Cities vs. rest of county

[mileslunn]

Anyone want to take a crack at Gulfport, MS, and Biloxi, MS vs. Harrison County, or Oxford, MS vs. Lafayette County, or Ocean Springs, MS and Pascagoula, MS vs. Jackson County? I tried to calculate Gulfport, Biloxi, and Ocean Springs, but messed up bad and have no idea how to get correct results.

This is what I got but numbers look at bit small as some precincts by voting location so I only included those specifying name.

Biloxi

Trump: 5,077 (51.5%)
Biden: 4,577 (46.4%)
Total: 9,861

Gulfport

Biden: 6,253 (76.5%)
Trump: 1,784 (21.8%)
Total: 8,170

Rest of Harrison County:

Trump: 39,851 (69%)
Biden: 16,898 (29.3%)
Total: 57,737

Oxford

Trump: 7,506 (49.3%)
Biden: 7,440 (48.9%)
Total: 15,226

Rest of Lafayette County

Trump: 5,443 (66.4%)
Biden: 2,630 (32.1%)
Total: 8,197

For Jackson County will take a while as have to google where each voting place is located in.

I don't think these are right for Gulfport or Biloxi given that Trump narrowly carried Gulfport in 2016 and there's not that much of the county population that isn't in one of those two.

For sure, Gulfport makes no sense, although with it having a larger African-American population than Biloxi, possible Biden won it.  I just posted ones directly linked to one of the cities not those listing other things like church, school etc.  I can work on that but would take a bit longer.

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to take a crack at Gulfport, MS, and Biloxi, MS vs. Harrison County, or Oxford, MS vs. Lafayette County, or Ocean Springs, MS and Pascagoula, MS vs. Jackson County? I tried to calculate Gulfport, Biloxi, and Ocean Springs, but messed up bad and have no idea how to get correct results.

This is what I got but numbers look at bit small as some precincts by voting location so I only included those specifying name.

Biloxi

Trump: 5,077 (51.5%)
Biden: 4,577 (46.4%)
Total: 9,861

Gulfport

Biden: 6,253 (76.5%)
Trump: 1,784 (21.8%)
Total: 8,170

Rest of Harrison County:

Trump: 39,851 (69%)
Biden: 16,898 (29.3%)
Total: 57,737

Oxford

Trump: 7,506 (49.3%)
Biden: 7,440 (48.9%)
Total: 15,226

Rest of Lafayette County

Trump: 5,443 (66.4%)
Biden: 2,630 (32.1%)
Total: 8,197

For Jackson County will take a while as have to google where each voting place is located in.

I don't think these are right for Gulfport or Biloxi given that Trump narrowly carried Gulfport in 2016 and there's not that much of the county population that isn't in one of those two.

For sure, Gulfport makes no sense, although with it having a larger African-American population than Biloxi, possible Biden won it.  I just posted ones directly linked to one of the cities not those listing other things like church, school etc.  I can work on that but would take a bit longer.

I would appreciate you giving it a shot. Same for Oxford (which seems a bit too red).

[mileslunn]

I will try to get this fixed in next day and see what I can do.  Oxford seems quite believable as its Deep South where voting is very racially polarized.  In Mississippi unlike other states, GOP dominates whites pretty much everywhere, even in areas that would go Democrat in other states.

[NOVA Green]

Anyone want to take a crack at Gulfport, MS, and Biloxi, MS vs. Harrison County, or Oxford, MS vs. Lafayette County, or Ocean Springs, MS and Pascagoula, MS vs. Jackson County? I tried to calculate Gulfport, Biloxi, and Ocean Springs, but messed up bad and have no idea how to get correct results.

This is what I got but numbers look at bit small as some precincts by voting location so I only included those specifying name.

Biloxi

Trump: 5,077 (51.5%)
Biden: 4,577 (46.4%)
Total: 9,861

Gulfport

Biden: 6,253 (76.5%)
Trump: 1,784 (21.8%)
Total: 8,170

Rest of Harrison County:

Trump: 39,851 (69%)
Biden: 16,898 (29.3%)
Total: 57,737

Oxford

Trump: 7,506 (49.3%)
Biden: 7,440 (48.9%)
Total: 15,226

Rest of Lafayette County

Trump: 5,443 (66.4%)
Biden: 2,630 (32.1%)
Total: 8,197

For Jackson County will take a while as have to google where each voting place is located in.

I don't think these are right for Gulfport or Biloxi given that Trump narrowly carried Gulfport in 2016 and there's not that much of the county population that isn't in one of those two.

For sure, Gulfport makes no sense, although with it having a larger African-American population than Biloxi, possible Biden won it.  I just posted ones directly linked to one of the cities not those listing other things like church, school etc.  I can work on that but would take a bit longer.

I would appreciate you giving it a shot. Same for Oxford (which seems a bit too red).

Let's Revisit this....

First thing to note is that Harrison County, Mississippi does have a bit of a split-precinct problem, that makes it impossible to get exact municipal numbers...

Also, it looks like a few precincts were eliminated and added between 2016 and 2020, so for the present moment, I will abstain on my typical attempt to do a comparison between both elections (Although I do have the '16 precinct files so will attempt to do a follow-up with best comparisons shortly)....

