Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

What do you all make of Youngkin's underwhelming showing among Hispanic and Asian voters? According to the exit poll, he underperformed Trump with both grups — obviously these should be taken with a grain of salt given the small sample size, but it’s fairly obvious that the race wouldn’t have been this close if he had done better with non-white voters. Should this be a potential cause for concern for NV/GA Republicans and could it be a data point in favor of the theory that 2012->2016 trends will be a stronger force than 2016->2020 trends in the 2022 elections (which may also be a bad sign for Democrats in the Midwest and New England)?

Obviously one shouldn’t extrapolate too much from one race, but GOP gains in VA were distributed extremely evenly across the state, mostly fueled by gains with white voters (who made up a larger proportion of the electorate than in 2020) and slight inroads into the black vote. I think (please correct me if I’m wrong) precinct analysis confirmed that dramatic Republican gains with Hispanic and Asian voters failed to materialize, which may also explain why Prince William County voted 4 points to the left of Loudoun (after voting 1 point to its left in 2020).

Prince William County was an interesting county. Competing forces of the heavy minority vote along with the white population being more rural Virginia cultured. The higher turnout of whites probably is way PwC is the sole Nova jurisdiction that Youngkin did not do worse than Romney.

Loudoun has been explained many times. The fact that it trended left from the 2017 results amuses me. I would not have held it against them if they voted for Youngkin, considering everything going on there.

Minorities are just a heavy support of the Democratic Party and that the the 2020 results were due to minorities concurrently being more pro-incumbent and their jobs being more likely to have been shut down due to Covid-19 lay offs.

Virginia having a relatively large white population is why I am pushing the "lean Dem" narrative going forward rather than likely or safe Dem. I know I have been overly aggressive of Virginia not being safe Democrat for over two years now but I think I was proven right.

Also white voters in Virginia seemed to be more upset at virtual schooling and much of the Youngkin campaign had a "bring back old virginy" tint.

[jamestroll]

Are there any scientific polls that show what Virginians think of Youngkin?
Not these half-baked bits and pieces of anecdotal evidence?

No. He hasn't even been governor a month and hasnt done anything other than try to end mandatory masks in schools. All of this "OMG buyers remorse everyone hates him now" nonsense from the hacks is ridiculous. What, because he nominated a conservative no one has even heard of to a cabinet position and the guy wasnt even approved somehow people who voted for him now regret it? Like, seriously, I havent seen anything he's done that would prompt "buyers remorse". This is just hacks being hacks because they are desperate to talk about virginia even though there isnt anything yet to talk about. Again, hes been governor for like 3 weeks. What has he done to chase away scores of voters other than not be a democrat?

I can agree with you that most things will be predictable and boring for a while.

2022: Wexton wins narrowly, Luria loses convincingly but not landslided and Spanberger may get lucky.

2023: Democrats probably retake the HoD based on redistricting as long as Biden's isn't too far down in approval. Down to the wire at the end of the night.

2024: Democrats win Virginia  like by 4 to 5 points.

Democrats are lucky a substantial white Democratic population exists in Nova. Other wise, those results wouldn't be happening if my predictions are right. Hopefully for Democratic sake, they stay in Nova.

Youngkin is not the one who I am most angry at. It is the Attorney General. Sears is ok.. I voted for her out of anger.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1491486226636939271?cxt=HHwWjoCp...

Petersen and Morrissey.

The mask ending bill also passed thanks to Petersen and Morrisey.

[Unelectable Bystander]

What do you all make of Youngkin's underwhelming showing among Hispanic and Asian voters? According to the exit poll, he underperformed Trump with both grups — obviously these should be taken with a grain of salt given the small sample size, but it’s fairly obvious that the race wouldn’t have been this close if he had done better with non-white voters. Should this be a potential cause for concern for NV/GA Republicans and could it be a data point in favor of the theory that 2012->2016 trends will be a stronger force than 2016->2020 trends in the 2022 elections (which may also be a bad sign for Democrats in the Midwest and New England)?

Obviously one shouldn’t extrapolate too much from one race, but GOP gains in VA were distributed extremely evenly across the state, mostly fueled by gains with white voters (who made up a larger proportion of the electorate than in 2020) and slight inroads into the black vote. I think (please correct me if I’m wrong) precinct analysis confirmed that dramatic Republican gains with Hispanic and Asian voters failed to materialize, which may also explain why Prince William County voted 4 points to the left of Loudoun (after voting 1 point to its left in 2020).

