IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[SCNCmod]

BTW- here is a short summary of Mike Franken's military bio (from Wiki):

 Michael Franken (Military short Bio)
From 2011 to 2012, Franken commanded the Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) in Djibouti, Africa, responsible for the U.S. military activity throughout East Africa and in the islands of the Indian Ocean.

In Washington, D.C., he served a fellowship in congressional affairs for the Office of the Secretary of the Navy; as the political-military chair in the Chief of Naval Operations' Executive Panel, in Navy's Plans and Strategy Deep Blue staff; in the Assessments Division in support of Navy's representation in the Joint Requirements Oversight Council and in the Joint Staff's Joint Operations Division overseeing U.S. Pacific Command operations. He presented the worldwide orders book to Secretary Donald Rumsfeld from 2003 to 2005 and was the first military officer to serve as a legislative fellow for Senator Ted Kennedy.[1]

Starting in January 2015, Franken was the first director of the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency when it was created through the merger of the Joint POW/MIA Accounting Command, the Defense Prisoner of War/Missing Personnel Office, and parts of the Air Force's Life Sciences Lab.[4] The Defense POW/MIA Accounting agency is an 800-person defense agency which oversees the location and retrieval of the remains of American veterans of foreign wars.[2]

[bagelman]

Franken is from Sioux County, one of the most right wing places in Iowa. Add in his military background and you get someone you wouldn't expect to be a Democrat, let alone run as one.

I heard some rumor about Franken's having some icky opinion of neurodivergent people a while back, but I'm not able to find anything on it, so I may have been misinformed.

The Selzer poll was a shocker but it's also an outlier, with most polls still showing very good leads for Grassley. I'd still rather be a Grassley supporter than a Franken supporter with that in mind, and if we get yet another 2010/2014 style red wave then a potential upset would be near-impossible even if Grassely gets on the Senate floor to praise President Bush's tough stance on the Soviet Union.

If voters are willing to vote for Dr. Oz the TV scammer selling miracle diet pills because Joe Biden personally raised prices at the store and personally refuses to end the war in Ukraine then a much more conservative state is willing to vote for a fossil. Likely R.

[SCNCmod]

Iowa Senate Debate (From Oct 20... which was a week after the Des Moines Register Poll)

https://twitter.com/LiberallyHappy/status/1582947307036606464



I have a hard time imagining that Grassley moved up in the polls following this debate (I would bet the opposite may be true).  And my guess is that Political Debates are more widely viewed in Iowa than most states.

The Des Moines Register Poll has a long history of being the most accurate.  So if you were to assume the polls were at 46-43 going in to this debate.... My guess is the race is close to a virtual tie now. (*The Debate was Wed or Thursday- so I think no polls have been released that factor in any movement that may have resulted from the debate.  The next Des Moines Register poll should be telling, one way or the other).

**Any undecided or sway-able voters that were unsure about voting for Grassley (due to his age)... are definitely unlikely to vote for him after the debate (He was cranky, rude to the moderators,  completely inflexible, almost childish when trying to pull off political maneuvers of changing the subject etc, deflective and evasive on the topics of Abortion and Jan 6, and although knowledgeable on existing legacy issues- still sometimes out of touch with details and came across like he would not be great at sort of emerging type issues).

[SCNCmod]

Any updates from ppl in Iowa- does Franken still seem to have growing momentum?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's important to note that Trafalgar despite it's R bias showing Rs ahead, no way GRISHAM and Walz loses or CCM is showing a 303 map, our best chance is a 53)46)1 map , and we can be down to 51/49 losing GA in a runoff,  but it's votes that count so IA, NC, and FL can be upsets only if we win the H

There is no way Barnes, CCM and Sisolak loses even in this  Environment , Laxalt lead faded last time when he ran for Gov because Early vote overwhelmed the Same day R vote because LAXALT was favored to beat Sisolak in 2018

That's why Obama is traveling to WI, PA because he knows too it's a 303 map he just happened to win the PVI D 51/47 with red states which isn't the case anymore if we win the PVI by 3 it's a 53/46/1 S or a 51)49 S or a 52/48 S

[bagelman]

Why does Grassley lead in Atlas endorsements?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Why does Grassley lead in Atlas endorsements?

