Will immagration effect the voting patterns of these states?
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  Will immagration effect the voting patterns of these states?
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Author Topic: Will immagration effect the voting patterns of these states?  (Read 1440 times)
Kevin
Junior Chimp
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« on: June 16, 2006, 07:25:01 PM »

CA
NJ
CO
AZ
NM
NV
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ag
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2006, 09:19:34 PM »

I must say, I sometimes think the modern voting-rights laws are way too progressive.  If being able to write in English (or, for that matter, any language) were made a pre-condition for voting in the US, the voting rights would be appropriately restricted to some 10 million people nationwide. Just to make it clear: "immagration" is not "going to "effect" anything.

PS. I apologize to the author of the original post - I do not intend this against him in particular, but these words are consistently butchered here. I normally ignore spelling bummers - I myself have never won a spelling bee - but I have been particularly impressed recently by the fact that the inability of natural-born US citizens to write the word "immigration" in what passes for their native tongue, does not prevent them from fulminating about the foreigners' alleged "refusal to learn English".  Perhaps, ability to write in English should be made, at least, a pre-condition for discussing immigration on this forum?
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Kevin
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2006, 09:52:58 PM »

  That's my bad spelling was never my strong suit. Well anyways I think as Hispanics movie into the middle class over the next 20-30 years states such as CA ,and NJ which have large Hispanic populations will become less blue ,and liberal ,and more moderate ,and purple i.e. swing states.
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ag
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« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2006, 11:04:22 PM »

  That's my bad spelling was never my strong suit. Well anyways I think as Hispanics movie into the middle class over the next 20-30 years states such as CA ,and NJ which have large Hispanic populations will become less blue ,and liberal ,and more moderate ,and purple i.e. swing states.

How about correcting the "effect" part as well? (In this case it is not just a spelling problem, but it also interferes with understanding, since "effect" means something different from what you are trying to say, which, I presume, is "affect", as in "have an effect on"). Sorry for being pedantic.

As for the subject of your post - forecasts for what will happen 30 years from now are useless, since they presume no change of parties themselves.  Still, a few more comments.

Of course, Hispanics assimilate in the general American society - they do it at about the same rate as the Jews, the Germans, the Italians or the Irish of the years past. So, if you are talking about the offspring of the current US residents, then there is no reason to believe they'd vote any different from those groups. Now, Hispanics are themselves heterogenous (also, racially so), so  they assimilate into different US groups, but the "white Hispanics", at least, are not likely to be particularly different from the other Catholic (and, to a lesser extent, Evangelical Protestant) populations, whatever that suggests to you about their voting and residential choice behavior. In fact, as was also the case with other migrant groups, due in part to intermarriage, the "Hispanic" identity is going to be lost and/or diluted for a lot of them (studies show that a lot of successful Americans of Hispanic origin don't self-identify themselves as hispanic even now even within one or two generations of being born in the US).

The main - and, in fact, the only important - difference is that, unless Latin America somehow becomes much wealthier than it is now (or else, the US sharply deteriorates), the migrant inflow from the region is going to continue, no matter what this or that Congress decides. Thus, there will always be a "new immigrant" hispanic element, that would maintain the same identity and social status.  On the other hand, only 40 or 50 years ago it would be inconceivable that, say, Italy or Ireland would themselves get so rich that they'd stop continuously exporting big chunks of their population, so, perhaps, Latin America would similarly improve (though it doesn't seem likely today).
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« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2006, 11:09:45 PM »

I just noticed that most of the states you ask about actually have some substantial "native" (that is, pre-1848) Hispanic populations. Of course, those groups, as distinct from newer migrants, are both more assimilated (in the sense that they are, for all practical purposes, American) and least likely to loose their group identity, in the same way as, say, the "Anglo" Southerners are both "American" and "Southern". The way in which Sen. Salazar (whose ancestors became US citizens when their homes were annexed) is Hispanic is very different from the way in which a new migrant is.
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