I was wondering the same thing sir and I’m a little concerned. A strong hispanic trend should have included outsized gains in places like PWC given the environment. Black improvements seem mostly driven by low turnout in black precincts. It also invalidates some of the bizarre predictions that Denton county will be voting to the left of Harris because of college educated white trends since 2012 and Hispanic trends since 2016 being extrapolated 20 years lol

[lfromnj]

If I was Glenn youngkin I would push a bill that atleast reverts Thomas Jeffersons admission system. Chap petersens wife is Asian and he argued quite personally with many black state senators about it.

[jamestroll]

If I was Glenn youngkin I would push bill that atleast reverts Thomas Jeffersons admission system. Chap petersens wife is Asian and he argued quite personally with many black state senators about it.

I remember people saying fairfax county would flip to youngkin over it. It wasn't the main thing people voted on.

Ugh twitter is awful.

[lfromnj]

If I was Glenn youngkin I would push bill that atleast reverts Thomas Jeffersons admission system. Chap petersens wife is Asian and he argued quite personally with many black state senators about it.

I remember people saying fairfax county would flip to youngkin over it. It wasn't the main thing people voted on.

Ugh twitter is awful.

I mean the point is that its good conservative policy that he could eventually get through.

[ElectionsGuy]

What do you all make of Youngkin's underwhelming showing among Hispanic and Asian voters? According to the exit poll, he underperformed Trump with both grups — obviously these should be taken with a grain of salt given the small sample size, but it’s fairly obvious that the race wouldn’t have been this close if he had done better with non-white voters. Should this be a potential cause for concern for NV/GA Republicans and could it be a data point in favor of the theory that 2012->2016 trends will be a stronger force than 2016->2020 trends in the 2022 elections (which may also be a bad sign for Democrats in the Midwest and New England)?

Obviously one shouldn’t extrapolate too much from one race, but GOP gains in VA were distributed extremely evenly across the state, mostly fueled by gains with white voters (who made up a larger proportion of the electorate than in 2020) and slight inroads into the black vote. I think (please correct me if I’m wrong) precinct analysis confirmed that dramatic Republican gains with Hispanic and Asian voters failed to materialize, which may also explain why Prince William County voted 4 points to the left of Loudoun (after voting 1 point to its left in 2020).

I'm not exactly sure that's true or if we can trust the exit polls. But maybe it's the case that Youngkin did better than Trump but still did worse relative to the overall statewide vote. The exit polls claim in 2020 that Biden won 65% of Hispanics and 87% of blacks. In reality, based on precinct data, it's likely Biden did worse with Hispanics but better with blacks than those numbers say.

I remember seeing an analysis of Fairfax County precincts where the parts that swung most to the left were the whitest, and the ones that swung the least or swung right were more heavily non-white. In 2022, the electorate is likelier to be whiter and older anyway, so that'll help Republicans, but there definitely is a small portion of Hispanics that will vote for Trump but don't like traditional Republicans. In the RGV for instance, Trump did better than Cornyn, despite doing 4 points worse in the state overall. In 2022 I suspect we'll see a rightward trend with Hispanics (2016/2018-2022) which will be a large swing, but relative to the national vote a smaller trend than in 2020.

[lfromnj]

What do you all make of Youngkin's underwhelming showing among Hispanic and Asian voters? According to the exit poll, he underperformed Trump with both grups — obviously these should be taken with a grain of salt given the small sample size, but it’s fairly obvious that the race wouldn’t have been this close if he had done better with non-white voters. Should this be a potential cause for concern for NV/GA Republicans and could it be a data point in favor of the theory that 2012->2016 trends will be a stronger force than 2016->2020 trends in the 2022 elections (which may also be a bad sign for Democrats in the Midwest and New England)?

Obviously one shouldn’t extrapolate too much from one race, but GOP gains in VA were distributed extremely evenly across the state, mostly fueled by gains with white voters (who made up a larger proportion of the electorate than in 2020) and slight inroads into the black vote. I think (please correct me if I’m wrong) precinct analysis confirmed that dramatic Republican gains with Hispanic and Asian voters failed to materialize, which may also explain why Prince William County voted 4 points to the left of Loudoun (after voting 1 point to its left in 2020).

