Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[SInNYC]

The next step for some in the election mafia will be to downplay the significance of this race as McAuliffe was a "bad candidate" (which, he was) that uniquely underperformed. So... how does that explain the New Jersey results, or the other statewide races that look nearly identical (with an incumbent Dem AG likely losing)? Or the competitive HoD?

I agree with the gist of your message. However, I never liked arguments ascribing any significance to the fact that  another down-ticket candidate also did bad. Voters generally dont bother coming to the election to vote for an AG and its the main candidate that draws voters. I'm not saying this just for VA - I also said it when people were claiming Hillary wasn't a bad candidate because several D senators did even worse.

But I consider the comparison with other states valid, and Ds underperformed almost everywhere yesterday, though mostly not as badly as in VA.

[Orwell]

Any news on the state senate? Or was it not up? I know Dems lost the house.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Any news on the state senate? Or was it not up? I know Dems lost the house.

Not up until 2023

[jojoju1998]

I hope that they release full demographics soon.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

I find it fascinating that those who chose abortion as their number 1 concern in exit polls broke 60-40% for Youngkin after all of the "VA will become the next TX" scaremongering. It either shows the pro-choice position may not be as popular as Dem activists assume or GOP voters still care way more about abortion than Dem voters even after the recent moves against Roe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2021/exit-polls-virginia-governor/

[Pres Mike]

Inflation. Inflation. Inflation. Inflation. Inflation. Inflation. Inflation.

Gas prices, gas prices, gas prices, gas prices,


These are the only two reasons why Democrats lost. Period

Why is no one talking about this?

When I talk to ANYONE, Democrat or Republican, about the current Biden adminsitration all I ever hear is "Well gas is crazy high right now and I can't find what I need in stores"

Ya'll, I have met parents who could not find ANY Halloween costume for their kids. I never heard of that happening before

Most Americans haven't even heard of BBB or BIF

[Orwell]

Any news on the state senate? Or was it not up? I know Dems lost the house.

Not up until 2023

Smh why can’t they do half every cycle

[Pres Mike]

In 2020, Biden got 2.4 million in VA and Trump got 1.9 million

In 2018, McTaff got 1.610 million and YoungKim got 1.677 million

Basically, a lot more Democrats stayed home than Republicans. While I'm sure there were some Biden-Youngkim voters I feel like Democrats stayed home from burnout. Sick of mask mandates, inflation and rising gas prices

[Skill and Chance]

Any news on the state senate? Or was it not up? I know Dems lost the house.

Not up until 2023

Smh why can’t they do half every cycle

If they did, Republicans would likely have a trifecta, assuming at least one of the Norfolk-Eastern Shore or outer Loudoun narrow Dem seats was up. 

[Mr. Reactionary]

Any news on the state senate? Or was it not up? I know Dems lost the house.

Not up until 2023

Smh why can’t they do half every cycle

To slow down radical change.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Exit polls of course should be taken with a massive grain of salt (especially the Edison Research ones), but they show Youngkin doing 15 points better than Trump with White Evangelical voters. Democrats' heavy focus on abortion/right to choose likely contributed to this.

Such a shift would easily and clearly explain Youngkin overperforming Trump's SWVA margins, and is a strong sign - especially in such a high turnout election - that Republican margins in rural America (especially in the deep south/great plains) are not yet maxed out.

The rural margins in the deep south are maxed out. They are consistently 70-85% R in the exurban and rural counties in most southern states from South Carolina to TX. The only real exceptions are heavily black rural areas. The evangelicals that swung back R are suburban evangelicals which are a huge block of voters in southern suburbs, especially in GA in TX. In GA, Democrats can at least take solace in the fact that a lot of the gains were thanks to the mobilization of African Americans who are at no risk of swinging GOP. TX Democrats however should be terrified of this result. If this continues, I don't see Abbott winning by less than 13 points and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up over 15.

[Sir Mohamed]

I read this thread earlier on the morning page by page before checking the full results. What can I say? A true mess!

In all fairness, I credit Glenn Youngkin for running a strong campaign and pulling this off. Never expected it to happen, although my optimism begun to disappear in most recent days and weeks. I kinda feel embarrassed, also for ever thinking T-Mac would be a good presidential candidate. He ran a poor campaign in a race was absolutely winnable. Nonetheless, it's a lazy analysis just to say Youngkin had a strong and T-Mac a bad campaign. That's pretty much true, but the Democrats underperformed in other races as well. Even New Jersey is a disaster, perhaps even more so than Virginia.

The Democrats really need to get their sh*t together and run competent campaigns all across the country, although my confidence in them has very much declined. Maybe I'm just having a wrong view over the Atlantic Ocean since large parts of the Republicans have become so extreme that in my European bubble it's impossible to imagine they run competitive elections.

And last but not least, the Virginia election finally puts the "high turnout automatically benefit only Democrats" to rest. I thought that for a long time as well, but hereby confess that I was wrong. Maybe that was sort of true in 2010 or 2014, but certainly no longer the case. Especially as a number of demographic blocs aren't that solid Democratic (suburbanites, Hispanics, etc.). And the Democratic Party better figures out how to address that. So far, they seem pretty much clueless.

