Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Virginia could ban abortions after 20 weeks with the help of one particular, maverick Democratic Senator (and a Republican Lt. Governor who can then break the tie in the evenly-divided state Senate):

Virginia GOP supports new abortion restrictions. A key Democrat may support it, too

Here is the summary of the bill in question:

Creates the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act. The Act prohibits an abortion after 20 weeks gestation unless, in reasonable medical judgment, the mother has a condition that so complicates her medical condition as to necessitate the abortion to avert her death or to avert serious risk of substantial and irreversible physical impairment of a major bodily function. When an abortion is not prohibited post-20 weeks' gestation, the physician or authorized nurse practitioner is required to terminate the pregnancy in a manner that would provide the unborn child the best opportunity to survive. The bill punishes performance of an abortion in violation of the Act as a Class 6 felony. The bill also provides for civil remedies against a physician or authorized nurse practitioner who performs an abortion in violation of the Act.

The Democrat in question just so happens to be the pedophile Northam pardoned.

[Calthrina950]

Virginia could ban abortions after 20 weeks with the help of one particular, maverick Democratic Senator (and a Republican Lt. Governor who can then break the tie in the evenly-divided state Senate):

Virginia GOP supports new abortion restrictions. A key Democrat may support it, too

Here is the summary of the bill in question:

Creates the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act. The Act prohibits an abortion after 20 weeks gestation unless, in reasonable medical judgment, the mother has a condition that so complicates her medical condition as to necessitate the abortion to avert her death or to avert serious risk of substantial and irreversible physical impairment of a major bodily function. When an abortion is not prohibited post-20 weeks' gestation, the physician or authorized nurse practitioner is required to terminate the pregnancy in a manner that would provide the unborn child the best opportunity to survive. The bill punishes performance of an abortion in violation of the Act as a Class 6 felony. The bill also provides for civil remedies against a physician or authorized nurse practitioner who performs an abortion in violation of the Act.

The Democrat in question just so happens to be the pedophile Northam pardoned.

One of the few television shows I watch is Law & Order: Special Victims Unit. Joe Morrissey's story would be a good template for a story on that show. And it's what I'm reminded of. Nevertheless,  he's married and has had children with this woman, and they seem to be in a "happy" marriage.

[wbrocks67]

Youngkin has actually been way worse than I think anyone would've imagined. Total buyers remorse in VA  I think.

[Sir Mohamed]

Youngkin has actually been way worse than I think anyone would've imagined. Total buyers remorse in VA  I think.

Yup. VA voters have to live with their choice now, so I'm not feeling all too bad about it, tbh. Elections have consequences.

[Calthrina950]

Youngkin has actually been way worse than I think anyone would've imagined. Total buyers remorse in VA  I think.

Buyer's remorse among independents and swing voters perhaps, but certainly not among the Republican base. And not among the 90% or so of Democrats who still voted for McAuliffe. I'm not sure opinion of Youngkin would be that much better if he governed like Larry Hogan or Charlie Baker.

[ElectionsGuy]

Imagine saying for months preceding the election that Youngkin was the second coming of Trump, "Trumpkin" (also in the title of the thread, lol), and that he was extreme, a bad candidate, and would lose. Then he wins, and now people are having "buyer's remorse" because he just did what he campaigned on?

What did they expect? Some RINO like Charlie Baker? The Democrats on this forum surely didn't expect that, given the reaction at the time and now. But now it's a useful little wedge of a narrative even though it never existed from them before.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Imagine saying for months preceding the election that Youngkin was the second coming of Trump, "Trumpkin" (also in the title of the thread, lol), and that he was extreme, a bad candidate, and would lose. Then he wins, and now people are having "buyer's remorse" because he just did what he campaigned on?

What did they expect? Some RINO like Charlie Baker? The Democrats on this forum surely didn't expect that, given the reaction at the time and now. But now it's a useful little wedge of a narrative even though it never existed from them before.

The same people who said Youngkin couldn’t win or was too radical to win are now saying voters will have buyers remorse due to their new governor doing exactly what he promised he do multiple times during the campaign

[jamestroll]

Imagine saying for months preceding the election that Youngkin was the second coming of Trump, "Trumpkin" (also in the title of the thread, lol), and that he was extreme, a bad candidate, and would lose. Then he wins, and now people are having "buyer's remorse" because he just did what he campaigned on?

