Cities vs. rest of county

[mileslunn]

Here is Milwaukee vs. rest of Milwaukee County.

Milwaukee

Biden: 194,661 (78.8%)
Trump: 48,414 (19.6%)
Total: 246,946

Rest of Milwaukee County

Biden: 122,609 (57.8%)
Trump: 85,943 (40.5%)
Total: 212,015

Only Municipalities in Milwaukee county Trump won were Franklin, Hale's Corner, and Oak Creek and all on periphery as well by fairly narrow margins too.  Biden won big in the northern suburbs which I believe are heavily white college educated types.  Western and southern leaned Biden but more competitive which I believe are more working class.  Could be wrong, but didn't Romney and Bush 04 win rest of Milwaukee County?

[mileslunn]

A few from New England below.

Boston:

Biden:  242,717 (82.6%)
Trump: 45,425 (15.5%)
Total: 293,846

Rest of Suffolk County:

Biden: 27,805 (66.8%)
Trump: 13,188 (31.7%)
Total: 41,616

Providence:

Biden: 45,941 (80.8%)
Trump: 10,186 (17.9%)
Total: 56,858

rest of Providence County:

Biden: 120,347 (55.8%)
Trump: 92,450  (42.9%)
Total: 215,745

Hartford:

Biden: 28,301 (86.6%)
Trump: 4,116 (12.6%)
Total: 32,680

rest of Hartford County

Biden: 256,040 (61.3%)
Trump: 155,254 (37.2%)
Total: 417,843

[sguberman]

Is anyone doing Phoenix?

[NOVA Green]

Maricopa County- 2020-

I will follow up shortly with some additional information, but here is something to start with:

Biden- 58.5%          +19.0% Biden     (+4.5% DEM SWING)
Trump- 39.5%

[sguberman]

Maricopa County- 2020-

I will follow up shortly with some additional information, but here is something to start with:

Biden- 58.5%          +19.0% Biden     (+4.5% DEM SWING)
Trump- 39.5%

Are Phoenix, San Diego, and Dallas the only top 10 most populated cities when Biden did better margin wise than Clinton.

[mileslunn]

So for rest of Maricopa County, I get following,

Trump:  731,316 (52.2%)
Biden:  649,319 (46.4%)
Total: 1,400,215

So yes Trump won rest of Maricopa County, but much closer in suburbs than it usually is.  GOP better pray Phoenix suburbs don't start voting like Denver suburbs and instead are might like Las Vegas suburbs or they are in big trouble if they start voting like Denver suburbs.  Although skeptical they will even in a decade swing that far left.

[NOVA Green]

So to follow-up on my Maricopa County 2020 Post:

1.) Methodology---- Municipal results (generally) include both precincts located 100% within City Limits as well as split-precincts.

The reason for inclusion of split-precincts is both practical as well as logical.

      A.) Practical--- Maricopa County has a TON of precincts which include both slivers of real estate outside of City incorporated limits, as well as sometimes larger chunks of what are primarily undeveloped desert tracts.

    B.) Logical---  Housing developers in Maricopa County will generally work to incorporate new housing developments into municipal boundaries, so that residents of these newer developments have access to City level hookups including water, sewage hookups, etc...

It is possible you might have some "Desert Rats" included within these split-precincts, or possibly some older smaller developments that do not want their property taxes to go up by being taxed for City Services, but I strongly suspect the bulk of the population in these precincts reside within the "City Limits" proper.

2.) Precinct Changes

     A.) Maricopa County added ~ (25) new precincts between the 2016 and 2020 PRES General Elections.

     B.) A large majority of these new precincts were located within Mesa as well as a couple in Gilbert and Queen Creek.

    C.) There are a (4) precincts which were removed between 2016 and 2020 GE:

         Barbados (Gilbert)
         Marbella  (Gilbert)
         Modoc     (Phoenix)
         Tempe     (Tempe)

Although I don't have a 2016 GE Precinct Map at my finger tips, it appears that the ones in Gilbert were reorganizing precinct lines for the new precincts, and the one from Tempe is likely the new "Sun Devil" precinct located on the Arizona State University (Will need to double-check).

       D.) Vast majority of 2016 to 2020 precinct changes appear to have been reorganization of existing precincts, as well as absorbing existing precincts in UNINC areas into Municipalities.

