Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Hollywood]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

That doesn't indicate much. How many people did you talk too?

Like five or six. Most of them didn't pick up.

Is the McAullife campaign just having you call random numbers?   They should be having you call those who were targeted in 2020 and said they were voting for Biden.

I would imagine it's the latter, unless they're really stupid. Either way, it's rather sobering. I really think this race is a tossup.

Hard to imagine that someone who voted for Biden would cuss you out for calling from the McAuliffe campaign.

I can't imagine his organization targeting anything but Likely D Biden voters at this point.  They usually switch over to lean D and undecideds during the final week of the election. 

I remember when I worked for a PAC re-electing Corzine after Obama had won in 2008.  We had tons of new voter data from the Obama 2.0 campaign helping us target lean Ds.  I was berated on the phones every single day by Democrats and lean D independents that were sick tax increases.  It's all they cared about. We made no headway in suburban communities.  Didn't matter if they were African American, Hispanic or White. 

Lol I find it very hard to believe you would ever work for a Democrat.

I was just finishing college at the time, and I needed a job.  I was also elected VP of the Democrat Party at my school, and held debate events and a campus television show with Republicans.  I probably could have made a career in politics with the Democrat Party after the 2009 election.  I was very good at it.  My boss used me for every important task.  As soon as the 2009 race ended, he wanted me to go with him to Texas to start working on groundwork for the 2010 campaign. 

People change man.  Also I had a libertarian and green party phase, but the former literally believed in having no government and open borders, and the latter had no idea how to organize or strategize.   

[Person Man]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

That doesn't indicate much. How many people did you talk too?

Like five or six. Most of them didn't pick up.

Is the McAullife campaign just having you call random numbers?   They should be having you call those who were targeted in 2020 and said they were voting for Biden.

I would imagine it's the latter, unless they're really stupid. Either way, it's rather sobering. I really think this race is a tossup.

Hard to imagine that someone who voted for Biden would cuss you out for calling from the McAuliffe campaign.

I can't imagine his organization targeting anything but Likely D Biden voters at this point.  They usually switch over to lean D and undecideds during the final week of the election.  

I remember when I worked for a PAC re-electing Corzine after Obama had won in 2008.  We had tons of new voter data from the Obama 2.0 campaign helping us target lean Ds.  I was berated on the phones every single day by Democrats and lean D independents that were sick tax increases.  It's all they cared about. We made no headway in suburban communities.  Didn't matter if they were African American, Hispanic or White.  

Lol I find it very hard to believe you would ever work for a Democrat.

I was just finishing college at the time, and I needed a job.  I was also elected VP of the Democrat Party at my school, and held debate events and a campus television show with Republicans.  I probably could have made a career in politics with the Democrat Party after the 2009 election.  I was very good at it.  My boss used me for every important task.  As soon as the 2009 race ended, he wanted me to go with him to Texas to start working on groundwork for the 2010 campaign.  

People change man.  Also I had a libertarian and green party phase, but the former literally believed in having no government and open borders, and the latter had no idea how to organize or strategize.    

I understand that people change but it really brings things into question if you do a political 180 that quickly. Not that there has to be some nefarious reason why. Let’s get back to the governor’s race.

[Woody]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

Hahaha.. maybe they don't want to listen to some guy from MA telling them what's in their best interests.

Anyways, in other news:

https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1451584587344367617

[wbrocks67]

I've phonebanked for Ds before, and even the week of, you're still calling the reliable D base to make sure they're voting or have voted already, so I don't know what to make of Snow Labrador's post, if it's even true.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

So is this your first time working in politics then? When I worked for one I had someone call and tell me that Obama paid fauci with taxpayer money to go to Wuhan and created coronavirus…

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

@xingkerui

Another "advice" is to read, what experts think is going on. I've already linked to Cook, whose rating was dismissed by forum expert wbrock as "click-bate" (it's doubtful, he or she has even read it, though), falsely claiming they had bad records. Here is another one
https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/1451622826885009410

But I'm sure, you'll discard it as click-bate/doomerism whatever, will ya?

[roxas11]

I've phonebanked for Ds before, and even the week of, you're still calling the reliable D base to make sure they're voting or have voted already, so I don't know what to make of Snow Labrador's post, if it's even true.

