Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Frodo]

I can live with this choice, and would advise Democrats in both chambers to let her nomination sail through.  Amazingly enough despite having served on Sen. Amanda Chase's staff, Susan Beals is a sane Republican who doesn't buy into Trump's election lies (echoed by her onetime boss), and therefore isn't MAGA, which is a point in her favor especially for her new position as Virginia's next election commissioner:

Youngkin appoints Susan Beals as Virginia’s new elections commissioner

[Roll Roons]

I can live with this choice, and would advise Democrats in both chambers to let her nomination sail through.  Amazingly enough despite having served on Sen. Amanda Chase's staff, Susan Beals is a sane Republican who doesn't buy into Trump's election lies (echoed by her onetime boss), and therefore isn't MAGA, which is a point in her favor especially for her new position as Virginia's next election commissioner:

Youngkin appoints Susan Beals as Virginia’s new elections commissioner

You know, I remember someone on here saying that if "Trumpkin" won, the 2024 election result in VA wouldn't matter because he'd steal it no matter what. So much for that hysteria.

[jamestroll]

I can live with this choice, and would advise Democrats in both chambers to let her nomination sail through.  Amazingly enough despite having served on Sen. Amanda Chase's staff, Susan Beals is a sane Republican who doesn't buy into Trump's election lies (echoed by her onetime boss), and therefore isn't MAGA, which is a point in her favor especially for her new position as Virginia's next election commissioner:

Youngkin appoints Susan Beals as Virginia’s new elections commissioner

You know, I remember someone on here saying that if "Trumpkin" won, the 2024 election result in VA wouldn't matter because he'd steal it no matter what. So much for that hysteria.

Ohh its going to be contested.. trust me..but will be free and fair

[jamestroll]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

While "even swing" is never a real thing that happens, for fun here is how an R victory looks in VA under such an even swing.



(click to enlarge)

Indeed, the GOP doesn't even need to come close in any of those. While even swing is unrealistic, cutting dems to the low-mid 50s would in those counties would be more than enough. Of course, the GOP also does need north Korean margins out of the rural areas.

The GOP does need to win some suburban counties  outright though, most notably: Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Stafford and Chseterfield

Honestly, the Dem vote is insanely concentrated into just a handful of jurisdictions. Even under even swing, if for some bizarre reason the GOP managed a 10 point victory, they'd be cutting dems to just like 4 counties lol

Really good job there! I was trying to find this post!

[Frodo]

VA Gov. Youngkin signs 100 bills into law, including giving parents more say in schools

[Roll Roons]

Amazing: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1516187403093950469

[Unelectable Bystander]

Amazing: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1516187403093950469

He may need to run for president

[Calthrina950]

Amazing: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1516187403093950469

And I had thought Youngkin was unpopular. His victory last year certainly demonstrated that Virginia is not unwinnable for Republicans, at least at the state level.

[Sestak]

Amazing: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1516187403093950469

Wow, very good result for Youngkin in Zogby. He’s almost as dominant in the state as Romney was!

[S019]

Apparently Zogby hasn't ruined his reputation enough yet, if people are still holding up him as an accurate pollster.

[jamestroll]

The GOP can carry Virginia in 2024 but I am not as confident or adamant about it as the 2021 gubernatorial election

[Frodo]

Governor Glenn Youngkin clearly has national ambitions:

Youngkin eyeing national politics, while Va. business remains delayed

Assuming Trump runs once again for the 2024 GOP nomination (which is his if he wants it, let's be honest here), perhaps Youngkin could be his running-mate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Amazing: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1516187403093950469

Obligatory lol Zogby

[jamestroll]

This thread and the election was certainly fun.

Right as Joe Biden won in November 2020, I immediately saw an opening for the GOP to win Virginia in 2021.

My co workers and neighbors were in a Nova bubble and could not see a Republican winning statewide. They do not even have to live among high crime rates, inflation was not as noticeable in the Nova region due to already high cost of living, they did not under draconian measures of other Democratic ran localities during covid. So they were literally in a bubble.