I'm not exactly sure that's true or if we can trust the exit polls. But maybe it's the case that Youngkin did better than Trump but still did worse relative to the overall statewide vote. The exit polls claim in 2020 that Biden won 65% of Hispanics and 87% of blacks. In reality, based on precinct data, it's likely Biden did worse with Hispanics but better with blacks than those numbers say.

I remember seeing an analysis of Fairfax County precincts where the parts that swung most to the left were the whitest, and the ones that swung the least or swung right were more heavily non-white. In 2022, the electorate is likelier to be whiter and older anyway, so that'll help Republicans, but there definitely is a small portion of Hispanics that will vote for Trump but don't like traditional Republicans. In the RGV for instance, Trump did better than Cornyn, despite doing 4 points worse in the state overall. In 2022 I suspect we'll see a rightward trend with Hispanics (2016/2018-2022) which will be a large swing, but relative to the national vote a smaller trend than in 2020.

Only true in the more rural counties. Cornyn did better in most of Hidalgo. He actually won TX 15th! Anyway NOVA isn't segregated enough to get any effective results but I can say that Murphy actually outperformed Biden in the largest townships until you reach Edison(which is a suburb)

[lfromnj]

https://www.dailypress.com/government/virginia/vp-nw-mercury-governors-schools-20220203-n4acwjxegjbd5aerw2vxni6jwa-story.html

Looks like the bill is already there for TJ schools.

[jamestroll]

https://www.dailypress.com/government/virginia/vp-nw-mercury-governors-schools-20220203-n4acwjxegjbd5aerw2vxni6jwa-story.html

Looks like the bill is already there for TJ schools.

Meh seems like cold button issue to me but I will say that placing someone in a program that they are not prepared for and ill suited for is not helping anyone.

[DaleCooper]

What do you all make of Youngkin's underwhelming showing among Hispanic and Asian voters? According to the exit poll, he underperformed Trump with both grups — obviously these should be taken with a grain of salt given the small sample size, but it’s fairly obvious that the race wouldn’t have been this close if he had done better with non-white voters. Should this be a potential cause for concern for NV/GA Republicans and could it be a data point in favor of the theory that 2012->2016 trends will be a stronger force than 2016->2020 trends in the 2022 elections (which may also be a bad sign for Democrats in the Midwest and New England)?

Obviously one shouldn’t extrapolate too much from one race, but GOP gains in VA were distributed extremely evenly across the state, mostly fueled by gains with white voters (who made up a larger proportion of the electorate than in 2020) and slight inroads into the black vote. I think (please correct me if I’m wrong) precinct analysis confirmed that dramatic Republican gains with Hispanic and Asian voters failed to materialize, which may also explain why Prince William County voted 4 points to the left of Loudoun (after voting 1 point to its left in 2020).

I think the answer here ultimately comes down to whether or not the minority backlash against Democrats in 2020 stemmed from opposition to overbearing COVID policies or opposition to the Democrats' tacit endorsement of rioting. If it's the former then the GOP will probably do just well enough to hold their gains in 2022, though I have long suspected it was the latter, and the results in Virginia may support that unless you can blame it on "low-turnout Trump voters" which I'd rather not do, though I suppose that could be the case. Obviously, the rioting is not so prominent anymore, which means that the Republicans would have to maintain their gains through the appeal of their messaging and platform. 

This raises the issue that culturally, the Republican Party still very much looks like the Tea Party, and with Trump out of the picture more or less for the time being, they're reverting back to a lot of those cultural issues. While some of their grievances regarding Critical Race Theory are legitimate, most of this drama is just about banning "offensive" books, and it's like something straight out of Dubya's Republican Party. Basically, the GOP needs to actually demonstrate its evolution if it wants to solidify a new coalition. The accusation that Democrats only care about soccer moms, even if true, won't be compelling if the Republicans are still having public meltdowns over Anne Frank's diary being in the school library.

Also, to answer your question about the other states, I think that Republicans will win Nevada, but I think that they're going to lose Georgia. I don't know about the Governor's race, but I think Senator Warnock will win and if not it's going to be real close.

[Skill and Chance]

What do you all make of Youngkin's underwhelming showing among Hispanic and Asian voters? According to the exit poll, he underperformed Trump with both grups — obviously these should be taken with a grain of salt given the small sample size, but it’s fairly obvious that the race wouldn’t have been this close if he had done better with non-white voters. Should this be a potential cause for concern for NV/GA Republicans and could it be a data point in favor of the theory that 2012->2016 trends will be a stronger force than 2016->2020 trends in the 2022 elections (which may also be a bad sign for Democrats in the Midwest and New England)?

