Cities vs. rest of county

[mileslunn]

Here is Springfield, Missouri.  This excludes absentee ballots, but it was fairly close so probably only changed by a percent or two if you include those, so below made an estimate on that

Absentee

Biden: 18,997 (52.67%)
Trump: 16,581 (45.97%)
Total: 36,237

Springfield

Trump:  25,364 (53.99%)
Biden: 19,837 (42.23%)
Total: 46977

Rest of Greene County

Trump: 41,685 (71.15%)
Biden: 16,234 (27,71%)
Total: 58,586

So adjusting

It is approximately

Springfield:

Trump 49%
Biden 47%

Rest of Greene County

Trump 66%
Biden 32%

So looks like Trump narrowly won Springfield.

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Springfield, Missouri.  This excludes absentee ballots, but it was fairly close so probably only changed by a percent or two if you include those, so below made an estimate on that

Absentee

Biden: 18,997 (52.67%)
Trump: 16,581 (45.97%)
Total: 36,237

Springfield

Trump:  25,364 (53.99%)
Biden: 19,837 (42.23%)
Total: 46977

Rest of Greene County

Trump: 41,685 (71.15%)
Biden: 16,234 (27,71%)
Total: 58,586

So adjusting

It is approximately

Springfield:

Trump 49%
Biden 47%

Rest of Greene County

Trump 66%
Biden 32%

So looks like Trump narrowly won Springfield.

Could you do Joplin? Kinda curious about it.

[mileslunn]

Here is Springfield, Missouri.  This excludes absentee ballots, but it was fairly close so probably only changed by a percent or two if you include those, so below made an estimate on that

Absentee

Biden: 18,997 (52.67%)
Trump: 16,581 (45.97%)
Total: 36,237

Springfield

Trump:  25,364 (53.99%)
Biden: 19,837 (42.23%)
Total: 46977

Rest of Greene County

Trump: 41,685 (71.15%)
Biden: 16,234 (27,71%)
Total: 58,586

So adjusting

It is approximately

Springfield:

Trump 49%
Biden 47%

Rest of Greene County

Trump 66%
Biden 32%

So looks like Trump narrowly won Springfield.

Could you do Joplin? Kinda curious about it.

I will try over weekend.

[mileslunn]

Here is Tulsa vs. rest of Tulsa County.  They only give vote in person by precinct, absentee is lumped together and precincts don't perfectly match boundaries, so this is a rough estimate adjusting for differences.

Tulsa:

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47%

Rest of Tulsa County

Trump: 67%
Biden: 30%

Trump won election day precincts 55-42 but for entire county, absentee was 61-36 while election day was 64-33 so I subtracted 8 points for Trump and added 8 for Biden but again rough estimate.

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Springfield, Missouri.  This excludes absentee ballots, but it was fairly close so probably only changed by a percent or two if you include those, so below made an estimate on that

Absentee

Biden: 18,997 (52.67%)
Trump: 16,581 (45.97%)
Total: 36,237

Springfield

Trump:  25,364 (53.99%)
Biden: 19,837 (42.23%)
Total: 46977

Rest of Greene County

Trump: 41,685 (71.15%)
Biden: 16,234 (27,71%)
Total: 58,586

So adjusting

It is approximately

Springfield:

Trump 49%
Biden 47%

Rest of Greene County

Trump 66%
Biden 32%

So looks like Trump narrowly won Springfield.

Could you do Joplin? Kinda curious about it.

I will try over weekend.

Mind doing Kirksville and Cape Girardeau too?

[mileslunn]

Here is Springfield, Missouri.  This excludes absentee ballots, but it was fairly close so probably only changed by a percent or two if you include those, so below made an estimate on that

Absentee

Biden: 18,997 (52.67%)
Trump: 16,581 (45.97%)
Total: 36,237

Springfield

Trump:  25,364 (53.99%)
Biden: 19,837 (42.23%)
Total: 46977

Rest of Greene County

Trump: 41,685 (71.15%)
Biden: 16,234 (27,71%)
Total: 58,586

So adjusting

It is approximately

Springfield:

Trump 49%
Biden 47%

Rest of Greene County

Trump 66%
Biden 32%

So looks like Trump narrowly won Springfield.