What did they expect? Some RINO like Charlie Baker? The Democrats on this forum surely didn't expect that, given the reaction at the time and now. But now it's a useful little wedge of a narrative even though it never existed from them before.

Viriginia is not a "safe gop state".

[jamestroll]

Let's see...

I know it was obviously Trumpkin would win. Terry Mcauliffe running a joke of a campaign, Ayala and Herring not being visible, Virginia being more sensitive and opposed to covid measures compared to other blue states, Youngkin running one of the most disciplined campaigns I have ever seen and campaigning on the right issues. All this while the state Democrats went to far left. 

The Democrats still ended up doing a bit better in VA-Gov 2021 compared to MD-Gov 2014.

The only point the GOP has in its favor of the state becoming a GOP state was the consistency of the results in Virginia.

A hypothetical senate race probably would not have went to the Republicans in the 2021 elections.

[wbrocks67]

Buyers remorse for Indies and Dems who crossed over, of course. No one's talking about the GOP base, who is probably excited that Youngkin is way more R than he campaigned on.

[MT Treasurer]

Except that Youngkin didn’t win because of crossover support from Democrats - McAuliffe won Democrats 96/4 according to the exit poll! (not that one needs an exit poll to come to that conclusion, a county map will suffice...)

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0

Also, literally no one is arguing that Virginia is "going to become a safe GOP state" - you’re (once again) just making things up here. As you said...

Let's see...

I know it was obviously Trumpkin would win. Terry Mcauliffe running a joke of a campaign, Ayala and Herring not being visible, Virginia being more sensitive and opposed to covid measures compared to other blue states, Youngkin running one of the most disciplined campaigns I have ever seen and campaigning on the right issues. All this while the state Democrats went to far left. 

The Democrats still ended up doing a bit better in VA-Gov 2021 compared to MD-Gov 2014.

...the fact that a two-point win was the best Republicans could manage in this environment against this candidate is hardly a reassuring sign for their long-term prospects in VA.

[jamestroll]

Except that Youngkin didn’t win because of crossover support from Democrats - McAuliffe won Democrats 96/4 according to the exit poll! (not that one needs an exit poll to come to that conclusion, a county map will suffice...)

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0

Also, literally no one is arguing that Virginia is "going to become a safe GOP state" - you’re (once again) just making things up.

I am not making stuff up.

I was told that people who want everyone to stay home until covid is eradicated do not exist. They clearly exist!

I was told that people who said Youngkin would win Loudoun/Pwc and even Fairfax do not exist. They clearly did exist! In fact, they owe everyone an apology for their months and months of spreading a clear lie and sheer stupidity.

It was obvious Youngkin was going to win (fine, I will use his proper name). In fact I argued that Virginia's democratic trend was over stated and I was proven right. But I am not that optimistic for the Virginia GOP if this was the best they could do.

Turnout was high on all sides but higher on the GOP side. But despite that, the Virginia Democrats are in a far better position in the house of delegates compared to the year when Tmac was elected.



Imagine telling someone in November 2013 that Tmac would carry Loudoun by 11 points whole losing statewide in 2021... while that specific locality was the epicenter of all the controversy and often legitimate grievances the GOP had in this election!

[Schiff for Senate]

So it looks like we've got our own Kyrsten Sinema in the Virginia state Senate in the person of Joseph Morrissey of Richmond:

Virginia governor’s embattled nominee appears to get a second chance

Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s embattled nominee for natural resources secretary emerged from an hour-long grilling by a state Senate committee Tuesday with at least one Democrat open to bucking his party to rescue the seemingly doomed Cabinet pick.

“I am very much open to approving his nomination,” Sen. Joseph D. Morrissey (D-Richmond) said of Andrew Wheeler, who served as Environmental Protection Agency chief under President Donald Trump. “Let’s just say that he’s got a fighting chance.”

Wheeler would only need support from one Democrat in the narrowly divided Senate to win confirmation as secretary of natural and historic resources.

Virginia’s General Assembly rarely rejects a governor’s Cabinet nominees, but Democrats and environmentalists expressed outrage this month when Youngkin (R) named Wheeler, a former coal lobbyist who led a rollback of Obama-era environmental regulations under Trump.

