IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[Calthrina950]

Likely R. Too early to call it Safe, but it probably will be in the end, especially if Grassley runs.

Honestly, it’s Safe R no matter what.

Agreed. The only difference is that Grassley will get over 60% of the vote, like he always has after he was first elected, while his Republican successor would get "only" 53-57% of the vote.

[Calthrina950]

Rob Sand IS considering

https://www.thegazette.com/state-government/state-auditor-rob-sand-considering-run-for-iowa-governor-or-u-s-senate/

He would lose. He might hold Grassley to "only" double digits (assuming Grassley does indeed run for reelection, which he seems to be leaning towards), but I doubt he would come closer than that. Against any candidate not named Grassley, Sand would come within single digits, but still lose by a sizable enough margin.

[Calthrina950]

Rob Sand IS considering

https://www.thegazette.com/state-government/state-auditor-rob-sand-considering-run-for-iowa-governor-or-u-s-senate/

He would lose. He might hold Grassley to "only" double digits (assuming Grassley does indeed run for reelection, which he seems to be leaning towards), but I doubt he would come closer than that. Against any candidate not named Grassley, Sand would come within single digits, but still lose by a sizable enough margin.

He could, but I’m not sure I agree that Sand would come within single digits against some generic R not named Grassley. If Republicans can’t win a heavily white, considerably rural/small-town, fairly religious, and somewhat non-college-educated Trump +8/Ernst +7 state that’s zooming rightward by double digits after two years of an extremely aggressive Democratic trifecta, chances are the midterms will be somewhat of a disappointment for them. Even in a more neutral year, I would expect a double-digit blowout in this state at this point.

A double-digit win wouldn't surprise me either, but I think Sand, as a incumbent statewide official, would enjoy somewhat of a boost compared to Greenfield, who was not an officeholder when she ran against Ernst. And as I've said above, I think he would lose regardless, and that it wouldn't be particularly close. It probably would be by a margin similar to those that Greenfield and Biden lost by, assuming the Republican nominee is not Grassley.

[Calthrina950]

Pat Grassley unlikely to run?

There are rumors that Grassley wants to elevate his grandson, statehouse Speaker Pat Grassley, into the Senate. But that isn’t happening, according to the senator and his allies.

“I know for a fact that is not true,” said state Rep. Lee Hein, a Republican close to Pat Grassley. He said Pat Grassley is not interested in being a senator and encouraged Chuck to run again.

Also... if Tester says it’s competitive, it will be competitive (because clearly everything Tester does is 10D chess and he’s never wrong about anything):

“God, I hate to give you an on-the-record comment on this,” sighed Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who led Democrats’ campaign arm in 2016. “He’s the difference between whether this is a competitive race, or whether Chuck Grassley just wins again.”

I wouldn't be surprised if the elder Grassley decides to follow the path of his contemporary, Don Young in the House (they and Dianne Feinstein were all born in the same year, 1933) and serve until he literally is carried out of the U.S. Capitol on a gurney. Grassley said a few months ago that he won't announce his decision about running for reelection until this fall at the earliest.

[Calthrina950]

Finkenauer will be crushed by Grassley, like all of his prior opponents, and assuming that he runs again-which it seems like he is going to at this point. The only question is whether or not she will manage to hold him under 60%.

[Calthrina950]

Finkenauer will be crushed by Grassley, like all of his prior opponents, and assuming that he runs again-which it seems like he is going to at this point. The only question is whether or not she will manage to hold him under 60%.

Thank you for saying what needs to be said. The memes need to stop.

I'm not opposed to the memes. I don't think it's wrong, however, to point out the reality of the situation here at intervals, though.

[Calthrina950]

Take it for whatever you think it's worth.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1406726078295642114?s=20

This means nothing. Grassley remains popular, and will win yet another landslide if he chooses to run in this increasingly Republican state.

[Calthrina950]

Unbeatable titan FINK IN:

https://twitter.com/Abby4Iowa/status/1418194238039339010?s=20

How much will she lose by? Grassley will beat her just like he did his seven previous opponents, and it won't be close. However, given polarization and given the recent polls we've seen about his approval ratings, it's possible that she will give him his closest margin of victory since he defeated Culver in 1980 and become the first of his opponents since Culver to crack 40%. But it's still probably going to be a double digit loss, however.

[Calthrina950]

If Ol’ Chuck doesn’t run, I don’t think Pat Grassley is guaranteed to run for this seat. I see Ashley Hinson probably doing it, or Randy Feenstra.

It would be embarrassing for Finkenauer if Hinson did end up being her opponent and she lost to her for the second consecutive time, potentially by more than she did in the congressional race last year.

[Calthrina950]

I wonder if Finkenauer would win even two counties against Grassley.  She'd carry Johnson, but that might be it.

If so, then she would replicate the performance of Grassley's last two opponents (Roxanne Conlin and Patty Judge) who only won Johnson County in 2010 and 2016.

[Calthrina950]

I wonder if Finkenauer would win even two counties against Grassley.  She'd carry Johnson, but that might be it.

If so, then she would replicate the performance of Grassley's last two opponents (Roxanne Conlin and Patty Judge) who only won Johnson County in 2010 and 2016.

Right.

Anyway, on second thought, Finkenauer would probably also be favored in Polk and Story Counties, and maybe Linn as well.  Due to increased polarization, Grassley’s victory could easily be held to under 20 points this time.  Or maybe not, if it’s an especially good year for GOP.

