Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[henster]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1699853557506220194

Talk about lighting money on fire, $7M on ads in states that don't even have elections this fall but nothing for VA where GOP is on the cusp of a trifecta in a Biden state. Dems are dumping plenty of cash in KY for Beshear who is pretty much a lame duck because his vetoes can be overridden by a simple majority. This is a case where there the Dems in Disarray doom stories in Politico/NYT are warranted so the big donors start understanding whats at stake. 

[henster]

Yeah, Dems need to get their sh*t together with VA spending. Though I assume that doesn't include the $1.2-1.5M Biden had DNC send to VA.

VA Dems paying the price for fumbling redistricting back in 2019. They could've killed the sham redistricting commission in 2020 and drew their own maps but instead they let it pass to look good. Probably the biggest political self own of the decade.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Yeah, Dems need to get their sh*t together with VA spending. Though I assume that doesn't include the $1.2-1.5M Biden had DNC send to VA.

VA Dems paying the price for fumbling redistricting back in 2019. They could've killed the sham redistricting commission in 2020 and drew their own maps but instead they let it pass to look good. Probably the biggest political self own of the decade.

I thought Dems were against gerrymandering?

[Pollster]

I have seen no polling in this state this cycle yet, but just a friendly reminder that Virginia is one of the few states (maybe the only) where aggressive "Dems are blowing it!" beltway media coverage can actually galvanize Democratic voters.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I have seen no polling in this state this cycle yet, but just a friendly reminder that Virginia is one of the few states (maybe the only) where aggressive "Dems are blowing it!" beltway media coverage can actually galvanize Democratic voters.

Supposedly that was supposed to be the case in 2021 as well. But we'll see. I still think abortion could be the hail mary again here as it was in other states. Youngkin probably would have lost if the gubernatorial election took place post-Dobbs.

[The Mikado]

I have seen no polling in this state this cycle yet, but just a friendly reminder that Virginia is one of the few states (maybe the only) where aggressive "Dems are blowing it!" beltway media coverage can actually galvanize Democratic voters.

Supposedly that was supposed to be the case in 2021 as well. But we'll see. I still think abortion could be the hail mary again here as it was in other states. Youngkin probably would have lost if the gubernatorial election took place post-Dobbs.

I think people take the fact that Youngkin won and neglect that it was by 2%. It was a 13 point overperformance of Trump, which was impressive, and an 11% swing from 2017, but even a fairly minimal swing towards TMac and Youngkin ends up washed up.

Dems don't need to win by 11% like Biden or 9% like Northam to flip the legislature. Winning statewide by 3% like they did in 2022 probably flips the State House their way.

[henster]

Yeah, Dems need to get their sh*t together with VA spending. Though I assume that doesn't include the $1.2-1.5M Biden had DNC send to VA.

VA Dems paying the price for fumbling redistricting back in 2019. They could've killed the sham redistricting commission in 2020 and drew their own maps but instead they let it pass to look good. Probably the biggest political self own of the decade.

I thought Dems were against gerrymandering?

The current redistricting commission Dems allowed to pass is a mess one of the worst in the country. Legislators and lobbyist are allowed to be commissioners and it's so easy to deadlock and throw things to the Supreme Court everyone games the system so it ends up there. In the end Sean Trende a Republican activist basically drew the maps with no accountability.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Yeah, Dems need to get their sh*t together with VA spending. Though I assume that doesn't include the $1.2-1.5M Biden had DNC send to VA.

VA Dems paying the price for fumbling redistricting back in 2019. They could've killed the sham redistricting commission in 2020 and drew their own maps but instead they let it pass to look good. Probably the biggest political self own of the decade.

I thought Dems were against gerrymandering?

The current redistricting commission Dems allowed to pass is a mess one of the worst in the country. Legislators and lobbyist are allowed to be commissioners and it's so easy to deadlock and throw things to the Supreme Court everyone games the system so it ends up there. In the end Sean Trende a Republican activist basically drew the maps with no accountability.

Imo we need to switch to a computer algorithm. There will still be bias, but the more models you build off of, the closer you get to fairness.