Morrissey’s potential support for Wheeler caught some Democrats by surprise, including Senate Majority Leader Richard L. Saslaw (D-Fairfax).

“I haven’t talked with Joe, but when we had polled the whole caucus, all of them said they were opposed,” he said Tuesday evening.

Chap Petersen seems more like the sort of guy who'd do this.

But Joe Morrissey's a massive HP to begin with (he resigned from the HoD under somewhat infamous circumstances), and he's also previously been an Independent. More importantly I don't think the Sinema comparison is correct since Sinema is from a swing state - Morrissey's seat is in one of the bluest cities in VA and he didn't even face a Republican opponent when he was last up, in 2019.

My opinion of him will only further lower if he lets this terrible person join the cabinet.

[Frodo]

So it looks like we've got our own Kyrsten Sinema in the Virginia state Senate in the person of Joseph Morrissey of Richmond:

Virginia governor’s embattled nominee appears to get a second chance

Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s embattled nominee for natural resources secretary emerged from an hour-long grilling by a state Senate committee Tuesday with at least one Democrat open to bucking his party to rescue the seemingly doomed Cabinet pick.

“I am very much open to approving his nomination,” Sen. Joseph D. Morrissey (D-Richmond) said of Andrew Wheeler, who served as Environmental Protection Agency chief under President Donald Trump. “Let’s just say that he’s got a fighting chance.”

Wheeler would only need support from one Democrat in the narrowly divided Senate to win confirmation as secretary of natural and historic resources.

Virginia’s General Assembly rarely rejects a governor’s Cabinet nominees, but Democrats and environmentalists expressed outrage this month when Youngkin (R) named Wheeler, a former coal lobbyist who led a rollback of Obama-era environmental regulations under Trump.

Morrissey’s potential support for Wheeler caught some Democrats by surprise, including Senate Majority Leader Richard L. Saslaw (D-Fairfax).

“I haven’t talked with Joe, but when we had polled the whole caucus, all of them said they were opposed,” he said Tuesday evening.

Chap Petersen seems more like the sort of guy who'd do this.

Maybe (they both have similar voting records on the environment), but perhaps he is the type who prefers to let others take the media spotlight.  

But Joe Morrissey's a massive HP to begin with (he resigned from the HoD under somewhat infamous circumstances), and he's also previously been an Independent. More importantly I don't think the Sinema comparison is correct since Sinema is from a swing state - Morrissey's seat is in one of the bluest cities in VA and he didn't even face a Republican opponent when he was last up, in 2019.

My opinion of him will only further lower if he lets this terrible person join the cabinet.

The reason I picked Senator Kyrsten Sinema as an analogy for him is because we could have gotten a more reliably liberal Democrat in his seat, a point that has been made repeatedly about hers.  

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdkpWmjy/

Just like I predicted Tik Tok kids are really the only ones trying to stop republicans

[jamestroll]

Chap Peterson is my senator and I am very lucky to have him and strongly approve of him.

Except that Youngkin didn’t win because of crossover support from Democrats - McAuliffe won Democrats 96/4 according to the exit poll! (not that one needs an exit poll to come to that conclusion, a county map will suffice...)

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0

Also, literally no one is arguing that Virginia is "going to become a safe GOP state" - you’re (once again) just making things up here. As you said...

Let's see...

I know it was obviously Trumpkin would win. Terry Mcauliffe running a joke of a campaign, Ayala and Herring not being visible, Virginia being more sensitive and opposed to covid measures compared to other blue states, Youngkin running one of the most disciplined campaigns I have ever seen and campaigning on the right issues. All this while the state Democrats went to far left. 

The Democrats still ended up doing a bit better in VA-Gov 2021 compared to MD-Gov 2014.

...the fact that a two-point win was the best Republicans could manage in this environment against this candidate is hardly a reassuring sign for their long-term prospects in VA.

I still think the final results, most of the time in Virginia, will be quite close. There was absolutely a layer of wealthy voters in Nova that voted against Trump but otherwise were Republican and the rurals have trended further right. But still, generically, looks like a 2 to 3 point advantage for the Democrats most of the time.

There is no way Mark Warner can win  by more then five points should the Democrats hold the presidency in 2024.

