IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[LabourJersey]

Fr tho is it bad that I think Fink has a better shot in IA than Demings has im FL against Rubio?

No, that makes sense. Iowa's status as a retail politics state coupled with its (theoretical) elasticity means that a Democratic victory is more plausible than in Florida. Though I'm very confident the GOP will keep both of these states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 304 map don't you see the NH poll, Hassan is statistically tied in NH, Biden is tracking in Rassy 50/48 similarity to  his Pres Election result of 51/46%

It's really a 278 but AZ and GA are now part of freiwall

Generic ballot is tied

2016 is only right in this sense that unless we see Mason Dixon polls in OH, FL, IA and NC they Lean R, just like unless you see a PPP showing D's losing in the Rust belt it Leans D

They both don't poll until it gets to LV we are still one yr out before we get to LV screen

[Calthrina950]

Unbeatable titan FINK IN:

https://twitter.com/Abby4Iowa/status/1418194238039339010?s=20

How much will she lose by? Grassley will beat her just like he did his seven previous opponents, and it won't be close. However, given polarization and given the recent polls we've seen about his approval ratings, it's possible that she will give him his closest margin of victory since he defeated Culver in 1980 and become the first of his opponents since Culver to crack 40%. But it's still probably going to be a double digit loss, however.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol users are so impatient with polls, there aren't any polling from the red wall states and the Election is 500 days from now anyways.

The Rs want you to believe the Election is over

[Xing]

Since memes are apparently the absolute worst part of our current political zeitgeist, I’ll just say that Finkenauer will probably lose by 12-15%, and will almost certainly do worse than Demmings. Wow, such an interesting race with so much to say about it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since memes are apparently the absolute worst part of our current political zeitgeist, I’ll just say that Finkenauer will probably lose by 12-15%, and will almost certainly do worse than Demmings. Wow, such an interesting race with so much to say about it.

Yeah and just like Brown beat Renacci by six points and Cordray came within 3 pts in 2018 and Trump win OH by 8 pts and Portman won by 20 in 2016, let's wait for the real polls Xing

[indietraveler]

She should have just ran for congress again, I think she would have a decent shot at reclaiming her old seat in '22. Dumb decision to run for Senate.

No way she could've beat Hinson in 2022. Hinson is one of the strongest GOP candidates in the country.

What universe are you living on? Hinson is a nobody with no brand, no special characteristics or notable charisma.

Not sure how well known this is here, but Hinson was a local news reporter for years prior to entering politics. A high population of her district saw her in an unbiased manner day after day after day. She's essentially a local celebrity without any of the baggage. Unless you're part of the democratic base most average middle-of-the-road voters probably view her as inoffensive and trustworthy at worst. This seat belongs to her until she doesn't want it.

When she first announced her run I thought she was a sure thing to flip the seat, but then I started believing the Fink polls lol. Should have stuck with my gut.

[CookieDamage]

She should have just ran for congress again, I think she would have a decent shot at reclaiming her old seat in '22. Dumb decision to run for Senate.

No way she could've beat Hinson in 2022. Hinson is one of the strongest GOP candidates in the country.

What universe are you living on? Hinson is a nobody with no brand, no special characteristics or notable charisma.

Not sure how well known this is here, but Hinson was a local news reporter for years prior to entering politics. A high population of her district saw her in an unbiased manner day after day after day. She's essentially a local celebrity without any of the baggage. Unless you're part of the democratic base most average middle-of-the-road voters probably view her as inoffensive and trustworthy at worst. This seat belongs to her until she doesn't want it.

When she first announced her run I thought she was a sure thing to flip the seat, but then I started believing the Fink polls lol. Should have stuck with my gut.

I was personally aware of her past as a reporter. But that doesn't guarantee her as one of the strongest GOP candidates. Without Trump on the ticket she could be vulnerable, as well as being the victim to a Trumpy primary challenger.

[Utah Neolib]

If Ol’ Chuck doesn’t run, I don’t think Pat Grassley is guaranteed to run for this seat. I see Ashley Hinson probably doing it, or Randy Feenstra.

[Calthrina950]

If Ol’ Chuck doesn’t run, I don’t think Pat Grassley is guaranteed to run for this seat. I see Ashley Hinson probably doing it, or Randy Feenstra.

It would be embarrassing for Finkenauer if Hinson did end up being her opponent and she lost to her for the second consecutive time, potentially by more than she did in the congressional race last year.

[Utah Neolib]

If Ol’ Chuck doesn’t run, I don’t think Pat Grassley is guaranteed to run for this seat. I see Ashley Hinson probably doing it, or Randy Feenstra.

It would be embarrassing for Finkenauer if Hinson did end up being her opponent and she lost to her for the second consecutive time, potentially by more than she did in the congressional race last year.

