Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[It’s so Joever]

Midday snapmap updates: Some better news for D's.
The Richmond area has a few left leaning posts, including what appears to be a burning of Youngkin signs(!?)
Another left leaning snap in Harrisonburg, while more right leaning posts were found in Louisa, Buchanan (populist!), and Franklin.

Some non partisan vote related posts were found in Clarke, Charlottesville, Galax, Danville, and Petersburg. Although these could go either way, in 2020 they seemed to correlate with better Biden performances in the area, although that likely is just correlation but not causation.

[LimoLiberal]

Republican stronghold at 31% turnout at 10 AM.

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455564150365696003

They had ~48% turnout in 2017.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455555355057041408?s=20

[Duke of York]

If Republicans held a primary and Chase had won which would have been likely we wouldn’t even be talking about a Republican victory.

[SnowLabrador]

Republican stronghold at 31% turnout at 10 AM.

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455564150365696003

They had ~48% turnout in 2017.

That can't be good.

[roxas11]

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

I think you may be right

It's possible that Glenn Youngkin can still pull this off, but I am simply not seeing the kind of turnout that makes me think he can win this. Right now republican should be doing way better than they currently are and their turnout should be though the roof but so far that is not what we are seeing

now it's still early and who who knows, maybe as the day goes on, things will look better Republicans and Glenn Youngkin will go on to win this election, but as of right now it is starting to look like a narrow McAuliffe win to me

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455557949787680773

Definite pattern emerging in NOVA.  Inner NOVA (Alexandria (city part), Arlington, Falls Church, inner Fairfax) are seeing very high turnout compared to outer NOVA.  Dems still want to see both high though.

Wild card seems to be PWC where early turnout was surprisingly high.  Not sure how turnout is today though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have long predicted McAuliffe+4. I expect that sort of result tonight.

[lfromnj]

Yeah Rockingham is sorta similar to Albemarle except shifted like 60 points red. It has the college town of Harrisonburg which is much more moderate than Charlottesville and Rockingham is deep red.

[Not Me, Us]

Limoliberal posting that guy is giving me 2017 flashbacks

This whole election season has felt very nostalgic for me. The 2017 elections were the first non-presidential races I followed closely. I even joined Atlas just to read news and discussions about VA.

[lfromnj]

Bruh... If this is true... I wish
https://twitter.com/nedryun/status/1455555600990056452?s=20

This seems unlikely as well-

Early modeled vote was 603K D, 352K R, 183K I.

Even if you gave Youngkin a +20% lead on those 183K Is, assuming both Ds and Rs mainly vote their party, you still get a +20% lead for Ds (676K vs. 462K out of 1.14M)

The modeled vote is certainly garbage based on the conservative Richmond exurbs.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455550501853057024

I believe Loudoun was at 118,000 turnout in 2017.  

Now sitting at 84,000.  Seems very likely to surpass 2017 turnout.  Though that's to be expected even if turnout is lower as there is such a huge growth in registered voters.  

[Chips]

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

I think you may be right

It's possible that Glenn Youngkin can still pull this off, but I am simply not seeing the kind of turnout that makes me think he can win this. Right now republican should be doing way better than they currently are and their turnout should be though the roof but so far that is not what we are seeing

now it's still early and who who knows, maybe as the day goes on, things will look better Republicans and Glenn Youngkin will go on to win this election, but as of right now it is starting to look like a narrow McAuliffe win to me

True. No one should be confident of anything. There's a ton of votes still to be counted and anything can still happen but I do have one side as a slight favorite based on said data.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455550501853057024

I believe Loudoun was at 118,000 turnout in 2017. 

Now sitting at 84,000.  Seems very likely to surpass 2017 turnout.  Though that's to be expected even if turnout is lower as there is such a huge growth in registered voters. 

Any chance turnout % goes up due to the focus on the county in Beltway media?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So, forgive me if I missed it, but do we have a final count on EV + mail?

[Pollster]

One thing that is important to remember: replicating Youngkin's playbook (win or lose) will be difficult for Republicans across the country who will not have his advantage of running in/winning a non-primary nomination contest that was designed to ensure a candidate like him emerged.

[It’s so Joever]

Loudoun voting scares me. Maybe all the controversy depressed D voters?

[BigSerg]

"The kiss of death"
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1455569874961448967?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"The kiss of death"
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1455569874961448967?s=20

Virginia was one of the states Hillary proved to be a good fit for, if that really matters.

[Calthrina950]

"The kiss of death"
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1455569874961448967?s=20

McAuliffe has been affiliated with the Clintons for decades, so I'm not surprised that she is supporting him.

[kwabbit]

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

I think you may be right

It's possible that Glenn Youngkin can still pull this off, but I am simply not seeing the kind of turnout that makes me think he can win this. Right now republican should be doing way better than they currently are and their turnout should be though the roof but so far that is not what we are seeing

now it's still early and who who knows, maybe as the day goes on, things will look better Republicans and Glenn Youngkin will go on to win this election, but as of right now it is starting to look like a narrow McAuliffe win to me

This election was never about turnout in R base areas, especially given it’s an off year election. The GOP base is simply just not big enough where the GOP can win by turning them out. Youngkin’s goal has always been to peel off suburbanites in the metros that will have relatively high turnout, something that we can’t know the result of into the votes are counted.

Prognostication based on turnout is essentially useless. High turnout in the metros is more likely than not to be good for Dems, but the correlation is probably around .10 lol.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455550501853057024

I believe Loudoun was at 118,000 turnout in 2017. 

Now sitting at 84,000.  Seems very likely to surpass 2017 turnout.  Though that's to be expected even if turnout is lower as there is such a huge growth in registered voters. 

Any chance turnout % goes up due to the focus on the county in Beltway media?

Perhaps.  It looks to me like it will be similar percent turnout to 2017 but will result in a higher number of total votes due to population growth.  That should be ok for Dems as the population growth is all in Dem leaning areas.  But we'll see.

[LimoLiberal]

Falls Church is a pretty good sign for TMac. Well on track to reach and probably surpass 2017 #s in one of the most white lib places.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/wetzler_jessica/status/1455551950766886917

FYI Bergton is the 2nd reddest precinct in the county at 83.1% Trump ,Reddest is next door at 83.5%. It is the NW corner of the county.

[Non Swing Voter]

Hmm. Seems like early voting might be indicating a slight McAuliffe win. It's still way too early to tell as to who will ultimately come out on top, But I think the early voting and turnout reports coming in are pointing to a narrow McAuliffe victory at the moment.

I think you may be right

It's possible that Glenn Youngkin can still pull this off, but I am simply not seeing the kind of turnout that makes me think he can win this. Right now republican should be doing way better than they currently are and their turnout should be though the roof but so far that is not what we are seeing

now it's still early and who who knows, maybe as the day goes on, things will look better Republicans and Glenn Youngkin will go on to win this election, but as of right now it is starting to look like a narrow McAuliffe win to me

This election was never about turnout in R base areas, especially given it’s an off year election. The GOP base is simply just not big enough where the GOP can win by turning them out. Youngkin’s goal has always been to peel off suburbanites in the metros that will have relatively high turnout, something that we can’t know the result of into the votes are counted.

Prognostication based on turnout is essentially useless. High turnout in the metros is more likely than not to be good for Dems, but the correlation is probably around .10 lol.

It's wishful thinking to think that elevated turnout in inner NOVA is anything but bad news for Youngkin.  Even if he peeled off a few percent, these areas consistently go Dem by 50 or 60 points.