Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[roxas11]

My God tweets need to be banned from this thread.

While I don't mind most of the tweets I will admit that I do roll my eyes every time I see someone posting a tweet hyping up crowd sizes or posting a tweet that supposedly claims that a candidate has great internal polls without actually showing us the actual poll so that we can see for ourselves

Now to be clear, I'm not just picking on the republicans for doing this because I have also seen the Dems do it in 2020. I have just never been a fan of either party hyping up internal polls or crowd sizes nor do I take that kind of talk seriously at all

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MaryMargOlohan/status/1455340686182584327?s=20

https://twitter.com/justinhintontv/status/1455340064452587522?s=20

Doesn't look all that big to me....

Idk, it's definitely bigger than TMac's "rally", but as other users have already said, rallies don't matter

T-Mac's final rally looks like the biggest one he's had since the Biden rally, just FYI. lmao but in reality, crowd size means nothing

https://twitter.com/MarkHerringVA/status/1455323196362739716

[wbrocks67]

I do think it's curious that Q-pac likely spiked their poll.

Makes me think it might've had a T-Mac lead, because if they found a Youngkin lead of like +6, it wouldn't be the only one, since Fox also had one.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

"X didn't publish poll - must be a good news for T-Mac!". You basically unskew the non-existence of a poll!  

[MillennialModerate]

Rain in the forecast for NoVA...

I’ve seen enough …..

[roxas11]

I do think it's curious that Q-pac likely spiked their poll.

Makes me think it might've had a T-Mac lead, because if they found a Youngkin lead of like +6, it wouldn't be the only one, since Fox also had one.

The poll obviously did not have Youngkin leading and this the main reason why they will never release it. Had that poll showed that Youngkin was winning there would be no reason at all not to put it out.

It's a actually smart move on their part because they won't have to be the 1 major poll that takes a risk and shows different results compared to everyone else. Plus no matter who wins, they can now always fall back on the idea there did not put out any poll at the end and therefore nobody can say they got the race wrong

[wbrocks67]

Early votes and mail ballots are being counted as we speak, so both should be among the first batches to dump tonight.

Should also be noted that initial exit polls may skew R a bit. The initial CA exit poll for example had Biden +15 approval, but ended up at +23 approval by the end of it.

But I'm gonna try and compile exit poll data for 2016-present to compare to initials tonight just for fun

[wbrocks67]

"X didn't publish poll - must be a good news for T-Mac!". You basically unskew the non-existence of a poll!  

Why would they spike a Youngkin lead when most polls we've gotten in recent days either have a low Youngkin lead or Fox with a +8 Youngkin lead? Media says he has the 'momentum', so a T-Mac lead would certainly go more against the grain

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The most interesting thing here imo is that Youngkin is an overhyped candidate who has run an absolutely terrible campaign for a VA statewide candidate, but the environment is so toxic for Democrats that it may not even matter despite Virginia being a Safe D state.  I can understand in the LG race b/c it’s much lower profile (which has led to weak Republicans like Jackson beating - admittedly very low - expectations in the past), but this is a pretty alarming development.  I really hope the polls are wrong and underestimating us here or it is gonna be a really ugly cycle.

[roxas11]

"X didn't publish poll - must be a good news for T-Mac!". You basically unskew the non-existence of a poll!  

I dont feel that way at all

It's more likely that Quinnipiac had a poll that showed some pretty crazy results that they themselves were not confident about nor did they want to take the risk by putting the poll out just 24 hours before an election

even if the poll had showed a 80 point lead for terry mcauliffe that does not mean its automatically good news for terry mcauliffe, it just means the Quinnipiac polls are now complete trash that should not be taken seriously by anyone lol

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

"X didn't publish poll - must be a good news for T-Mac!". You basically unskew the non-existence of a poll!  

Why would they spike a Youngkin lead when most polls we've gotten in recent days either have a low Youngkin lead or Fox with a +8 Youngkin lead? Media says he has the 'momentum', so a T-Mac lead would certainly go more against the grain

You can apply same logic and say they had Youngkin +15.

The main point, though, that there is 0 (zero) evidence, they've "spiked their poll", but you pretend, that it's almost a fact. "likely". Eh, whatever.

[It’s so Joever]

Quinnipiac had Blanding leading and were forced to not post it by the cabal.

