How big will Nicole Galloway Lose by in 2022?

[jamestroll]

Ill go with option 4. Unless Saundra McDowell is nominated.

State Auditor of Missouri up for re-election.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think she'll win.

[Bootes Void]

Less than 10% give or take

[free my dawg]

Closer to 10% than 5%. I'll go with 8.6 for now.

[Suburbia]

Galloway will win reelection in 2022

Nikki Fried and Nicole Galloway will win their races respectively.

[Hope For A New Era]

Isn't she term-limited now because of the new ballot measure?

I guarantee that was targeted at her.


Edit: Just realized this was my 2000th post. Oh well, lol.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Isn't she term-limited now because of the new ballot measure?

That failed.

[Hope For A New Era]

Isn't she term-limited now because of the new ballot measure?

That failed.

Wait, what? How did that fail? I mean, I'm glad it did, but wow. I did not see that coming.

I think it's too early to know. 2022 will lack the Trumpist turnout surge, but the national environment will probably be more R than 2018.

There is a winning D coalition in Missouri under the current alignment. It consists of winning ALL the suburbs (Springfield is the real key), pulling back WWC areas (Buchanan + the Leadbelt), and cutting rural margins as much as possible (particularly along the river).

So far, she is the only person who has ever been able to hold this coalition together long enough to win. Kander came close in 2016, but fell short in suburbs, particularly Springfield.

This is very similar to this year's Yes on Medicaid expansion coalition, so it seems that it is not a 2018 fluke and can be replicated.

If she can match her 2018 performance, she can in theory withstand a national environment as low as D+2. Beyond that, it'll mostly depend on her opponent, I think. She could probably beat McDowell again, but I'm not sure who else would be that weak, or who else would even run.


I have to wonder if she might be better off running for Senate though? It'll depend on the national environment, but if Ds don't win it this year, a heavily populist campaign against a "do-nothing Senate" could be pretty interesting, especially against as weak and "do-nothing" of an opponent as Roy Blunt.

[Frenchrepublican]

One third of respondents think she will prevail ?! Probably the same people who believed that she would win the Gov race.

[jamestroll]

One third of respondents think she will prevail ?! Probably the same people who believed that she would win the Gov race.

Of course she could prevail. Would not be the first or last time a down ballot incumbent has failed big at a higher office and goes on to win reelection in their down ballot post.

There is a history of that in Missouri with Margaret Kelly who was a GOP Auditor when Missouri was dominated by Democrats.

But Galloway has a very uphill hail mary climb in 2022.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably low double digits. Her running for Governor will probably hurt her.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Double digits

[Tartarus Sauce]

I've been wondering if there's a chance she might step down to run for state senate district 19 rather than face reelection in 2022. SD 19 encompasses Boone and Cooper counties, and I imagine that after redistricting it will just be coterminous with Boone County since population growth will allow for the excision of heavily Republican Cooper County.

SD 19 is currently represented by Republican Caleb Rowden, the state senate majority leader. Boone County is trending left too quickly for somebody overseeing and shepherding legislation passed by the very right wing state legislature to survive for much longer. Galloway has local roots in the area, having been Boone County treasurer for 4 years before being appointed state auditor. If she aggressively went for the seat, she could probably sink Caleb and gain a safe office, almost certainly an easier task than being put up for a statewide referendum again.

[MarkD]

I've been wondering if there's a chance she might step down to run for state senate district 19 rather than face reelection in 2022. SD 19 encompasses Boone and Cooper counties, and I imagine that after redistricting it will just be coterminous with Boone County since population growth will allow for the excision of heavily Republican Cooper County.

SD 19 is currently represented by Republican Caleb Rowden, the state senate majority leader. Boone County is trending left too quickly for somebody overseeing and shepherding legislation passed by the very right wing state legislature to survive for much longer. Galloway has local roots in the area, having been Boone County treasurer for 4 years before being appointed state auditor. If she aggressively went for the seat, she could probably sink Caleb and gain a safe office, almost certainly an easier task than being put up for a statewide referendum again.