What I saw was a state with a very large rural and southern cultured population, with Joe Biden doing actually relatively in the southern part of the state! A large part of the reason of Democrats winning 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020, was due to a relatively impressive rural vote. 

Also online, I saw  Loudoun/PwC/Fairfax in 2020 maxed out for Democrats as I did not other potential voters for Democrats to tap in to. Bluntly, they are too wealthy to go much, if at all, above their 2020 performance. But once you go online and see some Republicans call them "Romney-Clinton" counties... uh.... no. Way over simplistic. They seem to forget that about the massive growth in Loudoun and Prince William County. These are not the same as 2004, 2008, 2009, or even 2014. Also the parties have changed a bit since 2004 which flipped some voters.

And of course online.... I saw.. virtually all Dems calling it a solid bloo state... based off of tenuous results and data.

November 2nd, 2021 was a fun night for me. At least the "va is a solid blue state" and "nova only voted dem due to trump" takes have not been widely mentioned since.

But Democrats can not be an effective national party with their messaging and with ceding the white working class. The suburban strategy will not always work. Most suburbs are not Nova and there is a limit to high Democrats can perform in very wealthy areas elsewhere in the country. Note that Henrico County had a higher margin for the Democrats compared to Loudoun. Depending on who moves into and out of Loudoun, I expect Henrico to consistent vote to the left of Loudoun and probably Prince William.

Local campaigns, candidate quality, etc still matter even in this hyper partisan age. But it is why Youngkin, running the best campaign I have ever seen, was only able to defeat the Democrat by 1.9 points, and the GOP was unable to defeat any Nova Democratic incumbents. The anti-intellectualism GOP is a huge turn off in Northern Virginia. Also, I tend to dislike takes like "post dobbs" ratings, but if the current Supreme Court puts limits on the executive branch and over reaches in their rulings, I could see impacting Virginia more than other states. I still have it a bit to the left of the country, and as a pragmatic state. So right wing judicial activism is not going to play well here, especially if the federal government is attacked on its power. Which impacts people directly or indirectly in Nova.

I also have been seeing more a return lately of decisive racial and religious rhetoric in the GOP. Yea.... that is not going to play well in Northern Virginia. It is part of the reason of the huge swing from Obama to Clinton in 2016.

Nova will be a solid Dem voting block for a long time.

People did play the "I am not from here card". Sometimes, when you are completely unbiased and disconnected, you can make better judgements.

But still:

Clinton won it by 5 with Tim Kaine on the ticket and Trump pulled out of the state in 2016. It was winnable for Trump in 2016 statewide, though difficult.

Democrats: Please do not try to max out suburbs and cede the white working class nationally.. it did not work in VA in 2021 (but usually will work in this state), but it would make a place like Michigan impossible.

[jamestroll]

Amazing: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1516187403093950469

He has been trying to stay as low key as possible, but I am concerned he is trying to run for President. He should focus on governing Virginia.

But there is a reason he is pushing  a 15 or 20 week abortion ban, versus a Texas style abortion ban.

But his popularity will not help the GOP in 2025. I kind of expect a Republican to win in 2024 and the state's over all lean will make it very difficult for a Republican to win the 2025 gubernatorial election. But that is a long time from now.

[jamestroll]

I say this as someone who typically oppose cash bail, and I believe largely abolishing cash bail has been unfairly criticized by some on the right. It was just implemented at bad timing during rising crime rates.

The localities in Nova have largely liberalized on criminal justice issues. The situation is that crime is low in Nova to begin with. So there was not a huge backlash to crime compared to other suburbia. Example of bubble living.

Route 50 can be pretty rough, but is nothing compared to Baltimore or what I saw in St. Louis or Salt Lake City personally.

But VA democrats should campaign and assume that the 2021 results in Nova are standard while adding a couple of points to Loudoun due to local issues and campaign in the rest of the state assuming that.

