Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Every time I refresh this thread it grows by two or three pages and polls haven't even closed yet.

Two pages, three, is nothing compared to where it will be in the evening. Lol.

[Brittain33]

I can’t believe people are taking a victory lap now. Just wait for real results.

Noting the idea that turnout being low among Ds is not happening=/=taking a victory lap.
Noting that people who first voted for Obama in 2008 are now reliable D voters=/=taking a victory lap
The vast majority of people who have posted in this thread do not think this race is safe T-Mac.

I stand by my belief that trying to draw any inference, positive or negative, from turnout outside of Nevada EVs is a fool’s errand. People are definitely celebrating an uptick in McAuliffe’s outlook and I have seen this so many times before.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/mschlapp/status/1455532199541985290?s=20

I was told at my polling station I couldn’t vote without pants. Knowing what nudists think about pants, isn’t this just an illegal barrier to voting? But I can count on one thing our judges will do nothing.

This absolutely could constitute an illegal barrier if there was insufficient notice such that a person would show up without a mask and be turned away, effectively preventing them from voting entirely if it is prohibitively difficult for them to get their hands on a mask and return before polls close.

I know your post was a joke, but there is a much more reasonable inference of implied notice of a requirement of pants. Pants are required pretty much everywhere. At the other extreme, you'd have something like a poll worker requiring you to show them a printed picture of Elvis (with absolutely no explicit notice). This falls somewhere in the middle, probably closer to pants, but not close enough that I don't think it could be challenged if someone was really prevented from voting.

I've thought about this in the past year due to Covid. If you say a person has a right to vote and conditions on said right to vote are illegal as one party does, you can't put a mask mandate on a person attempting to vote. National Democrats so far have been smart enough to not tie "you must wear a mask" to vote because it completely undermines their argument against voter ID's.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Every time I refresh this thread it grows by two or three pages and polls haven't even closed yet.

Have you ever been on this website during an election?

[StateBoiler]

I’ve seen enough. TMac has won.

There you have it. LOW INFO VOTER has seen enough.

Tmac was always going to win this.

Well, he should. That we've gotten to this point it's up in the air shows the Republican is running ahead of expectations.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can’t believe people are taking a victory lap now. Just wait for real results.

Noting the idea that turnout being low among Ds is not happening=/=taking a victory lap.
Noting that people who first voted for Obama in 2008 are now reliable D voters=/=taking a victory lap
The vast majority of people who have posted in this thread do not think this race is safe T-Mac.

I stand by my belief that trying to draw any inference, positive or negative, from turnout outside of Nevada EVs is a fool’s errand. People are definitely celebrating an uptick in McAuliffe’s outlook and I have seen this so many times before.

Well, we will see what happens when polls closed I suppose.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455600792178679812?s=20

[Horus]

While I'm hoping he wins since Youngkin is anti vax by proxy (anti vaccine mandate), a 2 or so point McAuliffe victory is still pathetic for a state like Virginia.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Higher turnout was, indeed expected - "debunked" by this forum.

No. Nobody said Dems lack enthusiasm. Just that GOP had it higher. Probably, not true, but to early to confirm.

Aslo. No, Wasserman's track records are not bad - they are very good - nor he is somehow pro-R.

[Big Abraham]

It seems the only solution for the Virginia GOP at this point is to just raze the suburbs. VA is hardly different from NJ, also holding its governor's race today, in that there's pretty much no way to win because Republican support is only coming from wealthy exurbs and small towns/rural areas. And then is in a race where Youngkin has run away from Trump, received very favorable ratings on education (a huge issue right now especially in places like Loudoun County), where TMac is despised, and nobody wants to be associated with the Democratic Party at the national level.

[Non Swing Voter]

Higher turnout was, indeed expected - "debunked" by this forum.

No. Nobody said Dems lack enthusiasm. Just that GOP had it higher. Probably, not true, but to early to confirm.

Aslo. No, Wasserman's track records are not bad - they are very good - nor he is somehow pro-R.

