IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[Tekken_Guy]

This should be fun, let’s get a thread going about the marquee Senate battle of 2022. Can Republicans stop Rob Sand or is strong incumbent Joni Ernst's motorcycle plabook just not replicable in a midterm?

In all seriousness, Likely/Safe R, but Kim Reynolds (if she’s even interested in a run) vs. Pat Grassley could make for an interesting primary if Chuck Grassley retires.

I’m on team Hinson here. Pat is not entitled to his grandpa’s seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

This should be fun, let’s get a thread going about the marquee Senate battle of 2022. Can Republicans stop Rob Sand or is strong incumbent Joni Ernst's motorcycle plabook just not replicable in a midterm?

In all seriousness, Likely/Safe R, but Kim Reynolds (if she’s even interested in a run) vs. Pat Grassley could make for an interesting primary if Chuck Grassley retires.

I’m on team Hinson here. Pat is not entitled to his grandpa’s seat.

You're stupid! Let Ashley Hinson win a few Congressional Races first like for example Mike Fitzpatrick before you throw her into a Statewide Race.

Jacky Rosen, Steve Daines, and Tom Cotton agree.

[Tekken_Guy]

This should be fun, let’s get a thread going about the marquee Senate battle of 2022. Can Republicans stop Rob Sand or is strong incumbent Joni Ernst's motorcycle plabook just not replicable in a midterm?

In all seriousness, Likely/Safe R, but Kim Reynolds (if she’s even interested in a run) vs. Pat Grassley could make for an interesting primary if Chuck Grassley retires.

I’m on team Hinson here. Pat is not entitled to his grandpa’s seat.

You're stupid! Let Ashley Hinson win a few Congressional Races first like for example Mike Fitzpatrick before you throw her into a Statewide Race.

Jacky Rosen, Steve Daines, and Tom Cotton agree.

Rosen and Cotton, I’ll give you (though Rosen in no small part jumped to the Senate because her House seat was a Trump 16 seat and to the right of Nevada-at large).
Daines doesn’t count because his House seat was statewide, so the “never run statewide” is null.
Anyway, I currently expect Reynolds to run for re-election. Feenstra and Hinson may want to just keep their House seats, but we’ll see. Also, don’t discount Lt Gov Adam Gregg, or any state legislator or political outsider. IIRC Ernst was kind of a “surprise” candidate last time around.

Problem is this is likely both candidates' last chance at a Senate seat. Ernst is still quite young and won't be going anywhere any time soon. And whoever moves into Grassley's seat will probably stay there for a while as well.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/15/iowa-cindy-axne-doesnt-rule-out-2022-senate-governor-run-campaign-democrats/4177132001/

I mean, she's going to lose either way. The question is if she wants to lose her House seat or lose in a bid for Senate.

There is no way her district doesn’t get more Dem.  Polk county is growing and the district will need to shed rural territory.

What’s there to lose? Unless they’re worried about one of the other 3 seats coming back into play, the Iowa GOP will give Axne a swing seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/15/iowa-cindy-axne-doesnt-rule-out-2022-senate-governor-run-campaign-democrats/4177132001/

I mean, she's going to lose either way. The question is if she wants to lose her House seat or lose in a bid for Senate.

There is no way her district doesn’t get more Dem.  Polk county is growing and the district will need to shed rural territory.

What’s there to lose? Unless they’re worried about one of the other 3 seats coming back into play, the Iowa GOP will give Axne a swing seat.

IA-01 and IA-02 did not go for Trump by big margins.  Also, Polk county cannot be split.  Any district with Polk county in it will be no worse for Axne than the current district.

But both districts are trending rightward. They can make IA-4 less Republican in exchange for shoring up 1 and 2.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/IAFieldReport/status/1397984288646258688

Alright, cue the memes.

wouldn't she have any easier time running for her old seat (assuming no gerrymandering)

It’s hard to make IA-01 more Republican than the state itself, because most of the GOP advantage is in IA-04.

[Tekken_Guy]

Might we get a Hinson/Finkenauer rematch in 2022 if Grassley retires? Or does Pat have that nomination on lock?

[Tekken_Guy]

The race will be a lot closer without Chuck Grassley than with him, but unless Steve King somehow ends up the GOP nominee, Finkenauer will lose.

[Tekken_Guy]

The only retirement still up in the air is Johnson, at this point.