So basically, the region was lightly impacted by inflation, did not have to live under draconian covid measures unless they went into DC, had a low crime rate, and people here are more "worldly" and blamed many problems on external forces. Combine that with the parties changing since 2004 and demographic change: there was never going to gop revival in Nova in 2021. They did not even have to live through BLM riots except a handful of small disturbances near Manassas.

The voters that switched in Nova were swing voter due to national climate, or pissed off rightfully about school situations, or disliked the state democratic campaign of 2021. And of course a bit of very wealthy Biden only votes that did not vote for Wexton. Most of these switchers will not be reliable Democrats in 2022 or going forward.

Wealthy whites in Fairfax, Arlington,  and Alexandria lean to the Democrats pretty clearly but narrowly. But in rest of nova, they are a strong GOP vote. Maybe a little less than the small white working class in pwc and loudoun though.

But I am going be outta here! I loved it, but it is soul sucking and once I had opportunity that was appropriate in a place that is a more natural I took it. But ill certainly visit Virginia in the future many times !

[Senator Incitatus]

Youngkin is clearly one of the top contenders in a Trump-less field, though he really, really needs to work on his charisma.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Andy Beshear has the same Approvals

[wbrocks67]

Youngkin is clearly one of the top contenders in a Trump-less field, though he really, really needs to work on his charisma.

LMAO, what? How? The base would've never voted for Youngkin in a primary.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I say this as someone who typically oppose cash bail, and I believe largely abolishing cash bail has been unfairly criticized by some on the right. It was just implemented at bad timing during rising crime rates.

The localities in Nova have largely liberalized on criminal justice issues. The situation is that crime is low in Nova to begin with. So there was not a huge backlash to crime compared to other suburbia. Example of bubble living.

Route 50 can be pretty rough, but is nothing compared to Baltimore or what I saw in St. Louis or Salt Lake City personally.

But VA democrats should campaign and assume that the 2021 results in Nova are standard while adding a couple of points to Loudoun due to local issues and campaign in the rest of the state assuming that.

So basically, the region was lightly impacted by inflation, did not have to live under draconian covid measures unless they went into DC, had a low crime rate, and people here are more "worldly" and blamed many problems on external forces. Combine that with the parties changing since 2004 and demographic change: there was never going to gop revival in Nova in 2021. They did not even have to live through BLM riots except a handful of small disturbances near Manassas.

The voters that switched in Nova were swing voter due to national climate, or pissed off rightfully about school situations, or disliked the state democratic campaign of 2021. And of course a bit of very wealthy Biden only votes that did not vote for Wexton. Most of these switchers will not be reliable Democrats in 2022 or going forward.

Wealthy whites in Fairfax, Arlington,  and Alexandria lean to the Democrats pretty clearly but narrowly. But in rest of nova, they are a strong GOP vote. Maybe a little less than the small white working class in pwc and loudoun though.

But I am going be outta here! I loved it, but it is soul sucking and once I had opportunity that was appropriate in a place that is a more natural I took it. But ill certainly visit Virginia in the future many times !

Interesting analysis. Though I think COVID restrictions def had an impact on NOVA, especially when it came to schools which was seen as a “failure of big government”

NOVA is always a bit weird to analyze since there’s not a ton of polictical or racial geography compared to most metros; it’s really one giant diverse blue leaning bubble.

I suspect Biden got close to maximal NOVA numbers in 2020, at least for now, because he nearly cracked 70% of the vote in Fairfax which is unusual for such a diverse county without a significant African American population or being at the immediate downtown of a city. Also the county has swung left faster than population shifts could account for.

With that being said, Youngkin prolly got close to maximal numbers for an R without a National coalition change. What’s notable though is McAuliffe still did better than Obama and other pre-Trump Dems in Nova suggesting a lot of the gains are here to stay and that normally Dems should be ok in Virginia on the federal level.