[jamestroll]

My biggest surprise of granular results last November was not anywhere in Nova. I underestimated the Democrats a bit in Fairfax County (predicted 62 to 63% Dem) but otherwise got the other jurisdictions spot on...

I know the Shenadoah  would swing hard to Youngkin. But of course, I know Nova and Shenandoah quite well. I have only been to Hampton Roads once and Richmond twice.

I was mostly surprised at the weak swings in the Richmond area and that terry mcauliffe still got 46%! in that climate in Virginia Beach. I was honestly expecting a 57 to 42 blow out there.  And the very close races in Virginia Beach for the house of delegates.

yeah.. I think I know how the HoD elections will go in 2023, unless Biden is very unpopular.

But Democrats shunning rural voters is at their own peril. While Virignia seems to have enough urban and suburban voters that a better climate would have probably won it for them... just imagine the Democrats long term prospects in lets say Wisconsin .. if they abandon rural voters.

[DrScholl]

Youngkin's selection of a former Trump administration official as head of the Department of Natural Resources has been rejected by the State Senate.

https://twitter.com/SenLouiseLucas/status/1491124778484527106

[Utah Neolib]

Youngkin's selection of a former Trump administration official as head of the Department of Natural Resources has been rejected by the State Senate.

https://twitter.com/SenLouiseLucas/status/1491124778484527106

Hell yeah. We need to stop giving trump officials extra careers.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I know blue avatars will strongly disagree with this because he’s governing as a republican in a likely D state but I think there’s a lane in the presidential primary for Youngking as a common sense conservative who only fights culture wars that are started by Dems, and additionally can claim credit for ending covid tyranny in the US now that blue state governors are ending mandates

[jamestroll]

I know blue avatars will strongly disagree with this because he’s governing as a republican in a likely D state but I think there’s a lane in the presidential primary for Youngking as a common sense conservative who only fights culture wars that are started by Dems, and additionally can claim credit for ending covid tyranny in the US now that blue state governors are ending mandates

It is a lean Dem state. Not a likely dem state.

[President Johnson]

I know blue avatars will strongly disagree with this because he’s governing as a republican in a likely D state but I think there’s a lane in the presidential primary for Youngking as a common sense conservative who only fights culture wars that are started by Dems, and additionally can claim credit for ending covid tyranny in the US now that blue state governors are ending mandates

Interestingly, a lot of Republican swing state governors have been pretty hard right in recent years (Scott, DeSantis, LePage, Walker etc.).

[_.]

Are there any scientific polls that show what Virginians think of Youngkin?
Not these half-baked bits and pieces of anecdotal evidence?

[Mr. Reactionary]

Are there any scientific polls that show what Virginians think of Youngkin?
Not these half-baked bits and pieces of anecdotal evidence?

No. He hasn't even been governor a month and hasnt done anything other than try to end mandatory masks in schools. All of this "OMG buyers remorse everyone hates him now" nonsense from the hacks is ridiculous. What, because he nominated a conservative no one has even heard of to a cabinet position and the guy wasnt even approved somehow people who voted for him now regret it? Like, seriously, I havent seen anything he's done that would prompt "buyers remorse". This is just hacks being hacks because they are desperate to talk about virginia even though there isnt anything yet to talk about. Again, hes been governor for like 3 weeks. What has he done to chase away scores of voters other than not be a democrat?

[MT Treasurer]

What do you all make of Youngkin's underwhelming showing among Hispanic and Asian voters? According to the exit poll, he underperformed Trump with both grups — obviously these should be taken with a grain of salt given the small sample size, but it’s fairly obvious that the race wouldn’t have been this close if he had done better with non-white voters. Should this be a potential cause for concern for NV/GA Republicans and could it be a data point in favor of the theory that 2012->2016 trends will be a stronger force than 2016->2020 trends in the 2022 elections (which may also be a bad sign for Democrats in the Midwest and New England)?

Obviously one shouldn’t extrapolate too much from one race, but GOP gains in VA were distributed extremely evenly across the state, mostly fueled by gains with white voters (who made up a larger proportion of the electorate than in 2020) and slight inroads into the black vote. I think (please correct me if I’m wrong) precinct analysis confirmed that dramatic Republican gains with Hispanic and Asian voters failed to materialize, which may also explain why Prince William County voted 4 points to the left of Loudoun (after voting 1 point to its left in 2020).