MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[Senator Spark]

Mike aka Meme City 2022.

[Minnesota Mike]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

Klobuchar has a personal vote, there's a deep hatred for Walz in much of outstate. He's still overall popular and would easily crush Lindell, but not pull of those margins.

Also think Lindell would win the primary if he ran, which he won't now being deplatformed and suffering all these lawsuits. It's not like Scott Jensen is a particularly great candidate who would appeal to swing voters either.

[Minnesota Mike]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

Klobuchar has a personal vote, there's a deep hatred for Walz in much of outstate. He's still overall popular and would easily crush Lindell, but not pull of those margins.

Also think Lindell would win the primary if he ran, which he won't now being deplatformed and suffering all these lawsuits. It's not like Scott Jensen is a particularly great candidate who would appeal to swing voters either.

Paul Gazelka is odds on favorite to be the Republican nominee. Won't be much of a challenge for Walz but will do better than nuts like Lindell and Jensen.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

Klobuchar has a personal vote, there's a deep hatred for Walz in much of outstate. He's still overall popular and would easily crush Lindell, but not pull of those margins.

Also think Lindell would win the primary if he ran, which he won't now being deplatformed and suffering all these lawsuits. It's not like Scott Jensen is a particularly great candidate who would appeal to swing voters either.

Paul Gazelka is odds on favorite to be the Republican nominee. Won't be much of a challenge for Walz but will do better than nuts like Lindell and Jensen.

Is he running? Seems odd to give up his State Senate seat and leadership role for such a longshot. Unless he doesn't want to deal with the State Senate anymore.

[Minnesota Mike]

Is he running? Seems odd to give up his State Senate seat and leadership role for such a longshot. Unless he doesn't want to deal with the State Senate anymore.

As of a couple days ago he said on WCCO he was leaning towards running and from what I have heard (just internet gossip) he is almost certain to run.

[Telesquare]

https://twitter.com/toreyvanoot/status/1433071670420516864

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/toreyvanoot/status/1433071670420516864

She's a more bland and generic R type than Lindell or Scott Jensen but that's not really the sort of candidate the MNGOP needs either, it also describes Jeff Johnson and Karin Housley.

[Sir Mohamed]

According to Wikipedia, "My Pillow guy" is a declined candidate? Why is the dude discussed?

[neostassenite31]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

Klobuchar has a personal vote, there's a deep hatred for Walz in much of outstate. He's still overall popular and would easily crush Lindell, but not pull of those margins.

Also think Lindell would win the primary if he ran, which he won't now being deplatformed and suffering all these lawsuits. It's not like Scott Jensen is a particularly great candidate who would appeal to swing voters either.

Paul Gazelka is odds on favorite to be the Republican nominee. Won't be much of a challenge for Walz but will do better than nuts like Lindell and Jensen.

Is he running? Seems odd to give up his State Senate seat and leadership role for such a longshot. Unless he doesn't want to deal with the State Senate anymore.

It makes no sense for him to quit a relatively safe job for this gubernatorial bid, unless he did some private polling that show him to be at least relatively competitive with Walz. As his many deals with Walz and Hortman clearly show, Gazelka isn't reckless

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

Klobuchar has a personal vote, there's a deep hatred for Walz in much of outstate. He's still overall popular and would easily crush Lindell, but not pull of those margins.

Also think Lindell would win the primary if he ran, which he won't now being deplatformed and suffering all these lawsuits. It's not like Scott Jensen is a particularly great candidate who would appeal to swing voters either.

Paul Gazelka is odds on favorite to be the Republican nominee. Won't be much of a challenge for Walz but will do better than nuts like Lindell and Jensen.

Is he running? Seems odd to give up his State Senate seat and leadership role for such a longshot. Unless he doesn't want to deal with the State Senate anymore.

It makes no sense for him to quit a relatively safe job for this gubernatorial bid, unless he did some private polling that show him to be at least relatively competitive with Walz. As his many deals with Walz and Hortman clearly show, Gazelka isn't reckless

Well he actually just announced he's stepping down from his State Senate leadership role a few days ago. So whether he runs or not the most likely explanation is that he's tired of that role.

[neostassenite31]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

Klobuchar has a personal vote, there's a deep hatred for Walz in much of outstate. He's still overall popular and would easily crush Lindell, but not pull of those margins.

Also think Lindell would win the primary if he ran, which he won't now being deplatformed and suffering all these lawsuits. It's not like Scott Jensen is a particularly great candidate who would appeal to swing voters either.

Paul Gazelka is odds on favorite to be the Republican nominee. Won't be much of a challenge for Walz but will do better than nuts like Lindell and Jensen.

Is he running? Seems odd to give up his State Senate seat and leadership role for such a longshot. Unless he doesn't want to deal with the State Senate anymore.

It makes no sense for him to quit a relatively safe job for this gubernatorial bid, unless he did some private polling that show him to be at least relatively competitive with Walz. As his many deals with Walz and Hortman clearly show, Gazelka isn't reckless

Well he actually just announced he's stepping down from his State Senate leadership role a few days ago. So whether he runs or not the most likely explanation is that he's tired of that role.

The quasi-permanent state of divided government in this state could no doubt tire out any politco, although what I heard was that most of the state Senate GOP conference wanted him to step down if he intends to run for governor, since both the actual MAGA faction and moderates in his conference don't really like him and think it would be an unfair advantage for him to run while maintaining his position as majority leader

[Minnesota Mike]

With Benson in and Gazelka all but in the next shoe to drop is what does Sen Carla Nelson do. Nelson would be the most moderate Republican  running (not saying much) and would probably be the toughest GE opponent for Walz but I have a tough time seeing her winning a Republican primary.

[Minnesota Mike]

According to Wikipedia, "My Pillow guy" is a declined candidate? Why is the dude discussed?