Yeah lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What's gonna drive the Statewide Elections is how Ras Smith an Afro American candidate for Gov does against Reynolds, Reynolds have been in office like Baker since 2014, and ran as LT Gov since 2010, it's obviousluly like in MA Gov gonna be some fatigue, and I visited Iowa as an IL, it's not a solid R state and neither is OH, it's a WC state, meaning Ds can complete

Reynolds barely survived in 2018 and only won by 3 against Hubbard and Grassley in 2016 ran against Patty Judge in 2016, a nobody that was Culver's Veep

[indietraveler]

She should have just ran for congress again, I think she would have a decent shot at reclaiming her old seat in '22. Dumb decision to run for Senate.

No way she could've beat Hinson in 2022. Hinson is one of the strongest GOP candidates in the country.

What universe are you living on? Hinson is a nobody with no brand, no special characteristics or notable charisma.

Not sure how well known this is here, but Hinson was a local news reporter for years prior to entering politics. A high population of her district saw her in an unbiased manner day after day after day. She's essentially a local celebrity without any of the baggage. Unless you're part of the democratic base most average middle-of-the-road voters probably view her as inoffensive and trustworthy at worst. This seat belongs to her until she doesn't want it.

When she first announced her run I thought she was a sure thing to flip the seat, but then I started believing the Fink polls lol. Should have stuck with my gut.

I was personally aware of her past as a reporter. But that doesn't guarantee her as one of the strongest GOP candidates. Without Trump on the ticket she could be vulnerable, as well as being the victim to a Trumpy primary challenger.

Nothing is guaranteed but she has a lot of nonpartisan goodwill built up with the general public that most other candidates wouldn't have. I don't think a lack of Trump or a Trump like figure trying to oust her is a big enough event to take her down.

[Suburbia]

Lean/Likely R even if Grassley retires

[Orangeoutlaw]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrGlennHurst/status/1420768951236243462
This guy won’t beat Abby Fink.

[SnowLabrador]

Finkenauer has no chance of winning even if Grassley retires. We need to stop pretending this race is competitive.

[MT Treasurer]

Thread title has been updated with the most important developments in this race.

The worthwhile analysis referred to in the title can be accessed here:

https://youtu.be/F9PqnjwsVyQ
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/21/politics/chuck-grassley-des-moines-register-poll/index.html
https://www.montanarightnow.com/national_news/why-republicans-should-be-worried-about-iowa/video_23d9b522-7183-562b-b3d6-baa79789b8ee.html

[here2view]

Fink likely won't get blown out in a state that's now firmly in the Republican camp (especially considering it'll likely be a Republican-leaning environment too.) But she has no chance at winning, regardless of if Grassley runs. Probably looking at a 54-44~ loss.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fink has no chance and once D's get a credible Give candidate maybe Molly Kelly and Sununu makes up his mind about Sen, we should won both races

[sting in the rafters]

Forget Fink winning outright, I'm happy if she keeps it within R+7 and consequently one of the congressional districts flip. Grassley or not the R-gains with WWC independents in the state is just too high and it's not WI/MI where Ds have made inroads to offset those losses.

[Hope For A New Era]

Forget Fink winning outright, I'm happy if she keeps it within R+7 and consequently one of the congressional districts flip. Grassley or not the R-gains with WWC independents in the state is just too high and it's not WI/MI where Ds have made inroads to offset those losses.

The Iowa problem is an interesting one, because the suburbs were already pretty blue even before Trump. There's just not much space to gain.

On the other hand, urban cores weren't much bluer than the suburbs at that time either. Iowa circa 2012 really had a remarkable lack of geographic polarization.

[President Johnson]

Strongly endorsed, but I'm afraid it's a waste of time for her.

I really doubt Grassley is going to run again. He makes an old and tired impression.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Until we start getting polls from these wave insurance seats IA, OH, NC, and we already have FL Ds are 20 pts down it's a 291 Senate and WI and PA are Lean Takeovers and GA is pure Tossup

NH Hassan is down by only 1 Cook has Lean D anyways

Whaley is a disaster for D Nomination for Gov in OH and Pat McCrory is the fav for NC Senate, and D's are gonna barely scrape by in MI, PA and WI Gov this a 291map and KS, MA, and NH GOVS are pure Tossups and MD is Lean Takeaways

Biden is at 50/45 now approvals the same Exact Approvals he was on Election night 51/46% and GA Runoffs a Tossup, that isn't a 375 or 413 map it's max 304 map

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1422254112742285313?s=21

[Tekken_Guy]

The race will be a lot closer without Chuck Grassley than with him, but unless Steve King somehow ends up the GOP nominee, Finkenauer will lose.