I agree with some of the things you've said, but disagree about some of the rest.

Yes, redistricting is going to take out Cooper County and confine the boundaries of SD 19 to just Boone County by itself, and that change is going to significantly increase the chance of a Democrat getting elected in the next election. But FYI, that next election is not going to be until 2024, whereas Galloway's current term as Auditor ends at the end of 2022. If she chooses not to seek re-election as Auditor, and to run for SD 19 at the next opportunity, she will be twiddling her thumbs for two years in between the two respective elections.

Caleb Rowden is term limited in 2024, so he won't be running for re-election. I imagine state rep. Cheri Toalson Reisch will probably run for the Republicans that year. And if Galloway does try to run for SD19, she might have to compete in the primary with another Democrat or two who might also be interested in running, such as state rep. Martha Stevens, who will also be term limited and ineligible to run for re-election (to the House) in 2024.

To answer the question in the thread, it depends on the caliber of the Republican nominee, so I can't hazard a guess at this time.

[Hope For A New Era]

And if Galloway does try to run for SD19, she might have to compete in the primary with another Democrat or two who might also be interested in running, such as state rep. Martha Stevens, who will also be term limited and ineligible to run for re-election (to the House) in 2024.

Will not be an issue. Galloway will sweep any primary in the state.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I've been wondering if there's a chance she might step down to run for state senate district 19 rather than face reelection in 2022. SD 19 encompasses Boone and Cooper counties, and I imagine that after redistricting it will just be coterminous with Boone County since population growth will allow for the excision of heavily Republican Cooper County.

SD 19 is currently represented by Republican Caleb Rowden, the state senate majority leader. Boone County is trending left too quickly for somebody overseeing and shepherding legislation passed by the very right wing state legislature to survive for much longer. Galloway has local roots in the area, having been Boone County treasurer for 4 years before being appointed state auditor. If she aggressively went for the seat, she could probably sink Caleb and gain a safe office, almost certainly an easier task than being put up for a statewide referendum again.

I agree with some of the things you've said, but disagree about some of the rest.

Yes, redistricting is going to take out Cooper County and confine the boundaries of SD 19 to just Boone County by itself, and that change is going to significantly increase the chance of a Democrat getting elected in the next election. But FYI, that next election is not going to be until 2024, whereas Galloway's current term as Auditor ends at the end of 2022. If she chooses not to seek re-election as Auditor, and to run for SD 19 at the next opportunity, she will be twiddling her thumbs for two years in between the two respective elections.

Caleb Rowden is term limited in 2024, so he won't be running for re-election. I imagine state rep. Cheri Toalson Reisch will probably run for the Republicans that year. And if Galloway does try to run for SD19, she might have to compete in the primary with another Democrat or two who might also be interested in running, such as state rep. Martha Stevens, who will also be term limited and ineligible to run for re-election (to the House) in 2024.

To answer the question in the thread, it depends on the caliber of the Republican nominee, so I can't hazard a guess at this time.

Good points, I forgot that the Missouri senate seats were staggered and term-limited.

So Galloway has nothing to lose by running for Auditor again. If she fails to secure another term, she could always wait until 2024 to run for a state legislature position in Boone County if she wants to keep a political profile going. 

[MoreThanPolitics]

If McDonnell is the R nominee: Loses by 9-10 points

Any other R nominee: Loses by 14-15 points

[Chips]

3-5 points somewhere in that ballpark.

[Calthrina950]

I don't think Galloway will lose by as much as she did in the gubernatorial election last year, but she is definitely the underdog at this point. I think it's plausible that she loses by around the same margin that Claire McCaskill did in 2018, ~6% or so. And that's because she is the incumbent and its a lower-level office. Galloway will probably only win reelection if faced with a Todd Akin or Roy Moore-tier opponent, and even that may not be enough anymore.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

She'll get blanched.