MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[Calthrina950]

If Lindell is the nominee, this race is Safe D. It's no worse than Likely D under any other matchup. Walz would beat Lindell by at least low to mid double digits, and would absolutely destroy him in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Moreover, I think the outcome of the Derek Chauvin trial will be of benefit to Walz and to Keith Ellison next year.

[Calthrina950]

If Lindell is the nominee, this race is Safe D. It's no worse than Likely D under any other matchup. Walz would beat Lindell by at least low to mid double digits, and would absolutely destroy him in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Moreover, I think the outcome of the Derek Chauvin trial will be of benefit to Walz and to Keith Ellison next year.

I don't think Lindell would do that much worse than a generic R. How many people would vote for a generic R, but not Lindell?

I could see Generic R lose by high single digits, while Lindell would lose by low to mid double digits.

[Calthrina950]

I think he would do worse than Trump, but still manage to get at least 40% of the vote. The number of actual GOP voters who left the party post-1/6 are a lot smaller than the media makes it out to be and even most of those who opposed the attack are probably not going to vote for the Dems, although Lindell's defense of the attack would hurt him with moderate/establishment GOP voters. While not related, an actual Nazi managed to get a 1/4 of the vote in a D+6 district and Minnesota is more Republican than that district. I'm not calling Lindell a Nazi at all, but he would probably do better than most Democrats would hope, but I cannot see a chance for him to win, especially with Minneapolis.  I'd say his ceiling as of now would be around 42% where things stand now, although he could get in the mid 40's if Biden & The Dems are extremely unpopular. In a great year for Dems which seems unlikely but possible, I see him still getting at least in the mid 30's in terms of voter percentage.

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/StarTribune/status/1504479907836882951
This is a pretty great win-win move by Walz. (For the record he's calling for $500 checks to single filers and $1000 to married couples.) It'd require legislative approval, but that means either the Republicans in the Senate oppose it and give him yet another wedge issue (in addition to already existing ones like marijuana legalization) or they pass it and give him a victory and popular policy in the run-up to the election.

As an outsider, Waltz's optics seem pretty good compared to a lot of other govs on both sides facing tough re-elections. He comes across as someone trying to do good for his people and less into the political football

Walz is really good at the "every man" sort of image, mostly because in his case it's actually true, before he entered politics he was a high school geography teacher and football coach in southern Minnesota. It's no accident that he never faced any serious opposition while in Congress from a swing district that on paper was probably Tilt R (aside from his surprise almost defeat in 2016, but even that was impressive in that he outran Hillary more than almost any other Democrat in the country aside from literally unopposed ones.)

What rating would you give the race, as of right now? Walz seems to be favored to me, but he could be held to an underwhelming margin because of the political environment.

[Calthrina950]

I don't think the MN GOP have reached FL-DEM or CO-GOP levels of stupidity and incompetence yet, but if this November goes at all like people think they are prime candidates.

CO GOP isn't that bad - O'Dea is much better than the likes of Masters, Walker, Oz or Vance. They've just kind of gotten screwed by educational polarization because the state is so college-educated.

If anything, I think the MI GOP should be the example of a horrifically incompetent state party.

O'Dea is probably one of the best Republican candidates running, and is a good fit for Colorado ideologically, but nevertheless, has no chance. Colorado is becoming unwinnable for Republicans very quickly, and I suspect Republicans will fail to win any of the statewide offices this year.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1576982887135584257

Heidi Ganahl has made a similar claim here in Colorado, referring to "furries" in our schools. She cited Arapahoe County as an example of this, although the school district there explicitly denied her claims.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1576982887135584257

Heidi Ganahl has made a similar claim here in Colorado, referring to "furries" in our schools. She cited Arapahoe County as an example of this, although the school district there explicitly denied her claims.

Anyone who actually attends or works at the schools/districts could tell you that it's a load of bull, but are Ganahl's/Jensen's bases careful enough to actually think about the absurdity of the claim and that there's no truth to it? Doesn't seem like that's the case.

I would concur. Lauren Boebert, moreover, has run an ad here talking about fighting "woke indoctrination" in schools and standing up for parental rights. There are legitimate issues with our education system that need to be addressed, and issues that I disagree with Democrats on. But Republicans certainly have made insinuations about that system which are not accurate.