Cities vs. rest of county

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to take a crack at Gulfport, MS, and Biloxi, MS vs. Harrison County, or Oxford, MS vs. Lafayette County, or Ocean Springs, MS and Pascagoula, MS vs. Jackson County? I tried to calculate Gulfport, Biloxi, and Ocean Springs, but messed up bad and have no idea how to get correct results.

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to take a crack at Gulfport, MS, and Biloxi, MS vs. Harrison County, or Oxford, MS vs. Lafayette County, or Ocean Springs, MS and Pascagoula, MS vs. Jackson County? I tried to calculate Gulfport, Biloxi, and Ocean Springs, but messed up bad and have no idea how to get correct results.

This is what I got but numbers look at bit small as some precincts by voting location so I only included those specifying name.

Biloxi

Trump: 5,077 (51.5%)
Biden: 4,577 (46.4%)
Total: 9,861

Gulfport

Biden: 6,253 (76.5%)
Trump: 1,784 (21.8%)
Total: 8,170

Rest of Harrison County:

Trump: 39,851 (69%)
Biden: 16,898 (29.3%)
Total: 57,737

Oxford

Trump: 7,506 (49.3%)
Biden: 7,440 (48.9%)
Total: 15,226

Rest of Lafayette County

Trump: 5,443 (66.4%)
Biden: 2,630 (32.1%)
Total: 8,197

For Jackson County will take a while as have to google where each voting place is located in.

I don't think these are right for Gulfport or Biloxi given that Trump narrowly carried Gulfport in 2016 and there's not that much of the county population that isn't in one of those two.

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to take a crack at Gulfport, MS, and Biloxi, MS vs. Harrison County, or Oxford, MS vs. Lafayette County, or Ocean Springs, MS and Pascagoula, MS vs. Jackson County? I tried to calculate Gulfport, Biloxi, and Ocean Springs, but messed up bad and have no idea how to get correct results.

This is what I got but numbers look at bit small as some precincts by voting location so I only included those specifying name.

Biloxi

Trump: 5,077 (51.5%)
Biden: 4,577 (46.4%)
Total: 9,861

Gulfport

Biden: 6,253 (76.5%)
Trump: 1,784 (21.8%)
Total: 8,170

Rest of Harrison County:

Trump: 39,851 (69%)
Biden: 16,898 (29.3%)
Total: 57,737

Oxford

Trump: 7,506 (49.3%)
Biden: 7,440 (48.9%)
Total: 15,226

Rest of Lafayette County

Trump: 5,443 (66.4%)
Biden: 2,630 (32.1%)
Total: 8,197

For Jackson County will take a while as have to google where each voting place is located in.

I don't think these are right for Gulfport or Biloxi given that Trump narrowly carried Gulfport in 2016 and there's not that much of the county population that isn't in one of those two.

For sure, Gulfport makes no sense, although with it having a larger African-American population than Biloxi, possible Biden won it.  I just posted ones directly linked to one of the cities not those listing other things like church, school etc.  I can work on that but would take a bit longer.

I would appreciate you giving it a shot. Same for Oxford (which seems a bit too red).

[Sailor Haumea]

Thank you! It looks like my numbers were actually only a little bit too red for Biloxi, but I was WAY off for Gulfport (I included the two mostly non-Gulfport precincts, so I wound up with Trump+9). Wanna try Ocean Springs and Oxford too?

[Sailor Haumea]

I'd also appreciate if someone took a crack at Martinsburg, WV. Seems entirely possible that Biden won it but I'd need numbers to be sure.

[Sailor Haumea]

I'd also appreciate if someone took a crack at Martinsburg, WV. Seems entirely possible that Biden won it but I'd need numbers to be sure.

I just calculated these results - Biden appears to have won the city of Martinsburg, West Virginia by NINETEEN VOTES:

Biden: 3,335 (49.01%)
Trump: 3,316 (48.73%)
Others: 154 (2.26%) (127 for Jorgensen, 27 for Hawkins)

[Sailor Haumea]

I will try to get this fixed in next day and see what I can do.  Oxford seems quite believable as its Deep South where voting is very racially polarized.  In Mississippi unlike other states, GOP dominates whites pretty much everywhere, even in areas that would go Democrat in other states.

Looking at the precinct map these numbers actually appear to be correct for Oxford. Not 100% sure but looks like we arrived at the same vote numbers.