Biloxi--- 2020:

Here are the precincts which I included as being overwhelmingly and primarily located within Biloxi.

 

Here are the precincts which I excluded, although they contain portions of the City of Biloxi, it appears that the majority (and likely large majority of the population is located outside of City Limits).



Gulfport--- 2020:

Here are the precincts overwhelmingly located within Gulfport, Mississippi:



Here are precincts which include parts of the City, but are overwhelmingly non-City limits territory.

I haven't run the census tract maps to try to model yet, but...



Looking pretty clear to the naked eye that Biden won Gulfport, Mississippi, although possibly by a relatively minor margin....   

[Sailor Haumea]

Thank you! It looks like my numbers were actually only a little bit too red for Biloxi, but I was WAY off for Gulfport (I included the two mostly non-Gulfport precincts, so I wound up with Trump+9). Wanna try Ocean Springs and Oxford too?

[Sailor Haumea]

I'd also appreciate if someone took a crack at Martinsburg, WV. Seems entirely possible that Biden won it but I'd need numbers to be sure.

[Sailor Haumea]

I'd also appreciate if someone took a crack at Martinsburg, WV. Seems entirely possible that Biden won it but I'd need numbers to be sure.

I just calculated these results - Biden appears to have won the city of Martinsburg, West Virginia by NINETEEN VOTES:

Biden: 3,335 (49.01%)
Trump: 3,316 (48.73%)
Others: 154 (2.26%) (127 for Jorgensen, 27 for Hawkins)

[Sailor Haumea]

I will try to get this fixed in next day and see what I can do.  Oxford seems quite believable as its Deep South where voting is very racially polarized.  In Mississippi unlike other states, GOP dominates whites pretty much everywhere, even in areas that would go Democrat in other states.

Looking at the precinct map these numbers actually appear to be correct for Oxford. Not 100% sure but looks like we arrived at the same vote numbers.

[mileslunn]

Using following link, anyone able to calculate Huntsville vs. rest of Madison County; Montgomery rest of Montgomery County and Mobile vs. rest of Mobile Count

https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-data

[NOVA Green]

Using following link, anyone able to calculate Huntsville vs. rest of Madison County; Montgomery rest of Montgomery County and Mobile vs. rest of Mobile Count

https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-data

Mobile, Alabama has a few challenges which make it a bit trickier in calculating City results compared to some other places:

1.) There are some precincts which are split precints.
2.) Absentee & Provisional ballots are counted separately and not assigned to a precinct.

That being said, I went through and coded precincts in Mobile County and assigned them to the City of Mobile or not to the City of Mobile based upon weather the precinct appeared to be clearly predominately not a majority City precinct or if it appeared to be clearly majority City precinct.

That left me with (2) precincts which looked closer to a roughly 50%-50% City / Non-City:

Precinct # 31: Robert L. Hope Community Center (Split with the Unincorporated Community of Prichard directly North of NE Mobile).

Precinct #77: Cypress Shores Baptist Church (Includes the Cypress Shores neighborhood of Mobile with part of the Uninc area of Tillmans Corner).

For sake of simplicity, I included both within the numbers for Mobile, Alabama in 2020 (One is an overwhelmingly Democratic precinct and the other is an overwhelmingly Republican Precinct).

Here are the precincts which I coded as part of Mobile, Alabama's numbers:





2020 GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          37,204      (56.4%)        +14.5% Biden     (+6.0% Trump Swing)
Trump:         27,626      (41.9%)
Misc:             1,083       ( 1.6%)
Total:           65,913                          -10.7% TV 2016    to 2020

2016: GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:          43,493       (58.9%)        +20.5% HRC    
Trump:       28,322      (38.4%)
Misc:           2,006        ( 2.7%)
Total:         73,821

NOW IT STARTS TO GET A BIT TRICKY!!!

Let's start with looking at the 2016 and 2020: GE PRES from all of the other precincts:

2020 GE PRES Non-Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          24,008      (26.0%)        +46.7% Trump      (+4.4 % Trump Swing).
Trump:         67,113      (72.7%)
Misc:             1,135      ( 1.6%)
Total:           92,256                          +3.0% Increase in TV 2016 > 2020

2016 GE PRES Non-Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:          24,936      (27.8%)        +42.3%  Trump  
Trump:       62,765      (70.1%)
Misc:           1,865        (2.1%)
Total:         89,566

Absentee / Provisional Ballots:

2020 GE PRES County Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          18,262     (73.1%)        +47.1% Biden       (+53.2% DEM Swing)
Trump:          6,504      (26.0%)
Misc:               229      ( 0.9%)
Total:           24,995                         +344.4% TV Increase 2016    to 2020

2016: GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:            2,572      (45.7%)        +6.1%Trump     (+5.3% Trump Swing).
Trump:         2,915      (51.8%)
Misc:              138        ( 2.7%)
Total:           5,625

How can we possibly separate the Mobile & Non-Mobile numbers considering the surge of Absentee votes between '16 and '20?