Obviously one shouldn’t extrapolate too much from one race, but GOP gains in VA were distributed extremely evenly across the state, mostly fueled by gains with white voters (who made up a larger proportion of the electorate than in 2020) and slight inroads into the black vote. I think (please correct me if I’m wrong) precinct analysis confirmed that dramatic Republican gains with Hispanic and Asian voters failed to materialize, which may also explain why Prince William County voted 4 points to the left of Loudoun (after voting 1 point to its left in 2020).

Geographically, it was a surprising vote distribution.  I don't think anyone went into this expecting Youngkin > Trump in Appalachia and Southside while NOVA and the Richmond area basically looked like 2016.  All the assumptions going in were that places like Loudoun and Prince William would be shockingly close if Youngkin won and that he would struggle with rural turnout.  This has forced me and many others to reevaluate our assumptions about Trump.

In CA, there were quite a lot of Trump/No-on-Recall voters in majority-Asian areas and not much additional R swing in majority-Hispanic areas.   

IDK if Dems should wish for more 2012-16 trends, though.  It would quickly make Texas a must-win state.

Also worth noting that R's had a > 4% lead in statewide PV for the HoD while the 2 seats that gave them control were both close enough for recounts.  That was even more unexpected.  Back in 2017, R's held the HoD with a 9% D lead statewide.  Most everyone assumed that the HoD would flip even with a narrow McAuliffe win and a modest statewide PV lead for D's.  Instead, they barely broke the tie.  A Youngkin +0.5/Generic HoD R +2.5 result would likely have returned a Dem-controlled HoD!

[Skill and Chance]

Are there any scientific polls that show what Virginians think of Youngkin?
Not these half-baked bits and pieces of anecdotal evidence?

No. He hasn't even been governor a month and hasnt done anything other than try to end mandatory masks in schools. All of this "OMG buyers remorse everyone hates him now" nonsense from the hacks is ridiculous. What, because he nominated a conservative no one has even heard of to a cabinet position and the guy wasnt even approved somehow people who voted for him now regret it? Like, seriously, I havent seen anything he's done that would prompt "buyers remorse". This is just hacks being hacks because they are desperate to talk about virginia even though there isnt anything yet to talk about. Again, hes been governor for like 3 weeks. What has he done to chase away scores of voters other than not be a democrat?

I can agree with you that most things will be predictable and boring for a while.

2022: Wexton wins narrowly, Luria loses convincingly but not landslided and Spanberger may get lucky.

2023: Democrats probably retake the HoD based on redistricting as long as Biden's isn't too far down in approval. Down to the wire at the end of the night.

2024: Democrats win Virginia  like by 4 to 5 points.

Democrats are lucky a substantial white Democratic population exists in Nova. Other wise, those results wouldn't be happening if my predictions are right. Hopefully for Democratic sake, they stay in Nova.

Youngkin is not the one who I am most angry at. It is the Attorney General. Sears is ok.. I voted for her out of anger.

2022: Luria is almost surely going to lose.  Wexton isn't totally safe, but if her new district flips, it's at least a 2014 level R wave.  Spanberger could go either way.  I could see her holding on in an otherwise very R year or just performing as Generic Dem.  She only outperformed Biden by about 1%, but on the other hand, hardly any congressional Dems anywhere outperformed Biden at all.

2023: This one will be the most interesting.  Any of the 4 possible outcomes seem plausible to me.

Dems flip the HoD back and hold the State Senate:  This would involve the traditional incumbent party bounce in the 3rd year elections vs. the midterm year.  It only requires a modest reversion to the VA mean to win both chambers as the new HoD map is now more favorable.  In a blowout, D's are realistically capped at 24 in the State Senate, but winning well over 60 seats in the HoD is possible.

Dems flip the HoD, GOP flips the State Senate: This would generally involve college town and outer NOVA turnout being high while R's continue to gain with black voters and break through in Hampton Roads/Southside.  They already hold the competitive  HoD seats in those areas, but there are 3 Lean-Likely D Hampton Roads senate seats that could flip.

GOP holds HoD, Dems hold State Senate: Probably involves some ancestral R reversion in outer NOVA and low college turnout, while D's win all the Hampton Roads Clinton seats with high black turnout and/or hold the Trump +1 ancestral D seat in the SW.   