[The Mikado]

Yeah, Dems need to get their sh*t together with VA spending. Though I assume that doesn't include the $1.2-1.5M Biden had DNC send to VA.

VA Dems paying the price for fumbling redistricting back in 2019. They could've killed the sham redistricting commission in 2020 and drew their own maps but instead they let it pass to look good. Probably the biggest political self own of the decade.

I thought Dems were against gerrymandering?

The current redistricting commission Dems allowed to pass is a mess one of the worst in the country. Legislators and lobbyist are allowed to be commissioners and it's so easy to deadlock and throw things to the Supreme Court everyone games the system so it ends up there. In the end Sean Trende a Republican activist basically drew the maps with no accountability.

Imo we need to switch to a computer algorithm. There will still be bias, but the more models you build off of, the closer you get to fairness.

Some variation of the Iowa system where a computer model pops out a map and the legislature gets to vote yes or no and if they vote no the computer just pops out a second map and they repeat until they get a map they accept would at least avoid the worst intentional gerrymandering while still allowing human input.

[Aurelius2]

Great news: Gov. Youngkin has given Scott Smith a full pardon.

[Person Man]

co/efficient (R) has D+1

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1699087583613993354

What does a D+1 topline probably give us?

[Aurelius2]

co/efficient (R) has D+1

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1699087583613993354

What does a D+1 topline probably give us?

No clue. I'd like to see a poll of Dunnavant's district.

[Roll Roons]

Dem candidate in a competitive ... Rich District North of Richmond made and posted public sex tapes. In a closely divided district like this one, anything could matter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/09/11/susanna-gibson-sex-website-virginia-candidate/

[wbrocks67]

Dem candidate in a competitive ... Rich District North of Richmond made and posted public sex tapes. In a closely divided district like this one, anything could matter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/09/11/susanna-gibson-sex-website-virginia-candidate/

This entire thing is gross... in that Republicans really are trying to use this as some scandal. We should not be surprised that Youngkin and his goons sent this to try and make it a thing. Literally what this woman does legally with her husband in her home has nothing to do with this race or her campaign. If anything, it seems to be backfiring on the GOP and galvanizing people around her. As it should.

[Duke of York]

Dem candidate in a competitive ... Rich District North of Richmond made and posted public sex tapes. In a closely divided district like this one, anything could matter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/09/11/susanna-gibson-sex-website-virginia-candidate/

who cares what she does in the privacy of her own home?

[Tekken_Guy]

Dem candidate in a competitive ... Rich District North of Richmond made and posted public sex tapes. In a closely divided district like this one, anything could matter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/09/11/susanna-gibson-sex-website-virginia-candidate/

This entire thing is gross... in that Republicans really are trying to use this as some scandal. We should not be surprised that Youngkin and his goons sent this to try and make it a thing. Literally what this woman does legally with her husband in her home has nothing to do with this race or her campaign. If anything, it seems to be backfiring on the GOP and galvanizing people around her. As it should.

https://twitter.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1701336009940590599?s=61&t=J4ObZwL...

Chaz Nuttycombe moved the race towards the GOP in reaction to the story so the opposite might be happening.

[heatcharger]

Tossup -> Likely Republican

In a place like Goochland, this’ll sink her with suburban women.

[Aurelius2]

Dem candidate in a competitive ... Rich District North of Richmond made and posted public sex tapes. In a closely divided district like this one, anything could matter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/09/11/susanna-gibson-sex-website-virginia-candidate/

who cares what she does in the privacy of her own home?

It's no longer merely the privacy of your home when you are purposely sharing it with thousands of followers on a public website, and for money at that.

Furthermore, this may surprise non-Virginians, but porn is actually a somewhat-hot issue in state politics right now. I expect it to have a bit more impact than usual due to that, as well as due to the resurgence of puritanical sexual ethics in the past year or two.

[Aurelius2]

I do not think Gibson's strategy on this will work.

Daniel P. Watkins, a lawyer for Gibson, said disseminating the videos constitutes a violation of the state’s revenge porn law, which makes it a Class 1 misdemeanor to “maliciously” distribute nude or sexual images of another person with “intent to coerce, harass, or intimidate.”