2016:  TV PRES Votes: 169,012
2020:  TV PRES Votes: 183,164       +14,152 Votes (+7.8% 2016 > 2020 TV I increase..

2016: Absentee / Provisionals--- 3.3% of County Vote
2020: Absentee / Provisionals--- 13.6% of County Vote

I could try to run a bit of a compare / contrast by precinct in terms of '16 > '20 TV numbers and then look at the % increase, but unfortunately won't account for representative turnout by place, let alone swings within the City of Mobile.

County wide you got some heavily Black precincts in UNINC area like Prichard and Chickasaw, just North of City Limits, but heavily White Rural 90%+ Trump precincts elsewhere.

Makes it much harder to see where the swings were at in Mobile County Alabama..

[mileslunn]

I will try to get this fixed in next day and see what I can do.  Oxford seems quite believable as its Deep South where voting is very racially polarized.  In Mississippi unlike other states, GOP dominates whites pretty much everywhere, even in areas that would go Democrat in other states.

Looking at the precinct map these numbers actually appear to be correct for Oxford. Not 100% sure but looks like we arrived at the same vote numbers.

Do you have Boise vs. rest of Ada County and also Colorado Springs vs. rest of El Paso County?

[NOVA Green]

Using following link, anyone able to calculate Huntsville vs. rest of Madison County; Montgomery rest of Montgomery County and Mobile vs. rest of Mobile Count

https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-data

Mobile, Alabama has a few challenges which make it a bit trickier in calculating City results compared to some other places:

1.) There are some precincts which are split precints.
2.) Absentee & Provisional ballots are counted separately and not assigned to a precinct.

That being said, I went through and coded precincts in Mobile County and assigned them to the City of Mobile or not to the City of Mobile based upon weather the precinct appeared to be clearly predominately not a majority City precinct or if it appeared to be clearly majority City precinct.

That left me with (2) precincts which looked closer to a roughly 50%-50% City / Non-City:

Precinct # 31: Robert L. Hope Community Center (Split with the Unincorporated Community of Prichard directly North of NE Mobile).

Precinct #77: Cypress Shores Baptist Church (Includes the Cypress Shores neighborhood of Mobile with part of the Uninc area of Tillmans Corner).

For sake of simplicity, I included both within the numbers for Mobile, Alabama in 2020 (One is an overwhelmingly Democratic precinct and the other is an overwhelmingly Republican Precinct).

Here are the precincts which I coded as part of Mobile, Alabama's numbers:





2020 GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          37,204      (56.4%)        +14.5% Biden     (+6.0% Trump Swing)
Trump:         27,626      (41.9%)
Misc:             1,083       ( 1.6%)
Total:           65,913                          -10.7% TV 2016    to 2020

2016: GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:          43,493       (58.9%)        +20.5% HRC    
Trump:       28,322      (38.4%)
Misc:           2,006        ( 2.7%)
Total:         73,821

NOW IT STARTS TO GET A BIT TRICKY!!!

Let's start with looking at the 2016 and 2020: GE PRES from all of the other precincts:

2020 GE PRES Non-Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          24,008      (26.0%)        +46.7% Trump      (+4.4 % Trump Swing).
Trump:         67,113      (72.7%)
Misc:             1,135      ( 1.6%)
Total:           92,256                          +3.0% Increase in TV 2016 > 2020

2016 GE PRES Non-Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:          24,936      (27.8%)        +42.3%  Trump  
Trump:       62,765      (70.1%)
Misc:           1,865        (2.1%)
Total:         89,566

Absentee / Provisional Ballots:

2020 GE PRES County Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          18,262     (73.1%)        +47.1% Biden       (+53.2% DEM Swing)
Trump:          6,504      (26.0%)
Misc:               229      ( 0.9%)
Total:           24,995                         +344.4% TV Increase 2016    to 2020

2016: GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:            2,572      (45.7%)        +6.1%Trump     (+5.3% Trump Swing).
Trump:         2,915      (51.8%)
Misc:              138        ( 2.7%)
Total:           5,625

How can we possibly separate the Mobile & Non-Mobile numbers considering the surge of Absentee votes between '16 and '20?

2016:  TV PRES Votes: 169,012
2020:  TV PRES Votes: 183,164       +14,152 Votes (+7.8% 2016 > 2020 TV I increase..

2016: Absentee / Provisionals--- 3.3% of County Vote
2020: Absentee / Provisionals--- 13.6% of County Vote

I could try to run a bit of a compare / contrast by precinct in terms of '16 > '20 TV numbers and then look at the % increase, but unfortunately won't account for representative turnout by place, let alone swings within the City of Mobile.

County wide you got some heavily Black precincts in UNINC area like Prichard and Chickasaw, just North of City Limits, but heavily White Rural 90%+ Trump precincts elsewhere.

Makes it much harder to see where the swings were at in Mobile County Alabama..

So I thought it might be interesting to take a slightly closer view at Mobile County vs City, especially considering the significant increase in Absentee Voters between 2016 and 2020 GE PRES.