GOP flips State Senate to take a trifecta: The decisive seat to get to a tie went for Biden by more than statewide, but it's doable if Biden's approval stays at least as low as today.  It would also help greatly if the Youngkin Hampton Roads overperformance continues. 

I'm torn between the first and the second scenario for now.  Waiting to see what happens in Hampton Roads and outer NOVA this fall.

2024: Almost surely a Dem win statewide, but almost surely not by double digits next time. 

2026/30: Does new VA-01 flip with a GOP president?

[jamestroll]

Are there any scientific polls that show what Virginians think of Youngkin?
Not these half-baked bits and pieces of anecdotal evidence?

No. He hasn't even been governor a month and hasnt done anything other than try to end mandatory masks in schools. All of this "OMG buyers remorse everyone hates him now" nonsense from the hacks is ridiculous. What, because he nominated a conservative no one has even heard of to a cabinet position and the guy wasnt even approved somehow people who voted for him now regret it? Like, seriously, I havent seen anything he's done that would prompt "buyers remorse". This is just hacks being hacks because they are desperate to talk about virginia even though there isnt anything yet to talk about. Again, hes been governor for like 3 weeks. What has he done to chase away scores of voters other than not be a democrat?

I can agree with you that most things will be predictable and boring for a while.

2022: Wexton wins narrowly, Luria loses convincingly but not landslided and Spanberger may get lucky.

2023: Democrats probably retake the HoD based on redistricting as long as Biden's isn't too far down in approval. Down to the wire at the end of the night.

2024: Democrats win Virginia  like by 4 to 5 points.

Democrats are lucky a substantial white Democratic population exists in Nova. Other wise, those results wouldn't be happening if my predictions are right. Hopefully for Democratic sake, they stay in Nova.

Youngkin is not the one who I am most angry at. It is the Attorney General. Sears is ok.. I voted for her out of anger.

This one will be the most interesting.  Any of the 4 possible outcomes seem plausible to me:

Dems flip the HoD back and hold the State Senate:  This would involve the traditional incumbent party bounce in the 3rd year elections vs. the midterm year.  It only requires a modest reversion to the VA mean to win both chambers as the new HoD map is now more favorable.  In a blowout, D's are realistically capped at 24 in the State Senate, but winning well over 60 seats in the HoD is possible.

Dems flip the HoD, GOP flips the State Senate: This would generally involve college town and outer NOVA turnout being high while R's continue to gain with black voters and break through in Hampton Roads/Southside.  They already hold the competitive  HoD seats in those areas, but there are 3 Lean-Likely D Hampton Roads senate seats that could flip.

GOP holds HoD, Dems hold State Senate: Probably involves some ancestral R reversion in outer NOVA and low college turnout, while D's win all the Hampton Roads Clinton seats with high black turnout and/or hold the Trump +1 ancestral D seat in the SW.    

GOP flips State Senate to take a trifecta: The decisive seat to get to a tie went for Biden by more than statewide, but it's doable if Biden's approval stays at least as low as today.  It would also help greatly if the Youngkin Hampton Roads overperformance continues.  

I'm torn between the first and the second scenario for now.  Waiting to see what happens in Hampton Roads and outer NOVA this fall.

Well, it looks like VA-02, VA-07, and VA-10 were drawn to help us reach those conclusions!

The 2021 Elections proved to me, at least for now barring a huge population transfer, that Nova is staunch Democratic in the totality. Many of those results were impossible as recently as the mcauliffe administration era.

My prediction is that the 2023 elections in both chambers will go down to the wire with slight Democratic majorities in both or a tied Senate and a Dem house of delegates.

Virginia Beach should be quite Republican on paper moving forward. However, the two seats lost there were extremely narrow. And some perspective, The Democrats did better in Virginia Beach compared to the GOP in Loudoun..  A durable GOP majority in Virginia is challenging without a solid Virginia Beach.

I know I was militant against people who said Virginia was solid Democratic but I just did not see any reason or the demographics or the ideology in the state to rate it as solid Democratic. Lean Dem, Yes obviously.

[jamestroll]

2026/30: Does new VA-01 flip with a GOP president?

Hmm, interesting but just do not see it is right now. Henrico is a portion of the new district but the vast  district full of hard liner rural areas makes me inclined to doubt to flip even in the Republican administration. I am sure there will be a few exciting polls though. But that is way to far in the future for me to entertain.

