Cities vs. rest of county

[mileslunn]

While not all precincts are up, wondering if anybody is able to provide the following.  Some will have to wait until counting finished.

Seattle vs. rest of King County
Portland vs. rest of Multnomah County
Sacramento vs. rest of Sacramento County
Los Angeles vs. rest of Los Angeles County
San Diego vs. rest of San Diego County
Honolulu vs. rest of Honolulu county
Salt Lake City vs. rest of Salt Lake County
Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark county
Phoenix vs. rest of Maricopa county
Albuquerque vs. rest of Bernalilo county
Omaha vs. rest of Douglas County
Oklahoma City vs. rest of Oklahoma County
Tulsa vs. rest of Tulsa county
Dallas vs. rest of Dallas County
El Paso vs. rest of El Paso County
Houston vs. rest of Harris County
Austin vs. rest of Travis County
San Antonio vs. rest of Bexar County
Indianapolis vs. rest of Marion County
Detroit vs. rest of Wayne County
Toledo vs. rest of Lucas County
Dayton vs. rest of Montgomery County
Columbus vs. rest of Franklin County
Memphis vs. rest of Shelby
Pittsburgh vs. rest of Allegheny County
Charlotte vs. rest of Mecklenburg County
Raleigh vs. rest of Wake County
Atlanta vs. rest of Fulton County
Jacksonville vs. rest of Duval County
Tampa vs. rest of Hillsborough County
Orlando vs. rest of Orange County
Miami vs. rest of Miami-Dade County

Remainder of large cities I already got or in case of New York way too many outstanding ballots to be accurate.

Any of them here would help.

[mileslunn]

Also Minneapolis vs. rest of Hennepin County

[mileslunn]

There's a thread here that says Minneapolis voted 86% D (and to the left of San Francisco).

What was rest of Hennepin County?  I am guessing except some exurbs on extreme west end Biden won most of them.

[mileslunn]

There's a thread here that says Minneapolis voted 86% D (and to the left of San Francisco).

What was rest of Hennepin County?  I am guessing except some exurbs on extreme west end Biden won most of them.

Have you tried the Atlas election results page? It has precinct level results for all of MN.

Anyways quick math with Atlas results show that Hennepin county was roughly 63% Biden to 35% Trump with Minneapolis removed

Do they have 2020 data yet or just past elections?

[mileslunn]

Anybody have links where I can find these.  Some counties give precinct breakdowns but just by precinct # and don't say which municipality they are in while some break them down.  I found Cuyahoga County, Hamilton County, Milwaukee County, and Allegheny County so got those.  Franklin County, Ohio, Mecklenburg County, Miami-Dade County, and Multonomah County give precinct maps but do not show municipal boundaries but if someone provides those I could calculate them. 

[mileslunn]

Multnomah County, Oregon 2020:


Portland:

Trump:   51,633     (13.4%)        (+70.4% Biden)     +5.4% Biden Swing
Biden:  322,031     (83.8%)
Misc:     10,741      ( 2.8%)
TOTAL:  384,405



Non-Portland:

Trump: 31,090     (39.8%)        (+17.0% Biden)       +5.6% Biden Swing
Biden:  44,415     (56.8%)
Misc:     2,622      ( 3.4%)
TOTAL:  78,127

Multnomah County, Oregon 2016:

Portland:

Trump:   42,649    (12.8%)        (+65.0% HRC)
HRC:  259,753      (77.8%)
Misc:     31,131       (9.3%)
TOTAL:  333,533

Non-Portland:

Trump: 25,305     (38.6%)        (+11.4.% HRC)
HRC:  32,808     (50.0%)
Misc:      7,457     (11.4%)
TOTAL:  65,570 

Interesting Multonomah county suburbs went more Republican than Washington County, any reason why?  Even with Clackamas County, pretty sure Trump got under 40% if you take only the suburban parts as he likely won big in the rural parts thus why overall numbers at 43%.

