Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Spent a bit of time with all the polling I could get my hands on (both public and private) and reconciled it with early voting indicators, some voter file analysis, roughshod modeling, and general observations of fundamentals. Came down with the takeaway that Youngkin can win, but he'll need one/both of a) a Democratic turnout collapse that early voting indicates is not happening and b) a sizeable improvement with independent and softer Democratic voters that polling indicates is possible but a tall order.

One thing that struck me is that Youngkin's best polls aren't actually showing this improvement. Rather, they're showing him gaining among Black voters and non-college whites. Its easy to dismiss this (Black voters being historically inelastic and non-college whites already supporting Republicans in massive numbers) and I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed, but there are also some explanations that are quite plausible:
     

• The increasing educational/religious polarization is starting to take hold of Black voters in a manner similar to Hispanic voters last cycle.
• Educational polarization is superseding urban/rural polarization among white voters, and non-college whites in urban areas (there are quite a few in VA) are abandoning Democrats.
• The remaining Democratic non-college white voters are planning to sit this election out.

Again, think it's much more likely these polls are just highly flawed and that McAuliffe/Youngkin's coalitions will be par for the course and unremarkable. But on the off chance they're actually just ahead of the curve and picking up on a burgeoning realignment, think it could have fascinating implications for the rest of the decade and could certainly lead to some hilarious dummymanders down the line.

Thanks, but why do you think, that "I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed"? Historical data or anything else?

I mean, as you said, there were some realignments among Latinos in 2016/2020 [and Blacks in 2020]. Pre-election polls did indicate that, but was disregard, because "muh, they can't vote for Trump LMAO".

[Non Swing Voter]

Spent a bit of time with all the polling I could get my hands on (both public and private) and reconciled it with early voting indicators, some voter file analysis, roughshod modeling, and general observations of fundamentals. Came down with the takeaway that Youngkin can win, but he'll need one/both of a) a Democratic turnout collapse that early voting indicates is not happening and b) a sizeable improvement with independent and softer Democratic voters that polling indicates is possible but a tall order.

One thing that struck me is that Youngkin's best polls aren't actually showing this improvement. Rather, they're showing him gaining among Black voters and non-college whites. Its easy to dismiss this (Black voters being historically inelastic and non-college whites already supporting Republicans in massive numbers) and I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed, but there are also some explanations that are quite plausible:
     

• The increasing educational/religious polarization is starting to take hold of Black voters in a manner similar to Hispanic voters last cycle.
• Educational polarization is superseding urban/rural polarization among white voters, and non-college whites in urban areas (there are quite a few in VA) are abandoning Democrats.
• The remaining Democratic non-college white voters are planning to sit this election out.

Again, think it's much more likely these polls are just highly flawed and that McAuliffe/Youngkin's coalitions will be par for the course and unremarkable. But on the off chance they're actually just ahead of the curve and picking up on a burgeoning realignment, think it could have fascinating implications for the rest of the decade and could certainly lead to some hilarious dummymanders down the line.

This lines up with my expectations.  So what do you think the margin will be? 

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Spent a bit of time with all the polling I could get my hands on (both public and private) and reconciled it with early voting indicators, some voter file analysis, roughshod modeling, and general observations of fundamentals. Came down with the takeaway that Youngkin can win, but he'll need one/both of a) a Democratic turnout collapse that early voting indicates is not happening and b) a sizeable improvement with independent and softer Democratic voters that polling indicates is possible but a tall order.

One thing that struck me is that Youngkin's best polls aren't actually showing this improvement. Rather, they're showing him gaining among Black voters and non-college whites. Its easy to dismiss this (Black voters being historically inelastic and non-college whites already supporting Republicans in massive numbers) and I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed, but there are also some explanations that are quite plausible:
     

• The increasing educational/religious polarization is starting to take hold of Black voters in a manner similar to Hispanic voters last cycle.
• Educational polarization is superseding urban/rural polarization among white voters, and non-college whites in urban areas (there are quite a few in VA) are abandoning Democrats.
• The remaining Democratic non-college white voters are planning to sit this election out.

