IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My prediction is this race is going to be overhyped. Likely R for now; small chance Ds breakthrough and win, but they need a strong canidate, a good environment nationally despite 2022 probably being a wave year, and some luck.

Your Prediction is way too overblown to Rs

[Young Conservative]

Democrats can easily win iowa in 2022, remember more people voted for Biden in 2020 than Obama in 2012. They just need to make sure that everyone who voted for Biden shows up at the polls in 2022.

This is not true in iowa, where Biden got about 70k less votes than Obama 2012.

[GALeftist]

Rob Sand IS considering

https://www.thegazette.com/state-government/state-auditor-rob-sand-considering-run-for-iowa-governor-or-u-s-senate/

Why. Anyone with half a brain could tell him that his (admittedly miniscule) chance at winning the governorship is literally infinitely larger than his nonexistent shot at winning the senate race.

[Spectator]

You can at least make a decent argument that Sand could maybe win the Governorship. No one serious can argue he, or any Democrat, have a chance at the Senate seat barring the Republican being Roy Moore 2.0.

[Calthrina950]

Rob Sand IS considering

https://www.thegazette.com/state-government/state-auditor-rob-sand-considering-run-for-iowa-governor-or-u-s-senate/

He would lose. He might hold Grassley to "only" double digits (assuming Grassley does indeed run for reelection, which he seems to be leaning towards), but I doubt he would come closer than that. Against any candidate not named Grassley, Sand would come within single digits, but still lose by a sizable enough margin.

[MT Treasurer]

Rob Sand IS considering

https://www.thegazette.com/state-government/state-auditor-rob-sand-considering-run-for-iowa-governor-or-u-s-senate/

He would lose. He might hold Grassley to "only" double digits (assuming Grassley does indeed run for reelection, which he seems to be leaning towards), but I doubt he would come closer than that. Against any candidate not named Grassley, Sand would come within single digits, but still lose by a sizable enough margin.

He could, but I’m not sure I agree that Sand would come within single digits against some generic R not named Grassley. If Republicans can’t win a heavily white, considerably rural/small-town, fairly religious, and somewhat non-college-educated Trump +8/Ernst +7 state that’s zooming rightward by double digits after two years of an extremely aggressive Democratic trifecta, chances are the midterms will be somewhat of a disappointment for them. Even in a more neutral year, I would expect a double-digit blowout in this state at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sand would win if Covid by next yr is eased, of course D's would replicate the EC blue wall in this Environment, but we don't know what Covid will be like next yr

At this point D's win WI, PA, NH and GA goes to a Runoff and OH, NC or IA can make it 53 Senators in a D pVI 3.1/Environment

[Xing]

Sand running for Senate would be a fool’s errand. He’s unlikely to win re-election as it is, but why would he choose a 0% chance of winning over a chance which is probably slightly above 0%?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sand running for Senate would be a fool’s errand. He’s unlikely to win re-election as it is, but why would he choose a 0% chance of winning over a chance which is probably slightly above 0%?

IA will get close, so will OH and NC before the Election they always do, that's why Hassan is gonna win, Shaheen was trailing Scott Brown too

Today it would be a 51/49 Senate with GA going to a runoff, but that's today not tomorrow 500 days from now

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Grassley only won in 2016 due to Hillary's poor performance in IA, which won't be replicated in 2022, Mike Franken wants to run

Yep.. Grassley outrunning trump by double digits and winning by 25 points was due to Hilary's poor performance.
.

[SnowLabrador]

I've said this before and I'll say it again, I am sick of the Finkenauer memes. How could she beat Chuck Grassley when she couldn't even beat Ashley Hinson?

[Calthrina950]

Rob Sand IS considering

https://www.thegazette.com/state-government/state-auditor-rob-sand-considering-run-for-iowa-governor-or-u-s-senate/

He would lose. He might hold Grassley to "only" double digits (assuming Grassley does indeed run for reelection, which he seems to be leaning towards), but I doubt he would come closer than that. Against any candidate not named Grassley, Sand would come within single digits, but still lose by a sizable enough margin.

He could, but I’m not sure I agree that Sand would come within single digits against some generic R not named Grassley. If Republicans can’t win a heavily white, considerably rural/small-town, fairly religious, and somewhat non-college-educated Trump +8/Ernst +7 state that’s zooming rightward by double digits after two years of an extremely aggressive Democratic trifecta, chances are the midterms will be somewhat of a disappointment for them. Even in a more neutral year, I would expect a double-digit blowout in this state at this point.

A double-digit win wouldn't surprise me either, but I think Sand, as a incumbent statewide official, would enjoy somewhat of a boost compared to Greenfield, who was not an officeholder when she ran against Ernst. And as I've said above, I think he would lose regardless, and that it wouldn't be particularly close. It probably would be by a margin similar to those that Greenfield and Biden lost by, assuming the Republican nominee is not Grassley.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Covid is better next yr and the Economy is booming we can win this seat.

