Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[KaiserDave]

Probably looking at a Likely D race. I'll predict the margin to be 8 points.

I doubt that the democratic candidate would win by eight points if Cox is the republican nominee, yeah it’s true that in 2017 Northam won by 9 points but the climate should be less dem friendly than four years ago.

If trends are strong enough, which in Virginia they very much are, it's very possible the Dem this year outperforms Northam.

[jamestroll]

On blogs, comments, forums, etc I am seeing a lot of stupid safe R and safe D takes for Virginia Governor 2021.

Why is there is an assumption the state is as a Dem as California? Why is there also a counter assumption that the state will become heavily GOP without Trump in office?

[brucejoel99]

Yeah, no. McAuliffe saying he has more experience is neither racist nor a dog-whistle. It's just objectively true. Foy isn't running against the McAuliffe of 7 or 11 years ago. She's running against somebody who has since served 4 years in the Governor's Mansion. If you wanna argue he's had his time, then that's more than fine, but that's a wholly different (& frankly much better) argument than 'touting objective experience is now racist.'

[jamestroll]

Yeah, no. McAuliffe saying he has more experience is neither racist nor a dog-whistle. It's just objectively true. Foy isn't running against the McAuliffe of 7 or 11 years ago. She's running against somebody who has since served 4 years in the Governor's Mansion. If you wanna argue he's had his time, then that's more than fine, but that's a wholly different (& frankly much better) argument than 'touting objective experience is now racist.'

JCF's statement makes me even more inclined to support McAuliffe. He is not the McAuliffe who barely won in 2013. He was a highly successful governor and imagine what he could do with a Democratic House of Delegates and State Senate.

Plus he poses very little risk.

[Sir Mohamed]

I agree, McAuliffe stating he has more experience is objectively correct and for sure not racist whatsoever. That said, it's fair to point he ran in 2009 and 2013 without experience in statewide or other elected office. But complaining about racist dog whistles is not fair game here and would make me less likely to support her candidacy. I would most likely end up voting for McAuliffe if I were in VA. He did a fair job last time and the 1 term limit is outdated, if not kind of ridiculous.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably looking at a Likely D race. I'll predict the margin to be 8 points.

I doubt that the democratic candidate would win by eight points if Cox is the republican nominee, yeah it’s true that in 2017 Northam won by 9 points but the climate should be less dem friendly than four years ago.

Possible, but considering that Biden won VA by ''only'' 10 points and that the state congressional vote was D+5 (closer to D+6 if you take into account VA 9), a double digit dem win seems unlikely.

D+8 =/= double-digit win.

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably looking at a Likely D race. I'll predict the margin to be 8 points.

I doubt that the democratic candidate would win by eight points if Cox is the republican nominee, yeah it’s true that in 2017 Northam won by 9 points but the climate should be less dem friendly than four years ago.

Possible, but considering that Biden won VA by ''only'' 10 points and that the state congressional vote was D+5 (closer to D+6 if you take into account VA 9), a double digit dem win seems unlikely.

D+8 =/= double-digit win.

What is your point ??


Northam won by 9 points so if the democratic candidate does better than him by definition it would be a dem double digit win or very close to that

[MT Treasurer]

^Dude, the person suggesting that he would do better than Northam wasn’t Chips (who predicted D+8), and you literally quoted yourself in that post. I think you meant to quote KaiserDave.

D+8 is a completely realistic prediction, as this is certainly not the kind of state where there’s a large pool of persuadable voters who will flock to the GOP because it’ll be a ‘Biden midterm.’ The Democratic base in VA is very inflexible and tends to turnout even in off-year elections.

[jamestroll]

The fairly close house vote in Virginia is a bit concerning but its not like the Democratic Party ran a great national campaign either.

But still what is up with all these takes that VA will become a solid GOP state without Trump in office?

And no matter how polarized we are.. voting patterns will deviate from time to time.

[jamestroll]

I am supporting Jay Jones in the primary over Mark Herring for Attorney General.

For Lt. Gov I have no idea and frankly I have not even looked at the candidates. I would be willing to take more risk in that race though.

[Roll Roons]

The fairly close house vote in Virginia is a bit concerning but its not like the Democratic Party ran a great national campaign either.

But still what is up with all these takes that VA will become a solid GOP state without Trump in office?

And no matter how polarized we are.. voting patterns will deviate from time to time.

In 2018, the Democrat in VA-09 got 35% of the vote, but Griffith was unopposed this time, so that probably explains why the House PV was close. Wittman and Cline also won by more.

And I don't think anyone is saying that it'll become a red state with Trump gone, but it's not impossible to see Republicans slightly rebounding. I have my doubts about them winning the governorship, but Lt Gov could definitely be a race to watch.

[Del Tachi]

Yeah, no. McAuliffe saying he has more experience is neither racist nor a dog-whistle. It's just objectively true. Foy isn't running against the McAuliffe of 7 or 11 years ago. She's running against somebody who has since served 4 years in the Governor's Mansion. If you wanna argue he's had his time, then that's more than fine, but that's a wholly different (& frankly much better) argument than 'touting objective experience is now racist.'

There is no reason statements can't be objectively true and racist dog whistles, FWIW.  Anyone can claim anything as a "dog whistle" because it's based on allegedly racist coding that is absent in the literal contents of the speech.  There is no real defense of "dog-whistling" because the very technique requires a certain degree of plausible deniability, and thus anyone invoking the term is engaging in an unfair smear attack.

That being said, JCF is campaigning as the "woke" candidate so she can be expected to say flashly things like this. 

[Frenchrepublican]

A future governor Pete ?

