Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

After last night I have two predictions.

1) Terry McAuliffe will be he next governor of VA. He won't win by much but he will win. Sticking with by 3 to 5%.

2) There will not be any pandemic restrictions nor any mask mandates whatsoever past June 15th.

[jamestroll]

And cool! 25 pages. Would be funny if we get to 100 pages.

[jamestroll]

The nomination of Youngkin could end up good for Democrats really. They have woken up since last night!

I could easily see Cox potentially having winning this November under sleepy Democrats.

This race should be fun but I worry about the potential of violence between Youngkin and McAufflie supporters this November.

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The group I am in called REOPEN VIRGINIA are very sad and disappointed that Chase is not the nominee but they are all predicting like double digit wins for Youngkin and Miyares and 15 + seat gain in the HOD.

[jamestroll]

My predictions:

This thread will end up with 100 pages.

And Terry Mcaufflie will win by 3%. Basically the destined result this entire time

[jamestroll]

The big lesson here is: There is ZERO chance that Democrats will continue to perform as well as they have during the Trump era with college educated whites.

[jamestroll]

The big lesson here is: There is ZERO chance that Democrats will continue to perform as well as they have during the Trump era with college educated whites.

It would really help the signal to noise ratio of this entire thread if you didn’t post anything unless you had some hard facts or logic behind them.

Look at the results of the Georgia Special Elections in January. Oh and of course the result of VA HOD special election in district 2. A district is is nearly unanimously college educated white.

[jamestroll]

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

right, gotcha - any region that doesn't support Republicans = "fake"

It is funny to see complete melt downs on twitter and seeing people on Twitter go from saying the race is SAFE D to now SAFE R because of MUH spending.

But real Virginia is Nova and Richmond and will vote for Tmac in November

[jamestroll]

Before the Glenn Youngkin nomination, I had this election as Lean Democrat. After the Glenn Youngkin nomination, I still have this race as Lean D. It has been wildly amusing to see people on twitter go from saying VA GOV is Safe D to now saying its Lean R or even Safe R pick up.

One take I have is that this nomination has woken the Virginia Democratic Party up and now they will not take this race for granted. I could have easily seen a nominee like Kirk Cox quietly win the governors race with a complacent Democratic base. That will not happen now.

[jamestroll]

The takes I have seen on twitter the past few days have been astonishingly ridiculous. I think it all comes down to the fact that Youngkin is rich and can self fund and is supposedly fairly moderate.

But I have some counter points.

1) Flooding the airwaves non stop can have a point of diminishing returns. At some point, all the money in the world is not going to change peoples minds and may even have a counter negative effect. See GA-06 2017 Special election.

2) Kirk Cox may have actually been the biggest threat to the Democrats for a variety of reasons. Consistent over performer in a lean to likely Democratic seat and was just conservative enough to hold his base in the general and just moderate enough to appear to be  a "nice caring guy". Plus his stint as a social studies teacher certainly helps.

3) Kirk Cox also would have had the regionalism advantage. Downstate people do not like Nova. Now it is literally McLean vs Great Falls. No regional advantage for the GOP in this race.

4) This Youngkin nomination, as I have brought up before, has literally woken Democrats up. I could easily see someone like Cox quietly sneak by with a complacent Democratic electorate. This will not happen now If anything Democrats are becoming wide awake and more aggressive.

5) Expecting suburban areas that voted heavily downballot for the GOP as late as 2016 (even if they voted for Clinton) and voted heavily for Romney in 2012 to remain as Democratic under Biden was not going to happen. But not all suburban areas are the same. No doubt some people in Loudoun County have changed their political perferences the past decade or so and no doubt some will be Biden-Youngkin voters but the sheer vote total boosts suggests that most of Loudoun's shift is literally new voters registering. Industry is important and the dominant industries of Nova lean Democratic heavily.

6) Though on the other hand I would be worried about the Hampton Roads area, with the only saving grace for Democrats there is the large black population.  No Virginia Beach City is not going to vote for the GOP by double digit margins but it will be a very tough area for the Democrats to  keep winning. Especially this year.

7) You know the person who did the worst in rural Virginia since the 2016 election? His name is Joe Biden. Even with that, look at county results east of the Shenandoah and compare them to similar counties in states south and west of Virginia. Democrats really did impressively well. Spanberger could not have won re-election with some rural support. I also do not expect rural areas to be as pro-Youngkin as they were pro-Trump.

My ratings before and after the Youngkin nomination:

Governor from Lean D to Lean D

Lt. Governor from Toss Up to Lean D

Attorney General from Lean D to Lean D

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/NJRedistrict/status/1392140042710261761

This is not Bush voters in 2000 and 2004 who wanted WARRRRR and suddenly switched Democratic in 2016 because of Trump's demeanor.