MORE TO COME:

[NOVA Green]

Maricopa County 2016 to 2020 GE Results by City (Compare & Contrast).



Looking pretty sweet for Biden overall...

1.) Phoenix--- converting a +52.1k HRC Raw Vote margin to a + 127.1k margin ( +75k '20 net gain in the City... goes directly to the bank).

2.) Mesa--- Republican stronghold doesn't flip, but still keeping Trump at barely above 10%, with a +6.4% D Swing, alone shaved 5k off of PUB vote margins in AZ compared to '16.

3.) Swings in Sun City and Sun City West, were astonishing, in what has been traditionally been considered the "Southern California Retiree Communities"...

4.) Swings in Tempe, were somewhat predictable with high % of 3rd Party Voting in '16.

5.) Numbers out of Gilbert, Peoria, Surprise, and Buckeye, start to become problematic for Republicans in Arizona going forward...

Stay tuned for more from NOVA GREEN underground Pirate Radio....

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Sorry for doing this with two party vote, but here is Franklin vs. the rest of Williamson County, TN.  This is not precise because precinct lines don't correspond with municipal lines.  I tried to eyeball whether the majority of the population of a precinct would fall into Franklin when assigning split precincts.

Franklin: 59-41 Trump, 64-36 Hagerty, 65-35 Green
Rest of County: 66-34 Trump, 70-30 Hagerty, 70-30 Green

Probably Tuesday, I will have an in depth thread about Williamson County in 2020.

[NOVA Green]

Maricopa County:

(77) Precincts with +10% DEM Swings   ( I deleted a few with only a handful of voters)









Not to do a cliche, but "for each and every force there is an opposite reaction"

Precincts that swung towards Trump between '16 and '20:









I have not had a chance to data mine all of these numbers, but just skimming over the 2016 PRES data, it is clear that Trump improved his support in some of the most heavily Democratic Precincts of Maricopa County, at least on the margins.

[mileslunn]

Do you have the breakdown by municipality, be interested in which suburbs Biden win.  I presume Trump won most, but by narrower margins than normal.  Also seems Northwestern part is most heavily Republican.  Is that the part with a large Mormon community?

[cg41386]

He posted most of the cities above. I didn’t see Chandler or Queen Creek on it, though.

[Skye]

Anyone able to code Washoe County and get breakdown by city.  Curious what Reno, Sparks results were.

For Clark county, if someone can give me precinct #'s for Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Paradise, and Henderson, I can calculate those.  Especially curious if Trump held Henderson or Biden flipped it. 

I'm gonna post this here Miles, so that we keep the data organized, and not dispersed through several unrelated threads.

Anyways, I went through Clark County's PDF which conveniently labels the precincts located in the cities. Bear in mind, I converted the file to Excel, and then ran them through filters, so these numbers might have errors, I really don't know. If someone else has different numbers, feel free to correct me!

Las Vegas: Biden 54.25 - Trump 43.66
North Las Vegas: Biden 64.22 - Trump 33.54
Henderson: Trump 51.74 - Biden 46.29

Paradise is unincorporated, so its precincts are not labeled in the document. I'm afraid I cannot crunch the numbers for that one.

[mileslunn]

Anyone able to code Washoe County and get breakdown by city.  Curious what Reno, Sparks results were.

For Clark county, if someone can give me precinct #'s for Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Paradise, and Henderson, I can calculate those.  Especially curious if Trump held Henderson or Biden flipped it. 

I'm gonna post this here Miles, so that we keep the data organized, and not dispersed through several unrelated threads.

Anyways, I went through Clark County's PDF which conveniently labels the precincts located in the cities. Bear in mind, I converted the file to Excel, and then ran them through filters, so these numbers might have errors, I really don't know. If someone else has different numbers, feel free to correct me!

Las Vegas: Biden 54.25 - Trump 43.66
North Las Vegas: Biden 64.22 - Trump 33.54
Henderson: Trump 51.74 - Biden 46.29

Paradise is unincorporated, so its precincts are not labeled in the document. I'm afraid I cannot crunch the numbers for that one.

So looks like rest of Clark county almost same as Las Vegas?  Interesting as Trump getting 44% in Las Vegas is pretty high for a city. 