Again, think it's much more likely these polls are just highly flawed and that McAuliffe/Youngkin's coalitions will be par for the course and unremarkable. But on the off chance they're actually just ahead of the curve and picking up on a burgeoning realignment, think it could have fascinating implications for the rest of the decade and could certainly lead to some hilarious dummymanders down the line.

Just want to say I love your posts and appreciate your insights.

Has the private polling you've seen lined up with what we're seeing in the public polls?

Indeed, truly a gift to have a pollster among us.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Spent a bit of time with all the polling I could get my hands on (both public and private) and reconciled it with early voting indicators, some voter file analysis, roughshod modeling, and general observations of fundamentals. Came down with the takeaway that Youngkin can win, but he'll need one/both of a) a Democratic turnout collapse that early voting indicates is not happening and b) a sizeable improvement with independent and softer Democratic voters that polling indicates is possible but a tall order.

One thing that struck me is that Youngkin's best polls aren't actually showing this improvement. Rather, they're showing him gaining among Black voters and non-college whites. Its easy to dismiss this (Black voters being historically inelastic and non-college whites already supporting Republicans in massive numbers) and I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed, but there are also some explanations that are quite plausible:
    

• The increasing educational/religious polarization is starting to take hold of Black voters in a manner similar to Hispanic voters last cycle.
• Educational polarization is superseding urban/rural polarization among white voters, and non-college whites in urban areas (there are quite a few in VA) are abandoning Democrats.
• The remaining Democratic non-college white voters are planning to sit this election out.

Again, think it's much more likely these polls are just highly flawed and that McAuliffe/Youngkin's coalitions will be par for the course and unremarkable. But on the off chance they're actually just ahead of the curve and picking up on a burgeoning realignment, think it could have fascinating implications for the rest of the decade and could certainly lead to some hilarious dummymanders down the line.

Any insight on Hispanic/Asian patterns of support/voting preferences? (assuming subsamples are representative and not too small to be analyzed)

Has Youngkin actually made some noticeable progress (compared to past Republican performances) among them or is it more of a mirage?

In the absence of actual polling data, the anecdotes I’ve seen in this thread seem to reflect pre-existing, baseline levels of R support among adult Asian immigrants.

FWIW it seems like NoVA Latinos are mostly not of Mexican heritage, but rather Salvadoran and Peruvian. 

[roxas11]

Did nobody on this board actually research the “book banning” thing? It’s not actually true

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1453160723094327298

Where is the book banning thing coming from?

This issue involves mcauliffe vetoing a bipartisan bill.

Wapo has a good write up on it

I have to give Philip Melanchthon Wegmann some credit he does know how to spin this better than Glenn Youngkin does

For example, in his tweet he mostly focuses on the bill that would would've allowed parents to let their children opt-out of such material and view alternative texts instead.

But he leaves out the fact that Laura Murphy herself did try to ban the book as The Washington Post reported in 2013. She also tried and failed to get the book dropped entirely from the AP English curriculum after bringing the matter to the superintendent.

It was only after she had failed to get the book removed that she started working to force the entire state of Virginia to change its reading policies to mirror “family life” sex Ed in which parents are able to receive notice before certain topics come up and remove their children from the class.

[VBM]

Will Dems stop saying “Latinx” if TMac loses?

[SnowLabrador]

So there won't be a Virginia needle next week. That sucks.

[wbrocks67]

So there won't be a Virginia needle next week. That sucks.

Agreed. It was so on point the night of GA 2021 too.

[cinyc]

So there won't be a Virginia needle next week. That sucks.

But we will have an interactive precinct (and more) livemap on RRHElections, data willing.

[Pollster]

Just want to say I love your posts and appreciate your insights.

Thank you

Has the private polling you've seen lined up with what we're seeing in the public polls?

In some ways, but I haven't had access to much as we didn't end up getting a ton of work in VA.

[Pollster]

Thanks, but why do you think, that "I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed"? Historical data or anything else?

I mean, as you said, there were some realignments among Latinos in 2016/2020 [and Blacks in 2020]. Pre-election polls did indicate that, but was disregard, because "muh, they can't vote for Trump LMAO".

A lot of Youngkin's best polls have been from unreliable outlets with shoddy methodology, and the ones that weren't from unreliable outlets (mostly Monmouth, which is usually methodologically rigorous) have had some modeling quirks, small sample sizes, and a history of badly misreading Virginia.