You can't say Warner lost Loudoun in a low turn out election in 2014 and think that Youngkin has a chance in it in 2012. Two very different elections.


Want to know the place where there could be a signficant shift to the GOP due to "Never Trumpers"? It is called Fairfax County, Viriginia.



Raw vote total has not change as much in proportion to Fairfax County's population. There is evidence there were a lot of Romney to Clinton/Biden voters who could easily vote for Youngkin. But Some people have fundamentally changed.

[jamestroll]

Before the Glenn Youngkin nomination, I had this election as Lean Democrat. After the Glenn Youngkin nomination, I still have this race as Lean D. It has been wildly amusing to see people on twitter go from saying VA GOV is Safe D to now saying its Lean R or even Safe R pick up.

One take I have is that this nomination has woken the Virginia Democratic Party up and now they will not take this race for granted. I could have easily seen a nominee like Kirk Cox quietly win the governors race with a complacent Democratic base. That will not happen now.

Funny, you were one of those people on here having those changes of heart every post.

Nope. I always had this race as lean d.

[jamestroll]

There is a lot of disourse and debate on Twitter whether Yohngkin will carry Fairfax or Loudoun counties or not.

Well andectoally, people are still wearing masks in public inside in Nova. So I do rate both counties as Safe Tmac.

[jamestroll]

I wonder if Glenn Youngkin had anything to do with the cyber attack ? It seems awfully conincidental that this happened as he won the nomination?

Pathetic attempt to stop McAufflie

[jamestroll]

Andedoctal update:

Jogged through Vienna to Fairfax today. Many people outside still with masks but less than before. Indoors its nearly 100%.

A few Terry Mcaufflie signs as well.

So good signs for Democrats in nova at least.

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1395506490232946690

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP... that is all this election will be about apparently. TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP.

Tmac is destined to lose Virginia Beach and Chestferfield County this fall.. but he can't lose them by double digits. Those types of ads will be off putting down there.

[jamestroll]

Okay.. I know l like 5 Romney-Clinton people in Nova voting for McAufflie.

All these takes on twitter that Youngkin will significantly outperform Trump in Nova are abusrd.


Rest of Virginia tho... uhh

[jamestroll]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself. 

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

[jamestroll]

College educated whites will swing heavily Republican in the 2022 Midterms. Do not let Nova's results this November fool you!!!

[jamestroll]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself.  

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

Perhaps its based on analysis from the Facebook group he frequents?

That FB group I am in, called Reopen Virginia, has become very quiet and almost dead since all covid restrictions have been lifted. But with all respect, every single special election since Biden's election has shown massive swings of educated whites to the GOP.

[jamestroll]

I am seeing a lot of takes on twitter that Loudoun County will be won by Youngkin.

Youngkin would have to win by at least 10 statewide in order to carry Loudoun and that is only because Youngkin can only improve so much on Trump in the west and far west and I can not see rural African American's in the east and south side swining to Youngkin.

The range of the election statewide is between Youngkin + 10 to Tmac +7. Most likely outcome is Tmac by 1 to 3%.

95% Youngkin loses Loudoun.

[jamestroll]

What would happen in the state house if it's actually D+1 like the most recent poll showed? 

2019 was D+9.4 and a 55D/45R result on the current map.

2017 was D+9.3 and 51R/49D but with a much more R-leaning map prior to the court case

Biden improved substantially over 2010's Dem numbers in thoe swing suburban seats, but lost ground in some safe Dem seats, so if the 2021 results skew toward Biden, the Dem situation will improve substantially.  I think it would end up being 52R/48D or so?

I still have the House of Delegates as Tilt D. Seat 51 is quite strong for Democrats after the redraw in Hampton Roads.

[jamestroll]

It will be halarious if Youngkin does better in Nova as compared to Trump and people will wrongfully say for years that Youngkin won Nova even when he didn't. We still have people absolutely convinced Mitt Romney won Nova when it is clearly not true.

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https://twitter.com/gabriellaborter/status/1407463741235642369

There is already violence happening..

The aftermath of nov 2nd will be intense and there is no reason not to expect mass violence throughout the state.  Several state national guards will have to be called in.

[jamestroll]

My preliminary prediction:

McAufflie will not win Virginia Beach under any circumstances.

[jamestroll]

Also, has anyone else noticed that the cyber attacks which caused mass shortages on the east coast just so happened to “coincidentally” happen as Youngkin won the nomination. I really do think he was behind the cyber attacks and paid people off to help his campaign.