I've made these points myself. Finkenauer could become the first of Grassley's opponents in over four decades to carry more than one county and to receive at least 40% of the vote. Nevertheless, I'd still expect her to lose by double digits.

[Calthrina950]

Grassley will run again IMO. It's funny, besides his first victory he's never gotten under 60% (60.1% in 2016.) I wonder if he finally will this time?

I think so. I wouldn't be surprised if he fell down to 55-58% of the vote this time.

[Calthrina950]

🚨🚨🚨 Potential Selzer/DMR SHOCK poll incoming 🚨🚨🚨

A new Iowa Poll will explore Gov. Kim Reynolds’ job approval on the ongoing pandemic, economy and education.  

Findings on those questions regarding the Republican governor and others will be released on DesMoinesRegister.com beginning at 6 p.m. Saturday and will appear in the Des Moines Sunday Register.  

Other articles charting the opinions of Iowans — including on a hypothetical matchup between U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley and his would-be opponent former U.S. Rep. Abby Finkenauer; COVID-19 vaccine mandates; President Joe Biden’s performance and abortion —  will be released over subsequent days.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/17/iowa-poll-new-survey-examines-kim-reynolds-chuck-grassley-covid-pandemic-vaccine-september-2021/8368257002/

Any predictions?

Selzer is Iowa's gold standard for electoral polling, so I look forward to what they will say.

[Calthrina950]

I'm not surprised. He will probably die in office. Finkenauer is headed to a double-digit loss next year, against a man who's been in office since before she was born. However, as I've said before, she may do better than any of his opponents have since his first, Culver.

[Calthrina950]

Since Grassley has decided to run for reelection, I wouldn't be surprised if Leahy does as well, at this point.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah, not all wins for Iowa Democrats in 2018 were because muh wave year. In 2020, if you notice, they survived even as the Orange Man (Trump) swept the state by 8 points. Maybe people like Cindy Axne are in danger, but not a guy like Tom Miller. Maybe the race will feature a GOP incumbent, and it will probably be less of a landslide, but Tom Miller won't lose reelection when he's been in office for so long. He's the Democratic Chuck Grassley. The fact is that long tenure breeds crossover appeal in a small, rural state like Iowa, and that's what leads to Chuck Grassley (R) and Tom Miller (D) both winning in landslides regardless of year The race will still probably be contested in 2020, and I think it's unlikely Miller will break, say, 60%, but I think he'll make it by at least 5 points at the very least no matter what else. And maybe in a grand upset, Miller could lose. But there's absolutely nothing definitive or certain about that. I'd say it's just as likely that he wins by double digits that he loses (probably he'll win by the high single-digits or low double-digits). Rob Sand, State Auditor, is much more likely to lose in 2022, since he was just swept up in the Democratic wave of 2022. But as I said, people like Fitzgerald and Miller are wave-proof at this point.

EDIT: It seems that in 2014, when he actually faced an opponent, Miller won by just 12 points. So there may be some level of uncertainty as to his reelection in 2022, but it's still outrageous to assert he will definitely lose in 2022 or that the only reason he won in 2018 was because muh wave year.

K

He won by 12 points in 2014. Maybe my statements were exaggerations but Miller and Fitzgerald will definitely be favourites in their races in 2022 if they run (if either retires, though, the open seat will be likely-to-safe Republican).

There have been numerous examples in just the past decade alone (i.e. Blanche Lincoln, Claire McCaskill, Bill Nelson, John Perdue, Ted Strickland, etc.) of incumbents who've lost reelection after winning their previous races by landslides (or near-landslides). Given Iowa's strong Republican trend, the pro-Republican nature of next year's midterm environment, and increasing polarization, I wouldn't be surprised if Fitzgerald and Miller meet a similar fate. They could very well still win next year, but if they do, it will be by sharply reduced margins compared to 2018.

[Calthrina950]

Hopefully, Dem donors also agree with her and dumb millions of dollars on that race

I’m actually unironically considering the possibility that she’s an Atlas poster/browser who just launched her campaign for the memes. What she said in that MSNBC clip sounds like first-class parody of all the IA takes on this forum ("again, in 2022, Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot", "in 2018, three out of four Congressional districts went to Democrats", "Republicans know they can’t win without Donald Trump on the ballot", pushing January 6 as the most 'effective' line of attack against IA Republicans, etc.).

If you’re actually reading this thread, Abby, I love you and thank you so much for this.

The most recent poll I saw showed Grassley leading Finkenauer by 18% (55-37%). She'll probably break 40%, and thereby become the first of Grassley's opponents since Culver to do so, but she won't do much better than that. And she's also seems to forget that she lost reelection last year.

[Calthrina950]

Why does Grassley lead in Atlas endorsements?

Franken’s sexual harassment allegations

Partly this, but Grassley is also seen as a "grandfatherly" figure by some, especially given his Twitter presence.

[Calthrina950]

FWIW, last week Iowa conducted a mock election among school-aged children, which it called the "Iowa Youth Straw Poll." The results for the mock Senate election was Grassley 61.2 - Franken 38.8 (it should be noted that past editions of this mock election have nailed the winners of all statewide contests in IA since 2012, even if the margins may have been off).

I guess children in Iowa view Grassley as analogous to their grandparents.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/scj/status/1589060759555801095


Sioux City Journal decides for the first time... to not endorse Chuck Grassley. (Endorsing Mike Franken Instead).

They still endorsed Reynolds and Feenstra, so I'm assuming it's a rebuke of Grassley due to his age. Moreover, Franken is from that region of the state, if I'm not mistaken, so it may also be a reflection of support for the "native son".