Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1455606853677813771

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I just want to point out that R areas hitting 2017 levels isn't good enough... because they literally lost that election.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Hot take; TMac wins Falls Church 😤😤

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1455606853677813771

JFC, so young/POC precincts at almost double the turnout of rural red county with only 4 hours left...  

[Old Man Willow]

What sites will have interactive county results w/o paywall?

[Non Swing Voter]

What sites will have interactive county results w/o paywall?

if its not on vpap it doesn't exist

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hot take; TMac wins Falls Church 😤😤

Now now, that's pretty bold. Here's an even bolder take: TMac wins Arlington and Alexandria.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Oh heck we’re half way to 300! To the moon baby!

[BoiseBoy]

What sites will have interactive county results w/o paywall?

I'm going to look at NBC, NYT, and Politico.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153?s=20

To be clear, I think Youngkin could very well win/people are becoming very bullish on TMac for poor reasons (though for some I think it might be counterbalancing an existing undue bullishness on Youngkin for equally poor reasons), but something is weird with that site. Not sure what "ballots cast" means but there is simply no way that only 1277 ballots were cast in North Beach in 2020 (according to DRA it cast 2507 votes for Senator in 2018) nor any way it was Trump+48 (again according to DRA it was Stewart+9 and Trump+25 in 2016). Is this referring to exclusively EDay votes?

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455613443957002244

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153?s=20

To be clear, I think Youngkin could very well win/people are becoming very bullish on TMac for poor reasons (though for some I think it might be counterbalancing an existing undue bullishness on Youngkin for equally poor reasons), but something is weird with that site. Not sure what "ballots cast" means but there is simply no way that only 1277 ballots were cast in North Beach in 2020 (according to DRA it cast 2507 votes for Senator in 2018) nor any way it was Trump+48 (again according to DRA it was Stewart+9 and Trump+25 in 2016).

It seems as if he is comparing to ED votes in 2020.

[Big Abraham]

Hot take; TMac wins Falls Church 😤😤

Now now, that's pretty bold. Here's an even bolder take: TMac wins Arlington and Alexandria.

Hotter take: Youngkin wins Lee County.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Hot take; TMac wins Falls Church 😤😤

Now now, that's pretty bold. Here's an even bolder take: TMac wins Arlington and Alexandria.

Hotter take: Youngkin wins Lee County.

Now this… this is spicy 🥵

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455613443957002244

10:00 AM

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153?s=20

To be clear, I think Youngkin could very well win/people are becoming very bullish on TMac for poor reasons (though for some I think it might be counterbalancing an existing undue bullishness on Youngkin for equally poor reasons), but something is weird with that site. Not sure what "ballots cast" means but there is simply no way that only 1277 ballots were cast in North Beach in 2020 (according to DRA it cast 2507 votes for Senator in 2018) nor any way it was Trump+48 (again according to DRA it was Stewart+9 and Trump+25 in 2016). Is this referring to exclusively EDay votes?

It was noted prior but the precinct results are bogus from 2020.  Almost all counties had "central" precincts for early ballots and that's how dems voted.  So for instance, the "precinct" level result would show a tiny amount of votes and it skewing to Trump.  But that's because 70% of the actual countywide votes were cast in a central precinct.  

So the site is wrong on two fronts:

- turnout was higher in 2020
- the percent voting for Trump was much lower

It is basically just pure disinformation.

[Big Abraham]

What sites will have interactive county results w/o paywall?

I'm going to look at NBC, NYT, and Politico.

2/3 of those have paywall.

[Adam Griffin]

Things starting to look very positive for Youngkin:

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153

Yeah game over that R areas in a D state are at 89% of 2017 turnout when a few D areas have already surpassed 100% turnout...

He’s claiming it’s out of presidential turnout, not 2017, as in on track to exceed 2020 numbers. Doesn’t sound believable lol

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455613443957002244

10:00 AM

To be fair, Falls Church met 72% of its 2017 vote at the same time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hot take; TMac wins Falls Church 😤😤

Now now, that's pretty bold. Here's an even bolder take: TMac wins Arlington and Alexandria.

Hotter take: Youngkin wins Lee County.

Hottest possible take: TMac wins Petersburg

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153?s=20

To be clear, I think Youngkin could very well win/people are becoming very bullish on TMac for poor reasons (though for some I think it might be counterbalancing an existing undue bullishness on Youngkin for equally poor reasons), but something is weird with that site. Not sure what "ballots cast" means but there is simply no way that only 1277 ballots were cast in North Beach in 2020 (according to DRA it cast 2507 votes for Senator in 2018) nor any way it was Trump+48 (again according to DRA it was Stewart+9 and Trump+25 in 2016).

It seems as if he is comparing to ED votes in 2020.

I see. Well, in that case, this site would seem to indicate wither that A. EDay votes are now basically the same as they were in 2020, meaning that with mail-ins turnout has now outstripped 2020 in this precinct (seems implausible), or (more likely in my view) B. that for some reason this site counts all votes for 2021 but just EDay for 2020.

[BG-NY]

What’s the best outcome narrative-wise for Biden and Trump out of VA in terms of turnout/margins in areas/with demos and overall result?

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153?s=20

To be clear, I think Youngkin could very well win/people are becoming very bullish on TMac for poor reasons (though for some I think it might be counterbalancing an existing undue bullishness on Youngkin for equally poor reasons), but something is weird with that site. Not sure what "ballots cast" means but there is simply no way that only 1277 ballots were cast in North Beach in 2020 (according to DRA it cast 2507 votes for Senator in 2018) nor any way it was Trump+48 (again according to DRA it was Stewart+9 and Trump+25 in 2016).

It seems as if he is comparing to ED votes in 2020.

I see. Well, in that case, this site would seem to indicate wither that A. EDay votes are now basically the same as they were in 2020, meaning that with mail-ins turnout has now outstripped 2020 in this precinct (seems implausible), or (more likely in my view) B. that for some reason this site counts all votes for 2021 but just EDay for 2020.

and/or C (these precincts are in rapidly-growing neighborhoods where there are a meaningfully larger number of voters than even just last year)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What’s the best outcome narrative-wise for Biden and Trump out of VA in terms of turnout/margins in areas/with demos and overall result?

If TMac wins, it'll show that that suburbs and college educated whites are sticking with the Dems.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1455614532097806341

If Buchanan's (and other SWVA) numbers stay so much lower than the state avg. it's going to be a clear sign that the GOPs attacks on early voting came back to haunt them.  Buchanan still hasn't reached the turnout percent that Fairfax County had in EARLY VOTING ALONE.