[Skye]

Anyone able to code Washoe County and get breakdown by city.  Curious what Reno, Sparks results were.

For Clark county, if someone can give me precinct #'s for Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Paradise, and Henderson, I can calculate those.  Especially curious if Trump held Henderson or Biden flipped it. 

I'm gonna post this here Miles, so that we keep the data organized, and not dispersed through several unrelated threads.

Anyways, I went through Clark County's PDF which conveniently labels the precincts located in the cities. Bear in mind, I converted the file to Excel, and then ran them through filters, so these numbers might have errors, I really don't know. If someone else has different numbers, feel free to correct me!

Las Vegas: Biden 54.25 - Trump 43.66
North Las Vegas: Biden 64.22 - Trump 33.54
Henderson: Trump 51.74 - Biden 46.29

Paradise is unincorporated, so its precincts are not labeled in the document. I'm afraid I cannot crunch the numbers for that one.

So looks like rest of Clark county almost same as Las Vegas?  Interesting as Trump getting 44% in Las Vegas is pretty high for a city. 

Compared to countywide numbers, it didn't move much vs 2016.

In 2016 the city voted 52.9-41.2 for Clinton.

[mileslunn]

Anyone able to code Washoe County and get breakdown by city.  Curious what Reno, Sparks results were.

For Clark county, if someone can give me precinct #'s for Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Paradise, and Henderson, I can calculate those.  Especially curious if Trump held Henderson or Biden flipped it. 

I'm gonna post this here Miles, so that we keep the data organized, and not dispersed through several unrelated threads.

Anyways, I went through Clark County's PDF which conveniently labels the precincts located in the cities. Bear in mind, I converted the file to Excel, and then ran them through filters, so these numbers might have errors, I really don't know. If someone else has different numbers, feel free to correct me!

Las Vegas: Biden 54.25 - Trump 43.66
North Las Vegas: Biden 64.22 - Trump 33.54
Henderson: Trump 51.74 - Biden 46.29

Paradise is unincorporated, so its precincts are not labeled in the document. I'm afraid I cannot crunch the numbers for that one.

So looks like rest of Clark county almost same as Las Vegas?  Interesting as Trump getting 44% in Las Vegas is pretty high for a city. 

Compared to countywide numbers, it didn't move much vs 2016.

In 2016 the city voted 52.9-41.2 for Clinton.

Wonder how things went by precinct.  Has large Hispanic community so did Trump like elsewhere improve in heavy Hispanic areas even if he lost them?  Likewise wondering if the heavily white areas swung towards Biden as it seems pretty much without exception almost all white areas in metro areas swung towards Biden even where Trump won them.

Also saw in Fox News exit poll Trump got 19% of African-American vote in Nevada which I believe was highest of any state.  Perhaps many working in service industry concerned about future lockdowns which Trump opposes.  By contrast looks like Biden won white females for Nevada while Romney won this group in 2012.

[Tintrlvr]

Anyone able to code Washoe County and get breakdown by city.  Curious what Reno, Sparks results were.

For Clark county, if someone can give me precinct #'s for Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Paradise, and Henderson, I can calculate those.  Especially curious if Trump held Henderson or Biden flipped it.  

I'm gonna post this here Miles, so that we keep the data organized, and not dispersed through several unrelated threads.

Anyways, I went through Clark County's PDF which conveniently labels the precincts located in the cities. Bear in mind, I converted the file to Excel, and then ran them through filters, so these numbers might have errors, I really don't know. If someone else has different numbers, feel free to correct me!

Las Vegas: Biden 54.25 - Trump 43.66
North Las Vegas: Biden 64.22 - Trump 33.54
Henderson: Trump 51.74 - Biden 46.29

Paradise is unincorporated, so its precincts are not labeled in the document. I'm afraid I cannot crunch the numbers for that one.

So looks like rest of Clark county almost same as Las Vegas?  Interesting as Trump getting 44% in Las Vegas is pretty high for a city.  

Compared to countywide numbers, it didn't move much vs 2016.

In 2016 the city voted 52.9-41.2 for Clinton.

Wonder how things went by precinct.  Has large Hispanic community so did Trump like elsewhere improve in heavy Hispanic areas even if he lost them?  Likewise wondering if the heavily white areas swung towards Biden as it seems pretty much without exception almost all white areas in metro areas swung towards Biden even where Trump won them.

