IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[MT Treasurer]

Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley leads Democrat Abby Finkenauer by 18 percentage points among likely voters in an early test of what could be a marquee matchup in the 2022 midterms.

The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll results show Grassley leads 55% to 37% among likely voters. Another 7% are not sure who they would vote for in a head-to-head matchup, and 1% would not vote.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/iowa-poll-chuck-grassley-leads-abby-finkenauer-in-test-possible-senate-match/8378103002/

This should be fun, let’s get a thread going about the marquee Senate battle of 2022. Can Republicans stop the Fink or is strong incumbent Joni Ernst's motorcycle plabook just not replicable in a midterm?

[SnowLabrador]

Theresa Greenfield lost by 7 points despite leading in most polls. Iowa is gone for Democrats, full stop. Safe R even if Grassley retires.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Titanium R if Chuck runs again.. Safe R if Governor Reynolds or Pat Grassley run.


When was the last time Chuck received less than 60% of the vote ? 1980..?

[Mr.Phips]

Theresa Greenfield lost by 7 points despite leading in most polls. Iowa is gone for Democrats, full stop. Safe R even if Grassley retires.

Agreed.

[Tekken_Guy]

This should be fun, let’s get a thread going about the marquee Senate battle of 2022. Can Republicans stop Rob Sand or is strong incumbent Joni Ernst's motorcycle plabook just not replicable in a midterm?

In all seriousness, Likely/Safe R, but Kim Reynolds (if she’s even interested in a run) vs. Pat Grassley could make for an interesting primary if Chuck Grassley retires.

I’m on team Hinson here. Pat is not entitled to his grandpa’s seat.

[KaiserDave]

This race is Safe R, period

[Left Wing]

Who would win a Feenstra v Hinson primary?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is this really necessary?

[WD]

Tossup. More winnable for Democrats than GA imo

Just imo

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Democrats should stop beating around the bush and pick the one candidate that justifiably scared and preoccupied Chuck Grassley this cycle.

Pidgin 2022.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Tossup. More winnable for Democrats than GA imo

Just imo

I agree. Georgia is completely impossible for Dems to win. Why even try?

Iowa can easily be won if dems run Dukakis.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I guess Democrats might have a hope if Steve King staggers through a split field to win the Republican nomination, but that's even less likely than Greitens getting the MO nomination.

[SnowLabrador]

Who would win a Feenstra v Hinson primary?

In my opinion, Feenstra. His district has more Republican voters than does Hinson's.

[2016]

This should be fun, let’s get a thread going about the marquee Senate battle of 2022. Can Republicans stop Rob Sand or is strong incumbent Joni Ernst's motorcycle plabook just not replicable in a midterm?

In all seriousness, Likely/Safe R, but Kim Reynolds (if she’s even interested in a run) vs. Pat Grassley could make for an interesting primary if Chuck Grassley retires.

I’m on team Hinson here. Pat is not entitled to his grandpa’s seat.

You're stupid! Let Ashley Hinson win a few Congressional Races first like for example Mike Fitzpatrick before you throw her into a Statewide Race.

[Tekken_Guy]

This should be fun, let’s get a thread going about the marquee Senate battle of 2022. Can Republicans stop Rob Sand or is strong incumbent Joni Ernst's motorcycle plabook just not replicable in a midterm?

In all seriousness, Likely/Safe R, but Kim Reynolds (if she’s even interested in a run) vs. Pat Grassley could make for an interesting primary if Chuck Grassley retires.

I’m on team Hinson here. Pat is not entitled to his grandpa’s seat.

You're stupid! Let Ashley Hinson win a few Congressional Races first like for example Mike Fitzpatrick before you throw her into a Statewide Race.

Jacky Rosen, Steve Daines, and Tom Cotton agree.

[Xing]

I dunno man, I think the Cerro Gordo Trump/Greenfield #populists will be out in full force in 2022. Tilt R at most tbh, maybe Republicans should prioritize AZ/CO/NV over this one.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

If Grassley retires, I would like an entertaining GOP primary to happen at the very least!

