Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Non Swing Voter]

Why isn't anyone polling the VA Gov. race, now that the candidates are set in stone ?

The Dems still have an alibi primary, but no other than McAuliffe will win there ...

I'd even like a Trafalgar poll from there.

Because it's May?  And it's not a Presidential election?

[Non Swing Voter]

There is a lot of disourse and debate on Twitter whether Yohngkin will carry Fairfax or Loudoun counties or not.

Well andectoally, people are still wearing masks in public inside in Nova. So I do rate both counties as Safe Tmac.

You're trolling right?

[MT Treasurer]

You are right, I should know better than to promote unsubstantiated "Virginia is an unrepresentative blue state" claims which are a mere product of my fantasy and clearly not based in any actual data/voting patterns. If Republicans can’t even make Virginia genuinely competitive, how will they ever rebound in PA, WI, NV, AZ, or MI? Or keep it within single digits against the Fink?

Then again, I still mix up Arlington and Fairfax, so what do I know?

[Non Swing Voter]

You are right, I should know better than to promote unsubstantiated "Virginia is an unrepresentative blue state" claims which are a mere product of my fantasy and clearly not based in any actual data/voting patterns. If Republicans can’t even make Virginia genuinely competitive, how will they ever rebound in PA, WI, NV, AZ, or MI? Or keep it within single digits against the Fink?

Then again, I still mix up Arlington and Fairfax, so what do I know?

You should ponder that question.

[jamestroll]

I wonder if Glenn Youngkin had anything to do with the cyber attack ? It seems awfully conincidental that this happened as he won the nomination?

Pathetic attempt to stop McAufflie

[jamestroll]

Andedoctal update:

Jogged through Vienna to Fairfax today. Many people outside still with masks but less than before. Indoors its nearly 100%.

A few Terry Mcaufflie signs as well.

So good signs for Democrats in nova at least.

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1395506490232946690

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP... that is all this election will be about apparently. TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP.

Tmac is destined to lose Virginia Beach and Chestferfield County this fall.. but he can't lose them by double digits. Those types of ads will be off putting down there.

[LtNOWIS]

Andedoctal update:

Jogged through Vienna to Fairfax today. Many people outside still with masks but less than before. Indoors its nearly 100%.

A few Terry Mcaufflie signs as well.

So good signs for Democrats in nova at least.

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1395506490232946690
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP... that is all this election will be about apparently. TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP.

Tmac is destined to lose Virginia Beach and Chestferfield County this fall.. but he can't lose them by double digits. Those types of ads will be off putting down there.

He doesn't have to run the ad everywhere. If he's smart, he'll play anti-Trump ads in the DC media market, and different ads downstate.

[Roll Roons]

Is the Democrats' campaign really just boiling down to Orange Man Bad? It's bad enough that he's completely dominated national discourse since June 2015, but he's not even president anymore. He's basically Grampa Simpson yelling at a cloud. At least in a state-level race, not everything needs to come back to him.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

O

Is the Democrats' campaign really just boiling down to Orange Man Bad? It's bad enough that he's completely dominated national discourse since June 2015, but he's not even president anymore. He's basically Grampa Simpson yelling at a cloud. At least in a state-level race, not everything needs to come back to him.

Orange man bad seemed to work pretty well for Northam in the 2017 primaries (he had other institutional advantages of course).

I wouldn't be surprised if it was just primary maneuvering the same way that the way many earn their conservative bona fides. But also in a state so reliant on the federal government and its workers I think tying any candidate to Trump will be fairly effective - not enough to win in a toss-up state but enough of a cushion in a state with a big D advantage.

[Tender Branson]

Richmond Area Power Poll:

43% TMac
38% Youngkin

https://www.henricocitizen.com/articles/richmond-power-poll-respondents-weigh-in-on-state-elections/

Unscientific poll, but could this spell trouble for the Dems ?

Richmond and suburbs are heavily Dem ...

[Rookie Yinzer]

Richmond Area Power Poll:

43% TMac
38% Youngkin

https://www.henricocitizen.com/articles/richmond-power-poll-respondents-weigh-in-on-state-elections/

Unscientific poll, but could this spell trouble for the Dems ?

Richmond and suburbs are heavily Dem ...

End of discussion.

[tjstarling]

We may be getting a poll from PPP soon (unknown if the poll is intended for public release or private use only). Just got a text from PPP asking to participate in their poll. No general election polling. Most of the specific questions pertained to the Dem AG race. They did ask about Dem gov primary. No questions on Dem Lt. Gov primary.

