Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

You’ve spent way too much time in the ‘reopen schools’ echo chamber.

No it is a group called Reopen Virginia. I am not as active there anymore since they have been going anti-vaccine.

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia voted 52D-47R for the House of Representatives in 2020, and that was frankly with a bunch of not-very-competent Republican candidates running (Bob Good, Nick Freitas) throughout the state. The state Democratic party has had a bunch of scandals over the past two years and Northam's approvals are weak; moreover, Youngkin will probably be able to outspend McAuliffe.

(Youngkin also fits the mold of the sort of Republican who wins or does well in gubernatorial elections in blue states -- big spender without much of a political record at all running at a Democrat highly affiliated with the state government -- but I don't know that that's actually necessary since VA is double-digits to the right of all of these places).

Anyway, I think D+5 -- which is treading water with 2020 -- would be a good outcome here for Democrats. I agree that McAuliffe is favored -- this is a Leans D state and Youngkin is unproven enough that you could see him crashing and burning -- but I'd put Youngkin's odds of winning at maybe 35-40%.

If Republicans are already on track for a 2010/2014 wave in 2022 by November, then Youngkin will need to win. The environment can change in a year -- in 2013, the reasons for the 2014 wave hadn't really congealed yet -- but Youngkin losing would mean the wave isn't there yet. A narrow loss for Youngkin would still mean they're on track to take the House/Senate, mind, they just wouldn't be doing it very impressively.

If Democrats are on track to hold the House, they should definitely improve off of D+5. Holding steady with Northam/Gillespie would be a very good sign. If McAuliffe wins by double-digits, like some have suggested, it would be a result characteristic of 2022 being a Democratic wave where they might hold the House. (But, again, a year is long enough for things to change).

Did you adjust for Morgan Griffith being unopposed in VA-09?

No, but it doesn't change much since this is a seat where Democrats rarely break 1/3 and are poorly organized in. Assigning an appropriate fraction of Griffith's vote to the Democrats, whether by universal swing from 2018 or 2016, gets you to D+7, though if assume many of those were under-voters (Biden/no vote for House, rather than Biden/House R) it goes to D+6. (National House vote was D+3 -- not sure which side left more seats uncontested, though. By contrast, Virginia was D+10 presidentially while the nation was D+5).

(Basically, Virginia is somewhere 2-5 points left of the US, and getting further left over time. But that's still perfectly winnable for the GOP in a good year, and you'd expect them to take it in a wave. The opposite-side counterpart isn't OH/IA, but somewhere like NC. Which I guess Democrats have had a lot of trouble winning recently, but it isn't unwinnable.)

I agree this is likely competitive, but it has nothing to do with the 2020 US House vote.  The US House vote does not track with presidential results and appears to have long term realignments (there's much stronger evidence than for presidential elections).  From 1948 to 1988, the US House popular vote was more D than the presidential vote every single time except 1964, and since 1992, it has been more R than the presidential vote every single time except 2008.  There are a very significant group of voters who want a Dem president and a GOP House right now.  In VA, these people usually vote Dem for governor.  

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, Chuck Smith is calling for a recount despite the fact the race was decided by more than 1% of weighted votes.

[Skill and Chance]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

An underrated possibility is that R's snag LG and or AG if McAuliffe wins narrowly, but after seeing the 2020 results, I believe there are now 51 HOD districts that are clearly left of the state.  Pretty easy to see them falling to exactly 51 on a bad night, though. 

[jamestroll]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

An underrated possibility is that R's snag LG and or AG if McAuliffe wins narrowly, but after seeing the 2020 results, there are now 51 HOD districts that are clearly left of the state.  Pretty easy to see them falling to exactly 51 on a bad night, though.  

Yes.. the redraw made seat 51 quite strong.

I would be interested to see if the GOP tries to contest VA in 2024 if they manage to win everything in November and retake the state senate in 2023.

[Spectator]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

An underrated possibility is that R's snag LG and or AG if McAuliffe wins narrowly, but after seeing the 2020 results, there are now 51 HOD districts that are clearly left of the state.  Pretty easy to see them falling to exactly 51 on a bad night, though.  

Yes.. the redraw made seat 51 quite strong.

I would be interested to see if the GOP tries to contest VA in 2024 if they manage to win everything in November and retake the state senate in 2023.

Stop being melodramatic. If the GOP wins the governor’s race, it’s a fluke like Democrats winning a random race in Iowa.

[jamestroll]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

An underrated possibility is that R's snag LG and or AG if McAuliffe wins narrowly, but after seeing the 2020 results, there are now 51 HOD districts that are clearly left of the state.  Pretty easy to see them falling to exactly 51 on a bad night, though.  

Yes.. the redraw made seat 51 quite strong.

I would be interested to see if the GOP tries to contest VA in 2024 if they manage to win everything in November and retake the state senate in 2023.

Stop being melodramatic. If the GOP wins the governor’s race, it’s a fluke like Democrats winning a random race in Iowa.

It is not being melodramatic. And contesting a state doesn't mean it will be successful. We all know how success Biden's appearances in Ohio were.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Needless to say, the chances of a GOP upset in November are... slim.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1391816951308161026?s=21

[Duke of York]

Needless to say, the chances of a GOP upset in November are... slim.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1391816951308161026?s=21

Hence why I think democrats keep all three statewide offices and keep the HOD maybe even slightly expand their majority.

[Spectator]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

An underrated possibility is that R's snag LG and or AG if McAuliffe wins narrowly, but after seeing the 2020 results, there are now 51 HOD districts that are clearly left of the state.  Pretty easy to see them falling to exactly 51 on a bad night, though.  

Yes.. the redraw made seat 51 quite strong.