I also know people that phonebanked for Ds and like you they also said that a week before the election, they mainly focused on calling to remind people who have already said they will support the Dems to come out and vote because At this stage in the race it is mainly about getting your hardcore base out and not tying to find potential new voters

So the idea that anyone would be phonebanking for the Dems at this point and just randomly run across a bunch Glenn youngkin supporters seems odd and very unlikely to me.

[roxas11]

@xingkerui

Another "advice" is to read, what experts think is going on. I've already linked to Cook, whose rating was dismissed by forum expert wbrock as "click-bate" (it's doubtful, he or she has even read it, though), falsely claiming they had bad records. Here is another one
https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/1451622826885009410

But I'm sure, you'll discard it as click-bate/doomerism whatever, will ya?

The article is basically saying that it is still an uphill battle for the Republicans and Dems still have the advantage. It really didn't tell us anything that we did not already know nor did they really convince me that race has fundamentally changed all that much

If anything the main takeaway from this article for me is that despite everything that has gone wrong for dems Glenn Youngkin is still failing to either take the lead or at least turn the race into a tossup. I'm sorry, but at this point in the race neither Glenn Youngkin or his supporters should be celebrating the fact that he is still behind Terry Mcauliffe.

The Republicans can spin it as much as they like, but at some point being behind is not going to cut it for Glenn Youngkin if he really wants to win this. ​The reality for Youngkin is that if he is still failing to take the lead in this race a few days from now than it is probably over for him and Terry Mcauliffe is heading for a victory

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1451896196923068424

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

@xingkerui

Another "advice" is to read, what experts think is going on. I've already linked to Cook, whose rating was dismissed by forum expert wbrock as "click-bate" (it's doubtful, he or she has even read it, though), falsely claiming they had bad records. Here is another one
https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/1451622826885009410
But I'm sure, you'll discard it as click-bate/doomerism whatever, will ya?

The article is basically saying that it is still an uphill battle for the Republicans and Dems still have the advantage. It really didn't tell us anything that we did not already know nor did they really convince me that race has fundamentally changed all that much.

That's what most blue avatars say as well.

If anything the main takeaway from this article for me is that despite everything that has gone wrong for dems Glenn Youngkin is still failing to either take the lead or at least turn the race into a tossup. I'm sorry, but at this point in the race neither Glenn Youngkin or his supporters should be celebrating the fact that he is still behind Terry Mcauliffe.

The Republicans can spin it as much as they like, but at some point being behind is not going to cut it for Glenn Youngkin if he really wants to win this. The reality for Youngkin is that if he is still failing to take the lead in this race a few days from now than it is probably over for him and Terry Mcauliffe is heading for a victory.

Yeah, TM likely is, it's a D+10 state after all. I care more about 2022, and possible swings or the lack thereof in VA/NJ will tell us something.

[Person Man]

@xingkerui

Another "advice" is to read, what experts think is going on. I've already linked to Cook, whose rating was dismissed by forum expert wbrock as "click-bate" (it's doubtful, he or she has even read it, though), falsely claiming they had bad records. Here is another one
https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/1451622826885009410
But I'm sure, you'll discard it as click-bate/doomerism whatever, will ya?

The article is basically saying that it is still an uphill battle for the Republicans and Dems still have the advantage. It really didn't tell us anything that we did not already know nor did they really convince me that race has fundamentally changed all that much.

That's what most blue avatars say as well.

If anything the main takeaway from this article for me is that despite everything that has gone wrong for dems Glenn Youngkin is still failing to either take the lead or at least turn the race into a tossup. I'm sorry, but at this point in the race neither Glenn Youngkin or his supporters should be celebrating the fact that he is still behind Terry Mcauliffe.

The Republicans can spin it as much as they like, but at some point being behind is not going to cut it for Glenn Youngkin if he really wants to win this. The reality for Youngkin is that if he is still failing to take the lead in this race a few days from now than it is probably over for him and Terry Mcauliffe is heading for a victory.

Yeah, TM likely is, it's a D+10 state after all. I care more about 2022, and possible swings or the lack thereof in VA/NJ will tell us something.

I still don’t understand why you aren’t.

[Non Swing Voter]

Prediction: after Youngkin loses, the blue avatars switch to talking about the Loudoun school board full time.

