Cities vs. rest of county

[NOVA Green]

Here's another take at Jefferson County Alabama--- compare / contrast swings and Total Votes between 2016 and 2020 US PRES GE results:

Mountain Brook numbers look odd....

Yeah thats definitely an error for Mountain Brook

That was my initial thought because of the potentially counter-intuitive numbers.... but I went back and reviewed the '16 and '20 precinct numbers....

So here are the 2020 GE PRES Precinct results for Mountain Brook:



So here are the 2016 GE PRES precinct results for Mountain Brook:



I'm actually wondering if maybe the COVID-19 impact had folks in one of the wealthiest and most educated places in Alabama leave to 2nd homes away from Metro areas where they could work remotely....

Sure, not all wealthy Burb 2016 > 2020 swings are created equal, but the decrease in Total RAW GE PRES Votes stands out considerably in a higher than average TO election, even in Alabama...

Unless there is a County transcription error between these two elections, there aren't any suspiciously strange shifts in TV numbers between '16 and '20, plus it's not like Jefferson County has a bank of "Unassigned Absentee Voters"....

Maybe the 2020 "Provisional Voters" on the official report are all from Mountain Brook?

Doubtful, but....

[mileslunn]

For Mountain Brook why error, shift reasonable and its 97% white so being in South obviously going to go heavily for Trump as unlike North where you have educational divide amongst whites, in South Trump won both college and non-college educated whites, just won latter by bigger margins.  Also quite affluent so you would expect it to not vote as heavily Trump as white working class areas would.  Considering exit polls show Trump getting close to 80% of the white vote in Alabama, around 70% seems reasonable as more college educated here.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Polk County, Iowa

Des Moines:

Biden: 64,531 (66.5%)
Trump: 30,328 (31.3%)
Total: 97,065

Rest of Polk County:

Biden: 81,719 (50.5%)
Trump: 76,472 (47.3%)

Not surprisingly Trump won big in rural portions.  Suburban generally favored Biden but were usually close and those bordering the city more favorable to him than those a bit further out.

[sguberman]

So far which City has the biggest divide between it and the suburbs and which city has the smallest gap.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Here's another take at Jefferson County Alabama--- compare / contrast swings and Total Votes between 2016 and 2020 US PRES GE results:

Mountain Brook numbers look odd....

Are those numbers for Hoover just the Jefferson County side, or do they include Shelby County Hoover as well?  Vestavia Hills is also very similar to Mountain Brook, and it also swung Republican.  Hoover, on the other hand, is more of an upper-middle class (but less ultra-wealthy) community.  It seems to be showing swings more inline with other well-off Southern suburban areas.  I haven't looked at Belle Meade, TN yet, but I wonder if it also didn't swing left (it might be hard to get this because Davidson County doesn't allocate mail-in votes by precinct).  Maybe it's a case of the super wealthy in the South not budging, whereas the upper-middle class, growing suburbs did bleed a little support?

[forsythvoter]

It's interesting Shelby County swung left by 9%, but Vestavia Hills swung rightward. What are the types of suburbs like in Shelby? I was under the impression that they were more similar to Vestavia Hills, albeit not as affluent as Mountain Brook.

[mileslunn]

So far which City has the biggest divide between it and the suburbs and which city has the smallest gap.

Las Vegas and El Paso are pretty much identical.  Los Angeles is surprisingly small too but many suburbs are overwhelmingly non-white and few heavily white tend to be your wealthy liberal types like Malibu.  For biggest Shelby County, Tennessee and Jefferson County, Alabama are pretty big.  Generally Deep south where things are more racially polarized is where you see big divides.  If you include smaller cities then you also see large divides as in those cases remained of county is largely rural rather than suburban.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

LA County but only enight final results (missing about 1.2 million counted after eday)

LA

Biden 77.3%
Trump 20.9%

Rest of LA County

Biden 68.1%
Trump 30.0%

Los Angeles is surprisingly small too but many suburbs are overwhelmingly non-white and few heavily white tend to be your wealthy liberal types like Malibu.

Los Angeles proper is also very spread-out. A large portion of the city proper is in the San Fernando Valley. I’m curious what the numbers are for specific LA County suburbs like Pasadena, Glendale, Inglewood, Torrance, Long Beach, Pomona, etc. I heard some parts of Beverly Hills (rich white suburb) actually went for 45.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It's interesting Shelby County swung left by 9%, but Vestavia Hills swung rightward. What are the types of suburbs like in Shelby? I was under the impression that they were more similar to Vestavia Hills, albeit not as affluent as Mountain Brook.