I would be interested to see if the GOP tries to contest VA in 2024 if they manage to win everything in November and retake the state senate in 2023.

Stop being melodramatic. If the GOP wins the governor’s race, it’s a fluke like Democrats winning a random race in Iowa.

It is not being melodramatic. And contesting a state doesn't mean it will be successful. We all know how success Biden's appearances in Ohio were.

It is melodramatic to imply that you think Youngkin and the GOP will sweep the Virginia of 2021. You already made the outlandish suggestion that Youngkin would win easily over anyone not named Terry McAuliffe. Are Democrats gonna win Iowa if Rob Sand becomes the gubernatorial nominee there because he likes to put on his hunting outfit and put on a show for the rural voters there? No. So stop acting like the GOP is going to win here outside of an alleged rapist winning the Democrat nod.

[LabourJersey]

Needless to say, the chances of a GOP upset in November are... slim.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1391816951308161026?s=21

Yeah, I'm pretty baffled by people think Youngkin will be that strong a candidate given the intensity of Virginia's political realignment.

Also I find it interesting people saying he'll "blanket the airwaves nonstop" and that will win him re-election...is that a strategy that can still work for a candidate in 2021 in a state/district that politically leans against them? I think partisanship is a little too strong these days for that to be the sole cause of a victory

[Young Conservative]

Anyway, here's my take on potential GOP Competitiveness. Here are the states Trump won 2016 by a margin similar to Biden's 2020 Virginia Result:

SC - 14.2%
VA - 10.1%
IA - 9.4%
TX - 9%
OH - 8.1%

So unless you think 2022 will be worse for D's than 2018 was for R's...

The national election was almost D+5.That puts Virginia 5 points left of the nation. Arguably, Trump was the worst possible fit for VA, too. Seems to me a state that is at best 5 points left of the nation is perfectly winnable in a Biden admin if he gets a little more unpopular, especially when Youngkin has a turnout operation and Terry Mc is uninspiring at best.

[Duke of York]

Needless to say, the chances of a GOP upset in November are... slim.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1391816951308161026?s=21

Yeah, I'm pretty baffled by people think Youngkin will be that strong a candidate given the intensity of Virginia's political realignment.

Also I find it interesting people saying he'll "blanket the airwaves nonstop" and that will win him re-election...is that a strategy that can still work for a candidate in 2021 in a state/district that politically leans against them? I think partisanship is a little too strong these days for that to be the sole cause of a victory

Another reason why I think this won't be particularly close. TMAC wins by a least six points. I wouldnt be surprised if he gets more than Northam considering how NOVA is growing at lightning speed and the Richmond suburbs are shifting blue rapidly.

[LabourJersey]

Anyway, here's my take on potential GOP Competitiveness. Here are the states Trump won 2016 by a margin similar to Biden's 2020 Virginia Result:

SC - 14.2%
VA - 10.1%
IA - 9.4%
TX - 9%
OH - 8.1%

So unless you think 2022 will be worse for D's than 2018 was for R's...

The national election was almost D+5.That puts Virginia 5 points left of the nation. Arguably, Trump was the worst possible fit for VA, too. Seems to me a state that is at best 5 points left of the nation is perfectly winnable in a Biden admin if he gets a little more unpopular, especially when Youngkin has a turnout operation and Terry Mc is uninspiring at best.

Youngkin is still going to run a very Trumpy campaign--he talks about Dominion machines and stuff like that, no to mention the fact that he'll get and flaunt Trump's endorsement if he wins the nomination. That's not going to work all that well in a state like Virginia.

[Duke of York]

Anyway, here's my take on potential GOP Competitiveness. Here are the states Trump won 2016 by a margin similar to Biden's 2020 Virginia Result:

SC - 14.2%
VA - 10.1%
IA - 9.4%
TX - 9%
OH - 8.1%

So unless you think 2022 will be worse for D's than 2018 was for R's...

The national election was almost D+5.That puts Virginia 5 points left of the nation. Arguably, Trump was the worst possible fit for VA, too. Seems to me a state that is at best 5 points left of the nation is perfectly winnable in a Biden admin if he gets a little more unpopular, especially when Youngkin has a turnout operation and Terry Mc is uninspiring at best.

Youngkin is still going to run a very Trumpy campaign--he talks about Dominion machines and stuff like that, no to mention the fact that he'll get and flaunt Trump's endorsement if he wins the nomination. That's not going to work all that well in a state like Virginia.

That's going to turn a lot of people off and isn't a winning strategy at all. it could even a be a drag down ballot.

[Oryxslayer]

Youngkin needs just 30% of Chase's weighted votes to go to him to win.

[Lief 🗽]

Chase officially eliminated, RIP FF.

Let's hope our beautiful Super PACs and other dark money organizations are ready to nuke this Youngkin guy before he nukes us.

[Roll Roons]

It's official:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391931893013229568

[jamestroll]

It's official:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391931893013229568

I still rank it as lean D.

As I stated earlier in this thread, I had birth data incorrect for both TMac and Youngkin .. but when i enter in corrected birth data, the astrology does look better for McAufflie. With the incorrect data, Youngkin would have been heavily favored.

[Chips]

Lean D.

[Chips]

The last thing we need to see on the matter is whether Chase will now actually run an independent bid as she threatened to do so if she lost.

[Continential]

Unless if Trump endorses Chase if she runs as a indy, she'll get at most 5%.

[Oryxslayer]

Unless if Trump endorses Chase if she runs as a indy, she'll get at most 5%.

And that would be more than enough.

Anyway, Snyder conceded. On to the next contest.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Lean D.

*Mic drop*

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'd rate it Likely D. Closer to Safe D than Lean D.