[Matty]

What are we thinking about chesterfield county?

M or Y?

[cinyc]

Thanks, but why do you think, that "I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed"? Historical data or anything else?

I mean, as you said, there were some realignments among Latinos in 2016/2020 [and Blacks in 2020]. Pre-election polls did indicate that, but was disregard, because "muh, they can't vote for Trump LMAO".

A lot of Youngkin's best polls have been from unreliable outlets with shoddy methodology, and the ones that weren't from unreliable outlets (mostly Monmouth, which is usually methodologically rigorous) have had some modeling quirks, small sample sizes, and a history of badly misreading Virginia.

All the polls are pretty much saying the same thing, though. It's a close race.

[Pollster]

Spent a bit of time with all the polling I could get my hands on (both public and private) and reconciled it with early voting indicators, some voter file analysis, roughshod modeling, and general observations of fundamentals. Came down with the takeaway that Youngkin can win, but he'll need one/both of a) a Democratic turnout collapse that early voting indicates is not happening and b) a sizeable improvement with independent and softer Democratic voters that polling indicates is possible but a tall order.

One thing that struck me is that Youngkin's best polls aren't actually showing this improvement. Rather, they're showing him gaining among Black voters and non-college whites. Its easy to dismiss this (Black voters being historically inelastic and non-college whites already supporting Republicans in massive numbers) and I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed, but there are also some explanations that are quite plausible:
     

• The increasing educational/religious polarization is starting to take hold of Black voters in a manner similar to Hispanic voters last cycle.
• Educational polarization is superseding urban/rural polarization among white voters, and non-college whites in urban areas (there are quite a few in VA) are abandoning Democrats.
• The remaining Democratic non-college white voters are planning to sit this election out.

Again, think it's much more likely these polls are just highly flawed and that McAuliffe/Youngkin's coalitions will be par for the course and unremarkable. But on the off chance they're actually just ahead of the curve and picking up on a burgeoning realignment, think it could have fascinating implications for the rest of the decade and could certainly lead to some hilarious dummymanders down the line.

This lines up with my expectations.  So what do you think the margin will be? 

Probably McAuliffe by Hillary's margin + roughly 60% of the 2016 third party vote (which went overwhelmingly for Northam/Biden but will probably splinter a bit in a less favorable climate for Democrats). McAuliffe +6 maybe? Not holding my breath on a margin prediction though.

[Pollster]

Spent a bit of time with all the polling I could get my hands on (both public and private) and reconciled it with early voting indicators, some voter file analysis, roughshod modeling, and general observations of fundamentals. Came down with the takeaway that Youngkin can win, but he'll need one/both of a) a Democratic turnout collapse that early voting indicates is not happening and b) a sizeable improvement with independent and softer Democratic voters that polling indicates is possible but a tall order.

One thing that struck me is that Youngkin's best polls aren't actually showing this improvement. Rather, they're showing him gaining among Black voters and non-college whites. Its easy to dismiss this (Black voters being historically inelastic and non-college whites already supporting Republicans in massive numbers) and I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed, but there are also some explanations that are quite plausible:
    

• The increasing educational/religious polarization is starting to take hold of Black voters in a manner similar to Hispanic voters last cycle.
• Educational polarization is superseding urban/rural polarization among white voters, and non-college whites in urban areas (there are quite a few in VA) are abandoning Democrats.
• The remaining Democratic non-college white voters are planning to sit this election out.

Again, think it's much more likely these polls are just highly flawed and that McAuliffe/Youngkin's coalitions will be par for the course and unremarkable. But on the off chance they're actually just ahead of the curve and picking up on a burgeoning realignment, think it could have fascinating implications for the rest of the decade and could certainly lead to some hilarious dummymanders down the line.

Any insight on Hispanic/Asian patterns of support/voting preferences? (assuming subsamples are representative and not too small to be analyzed)

Has Youngkin actually made some noticeable progress (compared to past Republican performances) among them or is it more of a mirage?

Asian subsamples have been way too small. Hispanics seem to be at the baseline level of two-party support that you would expect, though those sample sizes are small as well.