[It’s so Joever]

Friendly reminder TO NOT COMPARE COUNTIES TO PAST ELECTIONS UNTIL ALL THE VOTE IS IN.
I repeat, do not extrapolate from a county with 60% of the vote in.
Otherwise you will be Alben Barkley 2020.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Quinnipiac had Blanding leading and were forced to not post it by the cabal.

Wake up sheeple! Blanding is the real front runner!

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’m making popcorn! Pre-order now!

[wbrocks67]

Here is past election exit polls for VA:

MEN
2016: R+9
2017: R+2
2018: R+1
2020: D+1

FEMALES
2016: D+17
2017: D+22
2018: D+31
2020: D+23

18-29
2016: D+18
2017: D+39
2018: D+36
2020: D+29

30-44
2016: D+13
2017: D+24
2018: D+23
2020: D+20

45-64
2016: R+3
2017: R+1
2018: D+5
2020: D+5

65+
2016: R+7
2017: R+6
2018: D+14
2020: R+9

Whites
2016 (67%): R+24
2017 (67%): R+15
2018 (68%): R+10
2020 (67%): R+8

Blacks
2016 (21%): D+79
2017 (20%): D+75
2018 (22%): D+84
2020 (18%): D+79

Latino
2016 (6%): D+35
2017 (6%): D+35
2018 (6%): n/a
2020 (7%): D+25

White College+
2016: R+4
2017: D+3
2018: D+4
2020: D+7

Democrats
2016 (40%): D+86
2017 (41%): D+94
2018 (38%): D+92
2020 (36%): D+92

Republicans
2016 (33%): R+82
2017 (30%): R+91
2018 (31%): R+78
2020 (34%): R+81

Indies
2016 (26%): R+5
2017 (28%): R+3
2018 (31%): D+14
2020 (30%): D+19

[wbrocks67]

What's interesting to me most is the Whites -

Whites
2016 (67%): R+24
2017 (67%): R+15
2018 (68%): R+10
2020 (67%): R+8

Most polls this year have expected Whites to be 70-72% of the electorate, which would be more than the 4 most recent elections.

Depends on black turnout too. They've gone from as low as 18% but as high as 22%.

[wbrocks67]

"X didn't publish poll - must be a good news for T-Mac!". You basically unskew the non-existence of a poll!  

Why would they spike a Youngkin lead when most polls we've gotten in recent days either have a low Youngkin lead or Fox with a +8 Youngkin lead? Media says he has the 'momentum', so a T-Mac lead would certainly go more against the grain

You can apply same logic and say they had Youngkin +15.

The main point, though, that there is 0 (zero) evidence, they've "spiked their poll", but you pretend, that it's almost a fact. "likely". Eh, whatever.

Dude put me on ignore if you're that upset over my posts.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Friendly reminder TO NOT COMPARE COUNTIES TO PAST ELECTIONS UNTIL ALL THE VOTE IS IN.
I repeat, do not extrapolate from a county with 60% of the vote in.
Otherwise you will be Alben Barkley 2020.

Shut up, killjoy!


Flashback from 2017https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455268589913710596

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Let's flash back to Election Day 2017, when certain "pundits" wrote of "exit poll data" that "didn't look good for Northam"....at midday.  

Be wary of your sources and use common sense, folks

(Now, back to reading about children who were kidnapped by Bigfoot.)

[wbrocks67]

Turnout reports begin!

Almost 200 voters at Falls Church at 7am

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1455493940975706114

[wbrocks67]

Let's flash back to Election Day 2017, when certain "pundits" wrote of "exit poll data" that "didn't look good for Northam"....at midday.  

Be wary of your sources and use common sense, folks

(Now, back to reading about children who were kidnapped by Bigfoot.)

Yeah, I explicitly remember Ben Tribbet on election day being like

> Morning: looks great for Northam!
> Midday: omg! looks terrible Northam!
> afternoon: omg! looks great for northam!

i was like wut

[Boobs]

It’s raining in NoVA today, if anyone cared.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s raining in NoVA today, if anyone cared.

The weather says it is but so far it’s dry.
I will be waking today outside for a while in DC so it best not start soon.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It’s raining in NoVA today, if anyone cared.

The weather says it is but so far it’s dry.

WEATHER FRAUD!