Although it seems intuitive to associate the bulk of these votes with the City of Mobile, considering the dramatic decrease in "Regular Precinct Votes" between 2016 and 2020, as well as the fact that the bulk of the heavily Democratic precincts within the County are located within the City itself AND the composition of the Absentee / Provisional Ballots skewed overwhelmingly Democratic, I thought it might be worthwhile to examine this in further detail.

So for example if we look at the 2016 GE PRES numbers (Using the precinct coding above), here are the respective breakdowns of the County Vote Share by Place:

Mobile City:              43.7%
Non-Mobile City:       54.3%
Absentee:                  3.3 %

2020 GE PRES numbers for contrast, here are the respective breakdowns of the County Vote Share by Place:

Mobile City:              36.0%
Non-Mobile City:       50.4%
Absentee:                 13.6 %

So we could be reductionist and simply assign GE PRES 2020 absentee / Provisional voters 24,995 by the 2016 City / Non-City Vote Share and end up with something like the following:

Mobile:           + 6,221
Non-Mobile:    + 7,202
Absentee:          6,044 

This would add the following to the City / Non-City Tallies using the 73.1% Biden- 26.0 Trump breakdown:

Mobile:         Biden + 4,547,    Trump +  1,617
Non-Mobile:  Biden + 5,264     Trump +  1,872

This would end up looking like something as the following:

Mobile: 

Biden:   41,751     (57.9%)
Trump:  29,243     (40.6%)
Total:    72,134

Non-Mobile:

Biden:   29,272     (30.2%)
Trump:  64,637     (66.8%)
Total:    96,768   

Needless to say these numbers would represent a Trump swing in Mobile and a Biden Swing in Rural as well as some unincorporated heavily Black areas around Prichard.

Also, to what extent should we assume that an increased voting pool would be equally distributed between the largest City, as well as what in many cases are primarily rural areas?

This also seems a bit counter-intuitive, even assuming that we buy the narrative that somehow there were significant and universal swings towards Trump among African-American voters in 2020?

In order to examine this further, it might behoove us to take a closer look at individual precincts... 

[Sailor Haumea]

Using following link, anyone able to calculate Huntsville vs. rest of Madison County; Montgomery rest of Montgomery County and Mobile vs. rest of Mobile Count

https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-data

Mobile, Alabama has a few challenges which make it a bit trickier in calculating City results compared to some other places:

1.) There are some precincts which are split precints.
2.) Absentee & Provisional ballots are counted separately and not assigned to a precinct.

That being said, I went through and coded precincts in Mobile County and assigned them to the City of Mobile or not to the City of Mobile based upon weather the precinct appeared to be clearly predominately not a majority City precinct or if it appeared to be clearly majority City precinct.

That left me with (2) precincts which looked closer to a roughly 50%-50% City / Non-City:

Precinct # 31: Robert L. Hope Community Center (Split with the Unincorporated Community of Prichard directly North of NE Mobile).

Precinct #77: Cypress Shores Baptist Church (Includes the Cypress Shores neighborhood of Mobile with part of the Uninc area of Tillmans Corner).

For sake of simplicity, I included both within the numbers for Mobile, Alabama in 2020 (One is an overwhelmingly Democratic precinct and the other is an overwhelmingly Republican Precinct).

Here are the precincts which I coded as part of Mobile, Alabama's numbers:





2020 GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          37,204      (56.4%)        +14.5% Biden     (+6.0% Trump Swing)
Trump:         27,626      (41.9%)
Misc:             1,083       ( 1.6%)
Total:           65,913                          -10.7% TV 2016    to 2020

2016: GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:          43,493       (58.9%)        +20.5% HRC    
Trump:       28,322      (38.4%)
Misc:           2,006        ( 2.7%)
Total:         73,821

NOW IT STARTS TO GET A BIT TRICKY!!!

Let's start with looking at the 2016 and 2020: GE PRES from all of the other precincts:

2020 GE PRES Non-Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          24,008      (26.0%)        +46.7% Trump      (+4.4 % Trump Swing).
Trump:         67,113      (72.7%)
Misc:             1,135      ( 1.6%)
Total:           92,256                          +3.0% Increase in TV 2016 > 2020

2016 GE PRES Non-Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:          24,936      (27.8%)        +42.3%  Trump  
Trump:       62,765      (70.1%)
Misc:           1,865        (2.1%)
Total:         89,566

Absentee / Provisional Ballots:

2020 GE PRES County Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          18,262     (73.1%)        +47.1% Biden       (+53.2% DEM Swing)
Trump:          6,504      (26.0%)
Misc:               229      ( 0.9%)
Total:           24,995                         +344.4% TV Increase 2016    to 2020

2016: GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:            2,572      (45.7%)        +6.1%Trump     (+5.3% Trump Swing).
Trump:         2,915      (51.8%)
Misc:              138        ( 2.7%)
Total:           5,625

How can we possibly separate the Mobile & Non-Mobile numbers considering the surge of Absentee votes between '16 and '20?

2016:  TV PRES Votes: 169,012
2020:  TV PRES Votes: 183,164       +14,152 Votes (+7.8% 2016 > 2020 TV I increase..

2016: Absentee / Provisionals--- 3.3% of County Vote
2020: Absentee / Provisionals--- 13.6% of County Vote

I could try to run a bit of a compare / contrast by precinct in terms of '16 > '20 TV numbers and then look at the % increase, but unfortunately won't account for representative turnout by place, let alone swings within the City of Mobile.

