Looks like it wasn't just military voters that the Trump campaign took for granted:
How Biden swung the religious voteTrump’s team thought religious-minded voters would save him in key states. They now appear to have turned away just enough for him to lose.For months, President Donald Trump’s top aides and religious allies dismissed his softening support with white evangelicals and Catholic voters as a polling fluke — another media-spun narrative intended to frighten the incumbent Republican and his top donors. No president had ever done more for these demographics, they claimed, pointing to the unfettered access many conservative Christian groups had to the Trump administration and the influence they wielded over policy priorities and judicial nominees.
“You can look at the polls but at the end of the day, the president will perform very well with Catholic voters because he has delivered for them in so many ways,” senior Trump campaign adviser Mercedes Schlapp, a Catholic herself, said in an interview just days before the election.
In the end, surveys of early voters and exit polls showed they may have been the difference in his loss.
Between 47 percent and 50 percent of Catholic voters supported Trump — a small decline from 2016, but enough to cost him the Rust Belt states that mattered most to his path to victory. Nationally, the president carried white Catholics by a 15-point margin, according to AP/VoteCast data, marking a significant decline from his 33-point margin of victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
Trump’s slippage with white evangelicals was less pronounced — surveys showed him carrying 76 percent to 78 percent of the white, born-again Christian vote — a slight decrease from 2016, when he won support from about 8 in 10 white evangelicals. But it had far-reaching implications for the president in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia, where current vote totals show him losing by less than 1 percent.