My understanding is that Vestavia Hills is a little more upscale than most of Shelby County's suburbs.  Shelby County is the richest county in Alabama, but the most wealthy parts of Birmingham are in Jefferson County.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Onondaga County, New York

Syracuse:

Biden: 36,727 (76.5%)
Trump: 9,894 (20.6%)
Total: 48,038

Rest of Onondaga County

Biden: 102,264 (53.9%)
Trump: 81,821 (43.1%)
Total: 189,698

Trump won Cicero, Elbridge, Fabius, and Otisco.  Cicero somewhat suburban but on very edge while other three largely rural so more exurban.  Ironically Biden won a number of largely rural towns such as Pompey, Spafford, and Tully.  Onondaga County suburbs are asides Geddes, Salina, and Dewitt pretty low density and include lots of countryside surrounding subdivisions so areas you would think would be more favorable to Trump, but interestingly enough were not.  And also very white, usually over 95% white.  But perhaps with large university, maybe lots of people connected with that live there thus more liberal.

[NOVA Green]

Here's another take at Jefferson County Alabama--- compare / contrast swings and Total Votes between 2016 and 2020 US PRES GE results:

Mountain Brook numbers look odd....

Are those numbers for Hoover just the Jefferson County side, or do they include Shelby County Hoover as well?  Vestavia Hills is also very similar to Mountain Brook, and it also swung Republican.  Hoover, on the other hand, is more of an upper-middle class (but less ultra-wealthy) community.  It seems to be showing swings more inline with other well-off Southern suburban areas.  I haven't looked at Belle Meade, TN yet, but I wonder if it also didn't swing left (it might be hard to get this because Davidson County doesn't allocate mail-in votes by precinct).  Maybe it's a case of the super wealthy in the South not budging, whereas the upper-middle class, growing suburbs did bleed a little support?

Precinct results by Municipality are Jefferson County Precincts only...

Despite my interest in Alabama Election results, was simply sharing results by a particular county as requested...

Believe I could grab Shelby County precinct results if requested, since I believed I ran some precinct numbers back in the Doug Jones AL-SEN SE days.

*** Mind throb *** might need to check out '12 / '16 precinct numbers if necessary.

Give me a day or more and will likely locate, plus bonus points from 2017 AL-SEN-SE, and even possibly 2020 GE-AL-SEN.
)
No guarantees, no promises, and anybody else want to beat me to the punch... props, work a job, gotta wife only so many times in my hands in this brief existence we call Life, but HELL YES (Insert obligatory Rebel Yell Song), precinct results from Shelby County should be extremely interesting...

[NOVA Green]

Wichita Kansas confirmed for Trump:



Here are the 2008 to 2020 numbers for the City GE PRES:



Here's the cross-post on largest Trump City thread:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411611.msg7828145#msg7828145

[NOVA Green]

There were only (13) / (156) precincts in Wichita which swung towards Trump:

Note: There are an additional (7) / (156) precincts which did not exist in the 2016 GE Election.



Of these (13) precincts, most are pretty small by Wichita precinct standards.

Precincts 113 and 114 stand out because of the size of the swings, and precinct 119 because of the number of total voters.

Note these are all overwhelmingly Democratic precincts...

These (3) precincts appear to overlap with Census Tract areas with a higher % of African-Americans than most parts of Wichita, but it is important to note that you have neighboring precincts which also appear to have a high population of Black Americans, which did not swing towards Trump, but instead had narrow Biden swings (Which makes sense for example if you are banking 91-92% of the vote (precincts 116 & 117 for example).

I haven't really taken a deep look at more heavily Latino precincts in Wichita, but in short they did not jump out on the list of "Trump Precinct Swings".

Overall it does not appear that there was any movement towards Trump in Black and Latino precincts in Wichita in 2020, and just like other precincts there was a significant increase in Total PRES votes between '16 and '20

[mileslunn]

Here is for Allegheny County.

Pittsburgh:

Biden: 125,398 (77.6%)
Trump: 33,831 (20.8%)
Total: 162,298

Rest of Allegheny County:

Biden: 304,821 (54.2%)
Trump: 249,082 (44.3%)
Total: 562,505

Biden won most of the Boroughs while most Townships went for Trump, although in the northern parts which traditionally go GOP, Biden made strong gains.