Poorly titled thread has turned into a general MN Governor thread.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1435396582011252741

[Telesquare]

He has officially announced
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulgazelka/status/1435605820918620162

[neostassenite31]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

[BoiseBoy]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

I'd put more stock in this poll if Generic Republican was an actual candidate and we weren't still a year out from the election.

[neostassenite31]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

I'd put more stock in this poll if Generic Republican was an actual candidate and we weren't still a year out from the election.

Well, the poll also finds that fully 43% of Minnesotans think Trump actually won the 2020 election (this is coming from a Democratic polling outfit).

Walz's favorability is not just underwater, but almost 40% of voters in Hennepin and Ramsey County disapprove of him (which if translated into votes is essentially a Bush vs. Kerry 2004 level partisan breakdown). His disapproval in Greater Minnesota also stands at around 60%, which by how it's defined would mean he could perform worse than Hilary Clinton 2016 in rural MN.

Also, just look at Scott Jensen's approval rating: 49% approve with just 3%(!!!) disapprove?! Seriously, the DFL will have to do a MUCH, MUCH better job at defining this guy or else we could be staring down at a total nightmore next fall

[Minnesota Mike]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

Polls using a generic Rep/Dem are pretty much useless.  The fact Republican Jesus still trails is not a good sign for Republicans.

[R.P. McM]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

I'd put more stock in this poll if Generic Republican was an actual candidate and we weren't still a year out from the election.

Well, the poll also finds that fully 43% of Minnesotans think Trump actually won the 2020 election (this is coming from a Democratic polling outfit).

Walz's favorability is not just underwater, but almost 40% of voters in Hennepin and Ramsey County disapprove of him (which if translated into votes is essentially a Bush vs. Kerry 2004 level partisan breakdown). His disapproval in Greater Minnesota also stands at around 60%, which by how it's defined would mean he could perform worse than Hilary Clinton 2016 in rural MN.

Also, just look at Scott Jensen's approval rating: 49% approve with just 3%(!!!) disapprove?! Seriously, the DFL will have to do a MUCH, MUCH better job at defining this guy or else we could be staring down at a total nightmore next fall

Nonsense. I mean, 49% of no one knows who Scott Jensen is. But the broader point is this: 2022 will be a referendum on Roe & Reefer. Is the MN GOP equipped to win such an election? With paltry resources in the midst of a sex trafficking scandal? Probably not.

"Scott Jensen wants to ban abortion at the same time that members of his party are engaged in trafficking minors ..."

Yeah, that's just poison in the suburbs.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

I'd put more stock in this poll if Generic Republican was an actual candidate and we weren't still a year out from the election.

Retired Gen. R'publican

[neostassenite31]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

I'd put more stock in this poll if Generic Republican was an actual candidate and we weren't still a year out from the election.

Well, the poll also finds that fully 43% of Minnesotans think Trump actually won the 2020 election (this is coming from a Democratic polling outfit).

Walz's favorability is not just underwater, but almost 40% of voters in Hennepin and Ramsey County disapprove of him (which if translated into votes is essentially a Bush vs. Kerry 2004 level partisan breakdown). His disapproval in Greater Minnesota also stands at around 60%, which by how it's defined would mean he could perform worse than Hilary Clinton 2016 in rural MN.

Also, just look at Scott Jensen's approval rating: 49% approve with just 3%(!!!) disapprove?! Seriously, the DFL will have to do a MUCH, MUCH better job at defining this guy or else we could be staring down at a total nightmore next fall

Nonsense. I mean, 49% of no one knows who Scott Jensen is. But the broader point is this: 2022 will be a referendum on Roe and Reefer. Is the MN GOP equipped to win such an election? With paltry resources in the midst of a sex trafficking scandal? Probably not.

If there ever was one saving grace in MN politics as far as Democrats are concerned over the windy years of the past decade, it was the tireless work of our wonderous and most dear friends over at the state Republican "organization". Maybe they would be kind enough to go bankrupt and get evicted from their HQ a second time, this time a few months closer to the November election!  

[R.P. McM]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

I'd put more stock in this poll if Generic Republican was an actual candidate and we weren't still a year out from the election.

Well, the poll also finds that fully 43% of Minnesotans think Trump actually won the 2020 election (this is coming from a Democratic polling outfit).

Walz's favorability is not just underwater, but almost 40% of voters in Hennepin and Ramsey County disapprove of him (which if translated into votes is essentially a Bush vs. Kerry 2004 level partisan breakdown). His disapproval in Greater Minnesota also stands at around 60%, which by how it's defined would mean he could perform worse than Hilary Clinton 2016 in rural MN.

Also, just look at Scott Jensen's approval rating: 49% approve with just 3%(!!!) disapprove?! Seriously, the DFL will have to do a MUCH, MUCH better job at defining this guy or else we could be staring down at a total nightmore next fall

Nonsense. I mean, 49% of no one knows who Scott Jensen is. But the broader point is this: 2022 will be a referendum on Roe and Reefer. Is the MN GOP equipped to win such an election? With paltry resources in the midst of a sex trafficking scandal? Probably not.

If there ever was one saving grace in MN politics as far as Democrats are concerned over the windy years of the past decade, it was the tireless work of our wonderous and most dear friends over at the state Republican "organization". Maybe they would be kind enough to go bankrupt and get evicted from their HQ a second time, this time a few months closer to the November election!  

They're awful, no question. But one factor I don't think is widely appreciated is that MN Democrats are extremely reliable voters. And the DFL continues to make inroads with college grads. It's why the statewide margins tend to be relatively close, but always in one direction. There just aren't enough outstate voters to compensate for the MSP bloodbath. And in all likelihood, there won't be in 2022.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/maryfrancesmcg/status/1450426715063390210?s=21