Younkin performance in the Virginia Beach area should concern Dems the most as that still would’ve been a respectable performer for an R even 10 years ago. This could matter a lot for the legislature and Dems ability to get a supermajority due to the concentration of swingy seats in the area, plus ofc VA-02 where Luria loses in 2022 imo.

[Flyersfan232]

This thread and the election was certainly fun.

Right as Joe Biden won in November 2020, I immediately saw an opening for the GOP to win Virginia in 2021.

My co workers and neighbors were in a Nova bubble and could not see a Republican winning statewide. They do not even have to live among high crime rates, inflation was not as noticeable in the Nova region due to already high cost of living, they did not under draconian measures of other Democratic ran localities during covid. So they were literally in a bubble.

What I saw was a state with a very large rural and southern cultured population, with Joe Biden doing actually relatively in the southern part of the state! A large part of the reason of Democrats winning 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020, was due to a relatively impressive rural vote. 

Also online, I saw  Loudoun/PwC/Fairfax in 2020 maxed out for Democrats as I did not other potential voters for Democrats to tap in to. Bluntly, they are too wealthy to go much, if at all, above their 2020 performance. But once you go online and see some Republicans call them "Romney-Clinton" counties... uh.... no. Way over simplistic. They seem to forget that about the massive growth in Loudoun and Prince William County. These are not the same as 2004, 2008, 2009, or even 2014. Also the parties have changed a bit since 2004 which flipped some voters.

And of course online.... I saw.. virtually all Dems calling it a solid bloo state... based off of tenuous results and data.

November 2nd, 2021 was a fun night for me. At least the "va is a solid blue state" and "nova only voted dem due to trump" takes have not been widely mentioned since.

But Democrats can not be an effective national party with their messaging and with ceding the white working class. The suburban strategy will not always work. Most suburbs are not Nova and there is a limit to high Democrats can perform in very wealthy areas elsewhere in the country. Note that Henrico County had a higher margin for the Democrats compared to Loudoun. Depending on who moves into and out of Loudoun, I expect Henrico to consistent vote to the left of Loudoun and probably Prince William.

Local campaigns, candidate quality, etc still matter even in this hyper partisan age. But it is why Youngkin, running the best campaign I have ever seen, was only able to defeat the Democrat by 1.9 points, and the GOP was unable to defeat any Nova Democratic incumbents. The anti-intellectualism GOP is a huge turn off in Northern Virginia. Also, I tend to dislike takes like "post dobbs" ratings, but if the current Supreme Court puts limits on the executive branch and over reaches in their rulings, I could see impacting Virginia more than other states. I still have it a bit to the left of the country, and as a pragmatic state. So right wing judicial activism is not going to play well here, especially if the federal government is attacked on its power. Which impacts people directly or indirectly in Nova.

I also have been seeing more a return lately of decisive racial and religious rhetoric in the GOP. Yea.... that is not going to play well in Northern Virginia. It is part of the reason of the huge swing from Obama to Clinton in 2016.

Nova will be a solid Dem voting block for a long time.

People did play the "I am not from here card". Sometimes, when you are completely unbiased and disconnected, you can make better judgements.

But still:

Clinton won it by 5 with Tim Kaine on the ticket and Trump pulled out of the state in 2016. It was winnable for Trump in 2016 statewide, though difficult.

Democrats: Please do not try to max out suburbs and cede the white working class nationally.. it did not work in VA in 2021 (but usually will work in this state), but it would make a place like Michigan impossible.

how could you have seen trump winning virgina in 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since D's have AZ we don't need VA but Kaine is on the ballot in 24 and it's likely OH can swing back D anyways since Brown is in the ballot in 24 and Ryan is leading Vance it won't matter all that much if DeWINE wins, because Brown won 2012 with Gov Kasich and with Gov DeWine in 2018


Beshear and Manchin can also win reelection Red Appalachian isn't safe R,.just like Northeast isn't Safe D or Rust belt the regions have split party rule that's why Sununu a moderate will win and Hassan will win at the same time Ds can pick up OH Sen with Ryan and Lose GA while Moderate DeWine wins like ke Kasich won


We haven't had two identical maps two election cycles in.row Warnock was always more vulnerable than Osdoff in GA, Osdoff clearly helped Warnock not Warnock helping Osdoff because Warnock is struggling without Osdoff

[jamestroll]

This thread and the election was certainly fun.