[Sailor Haumea]

Using following link, anyone able to calculate Huntsville vs. rest of Madison County; Montgomery rest of Montgomery County and Mobile vs. rest of Mobile Count

https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-data

Mobile, Alabama has a few challenges which make it a bit trickier in calculating City results compared to some other places:

1.) There are some precincts which are split precints.
2.) Absentee & Provisional ballots are counted separately and not assigned to a precinct.

That being said, I went through and coded precincts in Mobile County and assigned them to the City of Mobile or not to the City of Mobile based upon weather the precinct appeared to be clearly predominately not a majority City precinct or if it appeared to be clearly majority City precinct.

That left me with (2) precincts which looked closer to a roughly 50%-50% City / Non-City:

Precinct # 31: Robert L. Hope Community Center (Split with the Unincorporated Community of Prichard directly North of NE Mobile).

Precinct #77: Cypress Shores Baptist Church (Includes the Cypress Shores neighborhood of Mobile with part of the Uninc area of Tillmans Corner).

For sake of simplicity, I included both within the numbers for Mobile, Alabama in 2020 (One is an overwhelmingly Democratic precinct and the other is an overwhelmingly Republican Precinct).

Here are the precincts which I coded as part of Mobile, Alabama's numbers:





2020 GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          37,204      (56.4%)        +14.5% Biden     (+6.0% Trump Swing)
Trump:         27,626      (41.9%)
Misc:             1,083       ( 1.6%)
Total:           65,913                          -10.7% TV 2016    to 2020

2016: GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:          43,493       (58.9%)        +20.5% HRC    
Trump:       28,322      (38.4%)
Misc:           2,006        ( 2.7%)
Total:         73,821

NOW IT STARTS TO GET A BIT TRICKY!!!

Let's start with looking at the 2016 and 2020: GE PRES from all of the other precincts:

2020 GE PRES Non-Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          24,008      (26.0%)        +46.7% Trump      (+4.4 % Trump Swing).
Trump:         67,113      (72.7%)
Misc:             1,135      ( 1.6%)
Total:           92,256                          +3.0% Increase in TV 2016 > 2020

2016 GE PRES Non-Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:          24,936      (27.8%)        +42.3%  Trump  
Trump:       62,765      (70.1%)
Misc:           1,865        (2.1%)
Total:         89,566

Absentee / Provisional Ballots:

2020 GE PRES County Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          18,262     (73.1%)        +47.1% Biden       (+53.2% DEM Swing)
Trump:          6,504      (26.0%)
Misc:               229      ( 0.9%)
Total:           24,995                         +344.4% TV Increase 2016    to 2020

2016: GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:            2,572      (45.7%)        +6.1%Trump     (+5.3% Trump Swing).
Trump:         2,915      (51.8%)
Misc:              138        ( 2.7%)
Total:           5,625

How can we possibly separate the Mobile & Non-Mobile numbers considering the surge of Absentee votes between '16 and '20?

2016:  TV PRES Votes: 169,012
2020:  TV PRES Votes: 183,164       +14,152 Votes (+7.8% 2016 > 2020 TV I increase..

2016: Absentee / Provisionals--- 3.3% of County Vote
2020: Absentee / Provisionals--- 13.6% of County Vote

I could try to run a bit of a compare / contrast by precinct in terms of '16 > '20 TV numbers and then look at the % increase, but unfortunately won't account for representative turnout by place, let alone swings within the City of Mobile.

County wide you got some heavily Black precincts in UNINC area like Prichard and Chickasaw, just North of City Limits, but heavily White Rural 90%+ Trump precincts elsewhere.

Makes it much harder to see where the swings were at in Mobile County Alabama..

So I thought it might be interesting to take a slightly closer view at Mobile County vs City, especially considering the significant increase in Absentee Voters between 2016 and 2020 GE PRES.

Although it seems intuitive to associate the bulk of these votes with the City of Mobile, considering the dramatic decrease in "Regular Precinct Votes" between 2016 and 2020, as well as the fact that the bulk of the heavily Democratic precincts within the County are located within the City itself AND the composition of the Absentee / Provisional Ballots skewed overwhelmingly Democratic, I thought it might be worthwhile to examine this in further detail.

