Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Person Man]

So the mainstream consensus is that the best the Republicans can hope for is a draw? Maybe a senate seat for two house seats.

[Skill and Chance]

So the mainstream consensus is that the best the Republicans can hope for is a draw? Maybe a senate seat for two house seats.

Continuing Republican control of the HoD is quite plausible, especially after the scandal in that Richmond seat, but their current 52 seats is probably the ceiling.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

That would put Dems just a seat or 2 short of winning everything Biden won in both chambers, which would be an astounding result relative to recent history.  Biden's performance was the all-time Dem peak in VA in a close national election.  Biden won VA by 10%, then Youngkin won by 2%, then House Dems cumulatively won by 3% statewide in 2022.

I'm coming around toward a halfway scenario where they win everything Biden won by at least 7%, which would be something like 22D/18R in the senate and 52D/48R in the HoD.  The polls we have seen so far all look like 2022.  Republicans can reasonably hope to hold the HoD and the probability of a tie (which cannot be broken without a party switch) is meaningful.  I don't think Republicans can reasonably hope to flip the state senate anymore.  They can get to 19 by winning tossups, but the final seat is just too hard.

I disagree with the idea Biden's 2020 performance was the all-time peak of Dems federally in VA. Warner literally outran Biden; Kaine in 2018 did so by a lot. Sure those races weren't seriously contested, but show it's feasibly possible for Dems to outrun Biden 2020 numbers in VA.

Not saying that'll happen here in the legislative elections, but with the exception of maybe 2 seats, all the Biden 2020 State House seats in VA are either safe/likely blue or have been shifting left. It's not hard to see Dems getting like 57 seats even if the statewide environment is only like D+6 or smtg. 58 is probably on the upper end of realistic, but def not impossible.

Agree State Sen is prolly a harder lift for Rs than the statehouse, especially since even Dem's seat 21 is to the left of the state in most recent election results. In the statehouse there are a ton of Biden + 7ish statehouse seats Rs have a fighting chance in.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

That would put Dems just a seat or 2 short of winning everything Biden won in both chambers, which would be an astounding result relative to recent history.  Biden's performance was the all-time Dem peak in VA in a close national election.  Biden won VA by 10%, then Youngkin won by 2%, then House Dems cumulatively won by 3% statewide in 2022.

I'm coming around toward a halfway scenario where they win everything Biden won by at least 7%, which would be something like 22D/18R in the senate and 52D/48R in the HoD.  The polls we have seen so far all look like 2022.  Republicans can reasonably hope to hold the HoD and the probability of a tie (which cannot be broken without a party switch) is meaningful.  I don't think Republicans can reasonably hope to flip the state senate anymore.  They can get to 19 by winning tossups, but the final seat is just too hard.

I disagree with the idea Biden's 2020 performance was the all-time peak of Dems federally in VA. Warner literally outran Biden; Kaine in 2018 did so by a lot. Sure those races weren't seriously contested, but show it's feasibly possible for Dems to outrun Biden 2020 numbers in VA.

Not saying that'll happen here in the legislative elections, but with the exception of maybe 2 seats, all the Biden 2020 State House seats in VA are either safe/likely blue or have been shifting left. It's not hard to see Dems getting like 57 seats even if the statewide environment is only like D+6 or smtg. 58 is probably on the upper end of realistic, but def not impossible.

Agree State Sen is prolly a harder lift for Rs than the statehouse, especially since even Dem's seat 21 is to the left of the state in most recent election results. In the statehouse there are a ton of Biden + 7ish statehouse seats Rs have a fighting chance in.

1.I don't think Biden would even win Virginia by 6 if the elections were held today, given the polling.

2.Virginia is definitely redder at the state level than the federal level.

I could see Democrats flip the House narrowly and win 22-18 in the Senate, but my current prediction is 50-50 House and 21-19 Senate, with Republicans still in the game for a trifecta if late deciders break R as they did in 2021/2022.

[Person Man]

So the mainstream consensus is that the best the Republicans can hope for is a draw? Maybe a senate seat for two house seats.

Continuing Republican control of the HoD is quite plausible, especially after the scandal in that Richmond seat, but their current 52 seats is probably the ceiling.

So the best plausible GOP performance is the status quo.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

That would put Dems just a seat or 2 short of winning everything Biden won in both chambers, which would be an astounding result relative to recent history.  Biden's performance was the all-time Dem peak in VA in a close national election.  Biden won VA by 10%, then Youngkin won by 2%, then House Dems cumulatively won by 3% statewide in 2022.