[Skill and Chance]

2026/30: Does new VA-01 flip with a GOP president?

Hmm, interesting but just do not see it is right now. Henrico is a portion of the new district but the vast  district full of hard liner rural areas makes me inclined to doubt to flip even in the Republican administration. I am sure there will be a few exciting polls though. But that is way to far in the future for me to entertain.

It also has the areas along I-64 near Williamsburg with a ton of Trump-Biden voters, though. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I am so worried and terrified for America's teachers. These "anti-CRT" and "curriculum transparency" bills are so vague that even the slightest mention of race or sexuality can get an educator in trouble. The Republican Party has utterly wrecked this country.

[MT Treasurer]

Thanks to everyone for the detailed answers!

I'm not exactly sure that's true or if we can trust the exit polls. But maybe it's the case that Youngkin did better than Trump but still did worse relative to the overall statewide vote. The exit polls claim in 2020 that Biden won 65% of Hispanics and 87% of blacks. In reality, based on precinct data, it's likely Biden did worse with Hispanics but better with blacks than those numbers say.

I remember seeing an analysis of Fairfax County precincts where the parts that swung most to the left were the whitest, and the ones that swung the least or swung right were more heavily non-white. In 2022, the electorate is likelier to be whiter and older anyway, so that'll help Republicans, but there definitely is a small portion of Hispanics that will vote for Trump but don't like traditional Republicans. In the RGV for instance, Trump did better than Cornyn, despite doing 4 points worse in the state overall. In 2022 I suspect we'll see a rightward trend with Hispanics (2016/2018-2022) which will be a large swing, but relative to the national vote a smaller trend than in 2020.

This does make sense and is in line with what I am expecting. While I am unsure about other states (VA, NM, NV, etc.), I do expect Hispanic trends in FL/TX to continue in 2022. My hypothesis is that the Hispanic trend may be predicted by two cultural factors and will first materialize in two types of areas: (a) places with high levels of religiosity and/or a strong aversion to cultural liberalism (incl. 'wokeism' and state-imposed 'authoritarianism,' e.g. in the form of certain COVID policies like mask or vaccine mandates, lockdowns, etc.), mostly in rural/small-town and 'frontier' areas where the rural-urban divide hasn’t yet caught up to voting patterns of Hispanic (and black) voters the way it has with the white vote (esp. in the Midwest); (b) places where there already exists a cohesive or R-friendly Latino community (ideally living in close geographic proximity to each other) and where the individual can "blend in" with the rest of the community by switching parties or derive his ideological identity from his surroundings/community — both of these apply to the RGV; and even in South FL, the GOP & Trump campaign aggressively courted Hispanics via social media (which is arguably an underrated predictor of voting patterns). Neither of these factors was present in VA, where Hispanics largely live in the least religious and most urban/suburban parts of the state (I think we would have seen marked pro-R swings among Hispanics in SWVA if that area were meaningfully Hispanic) and you have no bloc of (formerly) R-leaning migrant communities/minorities, esp. in close geographic proximity to each other or with high levels of social cohesion (I think VA being surprisingly desegregated probably works against the GOP) — compare this to, for instance, the Lumbee tribe in NC right across the VA border, where there are actual signs of a long-term R shift.

If this hypothesis is true, it would make predicting trends in NM and NV more difficult — the "common identity/heritage" and small-town/cultural conservatism & frontier mentality aspects do apply to large parts of NM, but the state is also more urban than people realize (with the caveat that rural/small-town areas in NM do actually make a difference and could make the state genuinely competitive, unlike in CO), and while NV is certainly very urban and largely irreligious, the working-class-identity angle might be strong enough to at least make a dent in D margins with Hispanics (although it’s just as possible that GOP potential in NV has been overstated). In any case, it’s not that hard to understand why FL/TX might be unique when it comes to the extent of the pro-R Hispanic shift.

[jamestroll]

Thanks to everyone for the detailed answers!

You are welcome.

How come many were very adamant that Virginia was Solid Democratic prior to the 2021 elections? I just didn't see the demographics at all for that.

It is pretty obvious that Kaine and Biden will have to campaign a bit in Virginia in 2024 though it obviously will not be a top tier state.

Also why did so many assume the entire swing against Dems would come from Nova?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/ethanclynne/status/1491785714433810455
Thanks VA republicans for giving the dems some nice good old-fashioned red meat to throw at their base.

