Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Oryxslayer]

So, nobody has polled the race for more than a month now?

There's going to be a crowdfunded poll sponsored by @CNAnalysis and JMC Analytics in the field after the primary, but no primary polls for a while. Also no indication when other national firms will poll the head-to-head races after the primary. In general I think firms didn't see the value when the GOP wasn't holding a primary, the governor primary is safe McAuliffe, and the other two Dem races have high numbers of undecideds.

[Non Swing Voter]

Trumpkin's ads are still so bad.  All I take from it: "I'm tall, white, and love Jesus.  We need a new day in Virginia."

Where does he think he's running, South Carolina?

[wbrocks67]

Is there any updates on the EV?

[Oryxslayer]

You were asking for a poll? here's your poll.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1400807787354116099?s=20

Attorney General is:

Herring 50%
Jones 20%
Undecided 28%

So the common wisdom remains consistent. McAuliffe is way ahead and already won. Herring is also ahead of Jones but by less. The Lt. Gov race remains a crapshoot. The one change is that Ayala now might have the best position in the Lt. Gov field, rather than Rasoul.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems like Herring has fought his way back to renomination since he rentered the race for AG. The gov-primary is obviously Safe McAuliffe while lt. gov. is a total wildcard.

[wbrocks67]

It's really too bad b/c Caroll Foy would've been a good pick if not for McAuliffe. Oh well.

Also LOL @ Fairfax

[Mycool]

I wish we had ranked choice voting for LT Gov in particular. It’s so hard to tell who is favored and how strategic to be with my vote.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I wish we had ranked choice voting for LT Gov in particular. It’s so hard to tell who is favored and how strategic to be with my vote.

With a race this wide open and even strategic voting is next to impossible

For what it’s worth if I was in VA I’d be backing Ayala

[LtNOWIS]

I wish we had ranked choice voting for LT Gov in particular. It’s so hard to tell who is favored and how strategic to be with my vote.

It's amazing we have 45% undecided a few days from election day.

But I do think it's primarily an Ayala vs. Rasoul race. Ayala is #1 in polling (for what little that's worth), has the Northam endorsement and other establishment backing, and is #1 on the ballot. Rasoul has a lot of progressive support and endorsements, a lot of money, and WaPo's endorsement.

McClellan and Levine aren't out of it, with McClellan having a lot of support in Hampton Roads and Levine trying to benefit from a late ad blitz on gun control. But I do think they're second tier.

But yeah, this would be a great time for ranked choice voting. I much prefer Ayala, Rasoul and McClellan to Levine and the also-rans. Levine's my delegate and I rather dislike him. He's also running for re-election, which is tacky, but he faces a top tier primary challenge from the vice mayor of Alexandria.

[President Johnson]

I think T-Mac will easily clear 50% in the primary election.

[Oryxslayer]

But yeah, this would be a great time for ranked choice voting. I much prefer Ayala, Rasoul and McClellan to Levine and the also-rans. Levine's my delegate and I rather dislike him. He's also running for re-election, which is tacky, but he faces a top tier primary challenge from the vice mayor of Alexandria.

Its expected Levine will lose both primaries, at least according to the VA pundit insiders on twitter.

[Non Swing Voter]

It's really too bad b/c Caroll Foy would've been a good pick if not for McAuliffe. Oh well.

Also LOL @ Fairfax

She should have run for Lt. Gov.  I think T-Mac and her would have made a good ticket.

[Non Swing Voter]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself. 

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

[jamestroll]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself. 

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

[jamestroll]

College educated whites will swing heavily Republican in the 2022 Midterms. Do not let Nova's results this November fool you!!!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

College educated whites will swing heavily Republican in the 2022 Midterms. Do not let Nova's results this November fool you!!!

Fixed to remove the scrolly bit

[DINGO Joe]

College educated whites will swing heavily Republican in the 2022 Midterms. Do not let Nova's results this November fool you!!!

Fixed to remove the scrolly bit

Unfortunately the squirrelly bit is still there

[wbrocks67]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself. 

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

[Skill and Chance]

It's really too bad b/c Caroll Foy would've been a good pick if not for McAuliffe. Oh well.

Also LOL @ Fairfax

She should have run for Lt. Gov.  I think T-Mac and her would have made a good ticket.

Yes, definitely.  Honestly none of the LG candidates seem particularly strong and the GOP nominee has a lot of potential.  LG is at great risk of flipping if McAuliffe's margin is 5% or less.  AG could be a mess too as a narrow Herring primary win looks like the most likely outcome.  That's the most awkward situation for Dems.

[Alben Barkley]

Glad T-Mac is returning, and hope VA will get rid of its ridiculous archaic "no consecutive terms" law like KY did over 20 years ago.

[Skill and Chance]

Glad T-Mac is returning, and hope VA will get rid of its ridiculous archaic "no consecutive terms" law like KY did over 20 years ago.

Ehhh... I think it's kind of a cool ideosyncracy.  If they are going to reform something, they should get rid of the odd-year elections for state offices and move Governor/LG/AG to presidential years. 

[Roll Roons]

Glad T-Mac is returning, and hope VA will get rid of its ridiculous archaic "no consecutive terms" law like KY did over 20 years ago.

Ehhh... I think it's kind of a cool ideosyncracy.  If they are going to reform something, they should get rid of the odd-year elections for state offices and move Governor/LG/AG to presidential years. 

I actually like that. It gives us election nerds something to follow every year. Plus as someone who follows New Jersey politics, it's nice that things are less nationalized because they don't coincide with midterms or presidential years.

[President Johnson]

Glad T-Mac is returning, and hope VA will get rid of its ridiculous archaic "no consecutive terms" law like KY did over 20 years ago.

Ehhh... I think it's kind of a cool ideosyncracy.  If they are going to reform something, they should get rid of the odd-year elections for state offices and move Governor/LG/AG to presidential years. 

I actually like that. It gives us election nerds something to follow every year. Plus as someone who follows New Jersey politics, it's nice that things are less nationalized because they don't coincide with midterms or presidential years.

As I understand it, Alben just wants to get rid of the one term limit. I definitely agree with that. As for the off year election, they can keep this for election nerds.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself.  

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

Perhaps its based on analysis from the Facebook group he frequents?

[Duke of York]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself.  

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

Perhaps its based on analysis from the Facebook group he frequents?

which is not evidence.