McAuliffe would never ever have been a strong candidate for prez. Trump would have slaughtered him, and even a dude like Mitt Romney would have had a decent chance in any election that hasn't a strong D-leaning enviornment. He doesn't have much charisma and could easily have been portrayed as a swamp creature with strong Clinton does.

Tmac only got lucky in 2013 by winning with 47.8% while a Liberartian took 6.5%.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Most of the economic issues are not the Democrats fault. It's a product of a re-opening of the economy where we put a lot of money into the money supply. That worked to guard against deflation when no one was spending money, but now that things are re-opening and people are spending, prices are skyrocketing.

And the Democrats are in charge, so they get the blame. It also doesn't help that the Democrats cannot get together to pass any part of Biden's agenda. Manchin needs to switch parties already.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1455712865063776261?s=20

lol

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455910207507345411?s=20

[Sir Mohamed]

What's the GOP expected to get done with a trifecta in VA?

[jojoju1998]

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1455712865063776261?s=20

lol

THAT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE WHEN THE YOUNGKIN ACTUALLY SEEMS TO HAVE UNDERPERFORMED WITH WHITE VOTERS AND DID BETTER WITH MINORITIES!!

That being said, I want to see the full demographics.

[Mr. Reactionary]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455910207507345411?s=20

That'll give them some cushion until the special election to fill Miyares HOD seat.

[Inmate Trump]

So how well are Republicans gonna fix the 2024 election result in Virginia?

[Mr. Reactionary]

What's the GOP expected to get done with a trifecta in VA?

They dont have a trifecta. This is just stopping the radically insane last 2 years where the Dems rammed through hundreds of bills no one had time to read that did stupid things like accidentally eliminate comp time, ban plastic water bottles and styrafoam, criminalize letting a balloon go, gutting jury trials, etc.

[StateBoiler]

What's the GOP expected to get done with a trifecta in VA?

They dont have a trifecta. This is just stopping the radically insane last 2 years where the Dems rammed through hundreds of bills no one had time to read that did stupid things like accidentally eliminate comp time, ban plastic water bottles and styrafoam, criminalize letting a balloon go, gutting jury trials, etc.

...spending state funds suing the federal government that the ERA is now part of the Constitution...

[Inmate Trump]

Lessons from last night:

Republicans have a much easier time when Donald Trump does not involve himself in the campaign. Trump is a failed candidate in the suburbs around the country. Had he been involved with Youngkin's campaign, it likely could have made this an even closer election or a Democratic win. Republicans! Drop Trump! He already lost you the presidency, the House, and the Senate. Without him, you won Virginia and are close to winning New Jersey. He does you no favors. Drop him.

Democrats need to stop making everything about Trump and focus on real issues that people care about. Personally, I think Trump is the single greatest threat this nation has ever faced (including civil war, and world wars). Never before have we had a president attempt a coup, but Trump did. However, average voters have forgotten that because Democrats failed to make that case when they had the chance and it's too late to do it now. So the focus must shift to other issues.

[Sir Mohamed]

What's the GOP expected to get done with a trifecta in VA?

They dont have a trifecta. This is just stopping the radically insane last 2 years where the Dems rammed through hundreds of bills no one had time to read that did stupid things like accidentally eliminate comp time, ban plastic water bottles and styrafoam, criminalize letting a balloon go, gutting jury trials, etc.

It would be hilarious, if Youngkin actually got some mainstream policies done by working with Dem legislators.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1455712865063776261?s=20
lol

THAT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE WHEN THE YOUNGKIN ACTUALLY SEEMS TO HAVE UNDERPERFORMED WITH WHITE VOTERS AND DID BETTER WITH MINORITIES!!

That being said, I want to see the full demographics.

Party hacks always say this and it's a total cop-out. Democrats don't do any sort of self-reflecting or self-criticism. It's always blaming the voters and insulting their intelligence, calling them racist, etc. The party can do no wrong. If you want to see the end result of this attitude, just look at the Florida Democratic Party.

[Pollster]

Exit polls of course should be taken with a massive grain of salt (especially the Edison Research ones), but they show Youngkin doing 15 points better than Trump with White Evangelical voters. Democrats' heavy focus on abortion/right to choose likely contributed to this.

Such a shift would easily and clearly explain Youngkin overperforming Trump's SWVA margins, and is a strong sign - especially in such a high turnout election - that Republican margins in rural America (especially in the deep south/great plains) are not yet maxed out.

The rural margins in the deep south are maxed out. They are consistently 70-85% R in the exurban and rural counties in most southern states from South Carolina to TX. The only real exceptions are heavily black rural areas. The evangelicals that swung back R are suburban evangelicals which are a huge block of voters in southern suburbs, especially in GA in TX. In GA, Democrats can at least take solace in the fact that a lot of the gains were thanks to the mobilization of African Americans who are at no risk of swinging GOP. TX Democrats however should be terrified of this result. If this continues, I don't see Abbott winning by less than 13 points and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up over 15.

Deleted this post shortly after posting it because the numbers were a bit messed up. Regardless, definitely need more research into suburban evangelicals - their population numbers are waning quickly, many are moving further south/towards the coast for retirement, and any reversion among them politically is not going to be sustainable. Certainly no reason to rule out further GOP gains among rurals.