County wide you got some heavily Black precincts in UNINC area like Prichard and Chickasaw, just North of City Limits, but heavily White Rural 90%+ Trump precincts elsewhere.

Makes it much harder to see where the swings were at in Mobile County Alabama..

So I thought it might be interesting to take a slightly closer view at Mobile County vs City, especially considering the significant increase in Absentee Voters between 2016 and 2020 GE PRES.

Although it seems intuitive to associate the bulk of these votes with the City of Mobile, considering the dramatic decrease in "Regular Precinct Votes" between 2016 and 2020, as well as the fact that the bulk of the heavily Democratic precincts within the County are located within the City itself AND the composition of the Absentee / Provisional Ballots skewed overwhelmingly Democratic, I thought it might be worthwhile to examine this in further detail.

So for example if we look at the 2016 GE PRES numbers (Using the precinct coding above), here are the respective breakdowns of the County Vote Share by Place:

Mobile City:              43.7%
Non-Mobile City:       54.3%
Absentee:                  3.3 %

2020 GE PRES numbers for contrast, here are the respective breakdowns of the County Vote Share by Place:

Mobile City:              36.0%
Non-Mobile City:       50.4%
Absentee:                 13.6 %

So we could be reductionist and simply assign GE PRES 2020 absentee / Provisional voters 24,995 by the 2016 City / Non-City Vote Share and end up with something like the following:

Mobile:           + 6,221
Non-Mobile:    + 7,202
Absentee:          6,044 

This would add the following to the City / Non-City Tallies using the 73.1% Biden- 26.0 Trump breakdown:

Mobile:         Biden + 4,547,    Trump +  1,617
Non-Mobile:  Biden + 5,264     Trump +  1,872

This would end up looking like something as the following:

Mobile: 

Biden:   41,751     (57.9%)
Trump:  29,243     (40.6%)
Total:    72,134

Non-Mobile:

Biden:   29,272     (30.2%)
Trump:  64,637     (66.8%)
Total:    96,768   

Needless to say these numbers would represent a Trump swing in Mobile and a Biden Swing in Rural as well as some unincorporated heavily Black areas around Prichard.

Also, to what extent should we assume that an increased voting pool would be equally distributed between the largest City, as well as what in many cases are primarily rural areas?

This also seems a bit counter-intuitive, even assuming that we buy the narrative that somehow there were significant and universal swings towards Trump among African-American voters in 2020?

In order to examine this further, it might behoove us to take a closer look at individual precincts... 

I'm not sure where you got that there was a Trump swing from? I have Clinton winning Mobile 55.8%-41.5%, and I'm pretty sure those percentages were calculated by you, so that would mean it swung TOWARDS Biden by 3 points.

[NOVA Green]

Using following link, anyone able to calculate Huntsville vs. rest of Madison County; Montgomery rest of Montgomery County and Mobile vs. rest of Mobile Count

https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-data

Mobile, Alabama has a few challenges which make it a bit trickier in calculating City results compared to some other places:

1.) There are some precincts which are split precints.
2.) Absentee & Provisional ballots are counted separately and not assigned to a precinct.

That being said, I went through and coded precincts in Mobile County and assigned them to the City of Mobile or not to the City of Mobile based upon weather the precinct appeared to be clearly predominately not a majority City precinct or if it appeared to be clearly majority City precinct.

That left me with (2) precincts which looked closer to a roughly 50%-50% City / Non-City:

Precinct # 31: Robert L. Hope Community Center (Split with the Unincorporated Community of Prichard directly North of NE Mobile).

Precinct #77: Cypress Shores Baptist Church (Includes the Cypress Shores neighborhood of Mobile with part of the Uninc area of Tillmans Corner).

For sake of simplicity, I included both within the numbers for Mobile, Alabama in 2020 (One is an overwhelmingly Democratic precinct and the other is an overwhelmingly Republican Precinct).

Here are the precincts which I coded as part of Mobile, Alabama's numbers:





2020 GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          37,204      (56.4%)        +14.5% Biden     (+6.0% Trump Swing)
Trump:         27,626      (41.9%)
Misc:             1,083       ( 1.6%)
Total:           65,913                          -10.7% TV 2016    to 2020

2016: GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:          43,493       (58.9%)        +20.5% HRC    
Trump:       28,322      (38.4%)
Misc:           2,006        ( 2.7%)
Total:         73,821

NOW IT STARTS TO GET A BIT TRICKY!!!