Also saw in Fox News exit poll Trump got 19% of African-American vote in Nevada which I believe was highest of any state.  Perhaps many working in service industry concerned about future lockdowns which Trump opposes.  By contrast looks like Biden won white females for Nevada while Romney won this group in 2012.

Las Vegas proper includes a lot of rapid-growth suburban/exurban areas and excludes a lot of the urban core (much of which is in North Las Vegas and Paradise). The City of Las Vegas was only 32% Latino in 2010, barely more than Clark County as a whole (29%). A lot of the Latino population in Clark County is in unincorporated areas east of Las Vegas proper. Similar for the Black population; Las Vegas is 11% Black, same as Clark County, although North Las Vegas is 19% Black.

[mileslunn]

While not on list of requests here is for Washoe County

Reno:

Biden: 88,835 (52.3%)
Trump: 76,020 (44.8%)
Total: 169,786

Sparks:

Trump: 36,928 (49.9%)
Biden: 34,972 (47.3%)
Total: 74,002

Unincorporated parts

Biden: 4,245 (52%)
Trump: 3,705 (45.4%)
Total: 8,168

so rest of Washoe County

Trump: 40,633 (49.4%)
Biden: 39,217 (47.7%)
Total: 82,170

Quite shocked Biden won unincorporated parts, I assumed those would go heavily for Trump, but perhaps most are near Reno and the northern parts of county only a few precincts.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

While not on list of requests here is for Washoe County

Reno:

Biden: 88,835 (52.3%)
Trump: 76,020 (44.8%)
Total: 169,786

Sparks:

Trump: 36,928 (49.9%)
Biden: 34,972 (47.3%)
Total: 74,002

Unincorporated parts

Biden: 4,245 (52%)
Trump: 3,705 (45.4%)
Total: 8,168

so rest of Washoe County

Trump: 40,633 (49.4%)
Biden: 39,217 (47.7%)
Total: 82,170

Quite shocked Biden won unincorporated parts, I assumed those would go heavily for Trump, but perhaps most are near Reno and the northern parts of county only a few precincts.

There’s a Native American reservation in the southeast part of the county. Gerlach and Empire have barely anyone and I don’t think there’s anything more than a ranch or two north of the reservation (aside from Gerlach and Empire)

[mileslunn]

That makes sense as pretty sure the ranchers overwhelmingly went for Trump, but I expect on the Indian Reservation, Biden probably won pretty big.  I believe Native Americans are the second most reliably Democrat group after African-Americans.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

That makes sense as pretty sure the ranchers overwhelmingly went for Trump, but I expect on the Indian Reservation, Biden probably won pretty big.  I believe Native Americans are the second most reliably Democrat group after African-Americans.

I also forgot that Incline Village is in Washoe. That’s a ski resort area; not sure that it follows the general known pattern of those, but it would be easily identifiable with a precinct map.

[NOVA Green]

Jefferson County- 2020 PRES By City:



Jefferson County- 2017- US SEN- GE- Special Election:



Jefferson County- 2016 GE PRES By City:




@Mileslunn--- I'll see if I have easy precinct coding for Mobile County AL to quickly run the numbers off of, as you also requested elsewhere.

[NOVA Green]

Here's another take at Jefferson County Alabama--- compare / contrast swings and Total Votes between 2016 and 2020 US PRES GE results:

Mountain Brook numbers look odd....

[lfromnj]

Here's another take at Jefferson County Alabama--- compare / contrast swings and Total Votes between 2016 and 2020 US PRES GE results:

Mountain Brook numbers look odd....

Yeah thats definitely an error for Mountain Brook

[mileslunn]

So using similar format, I get following below

Birmingham:

Biden: 92,253 (83.1%)
Trump: 17,245 (15.5%)
Total: 111,002

Rest of Jefferson County

Trump: 121,198 (56.7%)
Biden: 88,683 (41.5%)
Total: 213,673

Looks like western part of county most heavily Trump, but I believe it is the more rural part while eastern part more suburban.  Birmingham I believe used to be more competitive for GOP, but hasn't city seen a lot of White flight to suburbs after past decade or two?
Total: