Will Beshear win Elliot county in 2023?

[I need an explanation]

Elliot seems to be less and less reliable for dems.

[Calthrina950]

That we're even asking this should be indicative of the grave trouble he's going to find himself in. I'm predicting right now that Beshear will lose reelection, and that-like Doug Jones in Alabama, who just got blown out-he won only because of how horrendous his opponent was.

[Heebie Jeebie]

That we're even asking this should be indicative of the grave trouble he's going to find himself in. I'm predicting right now that Beshear will lose reelection, and that-like Doug Jones in Alabama, who just got blown out-he won only because of how horrendous his opponent was.

I don't know.  Beshear is still polling pretty well, and gubernatorial races often play differently than Senate races (see:  Louisiana).  I wouldn't say he's favored to win re-election, but it could be a toss-up.

I hope he wins, though.  Victory would make him a good pick for Harris's running mate.

[Calthrina950]

That we're even asking this should be indicative of the grave trouble he's going to find himself in. I'm predicting right now that Beshear will lose reelection, and that-like Doug Jones in Alabama, who just got blown out-he won only because of how horrendous his opponent was.

I don't know.  Beshear is still polling pretty well, and gubernatorial races often play differently than Senate races (see:  Louisiana).  I wouldn't say he's favored to win re-election, but it could be a toss-up.

I hope he wins, though.  Victory would make him a good pick for Harris's running mate.

I certainly hope that he wins as well, but given that it will be a Biden "midterm" (technically), I'm not too confident. And Edwards was reelected under Trump last year, and won only by a narrow margin. Edwards and Beshear have nowhere near the electoral strength of Baker, Hogan, and Scott, who are in states that are just as heavily Democratic as Kentucky and Louisiana are Republican.

[KaiserDave]

Let's just say he's lucky KY has off year elections

[Frenchrepublican]

That we're even asking this should be indicative of the grave trouble he's going to find himself in. I'm predicting right now that Beshear will lose reelection, and that-like Doug Jones in Alabama, who just got blown out-he won only because of how horrendous his opponent was.

I doubt that Beshear would lose by 20 points, it's very plausible that he loses but not by that much.

[jamestroll]

I do not tie up guys nor do I handcuff them.

[I need an explanation]

He might, but I think Elliot will go R for most if not all other statewide offices.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably not. He's going to lose heavily in 2023 no matter how popular he may be, simply because Democratic voters have a higher view of the GOP than GOP voters do of Democrats.

[Alcibiades]

Before last Tuesday, I would have easily said yes, but seeing Elliott vote for Mitch for the first time ever has given me some serious doubts. Still, if Beshear’s current approvals hold, I think he’ll be able to narrowly win the county, seeing as Trump will not be on the ballot. Republicans seem to benefit from high turnout there, so the off-year election should help Beshear. The New Deal Dems are evidently more likely to vote than what I would term the non-Republican Trumpists.

[Calthrina950]

That we're even asking this should be indicative of the grave trouble he's going to find himself in. I'm predicting right now that Beshear will lose reelection, and that-like Doug Jones in Alabama, who just got blown out-he won only because of how horrendous his opponent was.

I doubt that Beshear would lose by 20 points, it's very plausible that he loses but not by that much.

I don't think Beshear is going to lose by 20% either, but a low double-digit loss, similar to that suffered by Heidi Heitkamp in 2018, is certainly plausible.

[PSOL]

No, Beshear has a connection with these voters.

[Hope For A New Era]

Before November 3 I would have said it was a virtual certainty. Now, I'm not so sure. We truly have no idea what a post-trends "no Trump on ballot, no D wave" electorate looks like.

I still think he's favored to win reelection, though.

[GALeftist]

Isn't Beshear pretty popular, even among Republicans? I could see him pulling off a JBE style win

[Alben Barkley]

Isn't Beshear pretty popular, even among Republicans? I could see him pulling off a JBE style win

Yes. People writing him off are being ridiculous. Trump won KY by more in 2016, personally came here to endorse Bevin and plead with his voters... and still Beshear won. And Bevin is not comparable to Moore, nor are Alabama senate races (especially in presidential years) comparable to Kentucky gubernatorial races (especially in off-years).

It’s certainly possible Beshear loses, but as of now I’d say he’s at least slightly favored simply because he’s a very popular incumbent. Plus I have no idea who the GOP will run against him. I’ve heard rumors of Savannah Maddox, who is basically a younger, female Bevin — she is in the same group of Northern Kentucky lunatics “libertarians” with him and Massie. It’s not that popular a brand of politics statewide. Especially in Eastern Kentucky coal country, in fact.

And as for Elliot County specifically, again we saw that heavy support for Trump does not necessarily translate to support for another Republican gubernatorial candidate three years later. Even one as Trumpy as Bevin who tied himself to Trump as closely as possible and got returned the favor.

[Frenchrepublican]

Isn't Beshear pretty popular, even among Republicans? I could see him pulling off a JBE style win

Quinnipiac gave him a 63% approval rate but the same poll had Biden losing KY by '' only '' 9 points.

Also Edwards won 51% of the vote despite having a 60% approval rate, don't assume that every person who approve the job Beshear is doing will necessarily vote for him.

[Frenchrepublican]

Before November 3 I would have said it was a virtual certainty. Now, I'm not so sure. We truly have no idea what a post-trends "no Trump on ballot, no D wave" electorate looks like.

I still think he's favored to win reelection, though.

You also thought that Parson would lose to Galloway.

[Hope For A New Era]

Before November 3 I would have said it was a virtual certainty. Now, I'm not so sure. We truly have no idea what a post-trends "no Trump on ballot, no D wave" electorate looks like.

I still think he's favored to win reelection, though.

You also thought that Parson would lose to Galloway.

I never said that. I said he could lose, because I didn't anticipate the Trumpist turnout.

[Frenchrepublican]

Before November 3 I would have said it was a virtual certainty. Now, I'm not so sure. We truly have no idea what a post-trends "no Trump on ballot, no D wave" electorate looks like.

I still think he's favored to win reelection, though.

You also thought that Parson would lose to Galloway.

I never said that. I said he could lose, because I didn't anticipate the Trumpist turnout.

You litteraly spent the past few months suggesting that the race was tossup and that Biden would lose the state by a single digit margin.

You also claimed that MO-2 was going to flip (and here it's harder to blame Trump turnout surge for your prediction miss considering the demographics of the district)

The point is that your predictions about democrats odds are usually very optimistic and claiming that Beshear is favoured to win reelection, at the moment is more wishful thinking than anything else.

[bagelman]

You all forget that against Bevin, one of the most loathed incumbent govs nationwide who basically tried to abolish schools, Beshear's win was by 5000 votes statewide. He could win both state and Elliot County. But it's just as likely he'll go down in flames as the "resistance" against "the stolen election" rages nationwide.

[Alben Barkley]

Turns out the answer was "Yes!"

[Agafin]

Turns out the answer was "Yes!"

And interestingly, it voted to the left of the state as a whole. I thought every yellow dog was dead at this point?

[Mr. Smith]

Turns out the answer was "Yes!"

And interestingly, it voted to the left of the state as a whole. I thought every yellow dog was dead at this point?

But it did swing/trend considerably right while most of the other counties did the other thing.

[Schiff for Senate]

Turns out the answer was "Yes!"

And interestingly, it voted to the left of the state as a whole. I thought every yellow dog was dead at this point?

But it did swing/trend considerably right while most of the other counties did the other thing.

Not only that, but the gubernatorial race was also the exception rather than the rule: in every other statewide race, Elliott voted to the right of the state as a whole.