Could you do Joplin? Kinda curious about it.

I will try over weekend.

Mind doing Kirksville and Cape Girardeau too?

Will try to over next few days.

[mileslunn]

Here is Lancaster county, Pennsylvania

Lancaster:

Biden: 17,383 (73.4%)
Trump: 5,791 (24.5%)
Total: 23,683

Rest of Lancaster County

Trump: 154,418 (59.9%)
Biden: 98,464 (38.2%)
Total: 257,692

Lancaster is 38% Hispanic and 29% Puerto Rican thus despite Trump's gains amongst them still went heavily Democrat.  Rest of Lancaster County has a large Amish community who are quite conservative.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Lancaster County trends are very real and very fascinating. Biden last year was only the second Democrat since LBJ to get 40% in the county, the first being the ticket he was on in '08. LBJ is the only Democrat since Lancaster's own James Buchanan to carry the county, although it's voted for the occasional statewide Dem from time to time (such as in Bob Casey Sr's 1990 NUTslide). I'd be curious to see York vs York County as well; the county is ancestrally (pre-New Deal) Dem, and York has significant Black and Hispanic populations, but Biden couldn't crack 40% like Obama '12 and Carter '76 could.

[mileslunn]

Here is Greenville vs. rest of Greenville County.  Greenville actually voted for Biden despite being around 70% white so guessing more educated than other areas in South Carolina.

Greenville:

Biden: 19,447 (56.3%)
Trump: 14,284 (41.4%)
Total: 34,539

Rest of Greenville county

Trump: 134,789 (60.8%)
Biden: 83,029 (37.4%)
Total: 221,867

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to try Fort Smith, AR or Jonesboro, AR for both 2016 and 2020?

[perpetual_cynic]

The issue with calculating the results in North Carolina is that Wake, Mecklenburg and Durham Counties have Central Absentee Precincts and don't distribute the votes according to individual precinct.

[mileslunn]

Anyone want to try Fort Smith, AR or Jonesboro, AR for both 2016 and 2020?

I will work on them over next week.  Just to point out this was more to focus on large metro areas.  Essentially I created it to get greater detail how suburbs voted as looking just at neighboring counties only works in independent cities like San Francisco, Baltimore, Philadelphia etc.  Doesn't work when county includes suburbs and even can reveal interesting things.  Clark and Maricopa County are entire metro area so breaking it down shows division.  For Cleveland and Columbus, just looking at adjacent suburbs would suggest Trump won suburbs, but include Cuyahoga and Franklin county suburbs, looks like a split with Biden winning most close by suburbs and Trump only winning outerlying ones.  Even King County in Washington showed suburbs were even more lopsided for Biden then if you just looked at Snohomish and Pierce Counties.

I will however include those but perhaps we should do a separate thread for smaller cities as most smaller tend to lack suburbs and rest of county largely rural.  And we know rural areas have largely swung rightward while suburbs leftward.

[mileslunn]

Here is Chattanooga vs. rest of Hamilton county.  Pretty strong divide mind you suburbs and rural parts of Hamilton County very white while city itself has large African-American community.  Although in suburbs Trump won most but not by big margins while rural parts more heavily Trump.

Chattanooga:

Biden: 40,379 (62.1%)
Trump: 23,301 (35.8%)
Total: 65,022

Rest of Hamilton County

Trump: 68,477 (64.8%)
Biden: 35,105 (33.2%)
Total: 105,608

[mileslunn]

For Fort Smith, Arkansas vs. rest of Sebastian County.

Fort Smith

Trump: 16,820 (57.3%)
Biden: 11,475 (39.1%)
Total: 29,333

Rest of Sebastian County

Trump: 14,378 (80.7%)
Biden:  3,012 (16.9%)
Total: 17,807

For Joplin, Missouri doesn't look like have precinct results up but maybe someone could find them on this site https://www.jaspercounty.org/election.html

For Cape Girardeau vs. Cape Girardeau County have precinct breakdowns but only in person vote so below is that but knowing absentee is more Democrat I give below that rough estimate in percentages as they don't breakdown absentee ballots. 