Dave, is that you?

[2016]

Let's stop all this nonsense!!!

The determining factor in the VA Governor Race will be JOE BIDENS JOB APPROVAL. If he is at 46 % McAuliffe wins, if he is below that Youngkin wins.

[BigSerg]

While I'm hoping he wins since Youngkin is anti vax by proxy (anti vaccine mandate), a 2 or so point McAuliffe victory is still pathetic for a state like Virginia.

The only one who would look ridiculous if that happens is NSW who has always said T-Mac would win by 10

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

While I'm hoping he wins since Youngkin is anti vax by proxy (anti vaccine mandate), a 2 or so point McAuliffe victory is still pathetic for a state like Virginia.

True, but it will still deprive Fox News of being able to brag about it for the next six months, and it saves us from an embarrassing loss.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’ve seen enough. TMac has won.

There you have it. LOW INFO VOTER has seen enough.

Tmac was always going to win this.

Well, he should. That we've gotten to this point it's up in the air shows the Republican is running ahead of expectations.

You'd be right, if it wasn't for the Fox poll.
Rs have played the expectations game horribly.
The Fox poll is a gift that keeps giving...for Democrats.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I can’t believe people are taking a victory lap now. Just wait for real results.

Noting the idea that turnout being low among Ds is not happening=/=taking a victory lap.
Noting that people who first voted for Obama in 2008 are now reliable D voters=/=taking a victory lap
The vast majority of people who have posted in this thread do not think this race is safe T-Mac.

I stand by my belief that trying to draw any inference, positive or negative, from turnout outside of Nevada EVs is a fool’s errand. People are definitely celebrating an uptick in McAuliffe’s outlook and I have seen this so many times before.

Well, one can draw some inference, but not much, perhaps.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1455603001838690306

I think this is about 100% of 2017 turnout.

[Greedo punched first]

If-T-Mac wins, will Democrats still likely have a trifecta?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If-T-Mac wins, will Democrats still likely have a trifecta?

Most likely.

[2016]

I’ve seen enough. TMac has won.

There you have it. LOW INFO VOTER has seen enough.

Tmac was always going to win this.

Well, he should. That we've gotten to this point it's up in the air shows the Republican is running ahead of expectations.

You'd be right, if it wasn't for the Fox poll.
Rs have played the expectations game horribly.
The Fox poll is a gift that keeps giving...for Democrats.

Sabato would not have moved VA to Lean R if he wasn't seeing something!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I’ve seen enough. TMac has won.

There you have it. LOW INFO VOTER has seen enough.

Tmac was always going to win this.

Well, he should. That we've gotten to this point it's up in the air shows the Republican is running ahead of expectations.

You'd be right, if it wasn't for the Fox poll.
Rs have played the expectations game horribly.
The Fox poll is a gift that keeps giving...for Democrats.

Sabato would not have moved VA to Lean R if he wasn't seeing something!

Because Sabato has never been wrong about anything!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’ve seen enough. TMac has won.

There you have it. LOW INFO VOTER has seen enough.

Tmac was always going to win this.

Well, he should. That we've gotten to this point it's up in the air shows the Republican is running ahead of expectations.

You'd be right, if it wasn't for the Fox poll.
Rs have played the expectations game horribly.
The Fox poll is a gift that keeps giving...for Democrats.

Sabato would not have moved VA to Lean R if he wasn't seeing something!

Sabato himself said that he did not feel very certain about the outcome he pegged. He only rated it Lean R because of his "no tossups" policy.
And the deciding factor is reliant on a highly debatable view of how Biden's approvals will impact the race.

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac up to 59c on PredictIt now.  Can he break 60?

[Big Abraham]

If-T-Mac wins, will Democrats still likely have a trifecta?

Most likely.

So much for the "this is a referendum on Biden" narrative that many have been trying to push.

[Gass3268]

Youth vote looking decent

https://twitter.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1455605541875638280?s=21