[Vosem]

Is Grassley even that likely to retire? I feel like people were certain he was leaving in 2010 and 2016, but it never pans out. (Although he'll actually be slightly older by 2022 than Inhofe was in 2020...or Inouye in 2010...or, by just a few months, Byrd in 2006...so unless I'm missing something a successful reelection bid would mean the oldest winner of a Senate election since Thurmond in 1996.)

[Heisenberg]

This should be fun, let’s get a thread going about the marquee Senate battle of 2022. Can Republicans stop Rob Sand or is strong incumbent Joni Ernst's motorcycle plabook just not replicable in a midterm?

In all seriousness, Likely/Safe R, but Kim Reynolds (if she’s even interested in a run) vs. Pat Grassley could make for an interesting primary if Chuck Grassley retires.

I’m on team Hinson here. Pat is not entitled to his grandpa’s seat.

You're stupid! Let Ashley Hinson win a few Congressional Races first like for example Mike Fitzpatrick before you throw her into a Statewide Race.

Jacky Rosen, Steve Daines, and Tom Cotton agree.

Rosen and Cotton, I’ll give you (though Rosen in no small part jumped to the Senate because her House seat was a Trump 16 seat and to the right of Nevada-at large).
Daines doesn’t count because his House seat was statewide, so the “never run statewide” is null.
Anyway, I currently expect Reynolds to run for re-election. Feenstra and Hinson may want to just keep their House seats, but we’ll see. Also, don’t discount Lt Gov Adam Gregg, or any state legislator or political outsider. IIRC Ernst was kind of a “surprise” candidate last time around.

[Tekken_Guy]

This should be fun, let’s get a thread going about the marquee Senate battle of 2022. Can Republicans stop Rob Sand or is strong incumbent Joni Ernst's motorcycle plabook just not replicable in a midterm?

In all seriousness, Likely/Safe R, but Kim Reynolds (if she’s even interested in a run) vs. Pat Grassley could make for an interesting primary if Chuck Grassley retires.

I’m on team Hinson here. Pat is not entitled to his grandpa’s seat.

You're stupid! Let Ashley Hinson win a few Congressional Races first like for example Mike Fitzpatrick before you throw her into a Statewide Race.

Jacky Rosen, Steve Daines, and Tom Cotton agree.

Rosen and Cotton, I’ll give you (though Rosen in no small part jumped to the Senate because her House seat was a Trump 16 seat and to the right of Nevada-at large).
Daines doesn’t count because his House seat was statewide, so the “never run statewide” is null.
Anyway, I currently expect Reynolds to run for re-election. Feenstra and Hinson may want to just keep their House seats, but we’ll see. Also, don’t discount Lt Gov Adam Gregg, or any state legislator or political outsider. IIRC Ernst was kind of a “surprise” candidate last time around.

Problem is this is likely both candidates' last chance at a Senate seat. Ernst is still quite young and won't be going anywhere any time soon. And whoever moves into Grassley's seat will probably stay there for a while as well.

[tosk]

adam gregg would be one of my first picks to replace grassley. Ashley Hinson would also be awesome. Completely expect GOP to hold the seat.

[SnowLabrador]

There's literally no way this flips. Republican voters don't care about scandals when it comes to their own politicians.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats should stop beating around the bush and pick the one candidate that justifiably scared and preoccupied Chuck Grassley this cycle.

Pidgin 2022.

It wasn’t Grassley's fault: He was a strong incumbent in an excellent year for his party and even had Ernst's motorcycle brigade at his command — everything seemed to go according to plan; that is, until he heard an unmistakable sound above and looked up at the sky. Overcome by a sudden feeling of consternation and fear, he uttered the final words of his campaign, which still reverberate throughout the streets of IA: "I can’t do this."

[Hope For A New Era]

We'll have to see what 2022's environment looks like. But it will lack Trump-only voters, so Ds will at least have that on their side. Insert comment about 2018 and the 75% D delegation here.

Starting at Lean R, but making predictions two years out is a little silly.

Crossing my fingers for Steve King running. McCaskill strategy might work.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My prediction is this race is going to be overhyped. Likely R for now; small chance Ds breakthrough and win, but they need a strong canidate, a good environment nationally despite 2022 probably being a wave year, and some luck.