I'm coming around toward a halfway scenario where they win everything Biden won by at least 7%, which would be something like 22D/18R in the senate and 52D/48R in the HoD.  The polls we have seen so far all look like 2022.  Republicans can reasonably hope to hold the HoD and the probability of a tie (which cannot be broken without a party switch) is meaningful.  I don't think Republicans can reasonably hope to flip the state senate anymore.  They can get to 19 by winning tossups, but the final seat is just too hard.

I disagree with the idea Biden's 2020 performance was the all-time peak of Dems federally in VA. Warner literally outran Biden; Kaine in 2018 did so by a lot. Sure those races weren't seriously contested, but show it's feasibly possible for Dems to outrun Biden 2020 numbers in VA.

Not saying that'll happen here in the legislative elections, but with the exception of maybe 2 seats, all the Biden 2020 State House seats in VA are either safe/likely blue or have been shifting left. It's not hard to see Dems getting like 57 seats even if the statewide environment is only like D+6 or smtg. 58 is probably on the upper end of realistic, but def not impossible.

Agree State Sen is prolly a harder lift for Rs than the statehouse, especially since even Dem's seat 21 is to the left of the state in most recent election results. In the statehouse there are a ton of Biden + 7ish statehouse seats Rs have a fighting chance in.

1.I don't think Biden would even win Virginia by 6 if the elections were held today, given the polling.

2.Virginia is definitely redder at the state level than the federal level.

I could see Democrats flip the House narrowly and win 22-18 in the Senate, but my current prediction is 50-50 House and 21-19 Senate, with Republicans still in the game for a trifecta if late deciders break R as they did in 2021/2022.

1. Don't think Biden will fall much in VA unless Dems are having big, big turnout/persuasion problems nationally. VA isn't the type of place there are significant swaths of the types of voters Biden has been polling poorly with (at least in a relative sense), and if anything tends to have a disproportionate share of the groups he's been polling strongest with.

2. Not sure if this is true; I'd say Virginia tends to be overreactive on the State Level due to the elections being held in off years. You also have some degree of downballot lag across the state, it just so happens that most of the swingiest parts of the state (suburbs) tend to have R-favorable downballot lag, and other parts of the state that are swingy (whites v non-white communities), non-whites tend to see poor relatively turnout in off years.

Honestly it can be hard to conclude if really any state is fundamentally bluer/redder down ballot when you're dealing with a relatively small sample size of recent elections which all occur in different years, and its hard to tell to what extent a swing in results were due to a change in circumstances between cycles vs the state just being fundementally redder or bluer for different types of elections.

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

That would put Dems just a seat or 2 short of winning everything Biden won in both chambers, which would be an astounding result relative to recent history.  Biden's performance was the all-time Dem peak in VA in a close national election.  Biden won VA by 10%, then Youngkin won by 2%, then House Dems cumulatively won by 3% statewide in 2022.

I'm coming around toward a halfway scenario where they win everything Biden won by at least 7%, which would be something like 22D/18R in the senate and 52D/48R in the HoD.  The polls we have seen so far all look like 2022.  Republicans can reasonably hope to hold the HoD and the probability of a tie (which cannot be broken without a party switch) is meaningful.  I don't think Republicans can reasonably hope to flip the state senate anymore.  They can get to 19 by winning tossups, but the final seat is just too hard.

I disagree with the idea Biden's 2020 performance was the all-time peak of Dems federally in VA. Warner literally outran Biden; Kaine in 2018 did so by a lot. Sure those races weren't seriously contested, but show it's feasibly possible for Dems to outrun Biden 2020 numbers in VA.

Not saying that'll happen here in the legislative elections, but with the exception of maybe 2 seats, all the Biden 2020 State House seats in VA are either safe/likely blue or have been shifting left. It's not hard to see Dems getting like 57 seats even if the statewide environment is only like D+6 or smtg. 58 is probably on the upper end of realistic, but def not impossible.

Agree State Sen is prolly a harder lift for Rs than the statehouse, especially since even Dem's seat 21 is to the left of the state in most recent election results. In the statehouse there are a ton of Biden + 7ish statehouse seats Rs have a fighting chance in.

1.I don't think Biden would even win Virginia by 6 if the elections were held today, given the polling.

2.Virginia is definitely redder at the state level than the federal level.

I could see Democrats flip the House narrowly and win 22-18 in the Senate, but my current prediction is 50-50 House and 21-19 Senate, with Republicans still in the game for a trifecta if late deciders break R as they did in 2021/2022.