[mileslunn]

I don't have time to crunch the numbers right now, but if anyone else wants to do the math for Salt Lake city vs. county, here you go: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/UT/Salt_Lake/107137/Web02.264677/#/cid/10?undefined

Thanks, I can go from there.  I don't have exact numbers but a few I ran earlier were

Milwaukee County

Biden 79%
Trump 19%

Rest of county

Biden 58%
Trump 40%

Jackson County, Missouri

Kansas City

Biden 78.5% 106,470
Trump 19.3% 26,166

rest of Jackson County

Trump 50.9%
Biden 46.8%

Cuyahoga County

Cleveland

Biden 81%
Trump 18%

Rest of Cuyahoga County

Biden 62%
Trump 36%

Hamilton County, Ohio

Cincinnati

Biden 78%
Trump 21%

Rest of Hamilton County

Trump 51%
Biden 47%

Allegheny County

Pittsburgh

Biden 78%
Trump 21%

Rest of Allegheny County

Biden 54%
Trump 44%

Fulton County, Georgia

Atlanta

Biden 79%
Trump 19%

Rest of Fulton County

Biden 66%
Trump 33%

These are approximate as I ran earlier but could run for more details earlier if you want exact decimal.

[mileslunn]

Biden won both Salt Lake City, but also even narrowly won rest of Salt Lake County but north/south split with northern suburbs going for Biden, southern for Trump.  My understanding is in 2012, Romney carried just about every suburb.  But then again he is a Mormon while Trump has never been well liked by Mormon community

Salt Lake City

Biden 77% - 72,761
Trump 19.8% 18,705

Rest of Salt Lake County

Biden 48.1% 216,528 votes
Trump 46.9% 210,850 votes

[mileslunn]

Interesting to see how all the cities listed are almost exactly 80/20 Biden

Yeah it is interesting although to be fair I think you can only max out so far so that is probably why.  It seems pretty much every demographic in urban cores hates Trump while his slight gains amongst minorities but loss amongst urban whites is why you are seeing convergence.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Mecklenburg County so if anyone can give me municipal boundaries https://er.ncsbe.gov/contest_details.html?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=60&contest_id=1373 I can calculate this.  It just gives numbers no municipal boundaries.  Same for Raleigh as well.

[mileslunn]

Got Franklin County, Ohio

Columbus

Biden 70.3% (260,008 votes)
Trump 27.2% (100,553 votes)

Rest of Franklin County

Biden 54.9% (131,576 votes)
Trump 42.8% (102,601 votes)

So looks like in Ohio, Cuyahoga County suburbs went pretty strongly for Biden although Trump did win a number in the southern part which is very white working class, lots with Italian and Eastern European descent, but got clobbered in the heavily African-American ones, but also lost all the lakeside ones which are more upper middle class, college educated whites.  For Franklin County, also went for Biden but Trump got over 40% in the Franklin County suburbs.  Only Hamilton county suburbs did Trump win and even there it was a lot closer than normal.

So it seems in Ohio, Biden is gaining in suburbs, but rural areas and smaller urban centers are killing the Democrats thus why losing state.

[mileslunn]

Here is Pima County but fails to give municipal boundaries so anyone who has precinct #'s I can calculate this https://webcms.pima.gov/government/elections_department/

[mileslunn]

At this point, yes just rough estimates, but still pretty close to ballpark.  Only state where I would avoid giving municipal numbers for is New York is they have several ballots left to count and they are almost all mail in which break heavily Democrat so there it would show places being more Republican than they are.

[mileslunn]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

[mileslunn]

Found Wayne County

Detroit:

Biden 94%
Trump 5.1%

Rest of Wayne County

Biden 56.4%
Trump 41.5%

[mileslunn]

This one has Tampa vs. Hillsborough county, but only by # no municipal boundaries so if anyone knows the range for Tampa and rest I can calculate from here  https://enr.electionsfl.org/HIL/2772/Reports/ . 

