Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20
Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

He was the odds-on favorite for Lt. Governor in 2013, but then the convention delegates heard EW Jackson give a speech about Lighting a Flame for Liberty or some such, and flocked to him instead. He had these little plastic torches or candles.

I voted against him in all 4 rounds because I knew he'd be general election poison, but the nature of these things is that they only attract die-hards and crazy people. Because nobody else wants to spend an entire Saturday in some arena while they try to count votes.

So I'd say Amanda Chase's odds are pretty good with that crowd.

Why do they even keep the convention system? The only time I can see it making sense is for a special election.

Obviously for political reasons. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20
Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

He was the odds-on favorite for Lt. Governor in 2013, but then the convention delegates heard EW Jackson give a speech about Lighting a Flame for Liberty or some such, and flocked to him instead. He had these little plastic torches or candles.

I voted against him in all 4 rounds because I knew he'd be general election poison, but the nature of these things is that they only attract die-hards and crazy people. Because nobody else wants to spend an entire Saturday in some arena while they try to count votes.

So I'd say Amanda Chase's odds are pretty good with that crowd.

Chase was convinced she couldn't win if it went to convention.  Plus her threat to run third-party I think will not sit well with people either.

[tosk]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20
Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

He was the odds-on favorite for Lt. Governor in 2013, but then the convention delegates heard EW Jackson give a speech about Lighting a Flame for Liberty or some such, and flocked to him instead. He had these little plastic torches or candles.

I voted against him in all 4 rounds because I knew he'd be general election poison, but the nature of these things is that they only attract die-hards and crazy people. Because nobody else wants to spend an entire Saturday in some arena while they try to count votes.

So I'd say Amanda Chase's odds are pretty good with that crowd.

Chase was convinced she couldn't win if it went to convention.  Plus her threat to run third-party I think will not sit well with people either.

yea, can someone explain this to me? It seems to me that a convention plays to her advantage so why would she have thought it was an attempt to torpedo her campaign?

[LtNOWIS]

Why do they even keep the convention system? The only time I can see it making sense is for a special election.

The rule is, each party decides on a case by case basis whether to have a primary or convention, at every level of government, every cycle. So in 2020 the GOP had a primary for US Senate and some House districts, but a convention for other House districts.

In the past, incumbents and other power brokers could put their thumb in the scale to choose whatever method benefited them in whatever circumstance.

But in recent decades in the Virginia GOP, there have been a lot of pro-convention partisans in party circles. They advance a few distinct arguments. 

The first argument is that a convention has multiple rounds of balloting, forcing someone to get a majority of the vote. That prevents someone from winning where they are disliked by the majority of the party. The counter-argument is that you're getting a majority of a tiny disproportionate subset of the party, namely people willing and able to travel to some convention hall for this nonsense.

The second argument is that conventions are only for Republicans. With no party registration, any state-run primary would be open to all Virginia voters, including independents and Evil Democrat saboteurs. The counter-argument is that, someone who can win independent votes is actually who you want in a general election, and that Democrats are too busy with their own primaries to sabotage things.

The third argument, which doesn't get vocalized, is that conventions give power and influence to the types of people who can attend these events. These are the same types of people who can attend and win support in the district meetings where State Central Committee members are selected. And if you like these events, a convention where they pick a candidate is going to be much better attended than an event where they only pick party officers and pass some utterly meaningless resolutions. Every delegate can meet all the candidates in person and talk to them. The night before the voting is like a big party, and the serious candidates will have food and alcohol to try to gain favor with the delegates. For a politics nerd it's actually a good time.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20
Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

He was the odds-on favorite for Lt. Governor in 2013, but then the convention delegates heard EW Jackson give a speech about Lighting a Flame for Liberty or some such, and flocked to him instead. He had these little plastic torches or candles.

I voted against him in all 4 rounds because I knew he'd be general election poison, but the nature of these things is that they only attract die-hards and crazy people. Because nobody else wants to spend an entire Saturday in some arena while they try to count votes.