Remember, the only people who think Youngkin has a chance of winning also thought the CA recall would be within single digits (i.e., 15+ points off).  While they won't be wrong by 15 points, they'll be wrong again because they don't understand polarization (or they think it only works for rural voters in states like Iowa but not suburban voters in VA).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction: after Youngkin loses, the blue avatars switch to talking about the Loudoun school board full time.

Remember, the only people who think Youngkin has a chance of winning also thought the CA recall would be within single digits (i.e., 15+ points off).  While they won't be wrong by 15 points, they'll be wrong again because they don't understand polarization (or they think it only works for rural voters in states like Iowa but not suburban voters in VA).

Well, I predicted the CA recall margin would be between 15 and 20, and I do think Youngkin has a chance.  It's not a great chance; he's certainly not the favorite, but it wouldn't be the biggest upset in history if he pulls it out.

[Person Man]

Prediction: after Youngkin loses, the blue avatars switch to talking about the Loudoun school board full time.

Remember, the only people who think Youngkin has a chance of winning also thought the CA recall would be within single digits (i.e., 15+ points off).  While they won't be wrong by 15 points, they'll be wrong again because they don't understand polarization (or they think it only works for rural voters in states like Iowa but not suburban voters in VA).

Well, I predicted the CA recall margin would be between 15 and 20, and I do think Youngkin has a chance.  It's not a great chance; he's certainly not the favorite, but it wouldn't be the biggest upset in history if he pulls it out.

It would be between Trump 2016 and Trump territory.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction: after Youngkin loses, the blue avatars switch to talking about the Loudoun school board full time.

Remember, the only people who think Youngkin has a chance of winning also thought the CA recall would be within single digits (i.e., 15+ points off).  While they won't be wrong by 15 points, they'll be wrong again because they don't understand polarization (or they think it only works for rural voters in states like Iowa but not suburban voters in VA).

Well, I predicted the CA recall margin would be between 15 and 20, and I do think Youngkin has a chance.  It's not a great chance; he's certainly not the favorite, but it wouldn't be the biggest upset in history if he pulls it out.

It would be between Trump 2016 and Trump territory.

If you mean his chances are between Trump 2016 and Trump 2020, then yes I agree with that.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1451896196923068424

It's beyond embarrassing Biden can't legally fire Trump's lobbyist Louis DeJoy as head of the Postal Service. The guy is just a rich donor doing the Republicans' bidding to undermine vote by mail. So much for a draining the swamp.

[Non Swing Voter]

Prediction: after Youngkin loses, the blue avatars switch to talking about the Loudoun school board full time.

Remember, the only people who think Youngkin has a chance of winning also thought the CA recall would be within single digits (i.e., 15+ points off).  While they won't be wrong by 15 points, they'll be wrong again because they don't understand polarization (or they think it only works for rural voters in states like Iowa but not suburban voters in VA).

Well, I predicted the CA recall margin would be between 15 and 20, and I do think Youngkin has a chance.  It's not a great chance; he's certainly not the favorite, but it wouldn't be the biggest upset in history if he pulls it out.

Then you were barely off.  Many blue avatars said it would be single digits and that Newsom was vulnerable.

Youngkin really doesn't have a chance.  It's insane to see the blue avatars taking a victory lap in the thread about Youngkin's campaign when not a single vote has been counted.  I guess we should take a victory lap over Biden doing so well in Iowa 2020 as well, as the polls had it surprisingly really close.

[wbrocks67]

Obama calling a spade a spade. You can criticize T-Mac for his campaign, but the truth is Youngkin ain't running a great campaign either. His entire campaign is built around fake GOP cultural issues.

https://twitter.com/ryanbeckwith/status/1451989500167659525

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1451999217828782080

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1451997754796826627

[Non Swing Voter]

The blue avatars saying Terry isn't running a good campaign / Youngkin is fundamentally have no idea what Virginia voters want to hear as far as messaging.  I'm sure Youngkin's message appeals to an Iowa, Montana, or Florida electorate.  It doesn't work in Virginia.  Unfortunately, he's not running in Iowa.

[Matty]

The blue avatars saying Terry isn't running a good campaign / Youngkin is fundamentally have no idea what Virginia voters want to hear as far as messaging.  I'm sure Youngkin's message appeals to an Iowa, Montana, or Florida electorate.  It doesn't work in Virginia.  Unfortunately, he's not running in Iowa.