But unlike what we think of as revenge porn cases, she had widely distributed these images to the public:

The Post typically does not identify victims of alleged sex crimes to protect their privacy. In this case, Gibson originally live-streamed these sexual acts on a site that was not password-protected. The couple had more than 5,700 followers there. Many of the videos remained available to the public on other unrestricted sites as of Saturday. Watkins said Gibson was not aware of, and had not authorized, the posting of Chaturbate material on other sites.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/09/11/susanna-gibson-sex-website-virginia-candidate/

[Skill and Chance]

Dem candidate in a competitive ... Rich District North of Richmond made and posted public sex tapes. In a closely divided district like this one, anything could matter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/09/11/susanna-gibson-sex-website-virginia-candidate/

who cares what she does in the privacy of her own home?

It's no longer merely the privacy of your home when you are purposely sharing it with thousands of followers on a public website, and for money at that.

Furthermore, this may surprise non-Virginians, but porn is actually a somewhat-hot issue in state politics right now. I expect it to have a bit more impact than usual due to that, as well as due to the resurgence of puritanical sexual ethics in the past year or two.

However, this easily ties into a statewide "R's are anti-woman" narrative and gender/sexuality issues in general.  I don't think VA R's benefit at all from having those issues front and center post-Dobbs.

This might make it more likely R's win that one seat.  IMO it also makes it more likely D's sweep all of the other swing seats because more R candidates end up saying stupid/misogynist stuff about this and related issues (one of them in a seat with a significant Biden margin already got recorded endorsing a total abortion ban).

[Aurelius2]

Dem candidate in a competitive ... Rich District North of Richmond made and posted public sex tapes. In a closely divided district like this one, anything could matter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/09/11/susanna-gibson-sex-website-virginia-candidate/

who cares what she does in the privacy of her own home?

It's no longer merely the privacy of your home when you are purposely sharing it with thousands of followers on a public website, and for money at that.

Furthermore, this may surprise non-Virginians, but porn is actually a somewhat-hot issue in state politics right now. I expect it to have a bit more impact than usual due to that, as well as due to the resurgence of puritanical sexual ethics in the past year or two.

However, this easily ties into a statewide "R's are anti-woman" narrative and gender/sexuality issues in general.  I don't think VA R's benefit at all from having those issues front and center post-Dobbs.

This might make it more likely R's win that one seat.  IMO it also makes it more likely D's sweep all of the other swing seats because more R candidates end up saying stupid/misogynist stuff about this and related issues (one of them in a seat with a significant Biden margin already got recorded endorsing a total abortion ban).

Oh, I don't disagree at all. The socon right has massively overreached on this stuff in the past year and the electoral hits just keep coming. Dunnavant in particular is trying to run in a very tricky niche, in a pretty blue district, and her niche is much harder to win from than it was pre-Dobbs. I was speaking more for this particular race.

As for the state-level political fights over porn, I don't actually think they particularly benefit either party overall. But I do think its unusual salience combined with this scandal could together activate a certain type of voter in this district to turn out at much higher rates than usual.

[Skill and Chance]

It's possible that SD-31 (Segura vs Perry) might actually finish strictly to the right of the tipping point seat.

Agreed. This makes it look like SD-24 will vote left of SD-31 and be decisive (if R's hold SD-16, they have almost surely already flipped the chamber).  That would fit with the dynamic of people who are neither white nor black shifting R while college towns shift left (SD-24 has one of the larger public colleges in it).  There are some Loudoun-specific issues that are probably hurting Dems right now, too.

Also looks like Dems have just given up on SD-17 despite the substantial Biden margin there.

[Ferguson97]

This is not going to hurt her in a post-Me Too era. Republicans are just going to look like assholes for leaking the images.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This is not going to hurt her in a post-Me Too era. Republicans are just going to look like assholes for leaking the images.

Isn’t it also, ya know, illegal. I feel like this falls under revenge porn.

[Skill and Chance]

This is not going to hurt her in a post-Me Too era. Republicans are just going to look like assholes for leaking the images.

Feels right to me.  Potentially lose the war to win the battle.