Let's start with looking at the 2016 and 2020: GE PRES from all of the other precincts:

2020 GE PRES Non-Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          24,008      (26.0%)        +46.7% Trump      (+4.4 % Trump Swing).
Trump:         67,113      (72.7%)
Misc:             1,135      ( 1.6%)
Total:           92,256                          +3.0% Increase in TV 2016 > 2020

2016 GE PRES Non-Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:          24,936      (27.8%)        +42.3%  Trump  
Trump:       62,765      (70.1%)
Misc:           1,865        (2.1%)
Total:         89,566

Absentee / Provisional Ballots:

2020 GE PRES County Absentees / Provisionals:

Biden:          18,262     (73.1%)        +47.1% Biden       (+53.2% DEM Swing)
Trump:          6,504      (26.0%)
Misc:               229      ( 0.9%)
Total:           24,995                         +344.4% TV Increase 2016    to 2020

2016: GE PRES Mobile Non-Absentees / Provisionals:

HRC:            2,572      (45.7%)        +6.1%Trump     (+5.3% Trump Swing).
Trump:         2,915      (51.8%)
Misc:              138        ( 2.7%)
Total:           5,625

How can we possibly separate the Mobile & Non-Mobile numbers considering the surge of Absentee votes between '16 and '20?

2016:  TV PRES Votes: 169,012
2020:  TV PRES Votes: 183,164       +14,152 Votes (+7.8% 2016 > 2020 TV I increase..

2016: Absentee / Provisionals--- 3.3% of County Vote
2020: Absentee / Provisionals--- 13.6% of County Vote

I could try to run a bit of a compare / contrast by precinct in terms of '16 > '20 TV numbers and then look at the % increase, but unfortunately won't account for representative turnout by place, let alone swings within the City of Mobile.

County wide you got some heavily Black precincts in UNINC area like Prichard and Chickasaw, just North of City Limits, but heavily White Rural 90%+ Trump precincts elsewhere.

Makes it much harder to see where the swings were at in Mobile County Alabama..

So I thought it might be interesting to take a slightly closer view at Mobile County vs City, especially considering the significant increase in Absentee Voters between 2016 and 2020 GE PRES.

Although it seems intuitive to associate the bulk of these votes with the City of Mobile, considering the dramatic decrease in "Regular Precinct Votes" between 2016 and 2020, as well as the fact that the bulk of the heavily Democratic precincts within the County are located within the City itself AND the composition of the Absentee / Provisional Ballots skewed overwhelmingly Democratic, I thought it might be worthwhile to examine this in further detail.

So for example if we look at the 2016 GE PRES numbers (Using the precinct coding above), here are the respective breakdowns of the County Vote Share by Place:

Mobile City:              43.7%
Non-Mobile City:       54.3%
Absentee:                  3.3 %

2020 GE PRES numbers for contrast, here are the respective breakdowns of the County Vote Share by Place:

Mobile City:              36.0%
Non-Mobile City:       50.4%
Absentee:                 13.6 %

So we could be reductionist and simply assign GE PRES 2020 absentee / Provisional voters 24,995 by the 2016 City / Non-City Vote Share and end up with something like the following:

Mobile:           + 6,221
Non-Mobile:    + 7,202
Absentee:          6,044 

This would add the following to the City / Non-City Tallies using the 73.1% Biden- 26.0 Trump breakdown:

Mobile:         Biden + 4,547,    Trump +  1,617
Non-Mobile:  Biden + 5,264     Trump +  1,872

This would end up looking like something as the following:

Mobile: 

Biden:   41,751     (57.9%)
Trump:  29,243     (40.6%)
Total:    72,134

Non-Mobile:

Biden:   29,272     (30.2%)
Trump:  64,637     (66.8%)
Total:    96,768   

Needless to say these numbers would represent a Trump swing in Mobile and a Biden Swing in Rural as well as some unincorporated heavily Black areas around Prichard.

Also, to what extent should we assume that an increased voting pool would be equally distributed between the largest City, as well as what in many cases are primarily rural areas?

This also seems a bit counter-intuitive, even assuming that we buy the narrative that somehow there were significant and universal swings towards Trump among African-American voters in 2020?

In order to examine this further, it might behoove us to take a closer look at individual precincts... 

I'm not sure where you got that there was a Trump swing from? I have Clinton winning Mobile 55.8%-41.5%, and I'm pretty sure those percentages were calculated by you, so that would mean it swung TOWARDS Biden by 3 points.

I am using the precinct list above for both 2016 and 2020, for what qualifies as "Mobile Precincts".

I believe what happened is that I went through and re-examined my more generous coding, which I had originally used for 2016 when it came to split-precincts, which resulted in several overwhelmingly Republican, primarily "non-city precincts" being excluded.

Regardless, the numbers above for both 2016 and 2020 include the same precincts, since although there were a few precincts eliminated / merged between '16 & '20 (Precincts # 3, 10, & 47) the precinct numbers remain intact for all of the others.

Now, it is entirely possible that because every precinct in Mobile County in 2016 had (2) sub-precincts as well as in a few cases (3) sub-precincts, that the original numbers I calculated back when might have actually been more accurate for City totals in 2016 !!!

It does look like the New York Times merged the sub-precincts in their 2016 Map, whereas, I may have parsed them out at the time?

Regardless, Split-Precincts are one of the biggest pet-peeves of many of us, since not only are they a relic from the ancient times of in-person voting, but additionally are far removed from the concept that occasionally you might a few small slivers of uninc areas with small numbers of voters waiting to decide whether or not to accept City taxes in exchange for municipal services, but effectively are a tool of lazy and incompetent county officials, who are less interested in election transparency, and more interested in property tax valuation as part of their Civic Duties.

