MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The thing about Jensen ads too is that he needs to make them count because he's very low on money. After the primary and him and Walz officially became nominees Walz waived the state public funding program which would've given him $245k. Because of this Jensen actually gets his share meaning he gets $490k. Except Walz has over $5 million on hand and is raising well over that $245k a month. Jensen meanwhile can't raise any more money, so he's stuck with the $490k plus the $580k he had remaining at the primary. So he had barely over a million dollars and that was in mid-August. Walz has five times that and he can keep fundraising.

Obv Walz is safe but for some reason I have a gut feeling Simon is in danger, at least if we assume Ellison is losing. Thoughts?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The gaslighting about abortion is obvious crud to us, people who are informed politically. But I'm not convinced the voters are that smart. GOP is using a tactic here of "my opponent is desperately talking about x instead of more important issues". I'm not saying Jensen is favored but it might not be such a bad strategy.

The statement is correct. Minnesota did have a viability ban at one time, but it was struck down by the 8th circuit decades ago and the case has not been revisited post-dobbs. Until recently, there was a 24 hour waiting period, a limitation on who could perform late-term abortions, and a parental notification law, but those were struck down earlier this year in state court: https://lawyeringproject.org/our-work/doe-v-minnesota-minnesota/#:~:text=The%20court%20held%20that%20the,right%20to%20access%20abortion%20care.%E2%80%9D

So, the answer to the question: Can you get a 9th Month abortion in Minnesota? is YES., as there are no restrictions left. Finding a surgeon to perform one may be difficult, but the procedure CAN be done. And because it was done via courts, there is nothing a Governor or Legislature of either party could do about it, at least in the short term.

Now is this good strategy? Hard to know, it's untested. But Walz has a large lead which is likely unable to be erased at this late date.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The gaslighting about abortion is obvious crud to us, people who are informed politically. But I'm not convinced the voters are that smart. GOP is using a tactic here of "my opponent is desperately talking about x instead of more important issues". I'm not saying Jensen is favored but it might not be such a bad strategy.

The statement is correct. Minnesota did have a viability ban at one time, but it was struck down by the 8th circuit decades ago and the case has not been revisited post-dobbs. Until recently, there was a 24 hour waiting period, a limitation on who could perform late-term abortions, and a parental notification law, but those were struck down earlier this year in state court: https://lawyeringproject.org/our-work/doe-v-minnesota-minnesota/#:~:text=The%20court%20held%20that%20the,right%20to%20access%20abortion%20care.%E2%80%9D

So, the answer to the question: Can you get a 9th Month abortion in Minnesota? is YES., as there are no restrictions left. Finding a surgeon to perform one may be difficult, but the procedure CAN be done. And because it was done via courts, there is nothing a Governor or Legislature of either party could do about it, at least in the short term.

Now is this good strategy? Hard to know, it's untested. But Walz has a large lead which is likely unable to be erased at this late date.

Whether it's true or not is irrelevant. If Jensen turns this around(which I doubt) it will be because the voters pioritize other issues like crime/economy what have you and either A- Believe Jensen's baby ad or B- They don't believe him but they don't care about abortion compared to other issues.

As a resident, my sense is that YES, voters do understand that abortion is completely legal and protected here and at no short-term risk. That being said, Abortion is fairly popular here. So do voters trust that Jensen won't lay the groundwork to overturn abortion in the long-term (judicial appointments, maybe a ballot measure in 2023 or 2025 when no one cares enough to vote)? Not necessarily.

With respect to, do voters care about abortion more than other issues? So far I'm unconvinced. The economy   still polls far higher in terms of its level of importance in every poll in every state in the union. It's also not hard to go back through past cycles and find times where an overreliance on abortion turned voters off from candidates on both sides, and to find exit polls where the voters who do care about abortion were disproportionately voting for the GOP. But all this being said, Walz's lead is probably just too big to be changed.