I'll also note that "baseline level" for Hispanics for me is referring to Clinton/Biden numbers. Obama's lauded 2012 overperformance with Hispanics I think was misanalysed and generated a fundamental misunderstanding of the Hispanic electorate among the largely white political consultant/pundit class who, in a tacitly racist and "soft bigotry of low expectations" way misattributed their voting motivations to immigration* and culture issues despite scores of research showing that they were persuadable to populist, working-class economic arguments not dissimilar from the white working class voters that Romney was also a notoriously poor fit for** and Obama similarly overperformed with. Sanders' success with Hispanics in 2020 (when his campaign was far more focused on populist economics than 2016) underscores this. And this doesn't even touch on the gender, educational, generational, nationality, born in America/born abroad, and religiosity factors that are diverse within the Hispanic community and make them far more elastic politically than many believe/are willing to admit.

*This is not to suggest that immigration is not important to Hispanic voters, rather that it is not a primary driver of their voting behavior in numbers any higher than other racial groups. Focus groups have actually found that a significant (though certainly not monolithic) number of Hispanic voters have an "I'm already here, what do I care?" mentality about the issue, while others are sympathetic to the Democratic position but have differing thresholds for when they consider politicians to be genuine on the issue or just pandering to them.

**Romney's "self-deportation" comment - one of the few times immigration actually entered the national conversation in a major way during the 2012 general election campaign - probably hurt him more because it reinforced the image of him as an out of touch plutocrat with no basic understanding of the way normal people think about issues rather than because of the actual position he was taking. Trump himself even noted this after Romney's defeat.

[Pollster]

Thanks, but why do you think, that "I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed"? Historical data or anything else?

I mean, as you said, there were some realignments among Latinos in 2016/2020 [and Blacks in 2020]. Pre-election polls did indicate that, but was disregard, because "muh, they can't vote for Trump LMAO".

A lot of Youngkin's best polls have been from unreliable outlets with shoddy methodology, and the ones that weren't from unreliable outlets (mostly Monmouth, which is usually methodologically rigorous) have had some modeling quirks, small sample sizes, and a history of badly misreading Virginia.

All the polls are pretty much saying the same thing, though. It's a close race.

This is often a sign of herding - if the race were close, you'd expect a credible McAuliffe +11 or Youngkin +5 poll here or there, for example.

Margins, as I obnoxiously shout repetitively on this forum, are often misleading and not the ideal way to interpret polling. Youngkin has had serious trouble cracking 45% of the vote in virtually all credible polls. This is probably an accurate measurement of his overall support, and is the general reason for the "needs a Dem turnout collapse" side of my analysis (45% is enough to win if a good chunk of the remaining 55% don't show up or are efficiently divided).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pollster: thanks very much for your information and insightful analysis, which has been a breath of fresh air compared to most of this thread.

[THG]

https://www.twitter.com/realLizUSA/status/1453447843117735937

Trump is an egomaniac and he’s going to purposely sabotage Youngkin so if he loses, he can say it’s because he didn’t embrace Trump enough.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/1453427317800411139?s=20

[Devils30]

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-virginia-2655412186/

Let's hope it happens! Hard to see any better gift to TMac.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1453402504679596044

Youngkin losing hope...

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/1453427317800411139?s=20

Given that Youngkin is at 46% in the average, which is just 1 more than 45, seems like an... odd comparison

[wbrocks67]

Wait, Trump actually can't be going to VA right? Is he really going to sabotage Youngkin's campaign?

Even the "talk" of Trump coming reinserts himself into this campaign.

https://twitter.com/TayFromCA/status/1453452631276404742

[Person Man]

Wait, Trump actually can't be going to VA right? Is he really going to sabotage Youngkin's campaign?

Even the "talk" of Trump coming reinserts himself into this campaign.

https://twitter.com/TayFromCA/status/1453452631276404742

So whatever happens on Tuesday, it will be put on Trump.

[BigSerg]

Wait, Trump actually can't be going to VA right? Is he really going to sabotage Youngkin's campaign?

Even the "talk" of Trump coming reinserts himself into this campaign.

https://twitter.com/TayFromCA/status/1453452631276404742

No, "soon" does not mean that he will go immediately to campaign