Cape Girardeau:

Trump: 5,952 (61.2%)
Biden:  3,457 (35.6%)
Total: 9,718

Rest of Cape Girardeau County

Trump: 13,799 (82.5%)
Biden: 2,567 (15.3%)
Total: 16,728

So adjusting for difference between in person and absentee rough estimate is

Cape Girardeau

Trump 57%
Biden 40%

Rest of Cape Girardeau County

Trump 79%
Biden 19%

[mileslunn]

This is Knoxville vs. Knox County.  Admittedly this is by location of polling place as some precincts overlap so NOVA green might have slightly different #'s.  Another calculation by order showed Knoxville at 57% Biden to 40% Trump as the that was only 1-55 while 56-93 appeared to a mix so maybe someone could confirm

Knoxville

Biden: 62,343 (49%)
Trump: 62,034 (48.8%)
Total: 127,181

Rest of Knox County

Trump: 57,165 (69.7%)
Biden: 23,436 (28.6%)
Total: 81,977

If I do only 1-55 then I get

Knoxville:

Biden: 43,490 (57%)
Trump: 30,931 (40.6%)
Total: 76,268

Rest of Knox County

Trump: 93,609 (64.9%)
Biden: 47,932 (33.3%)
Total: 144,133

Second seems more reasonable but be nice if someone confirm which is correct.

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to try Aberdeen, SD? Main problem is allocating the absentees. Would need to be a rough estimate.

Here's the voting center results that cover Aberdeen:

Absentee Precinct

Trump: 10,580
Biden: 6,538
Jorgensen: 260

Americinn Event Center

Trump: 992
Biden: 258
Jorgensen: 41

Best Western Ramkota Hotel and Event Center

Trump: 1,032
Biden: 282
Jorgensen: 41

Courthouse Community Room

Trump: 859
Biden: 353
Jorgensen: 46

[mileslunn]

Here is Modesto, California

Modesto:

Biden: 46,065 (52.16%)
Trump: 39,039 (44.2%)
Total: 88,332

Rest of Stanislaus County

Trump: 65,106 (51%)
Biden: 59,776 (46.82%)
Total: 127,665

[mileslunn]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

[DabbingSanta]

Saline County, Nebraska was an ancestral Democratic county for much of the 20th century, but has trended hard Republican like most rural areas since 2008.  Interestingly enough, the largest city in the county, Crete, with a population of 6000, still votes Democrat at the federal level.  It is one of the few communities in the state outside the Lincoln and Omaha metros to do so.


Saline County:
Trump: 3631 (63%)
Biden: 1986 (34%)

Crete:
Biden: 947 (≈50.5%)
Trump: 930 (≈49.5%)

Rest of the county:
Trump: 2701 (≈72%)
Biden: 1039 (≈28%)

[mileslunn]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

How about, also from from the Rust Belt

Mansfield
Muncie
Ashtabula
Anderson
Lima

[mileslunn]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

How about, also from from the Rust Belt

Mansfield
Muncie
Ashtabula
Anderson
Lima

The Ohio ones I can easily pull up, Indiana may be a bit tougher but I will try later.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Fort Collins vs. Larimer County

Fort Collins:

Biden: 68,160 (67.82%)
Trump: 29,059 (28.91%)
Total: 100,500

Rest of Larimer County

Trump: 62,430 (50.4%)
Biden: 57,960 (46.8%)
Total: 123,840

Trump dominated suburbs and rural areas east of Rockies even narrowly winning Loveland.  Biden did win Estes Park and some parts in Rockies area.

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

How about, also from from the Rust Belt

Mansfield
Muncie
Ashtabula
Anderson
Lima

The Ohio ones I can easily pull up, Indiana may be a bit tougher but I will try later.

Can you throw in Joplin, MO and Daytona Beach, FL?