(Rant aside---- I feel better now).   

[mileslunn]

Here is for Fort Wayne, Indiana

Fort Wayne

Biden:  54,696 (50.25%)
Trump: 51,160 (47%)
Total: 108,847

Rest of Allen County

Trump: 40,923 (67.94%)
Biden:  18,493 (30.7%)
Trump: 60,235

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is for Fort Wayne, Indiana

Fort Wayne

Biden:  54,696 (50.25%)
Trump: 51,160 (47%)
Total: 108,847

Rest of Allen County

Trump: 40,923 (67.94%)
Biden:  18,493 (30.7%)
Trump: 60,235

Here's two for you - Terre Haute and Evansville. Wanna give them a shot?

[mileslunn]

Here is for Fort Wayne, Indiana

Fort Wayne

Biden:  54,696 (50.25%)
Trump: 51,160 (47%)
Total: 108,847

Rest of Allen County

Trump: 40,923 (67.94%)
Biden:  18,493 (30.7%)
Trump: 60,235

Here's two for you - Terre Haute and Evansville. Wanna give them a shot?

Ironically Terre Hate and Evansville were 50% Biden to 47% Trump

[mileslunn]

Here is Evansville:

Biden:  22,748 (50.83%)
Trump:  21,075 (47.1%)
Total: 44,754

Rest of Vanderburgh County

Trump:  20,769 (63.11%)
Biden: 11,667 (36.34%)
Total: 32,908

[Sailor Haumea]

Here is Evansville:

Biden:  22,748 (50.83%)
Trump:  21,075 (47.1%)
Total: 44,754

Rest of Vanderburgh County

Trump:  20,769 (63.11%)
Biden: 11,667 (36.34%)
Total: 32,908

And Terre Haute?

[mileslunn]

And Here is Terre Haute, have to manually calculate as unfortunately Indiana uses PDF not Excel for files so takes a bit longer.

Terre Haute:

Biden: 10,277 (50.04%)
Trump: 9,706 (47.26%)
Total: 20,536

Rest of Vigo County

Trump: 14,839 (64.36%)
Biden: 7,846 (34.03%)
Total: 23,058

[Sailor Haumea]

And Here is Terre Haute, have to manually calculate as unfortunately Indiana uses PDF not Excel for files so takes a bit longer.

Terre Haute:

Biden: 10,277 (50.04%)
Trump: 9,706 (47.26%)
Total: 20,536

Rest of Vigo County

Trump: 14,839 (64.36%)
Biden: 7,846 (34.03%)
Total: 23,058

Would be interested in 2012 and 2016 results to see if the county getting more Republican was a result of Democrats not hitting the same margins in Terre Haute anymore or them utterly collapsing in the rurals. Wanna give it a go?

[NOVA Green]

Mobile County--- Alabama--- 2016 to 2020 Changes in Total Vote by Precinct:

In order to assess the changed voting patterns between 2016 and 2020, and where many of the Absentee Votes came from, it is important to look at the Raw Total Vote decrease between '16 and '20 by precinct.

Here are precincts where the Total Vote in 2020 was a 20% decrease from 2016 Total Votes:



Here is a precinct map showing where the 2020 TV was a 20%+ decrease from 2016 TVs:



Now let's try to overlap that with the largest concentrations of African-Americans within Metro Mobile:





What does this even mean?

It appears that there was a significant decrease in same day / early voting in the most heavily African-American precincts within Mobile County.

2020:

Biden:         18,964     (85.6%)          +72.3% Biden    (+5.3% Trump Swing)
Trump:          2,946     (13.3%)
Total:          22,146                           -26.4% Total Vote 2016 to 2020

2016:

HRC:         26,492      (88.1%)           +77.6% HRC
Trump:        3,147      (10.5%)
Total:        30,083

It is not unreasonable to assume that perhaps 50% of the 2020 Absentee / Provisional Ballots came from these same (19) precincts, where after all there were 7.9k fewer voters between '16 and '20.

Now what about those precincts in Mobile County where there was a +10% increase in Total Vote between 2016 and 2020?



These appear to be overwhelmingly Republican (Rural Precincts)....

Interestingly enough we have (3) precincts which stand out a bit, since not only was there a significant increase in Early Vote / Election Day Votes (vs Absentee), where there also simultaneously a major 2016 > 2020 DEM PRES Swing



Precinct #44: Phillips Prep School / New Shiloh Missionary----



IDK, Census Tracts around Carleen & Hannon Park to to be some College Educated, White Joints, plus a bit Millennial, with an MHI of $62k places well...

Precinct #62: Cottage Hill Baptist Church----



Not an expert on the Neighborhood, but looking like somewhere around Skyland Park and Airmont, neighborhood precincts.

Maybe my old Man eyes are off a bit, but looks to be something like an 80% Anglo Precinct, with a relatively decent MHI, seem to forget the age brackets and educational attainment levels appear to be younger and higher, respectively speaking.

Precinct # 79: Magnolia Springs Church (Formerly CALLAHAN BOYS & GIRLS #1 & 2)



The precinct isn't even located within the City of Mobile, but rather, within a relatively small known community called Theodore, Alabama.