So for example if we look at the 2016 GE PRES numbers (Using the precinct coding above), here are the respective breakdowns of the County Vote Share by Place:

Mobile City:              43.7%
Non-Mobile City:       54.3%
Absentee:                  3.3 %

2020 GE PRES numbers for contrast, here are the respective breakdowns of the County Vote Share by Place:

Mobile City:              36.0%
Non-Mobile City:       50.4%
Absentee:                 13.6 %

So we could be reductionist and simply assign GE PRES 2020 absentee / Provisional voters 24,995 by the 2016 City / Non-City Vote Share and end up with something like the following:

Mobile:           + 6,221
Non-Mobile:    + 7,202
Absentee:          6,044 

This would add the following to the City / Non-City Tallies using the 73.1% Biden- 26.0 Trump breakdown:

Mobile:         Biden + 4,547,    Trump +  1,617
Non-Mobile:  Biden + 5,264     Trump +  1,872

This would end up looking like something as the following:

Mobile: 

Biden:   41,751     (57.9%)
Trump:  29,243     (40.6%)
Total:    72,134

Non-Mobile:

Biden:   29,272     (30.2%)
Trump:  64,637     (66.8%)
Total:    96,768   

Needless to say these numbers would represent a Trump swing in Mobile and a Biden Swing in Rural as well as some unincorporated heavily Black areas around Prichard.

Also, to what extent should we assume that an increased voting pool would be equally distributed between the largest City, as well as what in many cases are primarily rural areas?

This also seems a bit counter-intuitive, even assuming that we buy the narrative that somehow there were significant and universal swings towards Trump among African-American voters in 2020?

In order to examine this further, it might behoove us to take a closer look at individual precincts... 

I'm not sure where you got that there was a Trump swing from? I have Clinton winning Mobile 55.8%-41.5%, and I'm pretty sure those percentages were calculated by you, so that would mean it swung TOWARDS Biden by 3 points.

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is for Fort Wayne, Indiana

Fort Wayne

Biden:  54,696 (50.25%)
Trump: 51,160 (47%)
Total: 108,847

Rest of Allen County

Trump: 40,923 (67.94%)
Biden:  18,493 (30.7%)
Trump: 60,235

Here's two for you - Terre Haute and Evansville. Wanna give them a shot?

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Evansville:

Biden:  22,748 (50.83%)
Trump:  21,075 (47.1%)
Total: 44,754

Rest of Vanderburgh County

Trump:  20,769 (63.11%)
Biden: 11,667 (36.34%)
Total: 32,908

And Terre Haute?

[Sailor Haumea]

And Here is Terre Haute, have to manually calculate as unfortunately Indiana uses PDF not Excel for files so takes a bit longer.

Terre Haute:

Biden: 10,277 (50.04%)
Trump: 9,706 (47.26%)
Total: 20,536

Rest of Vigo County

Trump: 14,839 (64.36%)
Biden: 7,846 (34.03%)
Total: 23,058

Would be interested in 2012 and 2016 results to see if the county getting more Republican was a result of Democrats not hitting the same margins in Terre Haute anymore or them utterly collapsing in the rurals. Wanna give it a go?

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to try the decently sized cities in Pulaski County?

Little Rock
North Little Rock
Jacksonville
Maumelle
Sherwood

Or the city of Conway?

[Sailor Haumea]

I talked with a resident of Oxford, MS on Twitter and the county precincts are such a mess that it's impossible to get precise numbers. The precincts primarily in the city voted 2,499 to 2,300 for Biden, but that excludes the precinct that includes the historical district...but also a lot of rural territory. Including that brings you up to 4,895 to 4,832 in favor of Biden. The precincts are so badly drawn that I think it's best to just say that Biden DID win the city, but it's impossible to get exact numbers.

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Springfield, Missouri.  This excludes absentee ballots, but it was fairly close so probably only changed by a percent or two if you include those, so below made an estimate on that

Absentee

Biden: 18,997 (52.67%)
Trump: 16,581 (45.97%)
Total: 36,237

Springfield

Trump:  25,364 (53.99%)
Biden: 19,837 (42.23%)
Total: 46977

Rest of Greene County

Trump: 41,685 (71.15%)
Biden: 16,234 (27,71%)
Total: 58,586

So adjusting

It is approximately

Springfield:

Trump 49%
Biden 47%

Rest of Greene County

Trump 66%
Biden 32%

So looks like Trump narrowly won Springfield.

Could you do Joplin? Kinda curious about it.

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Springfield, Missouri.  This excludes absentee ballots, but it was fairly close so probably only changed by a percent or two if you include those, so below made an estimate on that

Absentee

Biden: 18,997 (52.67%)
Trump: 16,581 (45.97%)
Total: 36,237

Springfield

Trump:  25,364 (53.99%)
Biden: 19,837 (42.23%)
Total: 46977

Rest of Greene County

Trump: 41,685 (71.15%)
Biden: 16,234 (27,71%)
Total: 58,586

So adjusting

It is approximately

Springfield:

Trump 49%
Biden 47%

Rest of Greene County

Trump 66%
Biden 32%

So looks like Trump narrowly won Springfield.