Because he's a Nice Guy FF Moderate Hero

[SCNCmod]

I'm a little confused by the 3 comments above... or don't fully understand. I can't tell whether or not there is sarcasm in some of them... and may just be out of the loop on some.

If there is an upset in Iowa... that defies certain general election models- I think it will be because not enough attention was paid to a few unique factors relating to Grassley, have been underestimated or overlooked (Mainly the fact that Grassley would be 96 at the end of the next term- and this is the 1st election ever- that Grassley is running with a negative job approval.  

These new Grassley factors open the door, but do not ensure a grassley defeat.... This opening has to coincide with a Dem candidate who can generate some excitement, while also being palatable to broad swath of voters in Iowa.  Franken has surprisingly- ended up being a stronger candidate than expected- and seems to be generating excitement (albeit late in the cycle) and also seems palatable to a broad spectrum of voters- due to the fact that its hard to paint him as an extremely liberal,etc).

I think he is a candidate that comes across as undoubtedly qualified and extremely well versed on any issue.  Granted, i also think this can explain his slow start (as he talks in sort of a Senate Speak/professorial manner)... but Iowa is one of the few states that has enabled enough candidate/voter interaction, for Franken to win over undecided & moderate voters).

I may end up being completely wrong- but i think Iowa will be razor close and the result that shocks the most people, and bucks generally accepted broad/ national voting maps.

To me, it feels like some of the late surging Iowa President primary campaigns

[Ferguson97]

Why does Grassley lead in Atlas endorsements?

Franken’s sexual harassment allegations

[Calthrina950]

Why does Grassley lead in Atlas endorsements?

Franken’s sexual harassment allegations

Partly this, but Grassley is also seen as a "grandfatherly" figure by some, especially given his Twitter presence.

[SCNCmod]

In the debate he definitely wasn't the likeable grandfather- he was a shoe-in to star in Grumpy Old Men.

[NewYorkExpress]

The first thing McConnell and Schumer need to agree on is that Franken will not be seated if he wins.

We can't have a politician with sexual assault allegations in the Senate.

[SCNCmod]

The first thing McConnell and Schumer need to agree on is that Franken will not be seated if he wins.

We can't have a politician with sexual assault allegations in the Senate.

I think you are referring to Al Franken (Former Minnesota Senator).

This is Mike Franken (Recently retired 3 Star Admiral in the Navy) is not related to Al Franken.

[SCNCmod]

Here is a recent article highlighting some feedback from voters:

https://www.thegazette.com/campaigns-elections/can-mike-franken-upset-iowa-political-icon-chuck-grassley-these-national-dems-think-so/

[Хahar 🤔]

The first thing McConnell and Schumer need to agree on is that Franken will not be seated if he wins.

We can't have a politician with sexual assault allegations in the Senate.

I think you are referring to Al Franken (Former Minnesota Senator).

This is Mike Franken (Recently retired 3 Star Admiral in the Navy) is not related to Al Franken.

There are also allegations against Mike Franken.

[SCNCmod]

The first thing McConnell and Schumer need to agree on is that Franken will not be seated if he wins.

We can't have a politician with sexual assault allegations in the Senate.

I think you are referring to Al Franken (Former Minnesota Senator).

This is Mike Franken (Recently retired 3 Star Admiral in the Navy) is not related to Al Franken.

There are also allegations against Mike Franken.

He was accused of a kiss... by a campaign staffer who had just been fired.  Also- there are sources saying this was released by a prior Franken Campaign manager ( I think from 2020 run, who was not rehired for the 2022 campaign) in concert with Grassley Campaign (although they apparently stayed behind the scenes... and likely Grassley himself was not aware/consulted).

So the claim was that she (and another staffer) her both fired... then at some point after firing, Mike Franken kissed her... And - i think the venue was in an public setting.... yet there has been no evidence.  He Flatly said - it Never happened.  Not that it is evidence- But its worth noting that he's been married for 40 years, and there is no prior history of allegations.

