2020: If Barack Obama could have run again

[President Johnson]

Now that we know the 2020 result, what do you guys think how the election would have turned out if Barack Obama was eligible to run again? Say the 22nd Amendment only prohibits a consecutive third term. I think he would have won at least North Carolina in addition, but I'm not sure about Florida. I doubt he would have carried Ohio or Iowa, despite winning them twice before.

[Left Wing]

Trump doesn't make his gains with minorities but Obama isn't able to gain as many white voters as Biden so doesn't win Iowa.

[Alben Barkley]

Trump doesn't make his gains with minorities but Obama isn't able to gain as many white voters as Biden so doesn't win Iowa.

Probably about right.

I'm not sure he wins Ohio or Texas though.

[McGarnagle]

[NewYorkExpress]

Obama loses white voters by an almost 3-1 margin and is only able to win the White House by narrowly winning Michigan.

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 49% 266 EV
Barack Obama/Gretchen Whitmer 47% 272 EV

[Left Wing]

Obama loses white voters by an almost 3-1 margin and is only able to win the White House by narrowly winning Michigan.

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 49% 266 EV
Barack Obama/Gretchen Whitmer 47% 272 EV

?

Obama got 43% and 39% of white voters in 2008 and 2012 respectively.

[Alben Barkley]

Obama loses white voters by an almost 3-1 margin and is only able to win the White House by narrowly winning Michigan.

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 49% 266 EV
Barack Obama/Gretchen Whitmer 47% 272 EV

.............What???

I'm sorry man but some of your maps just make absolutely no sense to me, and this one is probably the worst. Why would Obama suddenly do massively worse with white voters than he did before? You really think he wouldn't get the same kinds of gains from college educated whites/suburbanites that Biden got? These people largely love Obama now, and still would hate Trump. And how would he lose the popular vote?

[NewYorkExpress]

Obama loses white voters by an almost 3-1 margin and is only able to win the White House by narrowly winning Michigan.

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 49% 266 EV
Barack Obama/Gretchen Whitmer 47% 272 EV

.............What???

I'm sorry man but some of your maps just make absolutely no sense to me, and this one is probably the worst. Why would Obama suddenly do massively worse with white voters than he did before? You really think he wouldn't get the same kinds of gains from college educated whites/suburbanites that Biden got? These people largely love Obama now, and still would hate Trump. And how would he lose the popular vote?

Racism is a big reason why Trump won in 2016, and it would be a driving factor in 2020 too.

Biden might well have gotten those suburban voters precisely because he's a white straight male.

I can see Obama's approvals coming down dramatically if he reentered electoral politics.

That said, it is possible a third party gets some traction here, and scoops up about 5-7% of the vote.

[Hope For A New Era]

413 minus Texas.

[Left Wing]

Obama loses white voters by an almost 3-1 margin and is only able to win the White House by narrowly winning Michigan.

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 49% 266 EV
Barack Obama/Gretchen Whitmer 47% 272 EV

.............What???

I'm sorry man but some of your maps just make absolutely no sense to me, and this one is probably the worst. Why would Obama suddenly do massively worse with white voters than he did before? You really think he wouldn't get the same kinds of gains from college educated whites/suburbanites that Biden got? These people largely love Obama now, and still would hate Trump. And how would he lose the popular vote?

Racism is a big reason why Trump won in 2016, and it would be a driving factor in 2020 too.

Biden might well have gotten those suburban voters precisely because he's a white straight male.

I can see Obama's approvals coming down dramatically if he reentered electoral politics.

That said, it is possible a third party gets some traction here, and scoops up about 5-7% of the vote.

Sure racism might have played a part but Obama himself was broadly popular and the national environment is much more D friendly this year. There is absolutely no reason to think Obama's white vote share would go down, let alone by 14%! And Georgia voting to the left of ME-01 is ABSURD. Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, a much worse candidate in a much worse environment, him winning the popular vote against Obama in 2020 is impossible.

[bagelman]

Arguing about a map just distracts all the attention from other maps. Like mine:



EV wise it's pretty similar to OTL, 321-217 (or 322-216, I have no idea about ME-2 and left it blank). However the PV is much better for Obama. Trump wins almost all the close contests, only losing NC. It's a real tragic win for Democrats as OH/IA slip away, TX is ruined by the Rio Grande Valley, and worst of all FL is ruined by the Cubans in a margin similar to 2000. A lot more people were confident in the possibility of 413. However in the end Obama is victorious and Cunningham may narrowly defeat Tillis despite being a worthless little frat boy.