[jamestroll]

More Youngkin scandals.. coming..

Not all black people look alike.. Come on now!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/02/11/youngkin-lucas-texts-black-history/

[Forum explorer]

You guys could have had Jennifer Foy, but no. You just had to vote for Terry bc he was eLEcTaBle

[jamestroll]

You guys could have had Jennifer Foy, but no. You just had to vote for Terry bc he was eLEcTaBle

She was literally running to keep schools virtual due to COVVIDDD and supported many pandemic restrictions and would have not had the financial resources to compete with Youngkin. She would like lost by 4 to 6 points or more.

Also... every time a candidate loses ... someone always says their primary opponent would have won. There is no way to prove that.

[Biden his time]

Thanks to everyone for the detailed answers!

I'm not exactly sure that's true or if we can trust the exit polls. But maybe it's the case that Youngkin did better than Trump but still did worse relative to the overall statewide vote. The exit polls claim in 2020 that Biden won 65% of Hispanics and 87% of blacks. In reality, based on precinct data, it's likely Biden did worse with Hispanics but better with blacks than those numbers say.

I remember seeing an analysis of Fairfax County precincts where the parts that swung most to the left were the whitest, and the ones that swung the least or swung right were more heavily non-white. In 2022, the electorate is likelier to be whiter and older anyway, so that'll help Republicans, but there definitely is a small portion of Hispanics that will vote for Trump but don't like traditional Republicans. In the RGV for instance, Trump did better than Cornyn, despite doing 4 points worse in the state overall. In 2022 I suspect we'll see a rightward trend with Hispanics (2016/2018-2022) which will be a large swing, but relative to the national vote a smaller trend than in 2020.

This does make sense and is in line with what I am expecting. While I am unsure about other states (VA, NM, NV, etc.), I do expect Hispanic trends in FL/TX to continue in 2022. My hypothesis is that the Hispanic trend may be predicted by two cultural factors and will first materialize in two types of areas: (a) places with high levels of religiosity and/or a strong aversion to cultural liberalism (incl. 'wokeism' and state-imposed 'authoritarianism,' e.g. in the form of certain COVID policies like mask or vaccine mandates, lockdowns, etc.), mostly in rural/small-town and 'frontier' areas where the rural-urban divide hasn’t yet caught up to voting patterns of Hispanic (and black) voters the way it has with the white vote (esp. in the Midwest); (b) places where there already exists a cohesive or R-friendly Latino community (ideally living in close geographic proximity to each other) and where the individual can "blend in" with the rest of the community by switching parties or derive his ideological identity from his surroundings/community — both of these apply to the RGV; and even in South FL, the GOP & Trump campaign aggressively courted Hispanics via social media (which is arguably an underrated predictor of voting patterns). Neither of these factors was present in VA, where Hispanics largely live in the least religious and most urban/suburban parts of the state (I think we would have seen marked pro-R swings among Hispanics in SWVA if that area were meaningfully Hispanic) and you have no bloc of (formerly) R-leaning migrant communities/minorities, esp. in close geographic proximity to each other or with high levels of social cohesion (I think VA being surprisingly desegregated probably works against the GOP) — compare this to, for instance, the Lumbee tribe in NC right across the VA border, where there are actual signs of a long-term R shift.

If this hypothesis is true, it would make predicting trends in NM and NV more difficult — the "common identity/heritage" and small-town/cultural conservatism & frontier mentality aspects do apply to large parts of NM, but the state is also more urban than people realize (with the caveat that rural/small-town areas in NM do actually make a difference and could make the state genuinely competitive, unlike in CO), and while NV is certainly very urban and largely irreligious, the working-class-identity angle might be strong enough to at least make a dent in D margins with Hispanics (although it’s just as possible that GOP potential in NV has been overstated). In any case, it’s not that hard to understand why FL/TX might be unique when it comes to the extent of the pro-R Hispanic shift.

Speaking of religiosity among Hispanic Americans, maybe you'll find this graph showing religious affiliation by state among Hispanic Americans interesting:

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Only including states with at least 1,000 Hispanic respondents in the survey (CA, TX, FL, and NY all had more than 5K Hispanic respondents).

Moreover, another chart showing the importance of religion by state. Since this question was asked of far fewer respondents than the affiliation one, results may be a little spotty. I lowered the threshold to at least 100 Hispanic respondents for this one:

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