[LabourJersey]

Is the Democrats' campaign really just boiling down to Orange Man Bad? It's bad enough that he's completely dominated national discourse since June 2015, but he's not even president anymore. He's basically Grampa Simpson yelling at a cloud. At least in a state-level race, not everything needs to come back to him.

I mean he might be yelling at clouds from Mar-A-Lago, but Trump is still the leader of the Republican party. That's just a fact.

[Oryxslayer]

Is the Democrats' campaign really just boiling down to Orange Man Bad? It's bad enough that he's completely dominated national discourse since June 2015, but he's not even president anymore. He's basically Grampa Simpson yelling at a cloud. At least in a state-level race, not everything needs to come back to him.

I mean he might be yelling at clouds from Mar-A-Lago, but Trump is still the leader of the Republican party. That's just a fact.

Yes, and if Youngkin wants to attach his horse to Trump's post-election policies like "ballot integrity" then its only natural for the Dems to respond in kind. A decision to rehash the 2020 race, perhaps inevitable given the present influence of both former candidates, only benefits the Dems - which is why they are pushing for this to happen.

[Terlylane]

McAulliffe will obviously win.

[wbrocks67]

Richmond Area Power Poll:

43% TMac
38% Youngkin

https://www.henricocitizen.com/articles/richmond-power-poll-respondents-weigh-in-on-state-elections/

Unscientific poll, but could this spell trouble for the Dems ?

Richmond and suburbs are heavily Dem ...

why would you even post this

[Non Swing Voter]

Is the Democrats' campaign really just boiling down to Orange Man Bad? It's bad enough that he's completely dominated national discourse since June 2015, but he's not even president anymore. He's basically Grampa Simpson yelling at a cloud. At least in a state-level race, not everything needs to come back to him.

Why wouldn't it?  Trump still dominates the GOP and Trump is probably the least liked politician among the Virginia electorate.  It would be political malpractice for Democrats to not talk about Trump in every ad.  It might cost them a bit in rural parts of the state but those parts are completely irrelevant to the math of getting elected in Virginia which is all about NOVA, Richmond, and Virginia Beach.

[Duke of York]

McAulliffe will obviously win.

and hopefully Democrats keep the LT Gov and AG along with the House of Delegates too.

[LtNOWIS]

Today I took a gubernatorial primary poll on YouTube, where I picked McAuliffe. And I door knocked a little bit for Ayala for Lt. Governor.

The LG race is still a black hole to me. Almost every voter in Alexandria is still undecided, they're more concerned about the city races. Polling's probably useless with so many people undecided. It's one of those things where Ayala might win just because she drew straws to be first on the ballot.

[LabourJersey]

Today I took a gubernatorial primary poll on YouTube, where I picked McAuliffe. And I door knocked a little bit for Ayala for Lt. Governor.

The LG race is still a black hole to me. Almost every voter in Alexandria is still undecided, they're more concerned about the city races. Polling's probably useless with so many people undecided. It's one of those things where Ayala might win just because she drew straws to be first on the ballot.

I don't know any Democrat in Virginia who has a clear, set first choice for Lt. Governor so far.

[Non Swing Voter]

Because literally no one in Virginia can tell the difference between the two candidates for that office (Lt. Governor).  they haven't distinguished themselves.  their ads are the usual, I support women and abortion and hate guns, and love healthcare... ok ... I have no idea who I will vote for.  I wish MT Treasurer (in touch voter with extensive knowledge of Arlington/Fairfax demographics) could help me out. 

On Gov. I am going to vote for Terry because he's the most likely to beat Trumpkin.  Though I do like Foy and her ads.  If she ran for Lt. Gov. I would definitely vote for her....

For AG I'm voting for Herring because the other dude is clearly way too inexperienced for the job in my opinion.  It looks like he is barely out of law school and as far as I can tell he's mostly worked in politics.

For Lt. Gov. I'll probably just leave it blank.

[jamestroll]

Okay.. I know l like 5 Romney-Clinton people in Nova voting for McAufflie.

All these takes on twitter that Youngkin will significantly outperform Trump in Nova are abusrd.