Interestingly enough, looks like Anglo Seniors on fixed incomes, most likely accounted for the +10.5% Biden Swing between '16 and '20...

[NOVA Green]

Using following link, anyone able to calculate Huntsville vs. rest of Madison County; Montgomery rest of Montgomery County and Mobile vs. rest of Mobile Count

https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-data

Montgomery County, Alabama:

This County suffers from some of the same issues as Mobile County, AL when attempting to break down votes by Municipality:

1.) There are a decent number of split precincts, making coding a bit more difficult.

2.) A significantly larger number of Absentee / Provisional Ballots than in 2016 (Which are not assigned to a precinct location).

That being said, here are the best numbers for 2020 I could come up with considering the limitations, anybody please feel free to inquire as to how I coded the various precincts in case I missed something large on the splits.

2020 Montgomery County- GE PRES:

Montgomery City--- 56.8% of 2020 County Vote Share:

Biden:         37,324    (66.3%)         +34.2% Biden       (+2.1% Trump Swing)         
Trump:        18,091    (32.1%)
Misc:                867    ( 1.5%)       
Total:          56,282                          -21.7% Less Voters 2016 > 2020

Montgomery County---- 18.3% of 2020 County Vote Share  :

Biden:           7,286    (40.2%)        +18.2% Trump         (+9.7% Trump Swing)     
Trump:        10,589    (58.4%)
Misc:                242    ( 1.3%)       
Total:          18,117                          -8.0% Less Voters 2016 > 2020

Montgomery--- Absentee & Provisionals---  25.0% of 2020 County Vote Share:

Biden:         19,919    (80.5%)           +61.8% Biden   (+51.6% DEM Swing)         
Trump:         4,631     (18.7%)
Misc:               190    ( 0.8%)       
Total:          24,740                           +475.9% Increase in TV 2016 > 2020                           

2016 Montgomery County- GE PRES:

Montgomery City----  (75.0% of 2016 County Vote Share):

HRC:           47,895    (66.6%)         +36.3% HRC           
Trump:        21,748    (30.3%)
Misc:             2,242    ( 3.1%)       
Total:          71,885

Montgomery County--- (20.5% of 2016 County Vote Share):

HRC:             8,715    (44.2%)         +8.5% Trump         
Trump:        10,388    (52.7%)
Misc:               594     ( 3.0%)       
Total:          19,697

Montgomery--- Absentee & Provisionals--- (2016- 4.5% of County Vote Share:

HRC:             2,306    (53.7%)         +10.2% HRC       
Trump:          1,867    (43.5%)
Misc:               123     ( 2.9%)       
Total:            4,296


What to make of all this?

Okay--- let's do a bit of basic math to try to guesstimate rough numbers for City / Non-City using 2016 GE PRES as a baseline.

1.) So let's say Montgomery, Alabama is 75% of the 2020 GE PRES County Vote Share (keeping the 4% Absentee / Provisional aside from both categories) = 74,354 TVs.

2.) If we subtract the 56,282 City Voters, we have about 18,072 votes to maintain the City Vote Share....

Biden= + 14,548
Trump=  +3,379

3.) This would work out to something like the following for 2020:

Biden:  51,872    (69.8%)       +40.9% Biden    (+4.6% Biden Swing).
Trump: 21,470    (28.9%)
TOT:    74,354

4.) Note this might well actually be a bit of an understatement, since I am equally dividing the provisional and outstanding ballots (excepting the 4%) between the City of Montgomery and Rural and Non-City majority precincts.

5.) Regardless it appears that Montgomery, Alabama swung Democratic by significant margins between 2016 and 2020.

6.) Now we have to ask the question is to what extent and where are these alleged swings among African-American Voters occurring, since at least looking at Mobile and Montgomery, Alabama 2020, there does not appear to be a compelling body of evidence to support this argument?

7.) It does appear that there were some significant swings between 2016 and 2020 in some Anglo and relatively educated precincts in both Mobile and Montgomery.

8.) Montgomery, Alabama actually jumped out while I was trolling for precincts in terms of the sheer number and geographical dispersion of Higher Educational Facilities.

Montgomery also has a decent sized Auto Sector, home to the 1st Hyundai Plant in North America with roughly 3k direct employees:

https://www.hmmausa.com/

9.) It does appear that the influence of the Auto Sector in places like Huntsville, Tuscaloosa County, and Montgomery as well be playing a role in gradually shifting certain communities in a Democratic direction over time.

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to try the decently sized cities in Pulaski County?

Little Rock
North Little Rock
Jacksonville
Maumelle
Sherwood

Or the city of Conway?

[Sailor Haumea]

I talked with a resident of Oxford, MS on Twitter and the county precincts are such a mess that it's impossible to get precise numbers. The precincts primarily in the city voted 2,499 to 2,300 for Biden, but that excludes the precinct that includes the historical district...but also a lot of rural territory. Including that brings you up to 4,895 to 4,832 in favor of Biden. The precincts are so badly drawn that I think it's best to just say that Biden DID win the city, but it's impossible to get exact numbers.