Then why is the race so close?

[Rookie Yinzer]

The blue avatars saying Terry isn't running a good campaign / Youngkin is fundamentally have no idea what Virginia voters want to hear as far as messaging.  I'm sure Youngkin's message appeals to an Iowa, Montana, or Florida electorate.  It doesn't work in Virginia.  Unfortunately, he's not running in Iowa.

Then why is the race so close?

According to what? What votes have been counted?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The blue avatars saying Terry isn't running a good campaign / Youngkin is fundamentally have no idea what Virginia voters want to hear as far as messaging.  I'm sure Youngkin's message appeals to an Iowa, Montana, or Florida electorate.  It doesn't work in Virginia.  Unfortunately, he's not running in Iowa.

Then why is the race so close?

According to what? What votes have been counted?

I'm sure he means that the polling indicates a close race, which is certainly true.

There are some people on the right who seem to think that Youngkin is the favorite and has this all but wrapped up.  This is objectively not the case.  Youngkin has made it closer than it was earlier in the campaign -- and it's close enough that he's within striking distance -- but every indication is that he is still behind.

However, there are some people on the left who think that McAuliffe is so far ahead that there's no way he can lose.  This is at least as wrong as the first position is.  Virginia has obviously moved to the left, and it's no longer as swingy as, say, Pennsylvania -- but some of you seem to think that it's become Maryland.

And frankly, the second group has become more annoying than the first one.  Have you learned nothing from the last few years about overconfidence?

[Progressive Pessimist]

The blue avatars saying Terry isn't running a good campaign / Youngkin is fundamentally have no idea what Virginia voters want to hear as far as messaging.  I'm sure Youngkin's message appeals to an Iowa, Montana, or Florida electorate.  It doesn't work in Virginia.  Unfortunately, he's not running in Iowa.

Then why is the race so close?

According to what? What votes have been counted?

I'm sure he means that the polling indicates a close race, which is certainly true.

There are some people on the right who seem to think that Youngkin is the favorite and has this all but wrapped up.  This is objectively not the case.  Youngkin has made it closer than it was earlier in the campaign -- and it's close enough that he's within striking distance -- but every indication is that he is still behind.

However, there are some people on the left who think that McAuliffe is so far ahead that there's no way he can lose.  This is at least as wrong as the first position is.  Virginia has obviously moved to the left, and it's no longer as swingy as, say, Pennsylvania -- but some of you seem to think that it's become Maryland.

And frankly, the second group has become more annoying than the first one.  Have you learned nothing from the last few years about overconfidence?

Say what you will about posters asserting Virgnia's polarization in Democrats' favor but the McAuliffe campaign itself doesn't seem to be taking this race for granted, and that's what matters. It's why I do still have faith that he will win no matter what. I'm just not entirely sure by how much anymore or what it may or may not say about 2022.

[roxas11]

The blue avatars saying Terry isn't running a good campaign / Youngkin is fundamentally have no idea what Virginia voters want to hear as far as messaging.  I'm sure Youngkin's message appeals to an Iowa, Montana, or Florida electorate.  It doesn't work in Virginia.  Unfortunately, he's not running in Iowa.

Then why is the race so close?

I'm not completely convinced that this race is close

Cleary many in the media would love for this it to be a toss up, but honestly, there is very little evidence that it actually is and it would not shock me at all if terry mcauliffe actually ended winning by a much bigger margin than the polls are currently saying.

I recently looked at the polls for the 2017 Virigina governor's race and I surprised at just how wrong most of them were at the time.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html



The polls made the race look close, especially at the end when it looked like it was tightening and the even Monmouth final poll had Northam only winning the race by +2 points lol

In the 2017 Virginia election and even recently during the California recall polls have underestimated the support for the democrats so it would not be all that surprising if this current governor's race also ends up not really be close in the end

[Non Swing Voter]

The blue avatars saying Terry isn't running a good campaign / Youngkin is fundamentally have no idea what Virginia voters want to hear as far as messaging.  I'm sure Youngkin's message appeals to an Iowa, Montana, or Florida electorate.  It doesn't work in Virginia.  Unfortunately, he's not running in Iowa.

Then why is the race so close?

According to what? What votes have been counted?

LOL, exactly.