Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

I feel like at this point, from comments you can read everywhere online, that the extremism in opinions of the final outcome of this race are feeding off of each other.

No, Youngkin will not win Loudoun County even though I would expect it to swing quite a bit right relatively as it is wealthier and whiter than the rest of Nova.

No, McAufflie can not win by Tim Kaine margin's statewide. The climate is just not right and the votes arent there even if McAufflie is favored.

[President Johnson]

I’m going for McAullife +11

That's optimatic, but far from impossible. I think it will be similar to 2017.

[FisherF]

I think he County/Independent city map will be the same as the 2020 President map except for Lynchburg.

[Nyvin]

Youngkin says he can't share his views on abortion since they wouldn't win the independent voters support that he needs.   
https://twitter.com/American_Bridge/status/1412921354446200836?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

In other words he's hiding his views since he knows they're unpopular in the state.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lol, this non-answer might actually lose the dude more voters on the right than it wins him in the center.

[Jackson Lee]

I know my folk.

McAulife will win by 51-47 against Trumpkin.

[SnowLabrador]

I know my folk.

McAulife will win by 51-47 against Trumpkin.

If so, the GOP will get a lot more momentum. Hopefully it's at least as much as Northam's 2017 margin.

[Lognog]

Not going to lie. I did not have this race on my list of "winnable races the GOP will totally blow in 2021/2022", that is after Youngkin was nominated. At first, I thought the VA GOP was going to put up any number of crazies for this race, but they actually went with the seemingly sane one of the bunch. But, his literally praise of his opponent, history of offshoring, and seemingly staunch pro life stance has totally upended this race. This is what happens when you dont have a bench in a state, you blow winnable races down the line.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Trump Endorses Youngskin, I move the race to Likely D from Lean D.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Youngkin has been running a mess of a campaign. Of course, McAuliffe’s hasn’t been spectacular either, but at least he has a coherent strategy.

I don’t see an upset happening unless TMac gets hit with a huge scandal.

We really need some polls.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump Endorses Youngskin, I move the race to Likely D from Lean D.

IDK who thought this would be a net positive for R chances in VA?!

[jamestroll]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election

look at the comment section. They are debating whether or not Youngkin can outright win nova or not. While the market favors Democrats, the comment section is mostly people saying Youngkin will win Loudoun outright and has a good chance in Fairfax.

its like... lmao..

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election

look at the comment section. They are debating whether or not Youngkin can outright win nova or not. While the market favors Democrats, the comment section is mostly people saying Youngkin will win Loudoun outright and has a good chance in Fairfax.

its like... lmao..

The PredictIt comment section is a hellscape. None of those people know what they're talking about 95% of the time. It's best to avoid it at all costs.

[Duke of York]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election

look at the comment section. They are debating whether or not Youngkin can outright win nova or not. While the market favors Democrats, the comment section is mostly people saying Youngkin will win Loudoun outright and has a good chance in Fairfax.

its like... lmao..

If online comments meant anything Nixon would have defeated Cuomo in 2018.

[jamestroll]

The Youngkin people in that section basically have Youngkin carrying every jurisdiction in the state.

[Holmes]

Youngkin will win NoVA if it's raining.

[VAR]

Eh, it’s not like a different Republican would better handle the abortion issue. But that’s still insignificant in the grand scheme of things. The national GOP is viewed very negatively in Virginia and that sentiment is very good at delivering Democratic victories in this state. Nothing else truly matters.

[jamestroll]

Without using the words.. he is rich... what exactly is making people think youngkin is such a great candidate and an unbeatable titan?

[jamestroll]

This is my initial  jurisdiction prediction.

First off I will start with this:

I. WILL. NOT. TOLERATE. ANY. PREDICTION. THAT. HAS. MCAUFFLIE. CARRYING. VIRGINIA. BEACH. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He will not carry it.




I am unsure of Chesapeake city. Will be very close. Hopewell City could vote for Youngkin as well if the vote is heavily racially polarized. Stafford is not happening for  Democrats this November.

Chesterfield I am unsure of but think Youngkin has it but barely.

Virginia Beach will be like 53 to 46 Youngkin. Not a landslide but Democrats aren't winning it this year.

And to some clowns dismay... Democrats will win Loudoun.

[NYDem]

I'm expecting a Youngkin sweep, but I don't know if he has what it takes to win Virginia Beach back; it has been swinging towards the Democrats pretty quickly.

[Skill and Chance]

Eh, it’s not like a different Republican would better handle the abortion issue. But that’s still insignificant in the grand scheme of things. The national GOP is viewed very negatively in Virginia and that sentiment is very good at delivering Democratic victories in this state. Nothing else truly matters.

The abortion stuff is not going to be decisive, and a hardline stance is usually a net gain for a Republican even in a Lean Dem state.  What's going to hurt is the Trump endorsement.  Trump has the potential to singlehandedly elect McAuliffe.

[Suburbia]

If McAuliffe acts like Martha Coakley and says "Virginia is a Safe D state now, I don't need to campaign, I can just coast by D generic....no...

This race is Likely D/Lean D

Youngkin is rich like McAuliffe and is trying to get the Black vote, the Virginia GOP Lt. Gov. candidate is a Black conservative woman, Winsome Sears....

McAuliffe+9, but he should not rest on his laurels and he should not allow the Clintons to campaign for him....maybe Biden or Harris or Obama, or maybe even AOC to consolidate the wings of the Democratic Party.....

McAuliffe should try to appeal to Southwest Virginia and get at least 70/30 or 60/40 out of there instead of 80/20....

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election

look at the comment section. They are debating whether or not Youngkin can outright win nova or not. While the market favors Democrats, the comment section is mostly people saying Youngkin will win Loudoun outright and has a good chance in Fairfax.

its like... lmao..

The PredictIt comment section is a hellscape. None of those people know what they're talking about 95% of the time. It's best to avoid it at all costs.

The stupid thing about predictit (and why nobody should use bettering markets to gauge anything besides pundant theories) is that those holding value in one candidate are motivated to post anything in discusion that would harm said candidate. Anything that could cause the market to deviate from its natural resting point and allow you to buy your candidates shares at low, then sell when the market returns to its natural resting point for a profit - or then immediately about face so you make more.

[Chips]

Yeah the Trump endorsement doesn't look too good for Youngkin's chances.

I still don't think it's impossible for Youngkin to pull off the upset, but it will be harder.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems should run a "positive" commercial touting Trump's endorsement of Youngkin.  That should be enough to win the state.