[mileslunn]

In Allegheny County, the following municipalities flipped:

Trump to Biden: Aleppo Township, Bradford Woods (Romney got 64% here so big swing), Bridgeville, Franklin Park (Romney got 63%), Haysville (only has 70 people though), Marshall Township (Romney got 65%, Trump won by 12 points in 2016 so big swing), McCandless Township, Ohio Township, Ross Township, Upper St. Clair Township (Romney got 62% here)



Unlike rest of Southwest Pennsylvania, seems Allegheny county suburbs on balance swung towards Biden and outperformed Obama in 2012.  Considering Pittsburgh has lots of universities and colleges, I believe Allegheny County nowadays is more white collar unlike neighboring counties are more blue collar thus different direction of swing.

There were no Clinton to Trump flips while all Obama 2012 - Trump 2016 stayed with Trump 2020 although a few tightened but none flipped.  All Romney-Clinton stayed Biden and in fact in most of those Trump fell below 40%.

[Badger]

In Allegheny County, the following municipalities flipped:

Trump to Biden: Aleppo Township, Bradford Woods (Romney got 64% here so big swing), Bridgeville, Franklin Park (Romney got 63%), Haysville (only has 70 people though), Marshall Township (Romney got 65%, Trump won by 12 points in 2016 so big swing), McCandless Township, Ohio Township, Ross Township, Upper St. Clair Township (Romney got 62% here)



Unlike rest of Southwest Pennsylvania, seems Allegheny county suburbs on balance swung towards Biden and outperformed Obama in 2012.  Considering Pittsburgh has lots of universities and colleges, I believe Allegheny County nowadays is more white collar unlike neighboring counties are more blue collar thus different direction of swing.

There were no Clinton to Trump flips while all Obama 2012 - Trump 2016 stayed with Trump 2020 although a few tightened but none flipped.  All Romney-Clinton stayed Biden and in fact in most of those Trump fell below 40%.

I was raised on the border of two of those huge swing townships in the North Hills. If you had told my teenage political nerd self that and election would occur with least townships and boroughs voted Democratic, while places like dravosburg, Glassport, Port Vue, and Neville Island voted Republican, I would have looked at you with jaw-dropping incomprehension.

Hell, I would have had that same reaction his recent is 2000 or 2004. The traditional Republican pedigree of these upper-middle-class communities cannot be understated.

[NOVA Green]

Here's another take at Jefferson County Alabama--- compare / contrast swings and Total Votes between 2016 and 2020 US PRES GE results:

Mountain Brook numbers look odd....

Are those numbers for Hoover just the Jefferson County side, or do they include Shelby County Hoover as well?  Vestavia Hills is also very similar to Mountain Brook, and it also swung Republican.  Hoover, on the other hand, is more of an upper-middle class (but less ultra-wealthy) community.  It seems to be showing swings more inline with other well-off Southern suburban areas.  I haven't looked at Belle Meade, TN yet, but I wonder if it also didn't swing left (it might be hard to get this because Davidson County doesn't allocate mail-in votes by precinct).  Maybe it's a case of the super wealthy in the South not budging, whereas the upper-middle class, growing suburbs did bleed a little support?

Hi Extreme Republican and apologies for my delayed response.

These numbers are Jefferson County precincts only.

I do have Shelby County precincts (Although I have not coded them by Municipality in the '16 GE, '17 AL-SEN-SE, nor the '20 GE).

Shelby County unfortunately bundles absentees into one bucket (Unlike Jefferson County), making precinct level returns sketch in the extreme....

If you want I can try to code the '16 and '20 GE PRES results for Shelby County by Municipality, but it is almost like a question I asked elsewhere RE:2020 GE results about trying to code Maine GE results "By Precinct /Ward" for the handful of larger Cities in that State....

Let me know, and will take a look if you are interested.

Unfortunately, Shelby County does one of my pet peeves when it comes to Election Reporting for many Counties throughout the US, and not redistributing votes back to the precinct level.   

[SingingAnalyst]

None of the Metro Detroit results should surprise anyone.
Detroit: Total vote 250,219, Biden 93.48%, Trump 5.06%
Rest of Wayne Co: Total vote 623,799, Biden 58.23%, Trump 40.38%
Within Wayne County, Livonia, once a virtually all-white suburb (it voted 67.6% for Bush in 1988), is now quite diverse and voted 50-48 for Biden. Downscale Garden City, once working-class "heaven" (it voted 54.7% for Bush in 1988) was a Trump enclave: it voted 52-46 for Trump while all surrounding communities voted for Biden.

