You know the Election is 16 mnths and Rs are -9 on Generic ballot the same as it was in 2018, because parents and people are still on Unemployment.

If Rs kept GA, we would have been cut off from 1400 stimulus

When are Rs gonna learn that Biden has the same Approvals as Bush W when he net seats in 2002

You guys never go to pbower2A Approvalls and see how D's are doing in wave insurance seats and that's not being a hack

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

INEVITABLE MAP with MRS. ABBY FINNEKAUER incoming:




Kidding aside, unless there's a Roy Moore like situation, this is Safe R, even without Grassley.

It's not safe R go to pbower2A Approvalls and Biden has a 59% and net positive rating in IA

Rs since blocking Commission are -9 on Generic ballot 49/40 in a QU poll on Generic ballot

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rob Sand ruled out a Senate run yesterday, will likely run for Governor. At least that has a greater than zero shot of flipping, unlike the Senate race.

https://www.1380kcim.com/2021/05/27/state-auditor-rob-sand-rules-out-potential-run-for-u-s-senate/

You guy is really don't understand how waves work, we didn't net 33H seats in 2017 we won them on ADS in 2018.  This is 2021, 16 mnths prior to Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wave insurence candidates like Fink, Whaley and Hassan I am optimistic about due to fact Females whom are caretakers are still getting Stimulus cheques thanks to Biden in child tax credits

That's why Biden has a net positive approvals,and Pelosi will bring it home to Ds in 500 days in the H and Senate

Eventhough the 2K cheques are gone

If Rs kept the Senate, of Ron Johnson had his way we would be cut off, he objected to 1200 that's why we had to wait til April for our Stimulus not during Xmas and he is opponenr to a fourth round payments, 1400 again would do us well

I have no illusion that it's a 303, map now, but we have 16mnths til the Election. I always said the 278 Nate Silver blue wall but we need to Expand to keep the H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why would she think this race is winnable when Iowa voted for Trump by more than her a congressional district she could not win.

The Ds are plus 9 on Generic Ballot the same as I'm 2018, the last poll had Reynolds at 47/46 v Generic D,, Conservatives forget 2008/12 when we won by PVI 6.0 OH, IA, NC and FL and we didn't win 33H seats in 2017/ we won them in 2018, this is still 2021 16 mnths before an Election

As D's we don't think narrow wins, we believe I'm blue waves and we got 4 Congressional districts that are winnable

Trump margin was inflatable in 2020 before the Insurrectionists, he has cratered to 32% from 46.9%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why would she think this race is winnable when Iowa voted for Trump by more than her a congressional district she could not win.

Thank you for saying what needs to be said. Finkenauer is a sacrificial lamb.

QU HAS DS PLUS 9 ON GENERIC BALLOT, you was bragging when Rs tied it


https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3810


QU poll plus 9 the Rs have Crater since blocking the Commission