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1338920505269686273?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably looking at a Likely D race. I'll predict the margin to be 8 points.

I doubt that the democratic candidate would win by eight points if Cox is the republican nominee, yeah it’s true that in 2017 Northam won by 9 points but the climate should be less dem friendly than four years ago.

If trends are strong enough, which in Virginia they very much are, it's very possible the Dem this year outperforms Northam.

Possible, but considering that Biden won VA by ''only'' 10 points and that the state congressional vote was D+5 (closer to D+6 if you take into account VA 9) a double digit dem win seems unlikely.

[Frenchrepublican]

^Dude, the person suggesting that he would do better than Northam wasn’t Chips (who predicted D+8), and you literally quoted yourself in that post. I think you meant to quote KaiserDave.

D+8 is a completely realistic prediction, as this is certainly not the kind of state where there’s a large pool of persuadable voters who will flock to the GOP because it’ll be a ‘Biden midterm.’ The Democratic base in VA is very inflexible and tends to turnout even in off-year elections.

Oops, yeah I wanted to quote KaiserDave

[President Johnson]

I thought Carroll Foy would be a good candidate for at least the second spot, but looks like this won't happen. Accusing T-Mac of racist dogwhistles for citing his experience in the job is laughable and makes me support him even more. To the best of my knowledge, T-Mac has good relations with the African American community in his state and his campaign has numerous blacks in senior roles. He should win handily both the primary and general and will be an awesome governor again.

[beaver2.0]

Yeah I have to agree.  To say a former Governor touting his experience is a racist dogwhistle is just ridiculous.  I'm undecided but labelling this racist turns me off from Carroll Foy.

[Roll Roons]

On FB, Amanda Chase calls for Trump to declare martial law:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/530291-gop-gubernatorial-candidate-in-virginia-calls-on-trump-todeclare-martial?fbclid=IwAR0elp0taQbxBAP7KBXCE_Q3_55Yj1eNaBAQfNRqM26cFpLPx0y-IOn9oPU

What a f**king lunatic. But I never have faith in VAGOP to do anything smart at a convention. And let's be honest, she'll run as a third-party spoiler anyway.

[President Johnson]

On FB, Amanda Chase calls for Trump to declare martial law:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/530291-gop-gubernatorial-candidate-in-virginia-calls-on-trump-todeclare-martial?fbclid=IwAR0elp0taQbxBAP7KBXCE_Q3_55Yj1eNaBAQfNRqM26cFpLPx0y-IOn9oPU

What a f**king lunatic. But I never have faith in VAGOP to do anything smart at a convention. And let's be honest, she'll run as a third-party spoiler anyway.

Yeah, they completely lost it. They're the same joke as the Arizona Republican Party, which could very well end up with the same fate by the middle or end of this decade.

[NewYorkExpress]

On FB, Amanda Chase calls for Trump to declare martial law:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/530291-gop-gubernatorial-candidate-in-virginia-calls-on-trump-todeclare-martial?fbclid=IwAR0elp0taQbxBAP7KBXCE_Q3_55Yj1eNaBAQfNRqM26cFpLPx0y-IOn9oPU

What a f**king lunatic. But I never have faith in VAGOP to do anything smart at a convention. And let's be honest, she'll run as a third-party spoiler anyway.

Is there a betting line on whether Chase will be the GOP nominee? I think I'd make good money betting she's the nominee.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

On FB, Amanda Chase calls for Trump to declare martial law:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/530291-gop-gubernatorial-candidate-in-virginia-calls-on-trump-todeclare-martial?fbclid=IwAR0elp0taQbxBAP7KBXCE_Q3_55Yj1eNaBAQfNRqM26cFpLPx0y-IOn9oPU

What a f**king lunatic. But I never have faith in VAGOP to do anything smart at a convention. And let's be honest, she'll run as a third-party spoiler anyway.

So going by how the VAGOP has been acting as of late she’s a lock for the nomination

[Roll Roons]

On FB, Amanda Chase calls for Trump to declare martial law:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/530291-gop-gubernatorial-candidate-in-virginia-calls-on-trump-todeclare-martial?fbclid=IwAR0elp0taQbxBAP7KBXCE_Q3_55Yj1eNaBAQfNRqM26cFpLPx0y-IOn9oPU

What a f**king lunatic. But I never have faith in VAGOP to do anything smart at a convention. And let's be honest, she'll run as a third-party spoiler anyway.

So going by how the VAGOP has been acting as of late she’s a lock for the nomination

Yup. And the general election will be a snoozer.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20

Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

[LtNOWIS]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20
Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

He was the odds-on favorite for Lt. Governor in 2013, but then the convention delegates heard EW Jackson give a speech about Lighting a Flame for Liberty or some such, and flocked to him instead. He had these little plastic torches or candles.

I voted against him in all 4 rounds because I knew he'd be general election poison, but the nature of these things is that they only attract die-hards and crazy people. Because nobody else wants to spend an entire Saturday in some arena while they try to count votes.

So I'd say Amanda Chase's odds are pretty good with that crowd.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20
Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

He was the odds-on favorite for Lt. Governor in 2013, but then the convention delegates heard EW Jackson give a speech about Lighting a Flame for Liberty or some such, and flocked to him instead. He had these little plastic torches or candles.

I voted against him in all 4 rounds because I knew he'd be general election poison, but the nature of these things is that they only attract die-hards and crazy people. Because nobody else wants to spend an entire Saturday in some arena while they try to count votes.

So I'd say Amanda Chase's odds are pretty good with that crowd.

Why do they even keep the convention system? The only time I can see it making sense is for a special election.