So I'd say Amanda Chase's odds are pretty good with that crowd.

Chase was convinced she couldn't win if it went to convention.  Plus her threat to run third-party I think will not sit well with people either.

yea, can someone explain this to me? It seems to me that a convention plays to her advantage so why would she have thought it was an attempt to torpedo her campaign?

I got the impression there are a lot of influential people in the party she just does not get along with at all, but I don't know the details.

[beaver2.0]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20
Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

He was the odds-on favorite for Lt. Governor in 2013, but then the convention delegates heard EW Jackson give a speech about Lighting a Flame for Liberty or some such, and flocked to him instead. He had these little plastic torches or candles.

I voted against him in all 4 rounds because I knew he'd be general election poison, but the nature of these things is that they only attract die-hards and crazy people. Because nobody else wants to spend an entire Saturday in some arena while they try to count votes.

So I'd say Amanda Chase's odds are pretty good with that crowd.

Chase was convinced she couldn't win if it went to convention.  Plus her threat to run third-party I think will not sit well with people either.

yea, can someone explain this to me? It seems to me that a convention plays to her advantage so why would she have thought it was an attempt to torpedo her campaign?

I got the impression there are a lot of influential people in the party she just does not get along with at all, but I don't know the details.

This is my understanding.  It's not necessarily her views that will hurt her, it's the fact that she's pissed off enough party members with influence.

[Frodo]

As long as we get rid of the incumbent Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax in the Democratic primary (at this point, it's more important than the general election), I'll be happy with whomever we nominate.  

[merleturledge]

Everyone needs to be on the look out for him.  Merle Rutledge answered the same questions that Kirk Cox did from the Virginia Mercury and he's running for Governor.   I would not under estimate him and you can read why for yourself?

\

[Bootes Void]

VA should embrace runoffs for primaries, that way you don't have a bunch of people splitting the vote and leading to a obscure candidate winning

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

I am planning to volunteer for Jennifer Carrol Roy’s campaign. She’s the next governor VA needs. As far as LT gov goes... tough choice but I think my support is going to Sam Rasoul tho Ayala and Andria McClellan are both great choices

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1345053262848946177


Carter officialy announced.

[KaiserDave]

Yawn

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh. What are his chances in the primary? I assume next to nothing since McAuliffe is in?

[Roll Roons]

Lol. He’ll be lucky to get 10%.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I'm excited both to see how Carter's campaign fares and also how its fate gets under-analyzed and warped to fit everyone's prior perceptions of him and the commonwealth.

[Gracile]

Carter has little chance of winning the primary, and I wish he had just stayed put in the House of Delegates where he has pushed for great things (capping insulin prices, pushing for RTW repeal, etc.).

[Senator-elect Spark]

I am planning to volunteer for Jennifer Carrol Roy’s campaign. She’s the next governor VA needs.

Seems like a good candidate.

[YE]

This is like AOC primarying Schumer (if it were to happen) level stupid.

[Gracile]

This is like AOC primarying Schumer (if it were to happen) level stupid.

Maybe this is a hot take, but I actually think AOC would do better against Schumer than Carter would in this primary. The outcome would still be the same with both of them losing, though.

[YE]

This is like AOC primarying Schumer (if it were to happen) level stupid.

Maybe this is a hot take, but I actually think AOC would do better against Schumer than Carter would in this primary. The outcome would still be the same with both of them losing, though.

Probably in raw % but Carter and AOC would both be DOA.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1345053262848946177


Carter officialy announced.

His seat will be flipping anyway.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Carter has little chance of winning the primary, and I wish he had just stayed put in the House of Delegates where he has pushed for great things (capping insulin prices, pushing for RTW repeal, etc.).

Afaik he’s still running for re-election.

[Sestak]

McAuliffe is paying him to do this and you can’t convince me otherwise.

[brucejoel99]

He has no chance in hell of winning. Really just seems like an ego thing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's actually a really good video.

Still a laughably quixotic move.