Right as Joe Biden won in November 2020, I immediately saw an opening for the GOP to win Virginia in 2021.

My co workers and neighbors were in a Nova bubble and could not see a Republican winning statewide. They do not even have to live among high crime rates, inflation was not as noticeable in the Nova region due to already high cost of living, they did not under draconian measures of other Democratic ran localities during covid. So they were literally in a bubble.

What I saw was a state with a very large rural and southern cultured population, with Joe Biden doing actually relatively in the southern part of the state! A large part of the reason of Democrats winning 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020, was due to a relatively impressive rural vote. 

Also online, I saw  Loudoun/PwC/Fairfax in 2020 maxed out for Democrats as I did not other potential voters for Democrats to tap in to. Bluntly, they are too wealthy to go much, if at all, above their 2020 performance. But once you go online and see some Republicans call them "Romney-Clinton" counties... uh.... no. Way over simplistic. They seem to forget that about the massive growth in Loudoun and Prince William County. These are not the same as 2004, 2008, 2009, or even 2014. Also the parties have changed a bit since 2004 which flipped some voters.

And of course online.... I saw.. virtually all Dems calling it a solid bloo state... based off of tenuous results and data.

November 2nd, 2021 was a fun night for me. At least the "va is a solid blue state" and "nova only voted dem due to trump" takes have not been widely mentioned since.

But Democrats can not be an effective national party with their messaging and with ceding the white working class. The suburban strategy will not always work. Most suburbs are not Nova and there is a limit to high Democrats can perform in very wealthy areas elsewhere in the country. Note that Henrico County had a higher margin for the Democrats compared to Loudoun. Depending on who moves into and out of Loudoun, I expect Henrico to consistent vote to the left of Loudoun and probably Prince William.

Local campaigns, candidate quality, etc still matter even in this hyper partisan age. But it is why Youngkin, running the best campaign I have ever seen, was only able to defeat the Democrat by 1.9 points, and the GOP was unable to defeat any Nova Democratic incumbents. The anti-intellectualism GOP is a huge turn off in Northern Virginia. Also, I tend to dislike takes like "post dobbs" ratings, but if the current Supreme Court puts limits on the executive branch and over reaches in their rulings, I could see impacting Virginia more than other states. I still have it a bit to the left of the country, and as a pragmatic state. So right wing judicial activism is not going to play well here, especially if the federal government is attacked on its power. Which impacts people directly or indirectly in Nova.

I also have been seeing more a return lately of decisive racial and religious rhetoric in the GOP. Yea.... that is not going to play well in Northern Virginia. It is part of the reason of the huge swing from Obama to Clinton in 2016.

Nova will be a solid Dem voting block for a long time.

People did play the "I am not from here card". Sometimes, when you are completely unbiased and disconnected, you can make better judgements.

But still:

Clinton won it by 5 with Tim Kaine on the ticket and Trump pulled out of the state in 2016. It was winnable for Trump in 2016 statewide, though difficult.

Democrats: Please do not try to max out suburbs and cede the white working class nationally.. it did not work in VA in 2021 (but usually will work in this state), but it would make a place like Michigan impossible.

how could you have seen trump winning virgina in 2016

Well, Trump did pull out of the state and virtually conceded it.

It was a bit less diverse back at that time and if Trump was able to obtain more of the rural vote and have it vote more comparable to southern rural areas, he could have won it in a close finish.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This thread and the election was certainly fun.