This isn't that hard, because the most probable 22nd Dem seat is Biden +9, has a Dem incumbent, and voted Dem in 2022.  22D/18R in the state senate could reasonably happen while R's hold or tie the HoD.  Dems need Biden +7ish seats for control in the HoD.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

That would put Dems just a seat or 2 short of winning everything Biden won in both chambers, which would be an astounding result relative to recent history.  Biden's performance was the all-time Dem peak in VA in a close national election.  Biden won VA by 10%, then Youngkin won by 2%, then House Dems cumulatively won by 3% statewide in 2022.

I'm coming around toward a halfway scenario where they win everything Biden won by at least 7%, which would be something like 22D/18R in the senate and 52D/48R in the HoD.  The polls we have seen so far all look like 2022.  Republicans can reasonably hope to hold the HoD and the probability of a tie (which cannot be broken without a party switch) is meaningful.  I don't think Republicans can reasonably hope to flip the state senate anymore.  They can get to 19 by winning tossups, but the final seat is just too hard.

I disagree with the idea Biden's 2020 performance was the all-time peak of Dems federally in VA. Warner literally outran Biden; Kaine in 2018 did so by a lot. Sure those races weren't seriously contested, but show it's feasibly possible for Dems to outrun Biden 2020 numbers in VA.

Not saying that'll happen here in the legislative elections, but with the exception of maybe 2 seats, all the Biden 2020 State House seats in VA are either safe/likely blue or have been shifting left. It's not hard to see Dems getting like 57 seats even if the statewide environment is only like D+6 or smtg. 58 is probably on the upper end of realistic, but def not impossible.

Agree State Sen is prolly a harder lift for Rs than the statehouse, especially since even Dem's seat 21 is to the left of the state in most recent election results. In the statehouse there are a ton of Biden + 7ish statehouse seats Rs have a fighting chance in.

1.I don't think Biden would even win Virginia by 6 if the elections were held today, given the polling.

2.Virginia is definitely redder at the state level than the federal level.

I could see Democrats flip the House narrowly and win 22-18 in the Senate, but my current prediction is 50-50 House and 21-19 Senate, with Republicans still in the game for a trifecta if late deciders break R as they did in 2021/2022.

This isn't that hard, because the most probable 22nd Dem seat is Biden +9, has a Dem incumbent, and voted Dem in 2022.  22D/18R in the state senate could reasonably happen while R's hold or tie the HoD.  Dems need Biden +7ish seats for control in the HoD.

I believe Dems only need Biden + 11 seats for control of the HOD.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

That would put Dems just a seat or 2 short of winning everything Biden won in both chambers, which would be an astounding result relative to recent history.  Biden's performance was the all-time Dem peak in VA in a close national election.  Biden won VA by 10%, then Youngkin won by 2%, then House Dems cumulatively won by 3% statewide in 2022.

I'm coming around toward a halfway scenario where they win everything Biden won by at least 7%, which would be something like 22D/18R in the senate and 52D/48R in the HoD.  The polls we have seen so far all look like 2022.  Republicans can reasonably hope to hold the HoD and the probability of a tie (which cannot be broken without a party switch) is meaningful.  I don't think Republicans can reasonably hope to flip the state senate anymore.  They can get to 19 by winning tossups, but the final seat is just too hard.

Hmmm... do you think SD-31 is no longer winnable for Rs? It's still only Tilt D in Chaz Nuttycombe's forecast, and Segura is still significantly ahead of Perry in spending (although it's not longer 10 to 1).

I don't think seat 19 and seat 20 for Rs are more than 3-4 points apart, so if seat 19 is a tossup, the Senate is probably only Lean D. Still an uphill climb, but not impossible. Keep in mind that at this point in 2021 VA-Gov also looked like Lean D.

[It’s so Joever]

Still pretty consistent with now over 100K+

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1709598544636633452

Early voting always favors Ds, see 2021.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1711350788465803643?t=HPG8NSrg3wyZDcfMyNk...

So probably the likely electorate is a bit more than D+1.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, unfortunate that we keep getting mostly co/efficient polls, but if even they are getting a D+1 electorate, it's likely even bluer.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Yeah, unfortunate that we keep getting mostly co/efficient polls, but if even they are getting a D+1 electorate, it's likely even bluer.

You can't be sure though - in 2021 at this point internal polling from both sides showed a tie, while public polls showed a Lean D race.

[Duke of York]

Yeah, unfortunate that we keep getting mostly co/efficient polls, but if even they are getting a D+1 electorate, it's likely even bluer.