In Oakland County, Lathrup Village, once a GOP enclave surrounded by Southfield, went nearly as strongly for Biden (86.3%) as did Southfield (86.9%). Huntington Woods, a left-leaning, liberal Woodwardside community with only a small minority population, voted 81.8% for Biden, marginally more than neighboring Oak Park, heavily Jewish in the 1950s and now home to many Blacks and Middle Easterners as well as Jews; I suspect the large concentration of Orthodox and Hasidic Jews pulled Biden's vote share down in OP slightly. Funky, gay-friendly Ferndale voted marginally less for Biden than either HW or OP, but still gave him 78.8% against Trump's 19.2%. The formerly GOP enclave of Farmington gave Biden a higher vote share than decidedly downscale Hazel Park, which borders 8 Mile Road and Detroit, as did trendy Royal Oak. Bloomfield Hills went Democratic for the first time since becoming a city in 1932, as did Troy and Rochester Hills. Even Rochester proper, currently an upscale white-flight haven, voted narrowly for Biden. Waterford Township, however, stayed with Trump, as did northern and far-western Oakland County.

In Macomb, which Trump carried 53.3-45.4, Eastpointe, with its large and growing Black population, voted 3-1 for Biden; communities S of M-59 split about evenly, while north of M-59 it was all Trump.

In Washtenaw County (Biden's best county in MI), highly-educated Ann Arbor gave Biden 87.4%, marginally more than neighboring Ypsilanti (86.2%), which is much more downscale and heavily minority. The balance of Washtenaw went 64-34 Biden.

[mileslunn]

Sacramento county below.  Citrus Heights was only incorporated municipality Trump won, so any idea why he won that?

Sacramento:

Biden 75.09%
Trump: 22.44%

rest of Sacramento County:

Biden: 55.1%
Trump: 42.33%

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Sacramento county below.  Citrus Heights was only incorporated municipality Trump won, so any idea why he won that?

Sacramento:

Biden 75.09%
Trump: 22.44%

rest of Sacramento County:

Biden: 55.1%
Trump: 42.33%

Citrus Heights and Orangevale (unincorporated area between Citrus Heights and Folsom) are definitely poorer, less educated, etc. compared to Folsom or Elk Grove.

[SDdem]

Trump improved in Chicago by about 3% made big gains in NW Rosemont (Where all the cops live) and also a lot of hispanic majority wards

[mileslunn]

Before was approximate but here is final exact numbers for Cook County

Chicago:

Biden: 944,735 (82.53%)
Trump: 181,234 (15.83%)
Total: 1,144,741

Rest of Cook County

Biden: 781,238 (66.39%)
Trump: 377,035 (32.04%)
Total: 1,176,658

Trump won Lemont Township, Norwood Park Township, Orland Township, and Palos Township,

[mileslunn]

Got exact numbers for Mecklenburg County, see below.

Charlotte:

Biden: 285,279 (70.23%)
Trump: 114,190 (28.11%)
Total: 406,216

Rest of Mecklenburg County

Biden: 92,828 (57.72%)
Trump: 65,021 (40.43%)
Total: 160,834

So looks like Biden won rest of county.  Before wasn't able to separate by early and election day but this is what I got.  Northwestern part and very Eastern part Trump won, still don't have exact by municipality yet but areas he won fairly white and suburban.

[mileslunn]

Here is Utah County.  Biden only won one precinct as very Mormon so quite conservative, but an unusually high number of write-ins which makes sense as too conservative to consider voting Democrat, but also many Mormons dislike Trump.  Evan McMullin in 2016 won several precincts in this county.

Provo

Trump: 22,086 (54.5%)
Biden: 14,787 (36.5%)
Total: 40,539

Rest of Utah County

Trump: 170,276 (68.1%)
Biden: 61,246 (24.4%)
Total: 250,620

[mileslunn]

Here is Spokane county

Spokane:

Biden: 66,917 (56.3%)
Trump: 47,147 (39.7%)
Total: 118,829

rest of Spokane County

Trump: 101,429 (57.4%)
Biden: 68,848 (39%)
Total: 176,601

Trump won Spokane Valley by 18 points and also dominated other suburbs and rural areas.  City itself was surprisingly strong for Biden as thought it would be much closer although knew Biden won it.