Biden just passed stimulus checks for everyone and even Iowans appreciate it

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/ChuckGrassley/status/1388896548227006465?s=19

Bold policy stances like this could make or break his campaign.

[MT Treasurer]

You can tell Grassley is panicking after that TX-06 result because the implications of low-prop voters not turning out in that district are pretty significant for his race, so he’s desperately trying to activate his base with tweets like that.

Side note -- I like how OC's post above that tweet is perfectly coherent while Grassley's... isn’t.

[WD]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/10/chuck-grassley-2022-485648

If Iowa's incumbent senator runs for reelection in 2022, the seat is safe for Republicans. If he retires, they'll have a battle on their hands.

This stuff is beyond parody.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA is wave insurance, D's are close enough to win in OH and NC, there could really be a chance that OH can vote for Tim Ryan since Josh Mandel is so polarizing especially to Afro Americans, and Dewine wins, and then of course there is NC and Koop is quite popular



D's are up 5 on Generic ballot, hat's more than the margin of error for all those Rs keep comparing 2018, we won OH, IA, FL and NC in 2008(12 and guess what the PVI was 0.5 over McCain and Romney

Afro American Kelly in MO seems promising to me,  too

In a boom Economy, I can see D's winning the PVI 0.6, in 500 days because 1400 cheques that Rs on this forum got is popular

[MT Treasurer]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/10/chuck-grassley-2022-485648

If Iowa's incumbent senator runs for reelection in 2022, the seat is safe for Republicans. If he retires, they'll have a battle on their hands.

This stuff is beyond parody.

We’re supposed to pretend that "literally no one thinks/says that" and that we’re only "mocking" non-existent takes, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Pat Grassley unlikely to run?

There are rumors that Grassley wants to elevate his grandson, statehouse Speaker Pat Grassley, into the Senate. But that isn’t happening, according to the senator and his allies.

“I know for a fact that is not true,” said state Rep. Lee Hein, a Republican close to Pat Grassley. He said Pat Grassley is not interested in being a senator and encouraged Chuck to run again.

Also... if Tester says it’s competitive, it will be competitive (because clearly everything Tester does is 10D chess and he’s never wrong about anything):

“God, I hate to give you an on-the-record comment on this,” sighed Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who led Democrats’ campaign arm in 2016. “He’s the difference between whether this is a competitive race, or whether Chuck Grassley just wins again.”

[Calthrina950]

Pat Grassley unlikely to run?

There are rumors that Grassley wants to elevate his grandson, statehouse Speaker Pat Grassley, into the Senate. But that isn’t happening, according to the senator and his allies.

“I know for a fact that is not true,” said state Rep. Lee Hein, a Republican close to Pat Grassley. He said Pat Grassley is not interested in being a senator and encouraged Chuck to run again.

Also... if Tester says it’s competitive, it will be competitive (because clearly everything Tester does is 10D chess and he’s never wrong about anything):

“God, I hate to give you an on-the-record comment on this,” sighed Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who led Democrats’ campaign arm in 2016. “He’s the difference between whether this is a competitive race, or whether Chuck Grassley just wins again.”

I wouldn't be surprised if the elder Grassley decides to follow the path of his contemporary, Don Young in the House (they and Dianne Feinstein were all born in the same year, 1933) and serve until he literally is carried out of the U.S. Capitol on a gurney. Grassley said a few months ago that he won't announce his decision about running for reelection until this fall at the earliest.

[gerritcole]

Ashley Hinson would be a good gop recruit

[SnowLabrador]

Ashley Hinson would be a good gop recruit

She'd probably win by a larger margin than most, but this is Safe R regardless of who the Republican and Democratic candidates are.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ashley Hinson would be a good gop recruit

She'd probably win by a larger margin than most, but this is Safe R regardless of who the Republican and Democratic candidates are.

You know D's won the PVI by 5.0 in 2008/2012 against McCain/Romney, and won OH, IA, NC and FL, these naysayers about IA, OH, NC arre ridiculous.  Guess what we lead on Generic ballot 47/42

The can be split votimg between Gov and Senator 2018 Brown/DeWine, Sinema/Ducey, 2020 Tillis/Koop

Sand/Franken/Reynolds, Ryan/DeWine, and Rubio/CRIST

IA was almost won by Greenfield in 2020,OH, IA, NC, FL are R based battlegrounds just like WI, PA, MI are D based battlegrounds.

If Rs can call contest NH and GA we can win IA, OH or NC

The only person is safe is Rubio, not DeSsntis whom can easily lose to Crist, no prominent D wants to take him on and the Economy isn't gonna be like this slow in 500 days and R voters received 2K cheques just like Ds

[Lambsbread]

Former Crawford County supervisor Dave Muhlbauer is in:

[Nutmeg]

Very strong new thread title, btw.