And apparently Iowa voters seem to not take the allegation has much merit... nor does it seemed to get mentioned in any followup coverage of the campaign.

But i think given the facts here- At the very least- there is no room to even suggest he should not be seated as a Senator... so i think the comment was confusing with Al Franken.


**. The case was closed by police .. as "unfounded.".  

The Des Moines Register wrote: "According to the report, Strope-Boggus "did not describe any sexual intent (by Franken) nor any intent to harm her"

[SCNCmod]

Since there is no coverage of the race.. here is a video of just 1 day of campaign stops in Iowa ...that seems to indicate a pretty healthy grassroots style campaign building:

https://twitter.com/frankenforiowa/status/1584277732396974080



Also- here is a short video from early in campaign- that i think is probably a background type message that is similar to Franken's pitch to rural iowa on the campaign trail:

https://twitter.com/frankenforiowa/status/1581683878905143296

[SCNCmod]

Pretty good article today in The Atlantic- given a good broad summary view of the Iowa Senate election.

(The 1 thing i would have liked to hear more analysis on, is the grassroots momentum that has propelled Mile Franken into striking distance... ie How strong is it? ... Is it growing or weakening? etc).

But fairly thorough otherwise.

Here is the link:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/10/chuck-grassley-iowa-senate-election-michael-franken/671936/

[walleye26]

Pretty good article today in The Atlantic- given a good broad summary view of the Iowa Senate election.

(The 1 thing i would have liked to hear more analysis on, is the grassroots momentum that has propelled Mile Franken into striking distance... ie How strong is it? ... Is it growing or weakening? etc).

But fairly thorough otherwise.

Here is the link:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/10/chuck-grassley-iowa-senate-election-michael-franken/671936/

I also wonder if part of the reason that this is close is that Franken can do some retail politics because this race has flown under the radar-as a result, there haven’t been national Dems bringing attention here and that has maybe made Franken seem above it all? I don’t know.

[MT Treasurer]

This race is not close lol

Also, don’t be surprised if Selzer's final poll *suddenly* shows Grassley with a double-digit lead.

[TML]

FWIW, last week Iowa conducted a mock election among school-aged children, which it called the "Iowa Youth Straw Poll." The results for the mock Senate election was Grassley 61.2 - Franken 38.8 (it should be noted that past editions of this mock election have nailed the winners of all statewide contests in IA since 2012, even if the margins may have been off).

[Calthrina950]

FWIW, last week Iowa conducted a mock election among school-aged children, which it called the "Iowa Youth Straw Poll." The results for the mock Senate election was Grassley 61.2 - Franken 38.8 (it should be noted that past editions of this mock election have nailed the winners of all statewide contests in IA since 2012, even if the margins may have been off).

I guess children in Iowa view Grassley as analogous to their grandparents.

[SCNCmod]

FWIW, last week Iowa conducted a mock election among school-aged children, which it called the "Iowa Youth Straw Poll." The results for the mock Senate election was Grassley 61.2 - Franken 38.8 (it should be noted that past editions of this mock election have nailed the winners of all statewide contests in IA since 2012, even if the margins may have been off).

I think those mock elections are generally reliable- in that kids typically vote for who they hear their parents talk about.

That said- if there is going to be an exception... this is the race:
1) Grassley has almost universal name ID, likely even among kids. So he would get a lot of default votes.
2) Franken is a come-from-behind grassroots candidate- so less likely to have filtered down to the kids yet.
3) 2012 is only 10 years... and there is likely no momentum candidate that has won in the since 2012 ... that would test this exception.
4) This Senate election has been fairly under the radar- another reason that less kids would be familiar with Franken.

**I would be interested to see what percentage Grassley  received in prior years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There aren't anymore Change polls anymore that show FRANKEN down by 3

[SCNCmod]

To my knowledge.. The Des Moines Register poll (mid Oct) is the last poll conducted by a firm that has been historically reliable in Iowa... which was the 46/43 poll (this summer the Des Moines Register poll had Grassley up 47-39)... so definitely movement towards Mike Franken (and mainly among Independents... who also make up the majority of undecided voters).

So this race is certainly in play for at least a possibility of a surprise win for Dems.