Could you do Joplin? Kinda curious about it.

I will try over weekend.

Mind doing Kirksville and Cape Girardeau too?

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to try Fort Smith, AR or Jonesboro, AR for both 2016 and 2020?

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to try Aberdeen, SD? Main problem is allocating the absentees. Would need to be a rough estimate.

Here's the voting center results that cover Aberdeen:

Absentee Precinct

Trump: 10,580
Biden: 6,538
Jorgensen: 260

Americinn Event Center

Trump: 992
Biden: 258
Jorgensen: 41

Best Western Ramkota Hotel and Event Center

Trump: 1,032
Biden: 282
Jorgensen: 41

Courthouse Community Room

Trump: 859
Biden: 353
Jorgensen: 46

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

How about, also from from the Rust Belt

Mansfield
Muncie
Ashtabula
Anderson
Lima

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

How about, also from from the Rust Belt

Mansfield
Muncie
Ashtabula
Anderson
Lima

The Ohio ones I can easily pull up, Indiana may be a bit tougher but I will try later.

Can you throw in Joplin, MO and Daytona Beach, FL?

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

How about, also from from the Rust Belt

Mansfield
Muncie
Ashtabula
Anderson
Lima

The Ohio ones I can easily pull up, Indiana may be a bit tougher but I will try later.

Can you throw in Joplin, MO and Daytona Beach, FL?

Joplin, Missouri I checked earlier and couldn't find data.  Can try Daytona Beach later.

Could you throw in Warren, Ohio, and Ocala and Palatka while you're looking at Florida?

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

How about, also from from the Rust Belt

Mansfield
Muncie
Ashtabula
Anderson
Lima

The Ohio ones I can easily pull up, Indiana may be a bit tougher but I will try later.

Can you throw in Joplin, MO and Daytona Beach, FL?

Joplin, Missouri I checked earlier and couldn't find data.  Can try Daytona Beach later.

Could you throw in Warren, Ohio, and Ocala and Palatka while you're looking at Florida?

Just realized I forgot to ask for results from Port St. Lucie too, I think, I meant to ask for results from there like two weeks ago in the thread.

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

How about, also from from the Rust Belt

Mansfield
Muncie
Ashtabula
Anderson
Lima

The Ohio ones I can easily pull up, Indiana may be a bit tougher but I will try later.

Can you throw in Joplin, MO and Daytona Beach, FL?

Joplin, Missouri I checked earlier and couldn't find data.  Can try Daytona Beach later.

Could you throw in Warren, Ohio, and Ocala and Palatka while you're looking at Florida?

Just realized I forgot to ask for results from Port St. Lucie too, I think, I meant to ask for results from there like two weeks ago in the thread.

I will get to those over time. 

Thanks! Looking forward to it.

[Sailor Haumea]

This is for St. Lucie County

Port St. Lucie

Trump: 61,410 (50.18%)
Biden: 59,979 (49.01%)

Rest of St. Lucie County

Trump: 25,421 (51.08%)
Biden: 24,158 (48.54%)

So really not much difference but its pretty sprawled out and Fort Pierce is like its own separate city.

For Volusia County it in PDF not spreadsheet form see http://www.volusiaelections.org/2020%20Updates/GEN%202020%20-%20Official%20Results%20-%20EL30A%20-%20Precinct%20Summary.pdf  If anybody has a faster way to do it that would be great, otherwise have to wait until weekend as will take a little while to calculate.

What about Ocala and Palatka, and Warren, OH?

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is three for Illinois, Winnebago County, Peoria County, and Sangamon County

Peoria:

Biden: 29,092 (61.02%)
Trump: 17,364 (36.42%)
Total: 47,679

Rest of Peoria County

Trump: 20,888 (57.56%)
Biden: 14,486 (39.92%)
Total: 36,288

Springfield:

Biden: 32,260 (55.04%)
Trump: 25,046 (42.73%)

Rest of Sangamon County

Trump: 28,433 (61.63%)
Biden: 16,657 (36.11%)
Total: 46,134

Rockford:

Biden: 33,702 (60.8%)
Trump: 20,453 (36.95)
Total: 55,434

Rest of Winnebago County

Trump: 40,407 (55.56%)
Biden: 30,354 (41.74%)
Total: 72,725

How about Charleston and Mattoon each vs. Coles County? Or Macomb vs. McDonough County?