IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/abby4iowa/status/1422304477697163264?s=21

[Progressive Pessimist]

So Chris Cilliza simultaneously believes that " wokeness"will ruin Democratic chances in 2022 in general and Chuck Grassley or another GOP Senate candidate can lose at all? That's an oil and water take.

[Roll Roons]

I think it would be best if we just ignore Chris Cillizza's takes about this race. And his takes in general.

[Mail-order President]

The DNC should listen to him. They should dump boatloads of money into IA while neglecting winnable races in PA/NH/GA.

How is this guy a political/electoral analyst?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/carrollspaper/status/1422297159811092480

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The DNC should listen to him. They should dump boatloads of money into IA while neglecting winnable races in PA/NH/GA.

How is this guy a political/electoral analyst?

We should listen to you and we are targeting WI as well, lol, the Election is in 500 days

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R for now

[West_Midlander]

Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R

No if Charlie Crist is leading in FL, Fink and Ras Smith can win, underestimate Ras Smith and Fink whom are dangerous, pbower2A already said watch out for the wave, but Rs only go to his Approvals to point out that Biden is at 46% but Biden wherever he is, is far outpacing Trump in 2018 because Trump got impeached during 2018/2019 cycles that's why we won KY Gov and KS

We don't have polls from OH, IA or NC, wait until we start getting polls and don't underestimate Tim Ryan he can beat Josh Mandel whom is leading R Nomination for Senate

But obviously, DeWine is gonna easily win the Gov race, Sherrod Brown along with Manchin and Tim Ryan have never lost a GE before, Brown plans on campaigning for Ryan, Mandel did so poorly against Sherrod Brown in 2012

[Progressive Pessimist]

Safe R for now

Safe R forever.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R for now

Safe R forever.

Fink has a great gathering on Twitter watch she win this race, it's called wave insurance

What if Beasley, Fink and Ryan wins, the GOP party isn't a strong party right now, the only Elections they did well are 2010/2014 2016 Trump lost the PVI

Users especially D's overrate the TRUMP PARTY

[TDAS04]

I wonder if Finkenauer would win even two counties against Grassley.  She'd carry Johnson, but that might be it.

[Calthrina950]

I wonder if Finkenauer would win even two counties against Grassley.  She'd carry Johnson, but that might be it.

If so, then she would replicate the performance of Grassley's last two opponents (Roxanne Conlin and Patty Judge) who only won Johnson County in 2010 and 2016.

[TDAS04]

I wonder if Finkenauer would win even two counties against Grassley.  She'd carry Johnson, but that might be it.

If so, then she would replicate the performance of Grassley's last two opponents (Roxanne Conlin and Patty Judge) who only won Johnson County in 2010 and 2016.

Right.

Anyway, on second thought, Finkenauer would probably also be favored in Polk and Story Counties, and maybe Linn as well.  Due to increased polarization, Grassley’s victory could easily be held to under 20 points this time.  Or maybe not, if it’s an especially good year for GOP.

[Calthrina950]

I wonder if Finkenauer would win even two counties against Grassley.  She'd carry Johnson, but that might be it.

If so, then she would replicate the performance of Grassley's last two opponents (Roxanne Conlin and Patty Judge) who only won Johnson County in 2010 and 2016.

Right.

Anyway, on second thought, Finkenauer would probably also be favored in Polk and Story Counties, and maybe Linn as well.  Due to increased polarization, Grassley’s victory could easily be held to under 20 points this time.  Or maybe not, if it’s an especially good year for GOP.

I've made these points myself. Finkenauer could become the first of Grassley's opponents in over four decades to carry more than one county and to receive at least 40% of the vote. Nevertheless, I'd still expect her to lose by double digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why we need Prediction maps we can argue over and over again whom is gonna win and wave insurence, Fink isn't gonna lose by double digits the most Ryan, Beasley Demings and Fink are down bye are 5/8 well within range to win jest yr in a blue waves

This is what Prediction maps are supposed to do but Dave hasn't given us a timetable on prediction map
The 2020 ones weren't even scored

2021 ones are due, cause of the Cali special next month, no Predictions

[Suburbia]

Likely R....Iowa is more likely to flip than Missouri

[Progressive Pessimist]

Likely R....Iowa is more likely to flip than Missouri

True, but both are still safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R....Iowa is more likely to flip than Missouri

True, but both are still safe R.

No they're not wait for a poll, you know Ryan, Fink, Demings, and Beasley are no more than 5/8 points back, this Delta Varient is likely to be over come Nov 2022 thus a blue wave

Sherrod Brown won while Mike DeWine won, and Manchin won as well, Ryan has never lost a GE before and Fink can certainly win in a blue wave, that's why it's called a wave, upsets can happen

If Trump had the sake Approvals as Biden had, he would have swept Call ngress, instead he was being impeached for Ukraine and Russia

[MT Treasurer]

Grassley and Ernst just completed their annual 99-county retail politics tour. Grassley will announce his decision about a 2022 run by November 1.

“Well, they kind of swear at me and say: ‘How come you started all this?'” Grassley says, with a laugh. Grassley says by November 1st he’ll make a decision about whether he’ll be campaigning for an eighth term in the US. Senate next year. He’s been talking with his wife, Barbara, and his immediate family about the decision.

“I think they are thinking it through and then what the people of Iowa have to say,” Grassley says. “Now, the latter is very difficult to determine because I don’t have just a few people say: ‘You ought to retire,’ and maybe those are people who want me to retire so they can elect a Democrat — I don’t know their motives, but I get a lot of people to encourage me to run.”

https://www.radioiowa.com/2021/09/02/grassley-completes-99-county-tour-talks-about-his-future/

Yikes:

A few people in the crowd booed Grassley when he was first introduced at the event. Genia Kujath of Marion is upset that Grassley voted for the infrastructure bill. “I voted for him the last round,” she said. “Not again. Never.” Grassley says if he could talk to her, he’d thank her for voting for him in the past.

"Chuck Grassley isn’t too swampy. Chuck Grassley IS the swamp."

[walleye26]

What are we thinking the odds are that Grassley retires? 50/50?

[SnowLabrador]

I'd say 70/30 in favor of him running.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fink has all but disappeared just like Nan Whaley, OH and NC are the paths for DC Statehood but Biden is at 45%

[Telesquare]

I'm fully convinced he's running
https://twitter.com/ChuckGrassley/status/1433180816125960196

[here2view]

Grassley will run again IMO. It's funny, besides his first victory he's never gotten under 60% (60.1% in 2016.) I wonder if he finally will this time?