I don't trust polls anymore. I always assume the Republican will win.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1711350788465803643?t=HPG8NSrg3wyZDcfMyNk...

So probably the likely electorate is a bit more than D+1.

Democrats probably won’t win back the house with those numbers, but they are in good shape in the Senate. It’ll probably be a wash. Even in 2021, Republicans didn’t out turnout Democrats.

The only reason Republicans sweep is if they are being awarded, instead of being punished, for abortion. If they are being punished for it, the only question is how badly they will lose.

If its like 2022, Democrats probably barely sweep.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, unfortunate that we keep getting mostly co/efficient polls, but if even they are getting a D+1 electorate, it's likely even bluer.

I don't trust polls anymore. I always assume the Republican will win.

Polls have been generally accurate, as long as Trump isn't on the ballot.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, unfortunate that we keep getting mostly co/efficient polls, but if even they are getting a D+1 electorate, it's likely even bluer.

You can't be sure though - in 2021 at this point internal polling from both sides showed a tie, while public polls showed a Lean D race.

I mean this is basically an internal GOP poll.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1711415059841175689

[Person Man]

Yeah, unfortunate that we keep getting mostly co/efficient polls, but if even they are getting a D+1 electorate, it's likely even bluer.

You can't be sure though - in 2021 at this point internal polling from both sides showed a tie, while public polls showed a Lean D race.

I mean this is basically an internal GOP poll.

I’m OK as seeing this as a typical good case for Republicans. If they do any better, I would be inclined to believe that abortion HELPED Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

Glad Ds are keeping up with the Youngkin $$$ onslaught

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1711345510265581875

[Person Man]

Glad Ds are keeping up with the Youngkin $$$ onslaught

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1711345510265581875

It would be outrageous if Republicans get a blank check in a Biden +10 state. Democrats are done next year if they can't keep any power even in Virginia.

[Aurelius2]

I saw a shocking number of Jason Ford signs driving through rural VA-28 yesterday, from Thornton Gap down through Culpeper onward to Remington (gotta make that Moo Thru detour) and then finally northward to NOVA. I actually assumed he was the Republican candidate until I googled him later. I know signs only mean so much but it makes me wonder if he will overperform.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

In 2023, the main competitive special election saw a shift from Biden +10 to Rouse +1.7.

Republicans probably do better in higher profile elections than in special elections (they did do better in the actual 2022 midterms than the special elections preceding it, and all the evidence so far shows that this will be a relatively high turnout election), which at least means that Republicans should flip Biden +8.8 SD-24, though the incumbency advantage is unclear.

[Person Man]

In 2023, the main competitive special election saw a shift from Biden +10 to Rouse +1.7.

Republicans probably do better in higher profile elections than in special elections (they did do better in the actual 2022 midterms than the special elections preceding it, and all the evidence so far shows that this will be a relatively high turnout election), which at least means that Republicans should flip Biden +8.8 SD-24, though the incumbency advantage is unclear.

That would line up with a D+2 result.

[Oryxslayer]

In 2023, the main competitive special election saw a shift from Biden +10 to Rouse +1.7.

Republicans probably do better in higher profile elections than in special elections (they did do better in the actual 2022 midterms than the special elections preceding it, and all the evidence so far shows that this will be a relatively high turnout election), which at least means that Republicans should flip Biden +8.8 SD-24, though the incumbency advantage is unclear.

That would line up with a D+2 result.

I mean if he's referring to VA SD-07, selectively choosing one data point doesn't help, and arguably fulfils the "lies, damn lies, and stats" quote.

We can alternatively say that SD-07 was 51.6% - 47.5% Youngkin. So the environment at the time of the January Special was by that benchmark, was a 6-point swing from the 2021 election or implying a 52-48 or D+4 Dem environment.

Or we can say compare it to the 2022 Congressional elections within the district, which was  52-48 Dem. Therefore the shift would be R+2 to reach the special results. This would imply a 50.5-49.5 two-party environment statewide, shifted from 51.6-48.4, or D+1.

And the congressional election benchmark itself leads us into questions of incumbency, fundraising advantages, and all that other stuff and how it varies by district. Cause despite the 2022 statewide result being D+2 combined in straight two party, and then us reducing Dems by 1 and increasing R's by 1 to reach D+1, like the special election would suggest, Dem's still get 22-18 in the state senate and 50-49-1 in the State House, with HD-21 having a de facto tied R two-party lead of 44 votes.