Right as Joe Biden won in November 2020, I immediately saw an opening for the GOP to win Virginia in 2021.

My co workers and neighbors were in a Nova bubble and could not see a Republican winning statewide. They do not even have to live among high crime rates, inflation was not as noticeable in the Nova region due to already high cost of living, they did not under draconian measures of other Democratic ran localities during covid. So they were literally in a bubble.

What I saw was a state with a very large rural and southern cultured population, with Joe Biden doing actually relatively in the southern part of the state! A large part of the reason of Democrats winning 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020, was due to a relatively impressive rural vote. 

Also online, I saw  Loudoun/PwC/Fairfax in 2020 maxed out for Democrats as I did not other potential voters for Democrats to tap in to. Bluntly, they are too wealthy to go much, if at all, above their 2020 performance. But once you go online and see some Republicans call them "Romney-Clinton" counties... uh.... no. Way over simplistic. They seem to forget that about the massive growth in Loudoun and Prince William County. These are not the same as 2004, 2008, 2009, or even 2014. Also the parties have changed a bit since 2004 which flipped some voters.

And of course online.... I saw.. virtually all Dems calling it a solid bloo state... based off of tenuous results and data.

November 2nd, 2021 was a fun night for me. At least the "va is a solid blue state" and "nova only voted dem due to trump" takes have not been widely mentioned since.

But Democrats can not be an effective national party with their messaging and with ceding the white working class. The suburban strategy will not always work. Most suburbs are not Nova and there is a limit to high Democrats can perform in very wealthy areas elsewhere in the country. Note that Henrico County had a higher margin for the Democrats compared to Loudoun. Depending on who moves into and out of Loudoun, I expect Henrico to consistent vote to the left of Loudoun and probably Prince William.

Local campaigns, candidate quality, etc still matter even in this hyper partisan age. But it is why Youngkin, running the best campaign I have ever seen, was only able to defeat the Democrat by 1.9 points, and the GOP was unable to defeat any Nova Democratic incumbents. The anti-intellectualism GOP is a huge turn off in Northern Virginia. Also, I tend to dislike takes like "post dobbs" ratings, but if the current Supreme Court puts limits on the executive branch and over reaches in their rulings, I could see impacting Virginia more than other states. I still have it a bit to the left of the country, and as a pragmatic state. So right wing judicial activism is not going to play well here, especially if the federal government is attacked on its power. Which impacts people directly or indirectly in Nova.

I also have been seeing more a return lately of decisive racial and religious rhetoric in the GOP. Yea.... that is not going to play well in Northern Virginia. It is part of the reason of the huge swing from Obama to Clinton in 2016.

Nova will be a solid Dem voting block for a long time.

People did play the "I am not from here card". Sometimes, when you are completely unbiased and disconnected, you can make better judgements.

But still:

Clinton won it by 5 with Tim Kaine on the ticket and Trump pulled out of the state in 2016. It was winnable for Trump in 2016 statewide, though difficult.

Democrats: Please do not try to max out suburbs and cede the white working class nationally.. it did not work in VA in 2021 (but usually will work in this state), but it would make a place like Michigan impossible.

how could you have seen trump winning virgina in 2016

Well, Trump did pull out of the state and virtually conceded it.

It was a bit less diverse back at that time and if Trump was able to obtain more of the rural vote and have it vote more comparable to southern rural areas, he could have won it in a close finish.

In hindsight, I don't think Trump would've ever won VA in 2016 unless for some reason he was doing a few points better nationally. He still got very solid swings in most of rural VA and if he put more resources into the state, Clinton would've also put more to counteract it.

Long term, Rs really shouldn't invest in the state on the federal level. Nice for them if they win it, but it's not a state they need and just has too many factors working against them at this point.

[Frodo]

Looks like no more Confederate statues (under state jurisdiction) in Virginia are going to be taken down until the end of this administration:

Youngkin appoints Confederate statue defender to historic resources board