Rest of Virginia tho... uhh

[LtNOWIS]

Because literally no one in Virginia can tell the difference between the two candidates for that office (Lt. Governor).  they haven't distinguished themselves.  their ads are the usual, I support women and abortion and hate guns, and love healthcare... ok ... I have no idea who I will vote for.  I wish MT Treasurer (in touch voter with extensive knowledge of Arlington/Fairfax demographics) could help me out. 

On Gov. I am going to vote for Terry because he's the most likely to beat Trumpkin.  Though I do like Foy and her ads.  If she ran for Lt. Gov. I would definitely vote for her....

For AG I'm voting for Herring because the other dude is clearly way too inexperienced for the job in my opinion.  It looks like he is barely out of law school and as far as I can tell he's mostly worked in politics.

For Lt. Gov. I'll probably just leave it blank.

I mean the tea leaves seem pretty clear to me. Ayala is aligned with Northam and House Democratic leadership and other establishment elements, and was endorsed by them. She endorsed Biden in the 2020 primary. Rasoul is aligned with Warren/Sanders Democrats, and was endorsed by the Sunrise Movement and so forth. He endorsed Warren in 2020. Guzman endorsed Sanders but she dropped out, so Rasoul takes over that lane.

And those are the frontrunners, with a pretty clear ideological divide. Besides that, McClellan has support in Hampton Roads but Northam having beef with her would seem to block her out of the establishment lane. Perryman has a lot of inexplicable endorsements in Fairfax County but I don't think he's broken out of the pack at all. Levine has a lot of money but I've literally door knocked a lot in his district and only one person mentioned his name. Warren has no money or support and is irrelevant.

So like, I could be wrong, but it seems like a pretty clear choice between the two wings of the party. And then with that you also look at the representational aspects. Is it bad if the Dems nominate an all-male slate for the 3rd time in a row, with Rasoul? Is it a dire mistake if the Dems nominate an all-NOVA ticket of McAuliffe/Ayala/Herring?

That's what you have to work with. Platform/positions is not very relevant, they're all Dems and can all break Senate ties just as easily.

[Non Swing Voter]

Because literally no one in Virginia can tell the difference between the two candidates for that office (Lt. Governor).  they haven't distinguished themselves.  their ads are the usual, I support women and abortion and hate guns, and love healthcare... ok ... I have no idea who I will vote for.  I wish MT Treasurer (in touch voter with extensive knowledge of Arlington/Fairfax demographics) could help me out. 

On Gov. I am going to vote for Terry because he's the most likely to beat Trumpkin.  Though I do like Foy and her ads.  If she ran for Lt. Gov. I would definitely vote for her....

For AG I'm voting for Herring because the other dude is clearly way too inexperienced for the job in my opinion.  It looks like he is barely out of law school and as far as I can tell he's mostly worked in politics.

For Lt. Gov. I'll probably just leave it blank.

I mean the tea leaves seem pretty clear to me. Ayala is aligned with Northam and House Democratic leadership and other establishment elements, and was endorsed by them. She endorsed Biden in the 2020 primary. Rasoul is aligned with Warren/Sanders Democrats, and was endorsed by the Sunrise Movement and so forth. He endorsed Warren in 2020. Guzman endorsed Sanders but she dropped out, so Rasoul takes over that lane.

And those are the frontrunners, with a pretty clear ideological divide. Besides that, McClellan has support in Hampton Roads but Northam having beef with her would seem to block her out of the establishment lane. Perryman has a lot of inexplicable endorsements in Fairfax County but I don't think he's broken out of the pack at all. Levine has a lot of money but I've literally door knocked a lot in his district and only one person mentioned his name. Warren has no money or support and is irrelevant.

So like, I could be wrong, but it seems like a pretty clear choice between the two wings of the party. And then with that you also look at the representational aspects. Is it bad if the Dems nominate an all-male slate for the 3rd time in a row, with Rasoul? Is it a dire mistake if the Dems nominate an all-NOVA ticket of McAuliffe/Ayala/Herring?

That's what you have to work with. Platform/positions is not very relevant, they're all Dems and can all break Senate ties just as easily.

Thank you for that clarification.  If that's the case then they are doing a bad job with messaging because I really had no idea who was on the Bernie side versus the Biden side.  If that's the case though, I'll definitely be voting for Ayala. 

And no I don't think it's a dire mistake to nominate an all NOVA ticket.  All Dems need to do is juice turnout in NOVA and perform as usual among minority voters downstate.  They might not win by a Biden margin but they'll win. 

[DINGO Joe]

So, nobody has polled the race for more than a month now?