[mileslunn]

San Diego County I was able to get.  For some vote by mail although very small number, didn't assign but small enough won't change overall numbers.  San Diego actually while a Biden landslide, has pretty decent numbers for Trump for a city its size.  Mind you not a large African-American population like most cities its size and doesn't seem to have as many white liberals as you see in other coastal cities (large military presence there, although Trump not too popular amongst them)

San Diego

Biden: 68.5%
Trump 29.1%

Rest of San Diego County

Biden: 54.2%
Trump 43.5%

[mileslunn]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:

Affluent suburban Republicanism has collapsed (and Trump is a terrible fit for Mercer Island, Bellevue etc) and Seattle is one of the most left-wing cities in America.

His strongest support was on south end of King County not east or north which are more affluent although only major municipality in King County to vote for Trump was Enumclaw.  Eastern part of Pierce County which is semi-rural he won.

Generally speaking wealthy suburbs were ones that saw the hardest swing away from Trump so looks like his tax cuts didn't buy much voter love from well to do.  But a lot are college educated and thus anti-science, conspiracy theories tends to not go too well with this group.  It would be interesting if a Reagan style Republican could still win in these areas or have they changed enough that won't work.

[mileslunn]

Harris County I have the following:  Trump did much better here than most city proper.

Houston

Biden: 63.9%
Trump 34.8%

Rest of Harris County

Trump: 49.9%
Biden 48.8%

[mileslunn]

Here is San Antonio and Bexar County.

San Antonio

Biden 61.8%
Trump 36.5%

Bexar County

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47.9%

[mileslunn]

Yeah, the GOP was pretty strong in Seattle's affluent suburbs into the 1990s.

The last Republican senator was Slade Gorton, who was defeated in 2000.  He was a "never Trumper" that voted for McMullen and supported impeachment.

Also had Dave Reichert there, but believe he quit before 2018 midterms and I believe was no fan of Trump.  I think Reagan style conservatism may still have some support in suburbs, but Trump style is quite toxic.  Although going through, it seems in working class suburbs, GOP support largely holding up, its more the upper middle class where the bottom is falling out under.

[mileslunn]

Here is San Antonio and Bexar County.

San Antonio

Biden 61.8%
Trump 36.5%

Bexar County

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47.9%

So Trump's % in the city remained virtually unchanged from 2016, just like the County itself.

Not a total surprise as city is over 60% Hispanic and considering Trump did better amongst Hispanics in 2020 than 2016, my guess is Biden gained amongst non-Hispanic whites, but that was cancelled out by losses amongst Hispanics.

[mileslunn]

To update still awaiting for following and will update as I find them.

Sacramento vs. rest of Sacramento County
Los Angeles vs. rest of Los Angeles County
Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County
Phoenix vs. rest of Maricopa County
Albuquerque vs. rest of Bernalillo County
Omaha vs. rest of Douglas County
El Paso vs. rest of El Paso County
Austin vs. rest of Travis County
Dallas vs. rest of Dallas County
Indianapolis vs. rest of Marion County (I got breakdown of townships but not by municipality)
Memphis vs. rest of Shelby county
Rochester vs. rest of Monroe County
Charlotte vs. rest of Mecklenburg County
Raleigh vs. rest of Wake County
Jacksonville vs. rest of Duval county
Orlando vs. rest of Orange county
Tampa vs. rest of Hillsborough county
Miami vs. rest of Miami-Dade County

[mileslunn]

I want to see Houston vs. rest of Harris County.

Houston

Biden: 63.9%
Trump 34.8%

Rest of Harris County

Trump: 49.9%
Biden 48.8%

[mileslunn]

Trump dominated the northern part of Harris County which is right next door to Montgomery County where Trump still got over 70%.  I believe a lot of people who work in oil companies live there and obviously would not be fans of Democrats.  Fort Bend County went Democrat and many of the suburbs there are actually closer to downtown than the northern parts of Harris County which Trump dominated.

I could be wrong, but I believe Dallas has a big tech sector and pharmaceuticals whereas Houston is more energy sector thus could explain why Democrats doing better in Dallas than Houston.  Tech sector tends to be fairly Democratic, while energy sector still largely GOP.